# Isn't today's low birth rate exactly what people of the 1980s were clamoring for? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 30, 2026, 9:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699 "2026-08-30T21:54:46Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![steronz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steronz/32/11765_2.png) [@steronz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/steronz)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 3:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699/41 "2026-08-31T15:10:23Z")
Yeah, I mean the fact that there are widespread organized efforts among conservative whackos to turn women into vote generation factories is _annoying_, but I’m not about to reverse my vasectomy to combat it. Bringing children into the world to be political pawns is gross and immoral, and I’m content to let that be a tactic of the right. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 3:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699/42 "2026-08-31T15:19:08Z")
I’d say it’s not necessarily liberalism or conservatism as a certain sense of sociocultural privilege. “We” would raise our kids to uphold the truly better values and ways, “they” would raise theirs contrary to that. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699/43 "2026-08-31T15:37:18Z")
> [@TruCelt](#): > > In the end, it’s the symptoms of a society serving the billionaire class instead of society at large. There is no reason that a medium sized company can’t continue for decades providing a reliable product in sustainable numbers to a loyal consumer base. This is exactly right. If the surplus of our economy benefited more people instead of fewer, there would be little concern about whether some metrics were growing. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699/44 "2026-08-31T16:04:27Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > less than 2 billion is what the world really needs. A billion is probably ideal. But that population size might not provide the economy of scale necessary for some technologies to exist. I’m told that the most modern computer chip fabrication machines are so specialized that there’s exactly [**ONE** facility in the entire world](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ASML) that makes them. Would that facility exist in a world with 1/4 or 1/8 the market? ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 4:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699/45 "2026-08-31T16:06:44Z")
I don’t know, show your work. The factories can be built and I thought they were being built. I don’t see a smaller market that is still 2 billion people doing much to tech advancement. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699/46 "2026-08-31T16:10:49Z")
What’s North Korea’s excuse? Their GDP per capita is estimated at about $1300 but their birthrate is said to be 1.4 - 1.8 ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 4:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699/47 "2026-08-31T16:21:42Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > They could change that policy if they saw things were getting out of hand. They did. The policy was always riddled with exceptions, but it was changed to a two child policy in 2016 and dropped entirely in 2021. Check the chart I posted above and you’ll see that the birth rate dropped precipitously after 2016. The reasons parallel those in the U.S. Housing got too expensive, prices rose faster than wages, the norms for a good life required more income, couples started putting off babies in two worker households. China has already peaked in population. As we’ve seen in other threads, no planned method of raising birthrates significantly has yet been found. (Enormous disasters like Mao’s Great Leap Forward or the Great Depression spur spontaneous growth in the aftermath, but no sane country can accept that as policy.) They will now have to make the same decision every other industrialized country faces: allow immigration or accept stagnation. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699/48 "2026-08-31T16:23:21Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > What’s North Korea’s excuse? Their GDP per capita is estimated at about $1300 but their birthrate is said to be 1.4 - 1.8 I think as GDP per capita increases (countries and their citizens get richer), the birthrate declines. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699/49 "2026-08-31T16:24:50Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > The past they were extrapolating from in the 1980s was the baby boom Not just the USA baby boom but the enormous increase in global population growth that took place after modern sanitation and medicine began reducing childhood mortality rates. This had previously taken place in the developed world in the early 20th century, now the formerly abysmally wretched Third World started closing the gap. > [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Nobody then predicted such complete idiocy. Except science fiction writers. See “Soylent Green” (which incidentally thought that we’d be in Malthusian catastrophe by the time the USA population exceeded 300 million). Or the Star Trek episode “The Mark of Gideon” for one of the original series’ cautionary tales. > [@What\_Exit](#): > > I don’t know, show your work. > The factories can be built and I thought they were being built. > I don’t see a smaller market that is still 2 billion people doing much to tech advancement. There’s a difference between something being technically possible and it being actually economically viable. Two billion wouldn’t be a “smaller” market, it was be an eviscerated market. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 4:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699/50 "2026-08-31T16:32:34Z")
Counter to that is how much simpler a problem of food security, housing and education would become. Better social welfare should also make things safer. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699/51 "2026-08-31T16:34:35Z")
> [@susan](#): > > I assume it’s about wanting to make sure there are more of Us and fewer of Them. Ask the indigenous peoples of America how comforting it is that although they’re now nearly extinct, immigrants replaced them. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699/52 "2026-08-31T16:37:07Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > They will now have to make the same decision every other industrialized country faces: allow immigration or accept stagnation. Perhaps stabilization is a better term. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699/53 "2026-08-31T16:41:52Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > > [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > > > The policy gave them breathing room. Now it’s catching up with unpredicted modern reality, a lower birth rate from a smaller population and a greater percentage of older adults. > > They could change that policy if they saw things were getting out of hand. As @Exapmo\_Mapcase said they did change the policy in 2016. > **[The End of China’s One-Child Policy: Implications](https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-end-of-chinas-one-child-policy/)** > > Discover the implications of China ending its one-child policy and allowing couples to have two children. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699/54 "2026-08-31T16:44:36Z")
Even though China has reversed the one child policy, people are still not having any more than one child. ---
**Author:** ![susan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/susan/32/17537_2.png) [@susan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/susan)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699/55 "2026-08-31T16:50:40Z")
Sorry, I don’t understand your comment. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699/56 "2026-08-31T17:12:19Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > Except science fiction writers. See “Soylent Green” My use of “idiocy” referred to this sentence talking about _declining_ birthrates. > [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > The worst possible reaction would be to stop immigration and deport millions of immigrants. How are overpopulation fictions remotely relevant? > [@Pleonast](#): > > Perhaps stabilization is a better term. Stabilizing a declining population now appears as impossible as raising birthrates. ---
**Author:** ![bob\_2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bob_2/32/3341_2.png) [@bob\_2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bob_2)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699/57 "2026-08-31T17:20:39Z")
Malthus assumed that the population (of the world?) would eventually outpace production of food. This has not happened due to improvements in agriculture. The UK has increased the age at which we can draw the state pension to 67 (both male and female), and this is likely to increase further. Oddly, some benefits, like free prescriptions, still begin at 65. I suspect the government will be taking a hard look at that. As an octogenarian, I am not personally concerned, but I have grandchildren still in primary school, and I do worry about them. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699/58 "2026-08-31T17:24:05Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > Two billion wouldn’t be a “smaller” market, it was be an eviscerated market Why would it be eviscerated? .The factory would still function. Right now , there is only one fabricator of computer chips in the world (in Taiwan) which makes all the chips for 8 billion earthlings and their cell phones. The enormous cost of building the factory is split over 8 billion cell phones. If the population drops by a factor of 4 to 2 billion, then the factory would produce one quarter as many chips, and raise the price by a factor of 4. So you instead of buying a new iphone every year, we will buy one every 4 years. But the price of housing will drop, because 2 billion people don’t need 8 billion houses. There will be lots of empty houses, even in large cities. Life will go on.. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 6:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699/59 "2026-08-31T18:12:59Z")
We’ve already seen what happens to cities when populations drops. Look anywhere in the Rust Belt. Yes, houses are cheap compared to the ones in the fast growing South and Southwest. But the tax base has disappeared. Cities still need schools, police and fire, water and sewers, libraries, public transport, all of which needs to function across the same number of square miles with tinier resources. The hollowing out of world population will work the same way. Some places will continue to prosper. Every other place will stagnate at best and descend into squalor at worst. Their residents will want to move elsewhere toward prosperity, setting up exactly the same immigration pressures and stand-offs as today. Thinking that everybody can continue the same lifestyle just with a bit less consumerism is a deadly mistake. People will die from lack of resources. They are doing so already in many places. Straight-line extrapolation got us into this mess; more of it will not mitigate the problems. Only drastic changes in mindsets will do so. ---
**Author:** ![Pleonast](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pleonast/32/1183_2.png) [@Pleonast](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Pleonast)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2026, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699/60 "2026-08-31T18:18:52Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Only drastic changes in mindsets will do so. Like discontinuing the conflation of economic stabilization with population stabilization. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/isnt-todays-low-birth-rate-exactly-what-people-of-the-1980s-were-clamoring-for/1032699.md?page=4)