# Is there room for wind turbine power to keep declining in price? **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [January 13, 2020, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-room-for-wind-turbine-power-to-keep-declining-in-price/846337 "2020-01-13T04:35:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 8\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2020, 4:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-room-for-wind-turbine-power-to-keep-declining-in-price/846337/1 "2020-01-13T04:35:58Z")
Wind was $70 per MWH in 2009, now is $20 per MWH. > **[Average US Wind Price Falls to $20 per Megawatt-Hour](https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/us-wind-prices-20-megawatt-hour)** > > Wind prices have dropped by $50 per megawatt-hour in eight years, new DOE research shows. > [@](#): > > The report calculates a decline in average wind prices from about $70 per megawatt-hour in 2009, to $20 per megawatt-hour in 2017 — a $50 decline in an eight-year period. > > While the drop was less pronounced in the U.S.’ most resource-rich wind zone — the prices in the middle of the country fell from $55 per megawatt-hour to a bit below $20 per megawatt-hour in that same time — the overall price declines are drastic. > > Bigger turbines have enhanced wind project performance, while lower turbine pricing continues to push down installed project costs. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2017 was $1,610 per kilowatt, down $795 per kilowatt from the peak in 2009, according to the DOE report. > **[Offshore Wind Prices Have Fallen 75% Since 2014 – Here's How To De-Risk...](https://www.utilitydive.com/news/offshore-wind-prices-have-fallen-75-since-2014-heres-how-to-de-risk-pro/543384/)** > > Offshore wind could be America's biggest bipartisan clean energy success story in the next two years. But how policymakers design related policies will determine how fast project costs fall, writes Energy Innovation's Mike O'Boyle. > [@](#): > > But how policymakers design offshore wind policies will determine how fast project costs fall. While still nascent, United States offshore wind project costs have fallen 75% since the 2014 Block Island Wind Farm in Rhode Island, in contracts for 1.2 GW of projects awarded for the next five years. Offshore wind is following a similar learning curve to other clean power technologies, particularly onshore wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) Which is cheaper than fossil fuels, which is nice. However, are prices going to keep declining? Will they go down another 70% in the 2020s? Maybe instead of costing $20 per MWH, maybe get down to $5 per MWH by 2030? If so, are there ideas on what advances will help with the technology? ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2020, 6:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-room-for-wind-turbine-power-to-keep-declining-in-price/846337/2 "2020-01-13T06:25:19Z")
There are economies of scale: it is cheaper on a per unit basis to make 5,000 of something than 500 of something. ---
**Author:** ![Melbourne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b5e925/32.png) [@Melbourne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melbourne)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2020, 9:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-room-for-wind-turbine-power-to-keep-declining-in-price/846337/3 "2020-01-13T09:47:17Z")
At the moment, they are continuing to make taller and taller windmills. There is no immediate or absolute limit in sight. I don’t know of any new technology, so I expect production prices to continue to drop, but not as dramatically. ---
**Author:** ![excavating\_for\_a\_mind](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e8c25b/32.png) [@excavating\_for\_a\_mind](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/excavating_for_a_mind)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2020, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-room-for-wind-turbine-power-to-keep-declining-in-price/846337/4 "2020-01-13T13:34:11Z")
As the price of a commodity is based on supply and demand (that is, what the market will bear as opposed to the cost of manufacture), I doubt you will see much more of a drop. Baring technological advancement, the industry is likely to consolidate and grow by larger companies buying the small ones, providing price stability (corporate-speak for modest price increases). Significant technological advancements are unlikely as research can be very expensive (which is the reason for the high price initially) and to remain competitive in the current market, the current technology appears to be sufficient. Aside from the cost of the wind turbine is the cost of the infrastructure (transmission and storage). Reduction in these costs are likely with technology, lowering the cost of all renewables, not just wind. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2020, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-room-for-wind-turbine-power-to-keep-declining-in-price/846337/5 "2020-01-13T14:33:55Z")
I suspect the price will eventually bottom out, as the technology becomes more mature, and there are fewer and fewer good wind farm locations available. Not sure when that’ll be though. The big question, AFAIK, is around storage, as well as how far wind can be expanded- are there enough economical and adequate sites to place wind farms on to produce enough power to displace natural gas and coal? Storage may be the kicker; what do you do when the wind isn’t blowing, or there are short-term spikes in power demand? Right now, fossil fuels can be relatively easily ramped up to produce more power, but that’s not so with wind(or solar). ---
**Author:** ![dtilque](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d6d6ee/32.png) [@dtilque](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dtilque)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2020, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-room-for-wind-turbine-power-to-keep-declining-in-price/846337/6 "2020-01-13T15:00:53Z")
> [@bump](#): > > Storage may be the kicker; what do you do when the wind isn’t blowing, or there are short-term spikes in power demand? Right now, fossil fuels can be relatively easily ramped up to produce more power, but that’s not so with wind(or solar). Minor nitpick. Not all fossil fuel generation easily ramps up and down. Gas does, coal does not. As far as storage, right now they’re using battery storage to replace what are called gas peaker plants. These are the power plants that do the ramping up/down to allow for variation in demand from minute to minute. Other gas plants don’t ramp up and down so easily. But batteries ramp up and down even easier than gas. Batteries and pumped hydro are also being used to extend the supply of solar power into the evening. And of course, they can be used to bridge the variations in wind power. ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2020, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-room-for-wind-turbine-power-to-keep-declining-in-price/846337/7 "2020-01-13T19:21:21Z")
> [@dtilque](#): > > Minor nitpick. Not all fossil fuel generation easily ramps up and down. Gas does, coal does not. > > As far as storage, right now they’re using battery storage to replace what are called gas peaker plants. These are the power plants that do the ramping up/down to allow for variation in demand from minute to minute. Other gas plants don’t ramp up and down so easily. But batteries ramp up and down even easier than gas. Batteries and pumped hydro are also being used to extend the supply of solar power into the evening. And of course, they can be used to bridge the variations in wind power. Oh, sure. I just meant that fossil fuel plants have _some_ latitude in how much they generate- they’re not all run at 100% of rated capacity all the time, a capability wind doesn’t have- it’s either blowing adequately or it isn’t. ---
**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2020, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-there-room-for-wind-turbine-power-to-keep-declining-in-price/846337/8 "2020-01-13T22:15:34Z")
There’s still plenty of places where you can put turbines and generate electricity economically. The issue that will become more common down the line is getting that power to where it can be used. All sources have this problem in one form or another. With wind all those turbines scattered around need to connect into the grid in a cost effective way. Our grid sucks. Texas is all by itself and has immense potential for wind power that can be sold all over the place. But they are bumping into limits all too soon. A good grid, with a lot of interstate things like [Pacific DC Intertie](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pacific_DC_Intertie) also helps with that stupid “the wind doesn’t blow all the time” nonsense. You move the power from where the wind is blowing to where it isn’t. Storage is far less of a problem than people think.