# Isn't the concept of herd immunity a bit absurd? **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [July 7, 2020, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654 "2020-07-07T18:54:45Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Ashtura](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ashtura/32/2963_2.png) [@Ashtura](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ashtura)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2020, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654/21 "2020-07-08T12:37:30Z")
I’m not convinced that herd immunity to covid will ever happen. I don’t think the antibodies will stick permanently, and I think it’s very possible it will mutate enough to be a yearly thing like the flu. I’m not convinced a fool proof one-and-done vaccine will ever happen either. ---
**Author:** ![RealityCheck71](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitycheck71/32/3493_2.png) [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2020, 12:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654/22 "2020-07-08T12:59:51Z")
The most recent I can find for New York was done mid June that showed 22% of residents had antibodies in NYC with the Bronx the highest at 33%. > **[New York's latest COVID antibody survey shows a rise in the Bronx and...](https://www.6sqft.com/new-york-covid-antibody-test-preliminary-results/)** > > Governor Cuomo released the results of the state's second-phase COVID antibody test, which randomly surveyed 12,000 people between May 1 and June 13. ---
**Author:** ![SayTwo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e56c9b/32.png) [@SayTwo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SayTwo)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2020, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654/23 "2020-07-08T14:06:58Z")
And what is their rate of new infections these days, versus at the peak? ---
**Author:** ![DCnDC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dcndc/32/2842_2.png) [@DCnDC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DCnDC)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2020, 2:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654/24 "2020-07-08T14:16:59Z")
According to this recent study in Spain, herd immunity just ain’t happening: > **[Prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain (ENE-COVID): a nationwide, population-based...](https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31483-5/fulltext)** > > The majority of the Spanish population is seronegative to SARS-CoV-2 infection, even > in hotspot areas. Most PCR-confirmed cases have detectable antibodies, but a substantial > proportion of people with symptoms compatible with COVID-19 did not have a... Easier-to-digest version: > **[Coronavirus: Spanish study casts doubt on herd immunity feasibility](https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53315983)** > > A Lancet study estimates that around just 5% of the Spanish population has developed antibodies. ---
**Author:** ![RealityCheck71](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitycheck71/32/3493_2.png) [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2020, 2:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654/25 "2020-07-08T14:20:16Z")
That’s rather at odds with the New York numbers. Even Sweden had over 7% a month or two ago. Eta: regardless, as @DSeid said above, there is more to immunity than antibodies. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2020, 4:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654/26 "2020-07-08T16:12:49Z")
This [https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/07/more-on-t-cells-antibody-levels-and-our-ignorance](https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/07/07/more-on-t-cells-antibody-levels-and-our-ignorance) is a post about immunity, antibodies, etc. The blogger is a medicinal chemist who I’ve been reading for years. He’s well-respected in his field and most of his pre-COVID readers are professionals in his field. He’s not an “instant expert”. Since COVID began he’s done a great service in explaining the science (and especially the massive uncertainties in that science) for an intelligent lay audience. He’s now up to 33 posts about COVID and one could do far worse than to read them all from oldest to newest. ---
**Author:** ![Joey\_P](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/919ad9/32.png) [@Joey\_P](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Joey_P)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2020, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654/27 "2020-07-08T17:22:05Z")
> [@Ashtura](#): > > I think it’s very possible it will mutate enough to be a yearly thing like the flu Not the case for others, I know, but for me, I’d have no problem with getting a shot once a year. One of the perks, I’ve found, to getting allergy shots every month, is that when the flu shot shows up, I’m practically one of the first to get it since I just have them do that with the allergy shots. If there was a annual covid shot, I’d just get that as well. I’m already getting three shots, one or two more really isn’t a big deal. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2020, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654/28 "2020-07-08T18:29:40Z")
An excellent read! ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [July 8, 2020, 8:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654/29 "2020-07-08T20:58:33Z")
> [@MandaJo](#): > > Mongolia, too. The US really can’t hide behind “we don’t have the sophisticated infrastructure to control this” excuse. Mongolia cancelled holiday celebrations, stopped most international flights and closed the borders _before_ they detected a single case in country. I’m not excusing the disastrous US response here. We clearly fucked this up in many ways. But given the level of freedom of movement and economic entanglement of the US with the world economy, it was just not plausible for us to close down sufficiently enough that we ended up with a few tiny outbreaks that could be contained the way that smaller more-isolated countries did. Part of this is simply structural in our government. The Federal government, even if it had done everything right, can’t just shut things down in a coherent unilateral way the way that smaller countries with more unified governments can. Each state would have to do things individually. If you look at the US state that most resembles the greatest success stories (Hawaii), you see that they have done pretty well despite the abysmal Federal response. The other part, of course, is that a large portion of our country has bought in to partisan-conspiracy-theory bullshit and is actively counteracting the portion that’s doing the right thing. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2020, 2:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654/30 "2020-07-09T14:06:46Z")
At the end of the day, achieving “herd immunity” without the use of a vaccine is essentially, “The same thing the human race did with every disease in our history before we invented vaccines”. That is, basically “doing nothing”. Let everyone get sick, and see who lives through it. It’ll work just as well now as it did then. Point of order: the people who lived “then” decided that inventing vaccines was a good idea. But forget those primitive screw heads, what did they know, amiright? ---
**Author:** ![bump](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7c8e57/32.png) [@bump](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bump)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2020, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654/31 "2020-07-10T20:41:57Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > Also, since Covid immunity only lasts a few months, you’d have to have the majority of Americans reinfected again and again. We don’t actually know that; what we do know is that antibodies go away after a few months. But that may be the case for just about all viral diseases. As I understand it, what counts is whether or not our bodies produce memory T-cells that remember how to _MAKE_ the antibodies if we’re reinfected. Look at it this way… it’s highly likely that you had the chicken pox (a viral infection) in your childhood if you’re over a certain age. And that confers lifelong immunity to catching chicken pox. But it’s also likely that despite that lifelong immunity, you don’t, and haven’t had antibodies to chicken pox in your blood in a long time. That’s the big question, and one that’s really hard to test- are people producing those memory t-cells that would confer long-term immunity? ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 4:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654/32 "2020-07-11T04:10:00Z")
Agree with the OP. “Herd immunity” is normally just used in the context of vaccination. Allowing herd immunity to develop naturally is basically the worst-case scenario as millions could die and we’d be crossing our fingers that while the disease is infecting hundreds of millions it doesn’t mutate significantly. Otherwise an _even worse_ case scenario could be reached. > [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > I’m not excusing the disastrous US response here. We clearly fucked this up in many ways. But given the level of freedom of movement and economic entanglement of the US with the world economy, it was just not plausible for us to close down sufficiently enough that we ended up with a few tiny outbreaks that could be contained the way that smaller more-isolated countries did. > > Part of this is simply structural in our government. The Federal government, even if it had done everything right, can’t just shut things down in a coherent unilateral way the way that smaller countries with more unified governments can. Each state would have to do things individually. > > If you look at the US state that most resembles the greatest success stories (Hawaii), you see that they have done pretty well despite the abysmal Federal response. I know you’ve clarified that you’re not making excuses and the response was fucked up, but there is still something in the phrasing of your post that reminds me of standard “The US cannot have UHC because of its unique combination of geographical size and multi-ethnicity” which we often get on the Dope. The US federal system is arguably not ideal for pursuing a coordinated response, but no country was well equipped for this. And yet lots of countries, big and small, islands and bordered and landlocked countries, have managed to contain this. Countries much poorer than the US with far less medical resources have. So I would push back against any implication that failure was inevitable here. ---
**Author:** ![RealityCheck71](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitycheck71/32/3493_2.png) [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 4:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654/33 "2020-07-11T04:22:59Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > “Herd immunity” is normally just used in the context of vaccination. Allowing herd immunity to develop naturally is basically the worst-case scenario as millions could die There is a middle ground. I’m not advocating this idea for places with growing numbers. There is a concept of slow burn where you let enough low risk people get sick/immune from the disease cautiously so that you reach herd immunity without overly exposing high risk. I’m sure you don’t like that idea but you must imagine a world where a vaccine is always a year away. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 4:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654/34 "2020-07-11T04:36:05Z")
> [@RealityCheck71](#): > > I’m sure you don’t like that idea but you must imagine a world where a vaccine is always a year away. Sure, and from what we’ve seen around the world, the best response to would be a strict lockdown to vastly reduce community spread, followed by extensive testing, mask use and contact tracing to stomp out any new outbreaks. What’s gone horribly wrong with the US, is the lockdown was staggered and not even upheld in many places. So unfortunately this has both made the lockdown longer and less effective than it should have been. Scientifically-speaking there is no reason that a lockdown couldn’t work even now, but I would accept that politically, socially etc, you can’t sell the idea of continuing the barricade. But still, hopefully all the other measures, if they happened, would act to keep numbers far below the herd immunity point. That’s a horrific scenario even compared to where we are today. ---
**Author:** ![RealityCheck71](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitycheck71/32/3493_2.png) [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 12:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654/35 "2020-07-11T12:45:35Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > Sure, and from what we’ve seen around the world, the best response to would be a strict lockdown to vastly reduce community spread, followed by extensive testing, mask use and contact tracing to stomp out any new outbreaks Short term, that’s the best response. But if this is going to be an endemic disease, can we do that forever? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654/36 "2020-07-11T14:08:14Z")
@ **RealityCheck71** just above … The lockdown, no. The testing, masking, and tracing may indeed be a near permanent part of at least first-world humanity’s collective future. Like you, I am skeptical an effective vaccine can be developed or that if it is, enough of humanity can be persuaded to take it. And doubly so if, like the flu vax, it needs to be reformulated & readministered repeatedly. Or we’ll decide to just pay the “tax” of killing a half-million humans every year. We certainly choose to pay other such “taxes” by our collective failures to manage air pollution, poverty, (soon enough) climate change, ethnic violence, religious intolerance, and other infectious or chronic diseases, with flu being the most topical, but far from the most impactful. Plus of course natural disasters where we routinely eschew up-front mitigations as too costly and simply absorb the much more costly impacts as and where Nature dishes them out. Much of our collective record of managing Nature’s challenges suggests to me that we’ll simply adapt and endure, rather than greatly mitigate. You can choose to read my “our” & “we” as “humanity”, “the first world”, “the USA”, or “your neighborhood” as you choose. I think my contention is more applicable at larger scales than smaller. Which for large adaptions renders better decision-making at smaller scales increasingly difficult, expensive, and/or ineffective. Mother Nature is teaching us all a lesson about growing up as a species. Will we learn? Damn good question. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654/37 "2020-07-11T14:10:40Z")
> [@RealityCheck71](#): > > {…} if this is going to be an endemic disease, can we do that forever? If this is an endemic disease then we either find the other species that are hosting it or we accept that our only choice is which path do we take to eradicate it in humans. I’m reasonably certain our only choice is larger numbers of dead or doing the things idiots are, for unfathomable reasons, refusing to do and refusing to do in the way the stops the spread of the infection. CMC ---
**Author:** ![RealityCheck71](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/realitycheck71/32/3493_2.png) [@RealityCheck71](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RealityCheck71)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654/38 "2020-07-11T14:11:38Z")
I know some think masks and social distancing is a minor burden but it fundamentally alters our human interaction. I will not accept a world where children grow up not seeing faces and being scared to come close to people. This disease is no way near worth that kind of altering of our society forever. It just isn’t. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 2:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654/39 "2020-07-11T14:13:32Z")
Ya know what else fundamentally alters our human interaction? DEATH. CMC ---
**Author:** ![Thudlow\_Boink](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thudlow_boink/32/320_2.png) [@Thudlow\_Boink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thudlow_Boink)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2020, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654/40 "2020-07-11T14:41:16Z")
> [@RealityCheck71](#): > > I know some think masks and social distancing is a minor burden but it fundamentally alters our human interaction. > [@crowmanyclouds](#): > > Ya know what else fundamentally alters our human interaction? DEATH. Or even just illness. Yeah, I’d _love_ to dispense with the masks and social distancing. We all would. We’re not doing it for no good reason. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-the-concept-of-herd-immunity-a-bit-absurd/914654.md?page=3)