# Israel/Iran - which is most likely to do something catastrophically stupid? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 6, 2011, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059 "2011-11-06T15:24:12Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2011, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059/61 "2011-11-09T22:15:11Z")
Yeah, but in the absence of perfect information, how can one’s behaviour _ever_ be completely reasonable? At some point, arbitrary decisions have to be made. Maybe Israel has way more weaponry than it actually needs, if they knew perfectly the strategic capabilities and long-term intentions of the surrounding states. In lieu of this information, I can’t fault Israel for wanting a “we’ll have way too much” policy, as opposed to “we’ll keep just the right amount” (which could unpleasantly turn out in possible hindsight to be “we didn’t have enough”). ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2011, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059/62 "2011-11-09T22:32:34Z")
I would say, on balance, that Iran is more likely to something catastrophically stupid, because the Israelis have survived this long by never doing that, the potential costs of catastrophe being rather higher in their case. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2011, 12:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059/63 "2011-11-10T00:21:40Z")
> [@Bruce\_Wayne](#): > > Do you have a cite for this, or at least a nudge in the right direction? A quick google search didn’t reveal much. Certainly. [http://www.exile.ru/articles/detail.php?ARTICLE\_ID=6779&IBLOCK\_ID=35](http://www.exile.ru/articles/detail.php?ARTICLE_ID=6779&IBLOCK_ID=35) It was absolutely mortifying for the top brass to see the Carrier Group sunk since it suggested that the DOD’s strategic vision was moronic. Their decision to order the group “refloated” showed the same mentality that Rumsfeld and Co. showed when they insisted a year later that they could conquer, occupy and pacify Iraq on the cheap with a minimal amount of boots on the ground. To his credit, General Van Rippen resigned in protest following their decision. > [@](#): > > When kids play war, they end up spending less time shooting than arguing: “You’re dead!” “Am not! You missed!” It just gets worse the bigger the kids. I remember a D & D’er crying when his character got killed – wouldn’t talk to the rest of us for years, still grieving for his dead elf. > > The US military has been having exactly this kind of argument, played out in the world press, since last August. They’re even whinier and more of a pain about it than D&Ders, if you can believe that, with leaks and counter-leaks, planted stories, and plenty of good ol’ character assassination. > > It all comes out of the “Millenium Challenge '02” war games we staged in the Persian Gulf this summer. The big scandal was that the Opposing Force Commander, Gen. Paul van Ripen, quit mid-game because the games were rigged for the US forces to win. The scenario was a US invasion of an unnamed Persian Gulf country (either Iraq or Iran). The US was testing a new hi-tech joint force doctrine, so naturally van Riper used every lo-tech trick he could think of to mess things up. When the Americans jammed his CCC network , he sent messages by motorbike. > > But that was just playing around. They wouldn’t have minded that. Might’ve even congratulated van Ripen, bought him a drink for his smarts, at the post-games party. > > The truth is that van Ripen did something so important that I still can’t believe the mainstream press hasn’t made anything of it. With nothing more than a few “small boats and aircraft,” van Ripen managed to sink most of the US fleet in the Persian Gulf. > > What this means is as simple and plain as a skull: every US Navy battle group, every one of those big fancy aircraft carriers we love, won’t last one single day in combat against a serious enemy. > > The Navy brass tried to bluff it out, but they were pretty lame about it. They just declared the sunken ships “refloated” so the game could go on as planned. This is the kind of word-game that makes the military look so damn dumb. Too bad Bonaparte never thought of that after Trafalgar: “My vleete, she is now reflotte!” Too bad Phillip didn’t demand a refloat after the Armada went down: “Oye, vatos, dees English sink todos mi ships, chinga sus madres, so escuche: el fleet es ahora refloated, OK?” ---
**Author:** ![thelabdude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/dc4da7/32.png) [@thelabdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thelabdude)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2011, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059/64 "2011-11-10T02:56:35Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Seems a no brainer to me. Iran, by continuing to explore building nuclear weapons, is clearly already the one pushing the envelop on ‘catastrophically stupid’. > > In your opinion it would be. However, surly you understand that not everyone has so blase an attitude about it. Possibly if you lived in Israel and would be the target of any nukes Iran manages to build you might feel a bit differently about it, and feel a bit differently about how stupid or not so stupid it would be to try and prevent them from getting the things. > > To me, the stupidity lies in Iran continuing to push on this, despite almost universal disapproval from other countries, even excluding Israel and the US since you probably think they aren’t exactly unbiased here. > > The trouble is that Iran is pretty much an outlaw nation. It’s feared by most of it’s neighbors, including Israel. Iran getting weapons unbalances the force equation in the region, and my guess is it would start an arms race in the region as others (such as Saudi for instance) attempt to bridge the force gap. Whether that is by getting nukes of their own or by some other means I have no idea…but they aren’t going to just sit by and allow Iran to dominate the region. In addition, Iran isn’t exactly the most stable place in the world. Eventually, IMHO (since we are tossing out opinions right and left here) the wheels are going to come off, and Iran is going to fly apart…and when that happens, I think it would be a Bad Thing™ if they have nukes in their possession. > > All around, it’s a really, REALLY bad idea for Iran to get nukes, and it’s incredibly stupid for them to keep pushing and pushing on this. Whether or not Israel, the US, NATO or someone else takes steps is unknown at this time…but the ‘catastrophically stupid’ part of all of this is squarely on Iran’s shoulders here. > > Iran. Hands down. Israel is certainly capable of doing something unbelievably STUPID…but Iran is second only to, perhaps, North Korea, in the potential for doing something really crazy. > > -XT Makes a lot of sense to me. So how many people in Israel think letting Iran finish their atomic weapons program would be catastrophically stupid? What options do they have to prevent it? What options do we have to prevent Israel from attacking Iran? ---
**Author:** ![Sevastopol](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/cdc98d/32.png) [@Sevastopol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sevastopol)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2011, 4:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059/65 "2011-11-10T04:08:23Z")
> [@thelabdude](#): > > … What options do we have to prevent Israel from attacking Iran? Living in reality will do, just fine. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2011, 4:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059/66 "2011-11-10T04:17:44Z")
> [@Sevastopol](#): > > Living in reality will do, just fine. I’m afraid that’s a rather disingenuous post which ignores that different people’s have different views of reality. From the point of view of the Israelis a country that chose it’s name to curry favor with Hitler, has a government that’s sponsored the bombings of Synagogues, Jewish community centers, Bat Mitzvahs, Jewish weddings and pizzerias filled with Jewish children, has a government that purports that the Protocols of the Elders of Zion are historical documents and has a government that’s repeatedly called for the elimination of Israel now has nuclear weapons. Personally, I think it’s very easy to see why Jews would be terrified by this. The lesson they’ve learned from history is that the Jews were told in the 1930s to ignore their enemies, that they weren’t as crazy as feared and that they’d be stopped by others before anything bad happened. The Jews of that time listened to this advice and six million of them wound up being turned into ash as a result. The lesson they’ve learned is that when the chips are down no one will stand with the Jews but the Jews and that they need to be very proactive in their own defense. ---
**Author:** ![thelabdude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/dc4da7/32.png) [@thelabdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thelabdude)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2011, 1:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059/67 "2011-11-10T13:20:51Z")
Anybody else remember Dr. Larry Garra? He had his second 15 minutes of fame when he was fired from Grove City College in 1962 for his liberal views. I heard it often enough in class, but can’t get the quiote quite right, but something like ‘‘The truth is almost as important as what people think the truth is.’’ I am too young to remember much of WWII and the Korean War. I do remember the Cuban missle crisis, the Berlin wall, 911, the North Korean atomic tests, and some other stuff. I don’t think any of it is as dangerous as this mess. Does Israel think Iran is close to being able to make an atomic attack on Israel? Does Israel think they will if able? Does Israel think they can survive such an attack? Does Israel care what happens to a world that will let Iran make an atomic attack on them? ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2011, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059/68 "2011-11-10T13:45:17Z")
IMO, Iran has succeeded beyond its wildest dreams, with their nuclear program. To be perfectly factual, they have garnered respect (and fear), with a very minimal investment. Take their centrifuges-yes, they have been enriching uranium-so what? Do we actally know what they are doing with it? And Ahmadinajad-he keeps making bellicose speeches, which mean almost nothing-the man has very little power, and he is actally under attack in Iran. Face it, the Iranian leadership may be extreme, but they are NOT stupid. They know that an attack upon Israel will be met with crushing retaliation-including the destruction of much of what they have spent billions on (the uranium refining factories). I also wonder how much secret negotiations have been going on between the Arab oil states (SA, Quatar, Bahrein,UAE) and Israel. If these places feel imminent danger from Iran, they may well allow the Israelis all kinds of lattitude in their airspace. They key indicator will be the Russians-if they start withdrawing their engineers and technicians from Iran…watch out! ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [November 10, 2011, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059/69 "2011-11-10T16:09:11Z")
> [@thelabdude](#): > > Does Israel think Iran is close to being able to make an atomic attack on Israel? Yes. To deny such would be very naive, at this point. > [@](#): > > Does Israel think they will if able? Probably not. > [@](#): > > Does Israel think they can survive such an attack? Probably yes. > [@](#): > > Does Israel care what happens to a world that will let Iran make an atomic attack on them? Certainly yes. Part of being human is caring about the future of humanity. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2011, 4:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059/70 "2011-11-14T16:16:31Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > I would say, on balance, that Iran is more likely to something catastrophically stupid, because the Israelis have survived this long by never doing that, the potential costs of catastrophe being rather higher in their case. Pretty much every nuclear power has survived by avoiding catastrophic stupidity. Iran has been living with a nuclear Israel for decades, Israel hasn’t had an enemy that actually posed an existential threat for decades. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2011, 4:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059/71 "2011-11-14T16:37:07Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > Pretty much every nuclear power has survived by avoiding catastrophic stupidity. Iran has been living with a nuclear Israel for decades, Israel hasn’t had an enemy that actually posed an existential threat for decades. And what happened the last time they did have an enemy that posed “an existensial threat”? ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2011, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059/72 "2011-11-14T17:48:43Z")
My big fear is that the IAF will launch an attack on Iran-but botch the job-they might destroy the uranium enrichment plants, and start fires that would spread radioactive debris over a wide area…including places like Turkey, Pakistan, Uzbekistand, Russia. Now, we have a catastrophic mess-that the Iranians cannot clean up. What then? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2011, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059/73 "2011-11-14T17:57:22Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > And what happened the last time they did have an enemy that posed “an existensial threat”? They won. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [November 14, 2011, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059/74 "2011-11-14T18:01:27Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > They won. By the skin of their teeth. What’s to the point is that from the Israeli point of view, whenever their enemies have had the opportunity to attack them, whether it’s governments or guerilla organizations they have, even when doing so seemed irrational and self-destructive(IE Hamas launching missiles from Gaza and provoking Cast Lead). ---
**Author:** ![thelabdude](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/dc4da7/32.png) [@thelabdude](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thelabdude)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2011, 1:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059/75 "2011-11-15T01:36:39Z")
> **[Who Is the 12th Imam?](https://www.learnreligions.com/who-is-the-12th-imam-3555177)** > > The president of Iran has wished aloud for the arrival of the 12th Imam, who would come forth in a time of world turmoil. ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2011, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059/76 "2011-11-15T22:49:36Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > And what happened the last time they did have an enemy that posed “an existensial threat”? Did they have nukes back then? Do you think they would have used them? ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [November 15, 2011, 11:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059/77 "2011-11-15T23:06:12Z")
> [@Damuri\_Ajashi](#): > > Did they have nukes back then? Do you think they would have used them? Who is the “they”? Not being snarky, just asking because the Israelis have had lots of different enemies. Are you referring to Nasser, Husseini, Qawukji, Sadat, Arafat, or someone else? ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2011, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059/78 "2011-11-16T04:01:29Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Is Iran at least on good or not-bad terms with its neighbors to the north – Armenia, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan? I’ve never heard of any particular conflict between them, at any rate. Iran has not attacked anyone in over a century. Iraq attacked them in the 8 year war. America overthrew their elected government in the 50s because they threatened to nationalize the oil. Yep, they have been terrible. They can not be nice. They have our oil. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2011, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059/79 "2011-11-16T04:21:37Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Iran has not attacked anyone in over a century. Reasonably certain that you’ve been corrected on this before, if not, let this be the first and last time so you don’t utter that nonsense again: Hezbollah was and still largely is an Iranian creature. The marine barracks bombing, not to mention the Khobar Towers bombing, were both Iranian attacks. And that’s not even counting the fact that Iran has been using Hezbollah to try to subvert an entire country for decades now. Basic factual accuracy is not asking too much. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [November 16, 2011, 5:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059/80 "2011-11-16T05:03:24Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Iran has not attacked anyone in over a century. Iraq attacked them in the 8 year war. America overthrew their elected government in the 50s because they threatened to nationalize the oil. Yep, they have been terrible. > They can not be nice. They have our oil. Wouldn’t you consider attempting to blow up the Iraqi PM an attack? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-iran-which-is-most-likely-to-do-something-catastrophically-stupid/602059.md?page=5)