Isaac Asimov [death likened to crossing a bridge under fire from an archer]

[Chronos]

Irrelevant now that it’s been definitively answered, but I remembered that essay, too.

[Bryan_Ekers]

@The_Other_Waldo_Pepper

THE SLOWLY MOVING FINGER

Seriously, are we not doing “phrasing” any more?

[Steve_MB]

As I recall, the point Asimov was making with the analogy is that our various advances in medicine, sanitation, etc have bollixed the Grim Reaper “archer’s” aim in the beginning and middle stages of the bridge, but not changed the fact that he gets everybody before they make it all the way to the other side (representing what appears to be the basic limit of longevity even with perfect luck in the genetic and life lotteries).

[Tim_T-Bonham.net]

@Nightfall1

Every newborn starts at one end of a bridge and they begin to walk across. Death is an archer at the other end and he shoots arrows toward the walkers. He hits very few as they begin to walk but the closer they walk toward the other side the archer hits more and more, his aim getting better. No one ever makes it to the other side.

But really, it’s a very inaccurate analogy.
It would imply that the death rate of humans is linear, increasing only with age. But in fact, there is a huge spike in death for infants. Then it decreases, and stays low until disease & age start to take a toll. And it isn’t linear through adulthood; there are significant (and increasing) jumps every few years starting about age 50.

(Also, Death’s aim doesn’t get better; the shots get easier as the targets are closer. So even within the analogy itself it isn’t accurate.) Asimov was allowing his wonderful writing ability to override his scientific knowledge here.

[Shmendrik]

@t-bonham@scc.net

But really, it’s a very inaccurate analogy.
It would imply that the death rate of humans is linear, increasing only with age. But in fact, there is a huge spike in death for infants. Then it decreases, and stays low until disease & age start to take a toll. And it isn’t linear through adulthood; there are significant (and increasing) jumps every few years starting about age 50.

He doubles down on the inaccuracy when he says that life expectancy for primitive humans was 18, and maybe 40 in the middle ages: " In medieval England, the life expectancy is estimated to have been 35, so that if you did reach the age of 40 you were a revered sage." Well, no. If you reached 20, you probably had a pretty good chance of reaching 40.

[hajario]

@IvoryTowerDenizen

Paging Asimovian!

Ha. I just now realized what that user name means.

[DesertDog]

The essay was one of 399 printed in Fantasy and Science Fiction magazine.

@wiki

Fantasy and Science Fiction invited Asimov to continue his regular nonfiction column, begun in the now-folded bimonthly companion magazine Venture Science Fiction Magazine. The first of 399 monthly F&SF columns appeared in November 1958, until his terminal illness. These columns, periodically collected into books by Doubleday, gave Asimov a reputation as a “Great Explainer” of science; he described them as his only popular science writing in which he never had to assume complete ignorance of the subjects on the part of his readers.

I’ve read it but I don’t remember whether it was in one of the book collections or the magazine. I always hoped we’d be at WorldCon together so I could lumber up to him and say, “I’ve been reading you ever since I learned to read; and I’ve collected all the stuff you wrote before I learned to read and I’ve read that, too,” but alas, about the time I could afford WorldCon with any regularity, he’d stopped attending due to his illness.

[Elendil_s_Heir]

@Darren_Garrison

A bit melon-collie, though…

Is that a dog who likes breakfast fruit?