The invasion cost Iran a million lives, something like three-quarters of their pre-war GDP and I have no idea how much infrastructure. I think they would’ve been much happier just waving some nukes around to scare Saddam off. And just because they won once hardly means that Iran will automatically win everytime they’re invaded (and history hasn’t exactly shown Saddam as the worlds greatest military genius, even when he had a large expensive army, the next guy might be competant).
I don’t think there’s a strong chance, but I don’t think its zero. One of Iran’s big neighbors hates it (Saudi Arabia), two of them are in such a state of flux that I think its too hard to say anything confidently about what Iraq or Afghanistan will do five or ten years down the road. For all we know, in twenty years the state of Kurdistan might have used its oil wealth to have gone from non-existence to the major regional power. And the ex-soviet states aren’t exactly pillars of stability either. And while I don’t think the US will invade, I said the same thing in 2000 when my more liberal friends tried to convince me the new President Bush would come up with some pre-text to invade Iraq. Predictions about the future are hard, and if I were an Iranian general, I’d be worried about the possibility of future invasions as well.
I guess, but I’m usually pretty skeptical of claims that foreign states are so irrational that its worthless to predict how they see the world. We spent most of the Cold War with commentators trying to convince us that the Soviets were so crazy they’d invade Europe despite the fact that it would mean mutual destruction, just to be contradictory. Foreign gov’ts are occasionally stupid, but I don’t think they’re usually out and out irrational, and I get pretty suspicious when foreign policy is presented whose sole justification is “hey, you never know, the other guy could be crazy”.
In the last 30 years amongst Iran and its immediate neighbors, Afghanistan has been invaded twice, Iraq twice, Kuwait once, Iran once and Azerbaijan once. Getting invaded isn’t so unusual, and its not like it needs to happen every other day to be devastating, even if you manage to fight off the invaders.
They also share a border with Pakistan and Russia, both of whom are larger and arguably more powerful then they are (and both armed with nukes). Granted neither state is likely to invade in the near future, but Russia isn’t exactly above invading countries in what it sees as its “back yard” and who knows what Pakistan will do in the future.
And I think its important to realize the Iranians aren’t building nukes all of a sudden because of recent events. Its been an ongoing project since the 80’s, they aren’t building them to ward off a specific gov’t or regime, or because of Ahmadinajad or Katami, or because of Bush or Obama. Its a long term strategy, because while there may be few immediate threats of invasion, in ten years Sunni monarchies will still hate them, Russia will still be a bully, the US will still be playing world policeman and no one knows what Iraq, Pakistan or the ex-Soviets will look like.
I disagree, but the efficacy of nukes in preventing invasions generally probably deserves its own thread and this post is already longer then anyones likely to actually read. Suffice to say, plenty of rational people disagree with you, and as US taxpayer I pay a lot of money sustaining a nuclear arsenal thats supposed to provide a deterant against invasion to us and our allies, so I’d be pretty pissed if the idea is totally crazy.
So while the idea may be wrong, I don’t think you can say the Iranians are irrational for believing it. Plenty of other countries believe it to.
Nukes are pretty limited tools to exert power or intimidation, for much the same reason that my owning a handgun is a pretty limited tool in negotiating the price of a used car. No one really believes your going to use it over anything other then an existential issue.
I don’t necessarily disagree with any of this (other then their being the most powerful military nation in the region, their like, fourth maybe, see above). But I’m arguing against their developing nukes being “catastrophically stupid”. I think they have rational reasons for doing so, and one of those reasons isn’t “lets nuke Israel just because we’re crazy”.
From their perspective, I think its a move that makes sense. From my perspective, I certainly still wish they wouldn’t do it, for all the reasons you mention in your last paragraph.