# Is there really any \*real world\* way modern society could collapse back to pure survival levels? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 27, 2016, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172 "2016-08-27T18:45:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2016, 11:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172/41 "2016-08-28T23:32:02Z")
> [@chacoguy](#): > > Coronal Mass Ejection. > [@Steophan](#): > > Sounds kinky. Well, yes, we’d be taking it in the behind from the sun. You might say that the sun would be shining where it never used to. > [@Dale\_Sams](#): > > Have we talked about solar flares wiping out our electronics? Just the above. ---
**Author:** ![Dale\_Sams](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/779978/32.png) [@Dale\_Sams](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dale_Sams)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2016, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172/42 "2016-08-28T23:33:42Z")
I mean, lets lay out the specifics here. How and where is this device delivered? Is a North Korea sub on a suicide mission launching an attack? A infiltrator with a ground device? Does he climb Mount Ranier and set it off? Good luck hauling that puppy up there. I tried to find a legit Youtube clip on the possibility of a realistic EMP attack and it was like googling “Horse dick” hoping to find jockies fighting. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2016, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172/43 "2016-08-28T23:42:04Z")
> [@Dale\_Sams](#): > > Except that an emp off the coast …from NK is going to affect a smallish area. The example you are referring to is the entire usa You don’t think they’d consider knocking a couple of states into the Electrical Grid Stone Age and severely damaging the US Economy a huge blow against the Evil USA? :dubious: I consider that sort of thing far more likely and a complete multi-layer EMP against the USA. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2016, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172/44 "2016-08-28T23:43:42Z")
> [@chacoguy](#): > > Coronal Mass Ejection. [It happened in 2012](http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/23jul_superstorm/), except it hit Earth orbit after the Earth moved on. ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2016, 11:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172/45 "2016-08-28T23:52:27Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > [It happened in 2012](http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-nasa/2014/23jul_superstorm/), except it hit Earth orbit after the Earth moved on. You make it sound like they’re rare, but they’re actually fairly common. From [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronal_mass_ejection): > [@](#): > > Near solar maxima, the Sun produces about three CMEs every day, whereas near solar minima, there is about one CME every five days. Fortunately the Earth has managed to dodge them for the last 150 years. But one did hit the Earth back in [1859](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carrington_event). ---
**Author:** ![kopek](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kopek/32/337_2.png) [@kopek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kopek)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2016, 11:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172/46 "2016-08-28T23:53:09Z")
> [@Chimera](#): > > Eh, the metro area I live in would still have @1 million people. But which people and what skills do they bring to the table to hold things together while we rebuild? That is why the possibility of a serious pandemic and/or bio warfare still gives me some concern. We’re just too reliant on others to provide for us; heading into what we would call a more “Third World” life-style would probably break us to pieces. And I could see that happening as early as 30% dead especially if they all die off in fast order - say a month or two. ---
**Author:** ![Bill\_Door](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/50afbb/32.png) [@Bill\_Door](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bill_Door)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2016, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172/47 "2016-08-29T00:08:10Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > Well, yes, we’d be taking it in the behind from the sun. You might say that the sun would be shining where it never used to. > > Just the above. Yeah, look up the Carrington Event of 1859 and think about what would happen it it happens tomorrow. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2016, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172/48 "2016-08-29T00:28:08Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Did you read the official US government reports I linked to? The ones that talk about it taking multiple \*years \*to begin to restore electricity to the bulk of the country? > > Comprehensively destroying Seattle is a pinprick compared to taking out the entire electrical generation & transmission system of the country. . . . I disagree with both of these conclusions. I’m not going to go “expert shopping” to find experts who agree with me, but I’m completely sure I could if I wanted to. I would hold that we’d have our electricity up again in days, and our communications in weeks. There would be some loss of life, but not as much as if a city were taken out directly. And, again, it doesn’t benefit the bad guys. If they can deliver a nuclear warhead that way, why would they limit themselves? If they hate America enough to wipe out our high-level networks, why wouldn’t they hate us enough to destroy Salt Lake City or San Antonio? Anyway, sorry for the highjack. Not really relevant, I guess, to the OP. Such an attack would not cause a world-wide social collapse, only a grievous economic recession. ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2016, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172/49 "2016-08-29T00:32:39Z")
> [@Bill\_Door](#): > > Yeah, look up the Carrington Event of 1859 and think about what would happen it it happens tomorrow. “In June 2013, a joint venture from researchers at Lloyd’s of London and Atmospheric and Environmental Research (AER) in the United States used data from the Carrington Event to estimate the current cost of a similar event to the U.S. alone at $0.6–2.6 trillion.” Low end, $600 billion. Lots of equipment to replace, which might be slow coming for a world-wide event. High end, about 15.5% of GDP (comparing 2013 to 2013 numbers). Some sources claim an EMP will destroy all electronics if they aren’t in a faraday cage, but those are the ones selling something. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2016, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172/50 "2016-08-29T01:44:42Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > Depending on whether the pandemic was selective or not. If its effects were evenly distributed, there would still be enough smart people to keep things running somewhat smoothly. On the upside, there would be a lot less bad television. If it’s evenly distributed. If it’s like the 1918 flu and goes after the young, healthy breeding-age people like that pandemic did, we’re much more screwed than something that hits the elderly hard. ---
**Author:** ![Dale\_Sams](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/779978/32.png) [@Dale\_Sams](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dale_Sams)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2016, 3:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172/51 "2016-08-29T03:06:22Z")
> [@Trinopus](#): > > I disagree with both of these conclusions. I’m not going to go “expert shopping” to find experts who agree with me, but I’m completely sure I could if I wanted to. > > I would hold that we’d have our electricity up again in days, and our communications in weeks. There would be some loss of life, but not as much as if a city were taken out directly. > > And, again, it doesn’t benefit the bad guys. If they can deliver a nuclear warhead that way, why would they limit themselves? If they hate America enough to wipe out our high-level networks, why wouldn’t they hate us enough to destroy Salt Lake City or San Antonio? > > Anyway, sorry for the highjack. Not really relevant, I guess, to the OP. Such an attack would not cause a world-wide social collapse, only a grievous economic recession. FWIW (and it may not be much) an _Ice Storm_ knocked out power in NE Oklahoma a few years back. It took 2 weeks+ to get the power on. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2016, 4:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172/52 "2016-08-29T04:25:45Z")
> [@eschereal](#): > > Depending on whether the pandemic was selective or not. If its effects were evenly distributed, there would still be enough smart people to keep things running somewhat smoothly. On the upside, there would be a lot less bad television. > [@Flyer](#): > > And yes, it would cause widespread fear and chaos. Western society has long since forgotten how to live without modern conveniences. > [@Chimera](#): > > Eh, the metro area I live in would still have @1 million people. Sure, there’d be a short term shock and period of adjustment, and a period of recovery involving mass burials and figuring out who is still alive and which companies remain operational. All of these betray a lack of understanding of how modern economies work and the interdependence of the world markets and economies. In 2003, the EU issued the [Restriction of Hazardous Substances Directive](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Restriction_of_Hazardous_Substances_Directive) which banned certain substances, including lead, in products sold in EU countries. Companies were given three years to prepare. I worked for a US electronics manufacturer at the time, as the general manager of the Japanese branch office. Our problem was with the lead, and specifically lead used in solder and soldered components. It was a nightmare, even with three years to prepare. We had to discontinue popular products because there weren’t any lead-free substitutes available. Products had to be redesigned because the new components had different specs. In the aftermath of the Fukushima tsunami and nuclear accident, Japanese car manufacturers had difficulties because key components were manufactured in the region affected. Both of these problems were limited in scope and did not not have the same impact which a larger problem would cause. A world-wide event on this magnitude would destroy the free market. Period. Manufacturing would quickly grind to a halt, spare parts would not be available, and there would not be sufficient qualified repair personnel to keep the current infrastructure in place and working. Modern economies are not like the Middle Ages which could absorb the loss of up to 80% of some areas during the plague simply because almost everything was grown, built or manufactured locally. Things could be scaled down and even skilled jobs weren’t that difficult to fill. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2016, 5:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172/53 "2016-08-29T05:25:27Z")
> [@Dale\_Sams](#): > > FWIW (and it may not be much) an _Ice Storm_ knocked out power in NE Oklahoma a few years back. It took 2 weeks+ to get the power on. Okay…I may have been too optimistic… In Googling the topic, I found one guy who said that, if an enemy really wanted to knock down our electricity, they could just sneak saboteurs out to the desert and blow up some of the big transmission lines. I can attest, from years of driving desert routes, many of those big towers don’t even have a fence around the base. You can walk right up to 'em. One guy with a few sticks of dynamite could disconnect the link between, say, Yuma and San Diego. Dark time in the old town tonight! ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2016, 12:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172/54 "2016-08-29T12:30:53Z")
Towers are easy to replace. Just get some standard girders out there and assemble another one. Then restring standard wire & standard insulators. It only gets difficult to repair when the bad guys (or an ice storm) take out lots of them in a local area and you don’t have sufficient supplies or crews on hand to do the whole job immediately. The problem w the EMP attack is that it will burn out lots of the transformers installed in the long-haul switchyards and in the power plants themselves. Unlike the transformers in your local distribution substation, these are not standardized units. They last essentially indefinitely and so each one is a custom one-off built according to the state of the art at the time the station was built. And since they (almost) never wear out in normal use, there are no (or at least very, very few) spares sitting around. When somebody needs to build a new power station or long haul transmission line or refurbish / upgrade an existing one they custom design then order the transformers they need. Which take 1 to 2 \*years \*to be built and delivered. Only a handful of factories worldwide make these things and they’re pretty high tech inside. Like everything else in modern economics, global factory capacity is closely matched to current global baseline demand for new units. Which is a hundred or so per year. Now under those supply parameters try quickly replacing even 20% of the tens of thousands of these things installed in the US. Hint: it’ll take years, not weeks, to make even a small dent in the outage. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2016, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172/55 "2016-08-29T15:36:19Z")
And this also brings us to the problem that all of this will have to be done without the power grid. if the power grid goes down, it’s going to be extremely problematic to build anything. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2016, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172/56 "2016-08-29T21:56:56Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Towers are easy to replace. Just get some standard girders out there and assemble another one. Then restring standard wire & standard insulators. . . . Yeah, but it’s good for several hours, and for a big city, that’s hefty damage. (Also, it would panic Congress into mandating security for power lines, and that would be hella expensive.) ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2016, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172/57 "2016-08-29T22:10:44Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > A bigger problem would be the general breakdown of society. When the death rate passed 30% people would stop showing up for work and try to run or hide from contagion. At a 70% death rate the question would be whether there was any organized society left for people to rejoin after the pandemic burnt out. I’ve been asked more than once, “So, if anything like that happened, where would you want to go - Vegas or Boulder?” My answer is, “Neither. I would want to be one of the first people to die, so early in the epidemic that my name would be recorded.” Even a pandemic that killed 0.6% of the population and left 99.4% of us alive would cause significant disruption of the status quo, especially if it cut an even swath across age demographics. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2016, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172/58 "2016-08-29T22:16:12Z")
> [@Dale\_Sams](#): > > There is no way any country or person or group aside from Russia, China or our allies could execute a massive EMP strike against the US. > > Have we talked about solar flares wiping out our electronics? > > There’s also the effect of losing all satellites being interpreted by a person or machine as a nuclear attack. Like this? > **[Carrington Event](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_storm_of_1859)** > > The Carrington Event was the most intense geomagnetic storm in recorded history, peaking on 1–2 September 1859 during solar cycle 10. It created strong auroral displays that were reported globally and caused sparking and even fires in telegraph stations. The geomagnetic storm was most likely the result of a coronal mass ejection (CME) from the Sun colliding with Earth's magnetosphere. > The geomagnetic storm was associated with a very bright solar flare on 1 September 1859. It was observed and ... ---
**Author:** ![Dale\_Sams](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/779978/32.png) [@Dale\_Sams](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dale_Sams)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2016, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172/59 "2016-08-29T22:26:53Z")
Lets also not forget that an EMP attack would knock out like 99% of cars and computers…in addition to the power grid. ---
**Author:** ![thirdname](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/d07c76/32.png) [@thirdname](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thirdname)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2016, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172/60 "2016-08-29T23:08:02Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Towers are easy to replace. Just get some standard girders out there and assemble another one. Then restring standard wire & standard insulators. It only gets difficult to repair when the bad guys (or an ice storm) take out lots of them in a local area and you don’t have sufficient supplies or crews on hand to do the whole job immediately. > > The problem w the EMP attack is that it will burn out lots of the transformers installed in the long-haul switchyards and in the power plants themselves. Unlike the transformers in your local distribution substation, these are not standardized units. They last essentially indefinitely and so each one is a custom one-off built according to the state of the art at the time the station was built. And since they (almost) never wear out in normal use, there are no (or at least very, very few) spares sitting around. > > When somebody needs to build a new power station or long haul transmission line or refurbish / upgrade an existing one they custom design then order the transformers they need. Which take 1 to 2 \*years \*to be built and delivered. Only a handful of factories worldwide make these things and they’re pretty high tech inside. Like everything else in modern economics, global factory capacity is closely matched to current global baseline demand for new units. Which is a hundred or so per year. > > Now under those supply parameters try quickly replacing even 20% of the tens of thousands of these things installed in the US. Hint: it’ll take years, not weeks, to make even a small dent in the outage. Apparently some of the power companies are getting together to stockpile some spare transformers. Probably not enough to deal with a large EMP attack or solar event, but at least enough to deal with a terrorist attack. [http://www.wsj.com/articles/utilities-seek-to-stockpile-essential-parts-for-disasters-1460076194](http://www.wsj.com/articles/utilities-seek-to-stockpile-essential-parts-for-disasters-1460076194) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-really-any-real-world-way-modern-society-could-collapse-back-to-pure-survival-levels/764172.md?page=4)