# Israel to attack Iran this fall?! **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 18, 2011, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514 "2011-07-18T23:29:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/1 "2011-07-18T23:29:24Z")
[So says this ex-CIA dude:](http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/07/201171775828434786.html) > [@](#): > > A longtime CIA officer who spent 21 years in the Middle East is predicting that Israel will bomb Iran in the fall, dragging the United States into another major war and endangering US military and civilian personnel (and other interests) throughout the Middle East and beyond. > > Earlier this week, Robert Baer appeared on the provocative KPFK Los Angeles show Background Briefing, hosted by Ian Masters. It was there that he predicted that Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is likely to ignite a war with Iran in the very near future. > > Robert Baer has had a storied career, including a stint in Iraq in the 1990s where he organised opposition to Saddam Hussein. (He was recalled after being accused of trying to organise Saddam’s assassination.) Upon his retirement, he received a top decoration for meritorious service. > > Baer is no ordinary CIA operative. George Clooney won an Oscar for playing a character based on Baer in the film Syriana (Baer also wrote the book). > > He obviously won’t name many of his sources in Israel, the United States, and elsewhere, but the few he has named are all Israeli security figures who have publically warned that Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak are hell-bent on war. > > **Most former Mossad chiefs wary of Netanyahu** > > Baer was especially impressed by the unprecedented warning about Netanyahu’s plans by former Mossad chief Meir Dagan. Dagan left the Israeli intelligence agency in September 2010. Two months ago, he predicted that Israel would attack and said that doing so would be “the stupidest thing” he could imagine. According to Haaretz: > > > [@](#): > > > > When asked about what would happen in the aftermath of an Israeli attack Dagan said that: “It will be followed by a war with Iran. It is the kind of thing where we know how it starts, but not how it will end.” > > > > The Iranians have the capability to fire rockets at Israel for a period of months, and Hizbollah could fire tens of thousands of grad rockets and hundreds of long-range missiles, he said. > > According to Ben Caspit of the Israeli daily Maariv, Dagan’s blasts at Israel’s political leadership are significant not only because Mossad chiefs, in office or retired, traditionally have kept their lips sealed, but also because Dagan is very conservative on security matters. > > Caspit writes that Dagan is “one of the most rightwing militant people ever born here. … When this man says that the leadership has no vision and is irresponsible, we should stop sleeping soundly at night”. Chilling stuff . . . But, this story is from Aljazeera, a source I would expect to be fair except where Israel is concerned, and I don’t believe even Netanyahu could be **that** crazystupidevil! But, I don’t live there. Anybody worried? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/2 "2011-07-18T23:30:43Z")
:o Mods, please move thread to GD! ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/3 "2011-07-18T23:30:48Z")
The factual answer to your question is: Yes, some people are worried. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/4 "2011-07-18T23:54:12Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > [So says this ex-CIA dude:](http://english.aljazeera.net/indepth/opinion/2011/07/201171775828434786.html) > > Chilling stuff . . . But, this story is from Aljazeera, a source I would expect to be fair except where Israel is concerned, and I don’t believe even Netanyahu could be **that** crazystupidevil! But, I don’t live there. Anybody worried? Israel did this to Iraq in 1981 and it turned out fine. It may be that it eliminates future problems. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 11:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/5 "2011-07-18T23:59:39Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Israel did this to Iraq in 1981 and it turned out fine. It may be that it eliminates future problems. Don’t go there. Experts wargamed the “limited airstrike on Iran” scenario [in 2007,](http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2004/12/will-iran-be-next/3599/) and [again in 2010,](http://www.mcclatchydc.com/2010/02/21/87061/war-game-shows-how-attacking-iran.html) and nobody can see any way it does **not** set off a general regional war. ---
**Author:** ![Cheshire\_Human](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/5f8ce5/32.png) [@Cheshire\_Human](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheshire_Human)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/6 "2011-07-19T00:06:35Z")
How would Iran carry out a war against Israel, when they don’t share a border? First you have Iraqi airspace (and groundspace, so infantry and armor operations are right out), presumably controlled by the US. Then you have Syria, Jordan, and Saudi Arabia in the way. Maybe the Israelis could conduct a one-off airstrike, if they can get everyone in the way to close their eyes. But anything even remotely resembling a war? Tell me how it’s going to be done. I don’t see how it is at all possible. Looks like bullshit that depends on the target audience being unable to read a simple map. ETA: Same warfare problem works in the other direction. Just reverse the countries in the way. The problems remain the same. Still bullshit designed to sell news/books. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/7 "2011-07-19T00:13:01Z")
> [@Cheshire\_Human](#): > > How would Iran carry out a war against Israel, when they don’t share a border? Iran responding to an attack from any source can make a **lot** of trouble in the countries it **does** border before it even thinks of getting around to Israel. America being Israel’s ally, the U.S.-occupied ones (Iraq, Afghanistan) are fair game by definition, to Iran. And the Iranians can see clearly enough how overstretched are our forces in the region. ---
**Author:** ![Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e36b37/32.png) [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/8 "2011-07-19T01:13:39Z")
The limited wars we’ve had in the Middle East have been bad enough. I’d say that anybody in the military with a sense of self-preservation should be scared out of their wits at the prospect of a general war in the Middle East. Does anyone think that it could possibly stay conventional? I doubt Israel would go first, but you can be sure that (assuming they have nuclear weapons, a safe assumption) they would certainly retaliate. ---
**Author:** ![Argent\_Towers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e8c25b/32.png) [@Argent\_Towers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Argent_Towers)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/9 "2011-07-19T01:42:08Z")
Has Iranian leadership ever stated that they want to destroy Israel? I know that many other groups _have_ stated an intent to destroy Israel, and several countries _did_ attempt to destroy Israel in the past. If Iran really does have a nuclear program, I can understand why Israel would be concerned. And as **Qin** pointed out, they did destroy Iraq’s nuclear program back in the 80s. I don’t see why America would have to get involved in a war, if one did break out, between Iran and Israel. The US should stay out of this shit. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 1:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/10 "2011-07-19T01:50:09Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Iran responding to an attack from any source can make a **lot** of trouble in the countries it **does** border before it even thinks of getting around to Israel. America being Israel’s ally, the U.S.-occupied ones (Iraq, Afghanistan) are fair game by definition, to Iran. And the Iranians can see clearly enough how overstretched are our forces in the region. I suspect that, if the Iranian forces attacked US forces in response to being attacked by Israel, most Americans would consider it an unprovoked attack against us, and support the US responding fully and in kind. I also suspect that if the Iranians limited themselves to a non-nuclear exchange of missiles with Israel, most Americans would be content to sit it out. While it’s true that we’re short of man power and money right now - I think that would change dramatically if Iran responded by attacking us directly. That said, I certainly hope it doesn’t come to that. As for the article, I doubt that anyone who has genuine knowledge of Israel’s plans for a surprise attack is willing to chat about it on public radio. An American former CIA official? He’s just guessing. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/11 "2011-07-19T02:56:45Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > Israel did this to Iraq in 1981 and it turned out fine. Which is why Iran hardened and dispersed its nuclear assets, to make such an attack impractical. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/12 "2011-07-19T02:59:47Z")
> [@Merneith](#): > > I suspect that, if the Iranian forces attacked US forces in response to being attacked by Israel . . . Ya know they gotta attack **somebody,** if they’re bombed, not attacking somebody wouldn’t be an option. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 3:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/13 "2011-07-19T03:01:28Z")
> [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](#): > > I doubt Israel would go first . . . That’s what the thread’s about. **Israel** ain’t that crazy, but **Netanyahu** just might be. Is he? I dunno, he’s just a guy I know from the news and stuff. Any Israelis have an opinion? And what about Barak? Does it make it more dangerous to have him in the mix at this point? ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/14 "2011-07-19T03:08:54Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Anybody worried? Nope. Knowledgeable insiders have predicted 7 of the last zero Israeli bombings of Iran. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/15 "2011-07-19T03:21:13Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > That’s what the thread’s about. **Israel** ain’t that crazy, but **Netanyahu** just might be. Is he? Highly (if not absurdly) unlikely but it can be useful to let the Iranians _think_ so. Worked kinda for Nixon. ---
**Author:** ![Argent\_Towers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e8c25b/32.png) [@Argent\_Towers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Argent_Towers)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 3:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/16 "2011-07-19T03:48:59Z")
Seems to me that the Iranians and other Islamic countries are more dangerous than anyone Nixon ever faced (in other words, Communists) because even Communists didn’t think that they would all be sent to heaven if they died bringing about the end of America. Whereas the Islamic clerics and those who follow them do seem to have no actual fear of death if it is the death of a martyr. I think they’d be happy to let their whole country die if they thought that death would be the price to pay for nuking Israel and destroying “Satan.” This is much scarier to me than people who merely thought America had the wrong kind of economic system. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/17 "2011-07-19T04:29:55Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Ya know they gotta attack **somebody,** if they’re bombed, not attacking somebody wouldn’t be an option. Yeah … but I’m not convinced that attacking US forces is a strong play for them, even if we’re temporarily more convenient than Israel. In thinking it over, I suspect Iran would be more likely to retaliate via their Hezbollah troops, probably with coordinating attacks from Hamas. Why fight the US with their own Iranian troops when they can get a bunch of patsies to fight Israel directly? US might get dragged into that mess if it looks like Israel is threatened with destruction - but the Israelis could probably hold off a short attack on their own. If the Israelis were to attack and destroy Iran’s nuclear program - I suspect general world opinion would be quietly on their side, just like last time they did it. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 4:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/18 "2011-07-19T04:37:35Z")
> [@Argent\_Towers](#): > > Seems to me that the Iranians and other Islamic countries are more dangerous than anyone Nixon ever faced (in other words, Communists) because even Communists didn’t think that they would all be sent to heaven if they died bringing about the end of America. Whereas the Islamic clerics and those who follow them do seem to have no actual fear of death if it is the death of a martyr. I think they’d be happy to let their whole country die if they thought that death would be the price to pay for nuking Israel and destroying “Satan.” Nonsense. They’ve avoided anything that could provoke anything like that. Martyrdom is for the cannon fodder, not the leadership. And the Communists were far more dangerous because they actually had the power to destroy us. Despite all the attempts of the Right to turn Islam into the New Red Scare, they don’t begin to have the same level of power as the Communists. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/19 "2011-07-19T04:38:38Z")
> [@Merneith](#): > > If the Israelis were to attack and destroy Iran’s nuclear program - I suspect general world opinion would be quietly on their side, just like last time they did it. Can’t happen. The Iranians have learned from Iraq’s experience and bomb-hardened their nuclear facilities. And I very much doubt all the Israeli planes would make it home again. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 5:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/20 "2011-07-19T05:29:32Z")
The fact that this has been publicly reported means that it will not happen. It is a political tactic, possibly to keep the US presence in Iraq. Israel has already lost it’s opportunity to conduct a useful pre-emptive strike against Iran. If they do strike, it will be with smart weapons, possibly with a figher jet escort, but the fighter jets won’t place themselves in as high risk situation over Iran. I think Israel is too busy right now trying to prepare for changes in Egypt to waste military resources on Iran. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514.md?page=2)