# ISIS Dabiq Prophecy **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 9, 2015, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-dabiq-prophecy/739987 "2015-12-09T21:29:44Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 13\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2015, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-dabiq-prophecy/739987/1 "2015-12-09T21:29:44Z")
[Some background here.](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/08/world/middleeast/us-strategy-seeks-to-avoid-isis-prophecy.html?_r=0) I’m interested in thoughts on what would happen if the US invaded Syria, headed straight for Dabiq, conquered the city, planted our flag there, and built a massive base. ISIS has pretty much gone all-in on how that’s going to bring on the apocalypse. But when the apocalypse doesn’t happen, then what? Does ISIS and its insane ideology lose credibility? Does the US invasion of Dabiq itself constitute a major recruiting coup for ISIS? If yes to both, how do they weigh against each other? I’m not by any stretch advocating this. Just curious what y’all’s thoughts are. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2015, 9:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-dabiq-prophecy/739987/2 "2015-12-09T21:43:45Z")
My guess: same thing that happens when televangelists predict the end of the world on a certain day. When it doesn’t happen, that prophecy is replaced with one that is WAY better. You don’t have to admit that you were wrong about the first prophecy… say, why are you asking all these questions about that prophecy, when I’ve got a way more new and important one over here? ---
**Author:** ![TheSeaOtter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ed655f/32.png) [@TheSeaOtter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheSeaOtter)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2015, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-dabiq-prophecy/739987/3 "2015-12-09T21:46:23Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > My guess: same thing that happens when televangelists predict the end of the world on a certain day. When it doesn’t happen, that prophecy is replaced with one that is WAY better. You don’t have to admit that you were wrong about the first prophecy… say, why are you asking all these questions about that prophecy, when I’ve got a way more new and important one over here? Yeah, pretty much that. I mean, if you had a battle at Dabiq and the Apocalypse didn’t come, clearly that wasn’t the battle foretold. You need a bigger battle! You’ll get 'em next time! ---
**Author:** ![Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/do_not_taunt/32/2968_2.png) [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Do_Not_Taunt)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2015, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-dabiq-prophecy/739987/4 "2015-12-09T21:54:16Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > My guess: same thing that happens when televangelists predict the end of the world on a certain day. When it doesn’t happen, that prophecy is replaced with one that is WAY better. You don’t have to admit that you were wrong about the first prophecy… say, why are you asking all these questions about that prophecy, when I’ve got a way more new and important one over here? Maybe. Though I think the success of that strategy is moving on from the group you’ve already fooled to a new group who is simply ignorant of the previous prophecy. ISIS is so big, so well-known, and and made such a big deal out of this prophecy (even their English-language magazine is called ‘Dabiq’) that I don’t think they’d be able to pull this off. > [@TheSeaOtter](#): > > Yeah, pretty much that. I mean, if you had a battle at Dabiq and the Apocalypse didn’t come, clearly that wasn’t the battle foretold. You need a bigger battle! You’ll get 'em next time! Maybe. You don’t think they’d lose _any_ credibility when the Apocalypse doesn’t happen the first time? I’ll admit I don’t have a great understanding what motivates your average ISIS recruit, but joining an organization that looks foolish doesn’t seem to be consistent with what they want. ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2015, 10:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-dabiq-prophecy/739987/5 "2015-12-09T22:09:59Z")
My guess is that a pretty good number of ISIL recruits probably don’t care about doomsday. I would not underestimate the number of idiots who are in it for excitement and bloodlust, as opposed to being totally ideologically indoctrinated in one strand of dogma. ---
**Author:** ![Othello1](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/5daacb/32.png) [@Othello1](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Othello1)\ **Post date:** [December 9, 2015, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-dabiq-prophecy/739987/6 "2015-12-09T23:28:48Z")
TFW their prophecy turns out like they said ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-dabiq-prophecy/739987/7 "2015-12-10T01:40:47Z")
The Seventh Day Adventists set a date for the end of of the world something like five times before they got smart enough to stick to “any day now,” and they are still around. One of the great things about prophesies is that since they are basically just made up, you always have the option to just make something else up if you need to. Followers of apocalyptic death cults, by definition, don’t tend to apply a ton of critical thinking to the matter. I think the role of this particular belief is overstated, perhaps by people trying to look for some hope that ISIS can be cleanly defeated-- as if this is the Achilles Heel that can make the problem go away. The reality is that ISIS’s adaptability to circumstances is exactly what got them where they are right now, and if they need to adapt again, they will. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 4:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-dabiq-prophecy/739987/8 "2015-12-10T04:44:51Z")
Apparently ISIS is now telling new recruits to travel to Libya instead of Syria and have a backup plan to make Sirte their government base if Raqqa is taken from them. > **[ISIS is preparing a 'backup' capital in case its major center in Syria falls](https://www.businessinsider.com/isis-sirte-libya-2015-11)** > > ISIS is looking to Libya as a potential back-up option to base its operations from as a US-led coalition continues hitting Raqqa, Syria. Guess even if Dabiq is taken back from them then can argue that they’ll win it back again some day in the future and THAT battle is the one that will bring about the apocalypse. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-dabiq-prophecy/739987/9 "2015-12-10T05:20:15Z")
Analyzing this purely in terms of the prophecy, then I think this would actually reinforce the message. The occasional car bomb or whatever would be sufficient to claim that there was an ongoing conflict in Dabiq, so Come join ISIS, the final battle is underway, and will escalate any day now… (I say “purely in terms of the prophecy” because I think overall recruitment _may_ go down in the OP scenario, but for reasons other than a failed prophecy). ---
**Author:** ![even\_sven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/dfb087/32.png) [@even\_sven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/even_sven)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 9:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-dabiq-prophecy/739987/10 "2015-12-10T09:50:52Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > Analyzing this purely in terms of the prophecy, then I think this would actually reinforce the message. > The occasional car bomb or whatever would be sufficient to claim that there was an ongoing conflict in Dabiq, so Come join ISIS, the final battle is underway, and will escalate any day now… > > (I say “purely in terms of the prophecy” because I think overall recruitment _may_ go down in the OP scenario, but for reasons other than a failed prophecy). Also true. A prophecy of violence in the Middle East is usually a pretty sure bet. And you’ve got an inside hand when you are actually causing a chunk of they violence. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 10:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-dabiq-prophecy/739987/11 "2015-12-10T10:03:45Z")
We should totally do this. What cold possibly go wrong? ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 10:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-dabiq-prophecy/739987/12 "2015-12-10T10:21:14Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > We should totally do this. What cold possibly go wrong? I vote we let Russia do this and watch what happens. ---
**Author:** ![up\_the\_junction](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/f1d935/32.png) [@up\_the\_junction](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/up_the_junction)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 10:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-dabiq-prophecy/739987/13 "2015-12-10T10:26:25Z")
> [@Do\_Not\_Taunt](#): > > I’m interested in thoughts on what would happen if the US invaded Syria, headed straight for Dabiq, conquered the city, planted our flag there, and built a massive base. ISIS has pretty much gone all-in on how that’s going to bring on the apocalypse. But when the apocalypse doesn’t happen, then what? Does ISIS and its insane ideology lose credibility? Does the US invasion of Dabiq itself constitute a major recruiting coup for ISIS? If yes to both, how do they weigh against each other? You know how this goes already surely? Shock and awe, you remember that? It isn’t about invasion it’s about (a) occupation and (b) the vacuum invasion leaves behind. Both those things the US lose at, time and time again. Badly. Hence where we are now.