# ISIS in the Middle East is growing **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [June 10, 2014, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473 "2014-06-10T14:45:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 16
**Author:** ![Steken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e274bd/32.png) [@Steken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steken)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2014, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473/301 "2014-08-11T14:29:44Z")
> [@blindboyard](#): > > Meanwhile Maliki has started a coup against the President of Iraq to keep himself in office. … Aaaaaaand the President has [retaliated by firing Maliki and appointing Haider al-Abadi to take the reins in his stead](http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/12/world/middleeast/iraq.html). Pretty sure Maliki won’t turn the other cheek, so look out for some Shi’ite-on-Shi’ite violence in the next coupla days… > [@tagos](#): > > Grandson of Muhammed would be my guess. He’s one of the cool kids for both strands. Cheerio, thanks! ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2014, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473/302 "2014-08-11T14:56:32Z")
> [@Steken](#): > > … Aaaaaaand the President has [retaliated by firing Maliki and appointing Haider al-Abadi to take the reins in his stead](http://www.nytimes.com/2014/08/12/world/middleeast/iraq.html). > > Pretty sure Maliki won’t turn the other cheek, so look out for some Shi’ite-on-Shi’ite violence in the next coupla days… Let’s hope Iran has a decent grip on the militia’s and all his cronies in the security forces sniff which way the wind is blowing. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [August 11, 2014, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473/303 "2014-08-11T22:52:01Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > And how long might that be? After many years of training the first time they were asked to ‘pick up the slack’ they effectively threw their arms at ISIS and ran away, leaving ISIS to loot bases and armouries. (Something which will no doubt be repeated in Afghanistan sooner or later). Well step one is to level the playing field and that involves taking away heavy weapons. Once given the green light that’s an easy thing to do. As I said before, we have to ask before we go in now. that’s the biggest hurdle. It’s not going to be an open ended turkey shoot. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2014, 8:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473/304 "2014-08-12T08:44:58Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > Well step one is to level the playing field and that involves taking away heavy weapons. Once given the green light that’s an easy thing to do. > > As I said before, we have to ask before we go in now. that’s the biggest hurdle. It’s not going to be an open ended turkey shoot. It’s not that easy at all if deployed defensively in urban areas where the civilian casualties will just drive the already disaffected minorities into supporting ISIS. I still don’t see where the troops are coming from. The Kurds are not an army, they are just another militia with no logistics or real training in modern warfare. As a commentator I read today said in the context of the Persh front line fighting on their own door-step. ‘Real armies don’t run out of ammunition in two days’. now that the CIA is arranging more AK47’s and ammo they will no doubt do fine defending their backyard. But neither they nor, if I can manage to say the term with a straight face, the Iraqi ‘Army’, look like the people who are going to fight street to street against fanatical and experienced troops. Reportedly (I read it on a news aggregator so no cite) the Kurds just lost another town while retaking two with US air support. ISIS blew through the defenses with a suicide truck bomb and followed that up with suicide bombers. The defenders then And as Obama recognises - arming the Kurds may just exacerbate tensions in Iraq in the long term. Even an independent Kurdistan will not solve the issue as what the Kurds might consider ‘kurdistan’ isn’t what others will concede, what with the oil and the mixed communities. What a nightmare it would be if the Kurds get down to their own ethnic cleansing. That will just drive the Sunni back into the arms of ISIS and totally inflame the Shia. But like you say - no easy answers. I’m not sure there are any answers that don’t involve a long and bloody regional civil war to redraw the map of the region. ---
**Author:** ![bardos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bardos/32/1069_2.png) [@bardos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bardos)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2014, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473/305 "2014-08-12T13:18:33Z")
Rhetorical question: How in Allah’s name can the IS be fighting on 4 or 5 different fronts at the same time… and advancing on all of them? ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2014, 1:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473/306 "2014-08-12T13:39:01Z")
> [@bardos](#): > > Rhetorical question: How in Allah’s name can the IS be fighting on 4 or 5 different fronts at the same time… and advancing on all of them? Because they are battle-hardened, very well-equipped and trained, numerous, unbelievably brutal and hence terrifying and fanatically brave. And it has plenty of Sunni allies. ISIS is also fabulously rich - as in billions of dollars rich. Here’s an interesting article I can across: [Why the Iraq Army cannot defeat ISIS](http://www.vox.com/2014/6/20/5824480/why-the-iraqi-army-cant-defeat-isis) > [@](#): > > ISIS wasn’t always strong enough to take real advantage of the Iraqi military’s intrinsic weakness. “When the US fought ISIS in 2007, they were very weak,” Abbas explained. “North of Baghdad, it took less than 24 hours for the whole organization to collapse in the face of a few soldiers and tribal militias.” > > But between 2007 and now, something changed. “When you like at the [ISIS] training videos from the mid 2000s, and compare them to ones from 2010, they’re moving from terrorist tactics like how do you create an IED to things that include operations, strategy tactics,” Nathaniel Rosenblatt, the head of Caerus’ Middle East division, says. > > Rosenblatt and Abbas say there’s been an influx of skilled Saddam-era military leaders and soldiers into ISIS’ ranks. “When you look at some of the reports about the leadership under [ISIS commander Abu Bakr] al-Baghdadi,” Rosenblatt said, “those second-in-command guys have very strong ties to Saddam’s army.” Acquiring lots of weapons, money, and experience over the course of the Syrian war allowed them to translate that new training into real military effectiveness. > > It’s hard to overstate how much of advantage this training and professionalism gives the Islamist group. “ISIS knows how to use smaller units” effectively against larger forces, says Smyth. They’re “very efficient, and you have to deal with that.” ---
**Author:** ![Knowledgable](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/67e7ee/32.png) [@Knowledgable](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Knowledgable)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2014, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473/307 "2014-08-12T14:27:01Z")
With the recent establishment of a neo-caliphate in the Iraq and parts of Syria in Middle East, neighboring countries has gone alerted by the danger IS poses in the region. They’re indeed battle-hardened as you say but the main reason behind their success is they believe in what they fight and die for. They believe in Allah until the end and nothing will change their brain-washed mentalities. They are ready to die whenever the time comes for them because they think they will be rewarded for their efforts to spread the Jihadist movement. Iraqi Army has proved unsuccessful and the Syrian Army is nothing better since there has been a civil war for 3 years now, which is enough to weaken the Syrian Army beyond being able to defend their country from the real danger. Not the people wanting freedom… But the people want to bring Sharia code. People who don’t tolerate others… US has been late to support the Iraqi government and because of this Iraqi government is paying a immense strategic cost as one of their biggest-oil-reserve-containing-province, Mosul has been captured. IS has not been satisfied though. As I’ve said they will fight until the end but there will be lots of multi-layered obstacles for them. The Peshmerga is a big one. The Peshmerga, or the Kurdish forces has been a long-standing regional protector of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region and has lots of combat experience and skills from fighting the Turkish government for many years. They have proven successful but with the US intervention, their achievements will only get bigger and bigger. IS’ other problems include the Western aids to defense groups against them and another ironic enemy they has (except normal people) are other extremist Islamic groups! When al-Qaeda announced that it had no ties with IS and the sole representative of al-Qaeda in Iraq was al-Nusra, this sparked up lots of violence and caused tons of bloodshed in the region as varying extremist groups pledged alliance to IS and others sided with al-Qaeda. This even can potentially turn into a Sunni x Sunni war as it has been clear that IS has no boundaries. Other extremist groups has called the caliphate a “twitter-caliphate” and mocked with it, denying its legitimacy and not acknowledging it. All I hope is that IS doesn’t spread to Jordan or Lebanon because especially Lebanon has a relatively small army and this might cause the spread of terrorism to Israel, which you know how usually ends… Lots of people dead. I think a multinational coalition force as in the Gulf War could be able to suppress the IS offensive, launch a counter-offensive and eradicate the brain-washed extremist once in for all. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2014, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473/308 "2014-08-12T14:53:42Z")
> [@Knowledgable](#): > > The Peshmerga is a big one. The Peshmerga, or the Kurdish forces has been a long-standing regional protector of the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region and has lots of combat experience and skills from fighting the Turkish government for many years You are thinking of the PKK. The Peshmerga is the Kurdish militia and did not fight in Turkey. The PKK has some experience fighting with the Kurds in Syria but has been mainly a terrorist force and continues to be designated a terrorist organisation by the USA and the UK. ---
**Author:** ![Latro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/a87d85/32.png) [@Latro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Latro)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2014, 3:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473/309 "2014-08-12T15:01:06Z")
I’m in favor of a big “We are very sorry!” to Assad and give him carte blanche and all the resources he asks for. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2014, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473/310 "2014-08-12T15:08:49Z")
And the USA was not ‘late’ in supporting Iraq. Malaki, with this winner-takes-all sectarian attitude pretty much drove the Sunni into supporting ISIS. The USA, quite rightly, will not support a sectarian seizure of Iraq. It will support a united Iraq and Malaki was hell-bent on the opposite. As Obama said - The USA will not allow itself to become the air-force of one faction against the others. Quite how that determination will hold now that for the first time the USA is directly arming the Kurds remains to be seen. But as they are the only fighting force in Iraq that does not run throw their guns down and run away screaming at the first sign of trouble I guess it’s a risk he had to take. So much of this feels like South Vietnam. An army that doesn’t want to fight and a state no one wants to fight for. Which makes the Kurds the Montgnards I guess. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2014, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473/311 "2014-08-12T15:12:33Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > I’m in favor of a big “We are very sorry!” to Assad and give him carte blanche and all the resources he asks for. I’m sure that’ process is in motion on behind the scenes. [For what this source is worth.](http://intelnews.org/2014/01/17/01-1407/) > [@](#): > > The BBC says it has confirmed that secret meetings have been held between Western intelligence officials and senior members of the Syrian government, aimed at “combating radical Islamist groups” in Syria. In a report aired on Wednesday, the British news agency cited “informed sources” in confirming that Western intelligence officials had visited Syrian capital Damascus. While there, said the report, the officials held meetings with security agents loyal to the government of President Bashar al-Assad. The confirmation came a day after Syria’s Deputy Foreign Minister, Faisal Mekdad, told BBC’s flagship Newsnight program that the Syrian government was cooperating with Western intelligence services against radical Islamist groups that have taken up arms against President Assad. The Syrian official told Newsnight that Western governments were “finally understanding” that there was “no alternative except al-Qaeda” to Assad’s rule in Syria, and that Western security officials were in secret contact with Damascus. ---
**Author:** ![Laggard](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/9de053/32.png) [@Laggard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Laggard)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2014, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473/312 "2014-08-12T15:19:45Z")
> [@Latro](#): > > I’m in favor of a big “We are very sorry!” to Assad and give him carte blanche and all the resources he asks for. Like more barrel bombs to drop on outdoor markets filled with women and children? ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2014, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473/313 "2014-08-12T15:37:33Z")
> [@Laggard](#): > > Like more barrel bombs to drop on outdoor markets filled with women and children? He won’t need to improvise once we start deniably rearming him, for ‘The Greater Good.’ And western governments will go noticeably silent about the whole thing while the media reframes the resistance as extremist terrorists (which isn’t that far from the truth nowadays anyway). You know how this works. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2014, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473/314 "2014-08-12T15:47:41Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > And the USA was not ‘late’ in supporting Iraq. Malaki, with this winner-takes-all sectarian attitude pretty much drove the Sunni into supporting ISIS. The USA, quite rightly, will not support a sectarian seizure of Iraq. It will support a united Iraq and Malaki was hell-bent on the opposite. > > As Obama said - The USA will not allow itself to become the air-force of one faction against the others. And yet that is exactly what we’re doing. You can’t really separate ISIL from Iraqi Sunni Arabs at this point, and so we’re acting as the Kurdish Air Force as they fight the Sunni Arabs. ---
**Author:** ![davida03801](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b5e925/32.png) [@davida03801](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/davida03801)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2014, 3:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473/315 "2014-08-12T15:51:35Z")
> [@bardos](#): > > Rhetorical question: How in Allah’s name can the IS be fighting on 4 or 5 different fronts at the same time… and advancing on all of them? Not too bad for the JV team. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [August 12, 2014, 10:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473/316 "2014-08-12T22:05:09Z")
> [@tagos](#): > > It’s not that easy at all if deployed defensively in urban areas where the civilian casualties will just drive the already disaffected minorities into supporting ISIS. It’s a matter of coordinating it with the community. > [@tagos](#): > > I still don’t see where the troops are coming from. The Kurds are not an army, they are just another militia with no logistics or real training in modern warfare. As a commentator I read today said in the context of the Persh front line fighting on their own door-step. ISIS is a militia without a base of operation. They have acquired the kind of equipment that makes it tough for other militias to deal with. > [@tagos](#): > > ‘Real armies don’t run out of ammunition in two days’. > now that the CIA is arranging more AK47’s and ammo they will no doubt do fine defending their backyard. once the heavy equipment is removed. > [@tagos](#): > > But neither they nor, if I can manage to say the term with a straight face, the Iraqi ‘Army’, look like the people who are going to fight street to street against fanatical and experienced troops. yes, right now the Iraqi Army sucks. They were once the 3rd largest standing army and we sliced through them like a knife through butter. The same process is going to apply to ISIS who have even less training. > [@tagos](#): > > Reportedly (I read it on a news aggregator so no cite) the Kurds just lost another town while retaking two with US air support. ISIS blew through the defenses with a suicide truck bomb and followed that up with suicide bombers. suicide bombers cannot take a town. The Kurds are retaking land without the use of heavy weapons. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 12:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473/317 "2014-08-13T00:45:27Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > You can’t really separate ISIL from Iraqi Sunni Arabs at this point . . . I’m sure there are many Iraqi Sunni Arabs who do not sympathize with ISIL at all. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 9:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473/318 "2014-08-13T09:31:52Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > suicide bombers cannot take a town. The Kurds are retaking land without the use of heavy weapons. Yes they can it seems. According to the report (which is unsubstantiated) a truck blew the defences, 2 bombers ran in and killed a lot of defenders and then the Kurds all ran away. And ‘we’ are not going back into Iraq so no - ‘we’ are not going to slice through them like butter. Much of the Sunni ‘community’ currently support ISIS outside of the Kurdish areas because of how the Shia have treated them. They hated and feared the Iraqi Army and won’t welcome them back. I don’t know where the idea that the Pershmaga are an army has come from. they are just another ill-trained militia with no interest in anything other that Kurdistan. I’ve been watching film of the counter-attacks. Way too many armed old guy civilians, some of them in suits, just firing wildly down the street. ISIS are in fact very well-trained according to observers. They’ve been inadvertently trained by the USA as part of our misguided Syrian effort and more importantly they are experienced in warfare. Luckily they lack air power and have only all the Stingers the USA donated via the Iraq Army. So I am sure the Kurds can drive them out of Iraqi Kurd areas. What then? What happens if they keep going into Syrian Kurdish areas? does the USA continue providing air-cover because sure as shit once they drive ISIS from the are it becomes part of ‘Kurdistan’ in their eyes. I do not believe, not for one second, the Kurds have any interest in fighting for the ‘Iraq’ they are threatening to hold a referendum to leave soon. But if the USA wants to arm and support them to occupy as much of Iraq as they can i’m sure they’ll be all for it. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 9:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473/319 "2014-08-13T09:33:59Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > I’m sure there are many Iraqi Sunni Arabs who do not sympathize with ISIL at all. Yet they also hate and fear, with very good reason - the Shia militias. Besides it doesn’t matter what individuals feel if their tribal leaders have thrown in their lot with them. ---
**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\ **Post date:** [August 13, 2014, 9:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473/320 "2014-08-13T09:35:24Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > And yet that is exactly what we’re doing. You can’t really separate ISIL from Iraqi Sunni Arabs at this point, and so we’re acting as the Kurdish Air Force as they fight the Sunni Arabs. In practice, yes. Tiger by the tail. Obama is damned either way. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473.md?page=15) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isis-in-the-middle-east-is-growing/690473.md?page=17)