# Israel, and the USA as of June 21, 2025, strikes dozens of targets in Iran, including nuclear program **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Tags:** breaking-news\ **Created:** [June 13, 2025, 1:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556 "2025-06-13T01:51:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/241 "2025-06-18T16:37:05Z")
Another Iranian barrage has been launched a few minutes ago. No word on the size yet. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/242 "2025-06-18T16:39:07Z")
This does not bode well: - [UN Says It Has Lost Track of Iran’s Near-Bomb-Grade Uranium](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-06-18/iran-nuclear-infrastructure-location-of-enriched-uranium-stocks-uncertain) > The United Nations nuclear watchdog said the location of Iran’s near-bomb-grade stockpile of enriched uranium cannot currently be verified, as Israel’s ongoing military assault is preventing inspectors from doing their work. > > Iran’s 409 kilograms (902 pounds) of highly-enriched uranium — enough to produce 10 nuclear warheads — should theoretically be secured under an International Atomic Energy Agency seal at an underground facility at Isfahan. But IAEA Director General Rafael Mariano Grossi said Wednesday its whereabouts are now unclear, given Tehran warned him the stockpile could be moved in the event of an Israeli attack. ---
**Author:** ![DeadTreasSecretaries](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deadtreassecretaries/32/4817_2.png) [@DeadTreasSecretaries](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeadTreasSecretaries)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/243 "2025-06-18T16:42:35Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > I think it’s pretty clear that the JCPOA _didn’t_ prevent them from maintaining the progress they’d already made in their nuclear program, or from building up additional capabilities within the limits of the treaty, or from _building up the capability to rapidly build weapons_ without actually crossing any lines _yet_. The deal was focused on increasing Iran’s breakout time from few months (as it was prior to the deal even under historically strong sanctions) to over a year, and all evidence points to the fact that it was accomplishing that. Iran didn’t have to give up their technology, and realistically a portion of that exists in peoples heads although there’s a hypothetical deal where they have to get rid of equipment and stop using their civillian-grade reactors. The deal did involve gradually drawing down uranium stockpiles which is the primary method of increasing breakout time. Iran was on the verge of a nuke after negotiations and sanctions because the sanctions part of that wasn’t effective at stopping their nuclear program. What sanctions can do is bring the country to the negotiating table. Unfortunately after the number of dictators who gave up their programs and then were deposed anyway, they probably need the type of sanctions regime in place prior to jcpoa to come to the table, the threat of violence has been applied to inconsistently historically. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/244 "2025-06-18T16:50:03Z")
> [@DeadTreasSecretaries](#): > > The deal was focused on increasing Iran’s breakout time from few months (as it was prior to the deal even under historically strong sanctions) to over a year, and all evidence points to the fact that it was accomplishing that. Yeah, and simply increasing Iran’s breakout time to over a year (by estimates that aren’t taking into account whatever Iran does covertly) is just _not good enough_. The only reason that such a horrible deal would ever be accepted is if it is in fact impossible to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons by any other means. Before last week, you probably could have convinced me that this was the case: that it would be impossible to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons programs kinetically. Now, I think I was wrong, and we should have never accepted a deal that left any Iranian nuclear program on the table. Note that centrifuges aren’t needed for civilian nuclear power. You can just import uranium that’s already enriched enough for use in power generation. ---
**Author:** ![smithsb](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smithsb/32/12107_2.png) [@smithsb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smithsb)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/245 "2025-06-18T17:04:12Z")
Seems some government types are taking the evacuation rhetoric seriously. > **[Gaggle Of Iranian Government Aircraft Make Mysterious Dash To Oman](https://www.twz.com/news-features/gaggle-of-iranian-government-aircraft-make-mysterious-dash-to-oman)** > > Iran's presidential A340 and two A321s have flown to Oman days after Israel declared air superiority over the country. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/246 "2025-06-18T17:22:39Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > Yeah, and simply increasing Iran’s breakout time to over a year (by estimates that aren’t taking into account whatever Iran does covertly) is just _not good enough_. The only reason that such a horrible deal would ever be accepted is if it is in fact impossible to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons by any other means. Before last week, you probably could have convinced me that this was the case: that it would be impossible to completely destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons programs kinetically. Now, I think I was wrong, and we should have never accepted a deal that left any Iranian nuclear program on the table. No one can ever predict what exactly will happen in any given scenario, but we can sometimes make good guesses. We may soon find out if we can bomb Iran enough to stop their nuclear _program_, but of this I’m pretty sure: Bombing won’t stop their nuclear _ambitions_. Anything short of a complete occupation of Iran won’t ever stop their ambitions. The lesson of North Korea is clear: Get the bomb, and you are left alone. The Original Iran nuclear deal may not have been “Good enough”, but as I said above, no one ever thought it would be. What it was, was _a good first step_. The situation with Iran took 40 years to get to where we are now, and there’s no way we’re going to fix it entirely in just a few years. But a good first step was to get them to agree to pausing their nuclear program. It was enough of a concession to show they were serious, without making them think they might be getting played. In exchange, we gave them a few things. Unfroze some assets, eased some sanction on things like medicines and the like. Enough to make life in Iran a bit better than it had been. Enough for the moderates in the Iranian government to be able to tell the hardliners, “Look? See? We accomplished something by talking, that you lot have failed at for years now.” Those moderates could have used that success to build their power in Iran, opening up possibilities for more deals. And maybe, in a decade or two, Iran might have ended up being an actual partner in world affairs, and not just the crazy weirdos threatening devastation every few months. Maybe they’d get to a point where they start to think, “Well, maybe we _don’t_ need nukes to have a decent country”, which is the only way we’ll ever stop their nuclear ambitions. But of course, that plan is long and hard, and Trump can’t brag about things that will take longer than his lifetime to actually achieve. So, screw it, bombs away. But I’ll be over here sadly toasting to lost opportunities. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/247 "2025-06-18T17:29:36Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > The lesson of North Korea is clear: Get the bomb, and you are left alone. I really think that if anyone takes that lesson away from North Korea, they are missing the point. North Korea’s regime didn’t survive because they got the bomb. They survived long enough to get the bomb because they are China’s little buffer proxy that keeps the icky capitalists in South Korea at bay. Being nestled up against Big Brother China is the _only_ reason the Kim regime hasn’t been toppled. And the day that Xi Jinping decides that Kim has become a liability, the Korean regime will end, nukes or no nukes. That’s the first point. The second is this. If it was true that North Korean Lesson to the Aspiring Dictator _was_ ‘Get the bomb, and you are left alone’, then the corollary of the NKLttAD is that _you must not allow your autocratic neighbor to get nuclear weapons, no matter the cost of preventing this_. Iran’s neighbors may hesitate to set our the Ayatollahs’ regime if they believe that this will lead Iran to collapse into a failed state crawling with terrorists. But if the alternative is an invincible Iranian dictatorship that can do as it please because its words are backed by nuclear weapons? Bring on the chaos. > [@Horatius](#): > > And maybe, in a decade or two, Iran might have ended up being an actual partner in world affairs, and not just the crazy weirdos threatening devastation every few months. Maybe they’d get to a point where they start to think, “Well, maybe we _don’t_ need nukes to have a decent country”, which is the only way we’ll ever stop their nuclear ambitions. Because that’s precisely how opening up China worked out, right? They moderated their stance and became our partners on the world stage? They _didn’t_ grow more powerful than we could have possibly imagined while remaining hostile to the existing world order? ---
**Author:** ![DeadTreasSecretaries](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deadtreassecretaries/32/4817_2.png) [@DeadTreasSecretaries](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeadTreasSecretaries)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/248 "2025-06-18T17:41:35Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > Yeah, and simply increasing Iran’s breakout time to over a year (by estimates that aren’t taking into account whatever Iran does covertly) is just _not good enough_. The only reason that such a horrible deal would ever be accepted is if it is in fact impossible to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons by any other means. Scenario A is US and Europe continue sanctions, Iran is largely unimpeded and there is no voluntary compliance with inspections. You have a breakout time of months or less and you have to rely entirely on spies and surveillance to see what they’re doing. Scenario B is the “free world” agrees not to sanction them, they agree to inspections and a drawdown of their stockpile. Breakout time is a over a year and any head start would require them to evade both inspections and clandestine surveillance. Even given that it’s ultimately going to be about violence or the threat thereof, scenario B is demonstrably better. If Iran reaches for the gun, Israel and/or the US only has more time to stop them. Not to mention I don’t think it’s a coincidence that they didn’t reach for the gun while it was going on because they were under absolutely no illusions that they had a chance of getting to the gun before getting shot as they apparently did this time around. I will say I think the Iran as a future partner was also a pipe dream unless they’re a future partner a la Saudi Arabia to thr US - an economic partner who also funds some of our greatest adversaries. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 6:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/249 "2025-06-18T18:21:15Z")
> [@DeadTreasSecretaries](#): > > Scenario A is US and Europe continue sanctions,.. no voluntary compliance with inspections. You have a breakout time of months or less and you have to rely entirely on spies and surveillance > > Scenario B is the “free world” agrees not to sanction them, they agree to inspections. Breakout time is a over a year and any head start would require them to evade both inspections and clandestine surveillance. So using these two scenarios, we see that both of them are basically the same. They assume a breakout, and they assume that there is only one way to keep discover it-using spies and surveillance. Everything else is for show.. BOTH of these scenarios fail, because they both state the exact same problem: “breakout time”. The only difference is a few months, And BOTH of these scenarios fail because they both state that they rely ultimately on one and only one watchguard: spies. But we all know that in ther eal world, the breakout is inevitable, and WILL happen. So why prefer one scenario over the other?–they are both inadequate to prevent an evil fanatic jihadist regime from getting nukes. So let’s not pretend that the JCPOA agreement was ever going to prevent the breakout and keep the world safe..The JCPOA only buys a few months of time. I stand by my previous analogy to Neville Chamberlain.(post #42) I never thought that there was a military option, because I thought all the nuke facilities were buried too deep to attack. I have no idea if military action will succeed, but now I see that maybe, just maybe it has a chance of success. ---
**Author:** ![DeadTreasSecretaries](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deadtreassecretaries/32/4817_2.png) [@DeadTreasSecretaries](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeadTreasSecretaries)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/250 "2025-06-18T18:25:10Z")
What course would you take? Bombing them every few years? Deposing the regime entirely and occupying the country? Deposing the regime and hoping the ensuing civil war is won by a frienlier faction? Which country would commit to that level of involvement or commit to clean up the mess? I hope mine wouldn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/251 "2025-06-18T18:29:12Z")
> [@DeadTreasSecretaries](#): > > What course would you take? Bombing them every few years? Deposing the regime entirely and occupying the country? Deposing the regime and hoping the ensuing civil war is won by a frienlier faction? Which country would commit to that level of involvement or commit to clean up the mess? They’re already launching full out wars against Israel through proxies every few years. You’re acting like Israel is giving up an existing peace, but Iran is _already committed_ to Israel’s destruction and is _already taking concrete steps to achieve that goal_. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/252 "2025-06-18T18:34:16Z")
A breakout time of a year is perfectly fine, as long as it stays at one year. It’s a moving horizon, which is how we managed to go for three years without Iran getting the bomb. That just says that the agreement needed to stay in place. And if Iran did start breaking the agreement, a year is long enough to give us time to react to that. > [@Babale](#): > > Because that’s precisely how opening up China worked out, right? They moderated their stance and became our partners on the world stage? They _didn’t_ grow more powerful than we could have possibly imagined while remaining hostile to the existing world order? Yes, exactly. You say that as if you have some doubts? The current world order is extremely profitable for China; of course they approve of it. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/253 "2025-06-18T18:38:48Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > So why prefer one scenario over the other?–they are both inadequate to prevent an evil fanatic jihadist regime from getting nukes. > > So let’s not pretend that the JCPOA agreement was ever going to prevent the breakout and keep the world safe..The JCPOA only buys a few months of time. Because that’s not the only possible scenario. You discount the possibility of Iran ever not being “an evil fanatic jihadist regime”. If that’s what you really think, then there’s a lot more places that you should probably start bombing too, just in case they might ever think about getting the bomb. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/254 "2025-06-18T18:44:25Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > Yes, exactly. You say that as if you have some doubts? The current world order is extremely profitable for China; of course they approve of it. And, notably, we haven’t been lobbing bombs between China and “whoever” every few years. China rattles a few sabers, but so far, they’ve largely avoided actual violence. If Iran suddenly became as reasonable as China has been the last 40 years or so, everyone in the world would be amazed at the sudden success story. So long as nations have competing interests, we’ll always have rivals. But that doesn’t mean we have to constantly worry about bombs being thrown about with little or no warning. It is possible to make a better world, even if it’s not perfect. ---
**Author:** ![DeadTreasSecretaries](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deadtreassecretaries/32/4817_2.png) [@DeadTreasSecretaries](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeadTreasSecretaries)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/255 "2025-06-18T18:49:31Z")
Nope, I’m acting like taking these steps would require a significant amount of blood and treasure from somebody in addition to what was being expended in the prior status quo. I’m also acting like the anti-jcpoa posters havent presented specifically what they would have done so I’m not even sure what specific military action they’d advocate. By the way, as Israel wasn’t a signatory to the jcpoa, it did not prevent them from doing any of this at any point prior to 2018. The catch is they may have had to take one of these military actions without the help of the US. ---
**Author:** ![Lucas\_Jackson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lucas_jackson/32/303_2.png) [@Lucas\_Jackson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lucas_Jackson)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 6:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/256 "2025-06-18T18:52:33Z")
Not to worry, Ted Cruz is on it. Sorry, I hate both of these guys but I found this humorous: > **[Tucker Carlson and Ted Cruz Clash on Iran](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JSTqFuA1FeM%2F)** > > Two of America's most obnoxious people in a cat fight over tilt toward war with Iran. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/257 "2025-06-18T18:55:10Z")
This is absolutely insane. The JCPOA was _working_. Iran was verifiably _not_ further developing nuclear weapons while it was in place. How on earth is that _worse_ than Iran on a path to nukes unless Israel bombs them and then suffers reprisal attacks that kill a TBD number of Israelis? ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/258 "2025-06-18T18:56:02Z")
> [@Lucas\_Jackson](#): > > I found this humorous I found it infuriating. Fucker Carlson can ask the right questions, when it’s in Putin’s interests to do so. Shows that his usual schtick of asking all the _wrong_ questions is a deliberate choice on his part. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/259 "2025-06-18T19:16:01Z")
> [@DeadTreasSecretaries](#): > > Nope, I’m acting like taking these steps would require a significant amount of blood and treasure from somebody in addition to what was being expended in the prior status quo. Sure, because it’s a war. But in total, the “blood and treasure” expended in this war will be less than maintaining the status quo of Iranian proxies attacking Israel on a regular basis for decades, finally concluding with a fight of this scale that happens when Iran is better armed and even closer to nukes. > [@DeadTreasSecretaries](#): > > I’m also acting like the anti-jcpoa posters havent presented specifically what they would have done so I’m not even sure what specific military action they’d advocate. Exactly what you’re seeing Israel do right now. This should have been done years ago. Bomb the nuclear program, bomb the factories involved with missile production, bomb the launchers and the stockpiles, and the institutions of the regime. ---
**Author:** ![DeadTreasSecretaries](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/deadtreassecretaries/32/4817_2.png) [@DeadTreasSecretaries](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DeadTreasSecretaries)\ **Post date:** [June 18, 2025, 7:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556/260 "2025-06-18T19:19:26Z")
Leading to regime change or does Israel do it again in 3 years? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-and-the-usa-as-of-june-21-2025-strikes-dozens-of-targets-in-iran-including-nuclear-program/1019556.md?page=14)