Yeah, but in the absence of perfect information, how can one’s behaviour ever be completely reasonable? At some point, arbitrary decisions have to be made. Maybe Israel has way more weaponry than it actually needs, if they knew perfectly the strategic capabilities and long-term intentions of the surrounding states. In lieu of this information, I can’t fault Israel for wanting a “we’ll have way too much” policy, as opposed to “we’ll keep just the right amount” (which could unpleasantly turn out in possible hindsight to be “we didn’t have enough”).
I would say, on balance, that Iran is more likely to something catastrophically stupid, because the Israelis have survived this long by never doing that, the potential costs of catastrophe being rather higher in their case.
Certainly.
http://www.exile.ru/articles/detail.php?ARTICLE_ID=6779&IBLOCK_ID=35
It was absolutely mortifying for the top brass to see the Carrier Group sunk since it suggested that the DOD’s strategic vision was moronic. Their decision to order the group “refloated” showed the same mentality that Rumsfeld and Co. showed when they insisted a year later that they could conquer, occupy and pacify Iraq on the cheap with a minimal amount of boots on the ground.
To his credit, General Van Rippen resigned in protest following their decision.
Makes a lot of sense to me.
So how many people in Israel think letting Iran finish their atomic weapons program would be catastrophically stupid? What options do they have to prevent it?
What options do we have to prevent Israel from attacking Iran?
Living in reality will do, just fine.
I’m afraid that’s a rather disingenuous post which ignores that different people’s have different views of reality.
From the point of view of the Israelis a country that chose it’s name to curry favor with Hitler, has a government that’s sponsored the bombings of Synagogues, Jewish community centers, Bat Mitzvahs, Jewish weddings and pizzerias filled with Jewish children, has a government that purports that the Protocols of the Elders of Zion are historical documents and has a government that’s repeatedly called for the elimination of Israel now has nuclear weapons.
Personally, I think it’s very easy to see why Jews would be terrified by this.
The lesson they’ve learned from history is that the Jews were told in the 1930s to ignore their enemies, that they weren’t as crazy as feared and that they’d be stopped by others before anything bad happened. The Jews of that time listened to this advice and six million of them wound up being turned into ash as a result.
The lesson they’ve learned is that when the chips are down no one will stand with the Jews but the Jews and that they need to be very proactive in their own defense.
Anybody else remember Dr. Larry Garra? He had his second 15 minutes of fame when he was fired from Grove City College in 1962 for his liberal views. I heard it often enough in class, but can’t get the quiote quite right, but something like ‘‘The truth is almost as important as what people think the truth is.’’
I am too young to remember much of WWII and the Korean War. I do remember the Cuban missle crisis, the Berlin wall, 911, the North Korean atomic tests, and some other stuff. I don’t think any of it is as dangerous as this mess.
Does Israel think Iran is close to being able to make an atomic attack on Israel?
Does Israel think they will if able?
Does Israel think they can survive such an attack?
Does Israel care what happens to a world that will let Iran make an atomic attack on them?
IMO, Iran has succeeded beyond its wildest dreams, with their nuclear program.
To be perfectly factual, they have garnered respect (and fear), with a very minimal investment. Take their centrifuges-yes, they have been enriching uranium-so what? Do we actally know what they are doing with it?
And Ahmadinajad-he keeps making bellicose speeches, which mean almost nothing-the man has very little power, and he is actally under attack in Iran.
Face it, the Iranian leadership may be extreme, but they are NOT stupid. They know that an attack upon Israel will be met with crushing retaliation-including the destruction of much of what they have spent billions on (the uranium refining factories).
I also wonder how much secret negotiations have been going on between the Arab oil states (SA, Quatar, Bahrein,UAE) and Israel. If these places feel imminent danger from Iran, they may well allow the Israelis all kinds of lattitude in their airspace.
They key indicator will be the Russians-if they start withdrawing their engineers and technicians from Iran…watch out!
Yes. To deny such would be very naive, at this point.
Probably not.
Probably yes.
Certainly yes. Part of being human is caring about the future of humanity.
Pretty much every nuclear power has survived by avoiding catastrophic stupidity. Iran has been living with a nuclear Israel for decades, Israel hasn’t had an enemy that actually posed an existential threat for decades.
And what happened the last time they did have an enemy that posed “an existensial threat”?
My big fear is that the IAF will launch an attack on Iran-but botch the job-they might destroy the uranium enrichment plants, and start fires that would spread radioactive debris over a wide area…including places like Turkey, Pakistan, Uzbekistand, Russia.
Now, we have a catastrophic mess-that the Iranians cannot clean up.
What then?
They won.
By the skin of their teeth.
What’s to the point is that from the Israeli point of view, whenever their enemies have had the opportunity to attack them, whether it’s governments or guerilla organizations they have, even when doing so seemed irrational and self-destructive(IE Hamas launching missiles from Gaza and provoking Cast Lead).
Did they have nukes back then? Do you think they would have used them?
Who is the “they”?
Not being snarky, just asking because the Israelis have had lots of different enemies.
Are you referring to Nasser, Husseini, Qawukji, Sadat, Arafat, or someone else?
Iran has not attacked anyone in over a century. Iraq attacked them in the 8 year war. America overthrew their elected government in the 50s because they threatened to nationalize the oil. Yep, they have been terrible.
They can not be nice. They have our oil.
Reasonably certain that you’ve been corrected on this before, if not, let this be the first and last time so you don’t utter that nonsense again: Hezbollah was and still largely is an Iranian creature. The marine barracks bombing, not to mention the Khobar Towers bombing, were both Iranian attacks. And that’s not even counting the fact that Iran has been using Hezbollah to try to subvert an entire country for decades now.
Basic factual accuracy is not asking too much.
Wouldn’t you consider attempting to blow up the Iraqi PM an attack?