# Is Trump very very strong favourite in presidential race? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 26, 2016, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-trump-very-very-strong-favourite-in-presidential-race/747205 "2016-02-26T15:27:04Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 9\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![purplehearingaid](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/7bcc69/32.png) [@purplehearingaid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/purplehearingaid)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2016, 7:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-trump-very-very-strong-favourite-in-presidential-race/747205/21 "2016-02-27T19:04:20Z")
> [@truthSeeker2](#): > > To his supporters - I don’t wish to jinx him. > > Found this article that says he has 97-99% chances at the point - > [http://www.infowars.com/political-science-professor-trump-has-97-99-chance-of-becoming-president/](http://www.infowars.com/political-science-professor-trump-has-97-99-chance-of-becoming-president/) > > Would you agree? Are the chances so high? Jinx please ! ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2016, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-trump-very-very-strong-favourite-in-presidential-race/747205/22 "2016-02-27T19:14:20Z")
Trump? Strong favorite? He might be crushed in the biggest landslide America has seen since 1984. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2016, 8:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-trump-very-very-strong-favourite-in-presidential-race/747205/23 "2016-02-27T20:24:09Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Trump? Strong favorite? > He might be crushed in the biggest landslide America has seen since 1984. Or not. My take: [http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19136145&postcount=2054](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=19136145&postcount=2054) ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2016, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-trump-very-very-strong-favourite-in-presidential-race/747205/24 "2016-02-28T03:01:26Z")
His chances are much better than I want to admit. And as long as he only has to win pluralities, rather than majorities, he’s going to rack up Republican delegates. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2016, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-trump-very-very-strong-favourite-in-presidential-race/747205/25 "2016-02-28T03:13:28Z")
I wonder what his success (so far) means for future elections; will the Republican Party return to the days when the candidate was chosen in smoky rooms at the national convention? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2016, 3:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-trump-very-very-strong-favourite-in-presidential-race/747205/26 "2016-02-28T03:16:11Z")
We already did this. [Thread about the same prediction by the same professor.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=785296) ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2016, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-trump-very-very-strong-favourite-in-presidential-race/747205/27 "2016-02-28T03:18:21Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > We already did this. [Thread about the same prediction by the same professor.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=785296) Or “did this again” (this thread predates the one you linked to) ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2016, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-trump-very-very-strong-favourite-in-presidential-race/747205/28 "2016-02-28T03:47:13Z")
Anyone opining here who hasn’t taken [my poll](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=785373) on the subject, please come do so! ---
**Author:** ![Captain\_Amazing](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6de8d8/32.png) [@Captain\_Amazing](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Captain_Amazing)\ **Post date:** [February 28, 2016, 4:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-trump-very-very-strong-favourite-in-presidential-race/747205/29 "2016-02-28T04:40:19Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > Wait - how can this dude’s electoral model have accurately predicted every election since 1912? I wouldn’t be surprised if this cat has tenure at SUNY, but has he had tenure for 102 years? That’s kind of misleading. The guy’s model uses data that goes back to 1912, and the model he’s constructed fits the elections back to 1912. Here’s his actual paper, btw: > **[The Primary Model](http://primarymodel.com/)** > > primary model is a scientific model of forecasting election results. The Primary Model forecasts presidential elections with great accuracy. Author of The Primary Model, Helmut Norpoth. Political Scientist and Professor at Stony Brook University. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/is-trump-very-very-strong-favourite-in-presidential-race/747205.md?page=1)