# Israel to attack Iran this fall?! **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 18, 2011, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514 "2011-07-18T23:29:24Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [July 19, 2011, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/41 "2011-07-19T23:27:20Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > I haven’t read the article yet, but based on my familiarity with the people involved, I don’t think it will happen. Bibi’s a coward, a master of inaction - he’ll never take any risk if he doesn’t absolutely have to; that’s why he hasn’t bombed Iran, and that’s why he hasn’t made any progress with the peace process. Barak would do it - he’s an insufferable hotshot who’s convinced he’s twice as smart as anyone else - but he can’t move Netanyahu without the support of the defense establishment, which he doesn’t have. > > So it’s just saber rattling. Actually, what with Stuxnet and the covert war Israel has been waging against them being as successful as it apparently are, there’s a good chance that the Iranians can be stopped without any overt force. So, what you’re saying is: Need to take care of Iran? There’s an App for that! ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2011, 12:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/42 "2011-07-20T00:15:11Z")
Why exactly should we give Robert Baer’s opinions this much credence? He’s a former CIA employee. I have to assume he has no special access to Israeli military plans. And I assume his anonymous sources are not Israeli generals who have chosen to betray their country by revealing military secrets to Baer. So what we probably have are Baer and some other people speculating on what they think Netanyahu might do. Which means that what we’re seeing is at least as much a reflection of what Baer thinks as it is of what Netanyahu thinks. This is really no different than having Bill O’Reilly predicting that Barack Obama is planning on nationalizing the nation’s health care system in 2012. O’Reilly may genuinely believe it’s true and he may have spoken with other people who believe it’s true. But they didn’t hear it from anyone who’s actually in the Obama administration. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2011, 9:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/43 "2011-07-20T09:09:53Z")
> [@Dissonance](#): > > The David vs Goliath myth is just that - a myth. By the end of the war Israel had fielded an army of 115,000, outnumbering the combined forces of all of its enemies. What’s remarkable is that Israel was able to mobilize a larger army from a much smaller population base. As for being outclassed, only the British officered Arab Legion was an equal to the IDF. By the end of the war, yes. But early on the Israeli army was much, much smaller. Israeli had a much worse position: the Negev was completely undefendable, being mostly open desert and open to Egypt. In the North, Syria and Lebanon had the high ground. Jerusalem, which lay in a defendable position, was completely cut off, along with 10,000 Israelis. Not to mention that the Arab armies had artillery, planes, tanks, heavy machine guns, armored infantry, and more. The Arab Armies had a total of 40 tanks, 300 artillery pieces, and 47 Fighters, while Israel had a single tank, 30 artillery pieces, and a few recon planes. Armored Carriers owned by Israel were improvised, built by piling armor onto trucks. Arabs had carriers specifically built for war. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2011, 10:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/44 "2011-07-20T10:35:05Z")
> [@Dissonance](#): > > The David vs Goliath myth is just that - a myth. By the end of the war Israel had fielded an army of 115,000, outnumbering the combined forces of all of its enemies. What’s remarkable is that Israel was able to mobilize a larger army from a much smaller population base. As for being outclassed, only the British officered Arab Legion was an equal to the IDF. Nevertheless, the economic and population advantages belonged to the Arab nations. I suppose the Israelis were willing to die to defend Israel, while the Arab leadership was willing to have the Arab rank-and-file die to attack it. My money’s generally on the side with more overall motivation. ---
**Author:** ![clairobscur](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/839c29/32.png) [@clairobscur](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/clairobscur)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2011, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/45 "2011-07-20T13:36:34Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > Armored Carriers owned by Israel were improvised, built by piling armor onto trucks. . As shown in Talonsoft’s “Divided Ground : the Arab-Israeli wars 1948-1973”. I know it’s not the game forum, but I figured that some might be interested in this very good and unjustly ignored tactical computer wargame. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2011, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/46 "2011-07-20T14:36:20Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Why exactly should we give Robert Baer’s opinions this much credence? He’s a former CIA employee. Exactly – isn’t this sort of analysis the CIA’s kinda business? ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2011, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/47 "2011-07-20T15:34:20Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Exactly – isn’t this sort of analysis the CIA’s kinda business? Yes, it is. But what does that have to do with this situation? Baer hasn’t worked for the CIA in fourteen years. Meir Dagan is also no longer in service. This is a couple of retired guys expressing their opinions about politics. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2011, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/48 "2011-07-20T15:37:40Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > Yes, it is. But what does that have to do with this situation? Baer hasn’t worked for the CIA in fourteen years. Meir Dagan is also no longer in service. > > This is a couple of retired guys expressing their opinions about politics. Treating **ex** -insiders as authorities in their fields is nothing new, we see it on the news networks all the time. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2011, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/49 "2011-07-20T15:40:03Z")
Yes, but taking them seriously is another matter. Don’t worry, BG…eventually SOMEONE will attack Iran, and then you’ll be able to say ‘I told you so!’. 😉 -XT ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2011, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/50 "2011-07-20T16:35:55Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Treating **ex** -insiders as authorities in their fields is nothing new, we see it on the news networks all the time. We’ve seen multiple analyses that pundits are frequently if not overwhelmingly wrong in their predictions, too. The kind of person who would get the attention of a news network is the one who can make snappy, definitive and dire claims, while the one that offers up more thoughtful, detailed and realistic possibilities riddled with necessary qualifiers won’t get called back a second time. ---
**Author:** ![Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/aca169/32.png) [@Inbred\_Mm\_domesticus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Inbred_Mm_domesticus)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2011, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/51 "2011-07-20T17:46:48Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Treating **ex** -insiders as authorities in their fields is nothing new, we see it on the news networks all the time. As a news-entertainment organization, which ex-insiders are you going to have come on your shows: (1) the one that sedately states why Israel is not going to attack Iran, or (2) the interesting guy who makes baseless claims that feed into the fantasies of those who fully expect to see the Middle East engulfed in flames (initiated, of course, by right wing ideologies). You know that KPFK has got a peace symbol in its website title bar? Looking through their archives have they ever done anything other than spread paranoia over right-wing governments? In addition, the analyses in this thread, from every angle you can think of, show how silly this fantasy is. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2011, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/52 "2011-07-20T20:11:43Z")
\*\*Israel to attack Iran this fall?! \*\* Geez, BG, again? [You](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=466801&highlight=Iran) [have](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=429020&highlight=Iran) [been](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=422040&highlight=Iran) [telling](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=414196&highlight=Iran) [us](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=404827&highlight=Iran) [that Iran](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=354727&highlight=Iran) [is just about to be attacked](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=297457&highlight=Iran) [for the last eight years.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=275191&highlight=Iran) Look, we get it - Israel and the US are being mean to Iran. Poor Iran. Boo hoo. Sheesh. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2011, 8:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/53 "2011-07-20T20:30:58Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > \*\*Israel to attack Iran this fall?! \*\* > > Geez, BG, again? > > [You](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=466801&highlight=Iran) [have](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=429020&highlight=Iran) [been](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=422040&highlight=Iran) [telling](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=414196&highlight=Iran) [us](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=404827&highlight=Iran) [that Iran](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=354727&highlight=Iran) [is just about to be attacked](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=297457&highlight=Iran) [for the last eight years.](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=275191&highlight=Iran) > > Look, we get it - Israel and the US are being mean to Iran. Poor Iran. Boo hoo. > > Sheesh. > > Regards, > Shodan See post #39. (N.B.: The **adults** are the fools in that story.) ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [July 20, 2011, 10:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/54 "2011-07-20T22:38:06Z")
> [@Bryan\_Ekers](#): > > We’ve seen multiple analyses that pundits are frequently if not overwhelmingly wrong in their predictions, too. The kind of person who would get the attention of a news network is the one who can make snappy, definitive and dire claims, while the one that offers up more thoughtful, detailed and realistic possibilities riddled with necessary qualifiers won’t get called back a second time. Yes, very much to this. Lots of people put way too much faith in the “experts” used as talking heads. To add to what you’re saying, most of the time such “experts” are still trusted even when they’re proven wrong repeatedly. Moreover, I’m not sure how qualified Baer is to be considered “an expert” on Israel? Does he even speak Hebrew? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2011, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/55 "2011-07-21T00:08:32Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > Moreover, I’m not sure how qualified Baer is to be considered “an expert” on Israel? > > Does he even speak Hebrew? I dunno, but [he speaks English, Arabic, French, German, Persian, Russian, Tajik and Baloch.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Baer) Should be able to find his way around Israel. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2011, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/56 "2011-07-21T00:13:18Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > I dunno, but [he speaks English, Arabic, French, German, Persian, Russian, Tajik and Baloch.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_Baer) Should be able to find his way around Israel. People would consider it moronic to classify someone as an expert on the US if they couldn’t speak English or an expert on Mexico if they couldn’t speak Spanish. Similarly, it’s moronic to consider someone who can’t speak Hebrew an expert on Israel. Now, if you want to argue that someone who doesn’t speak Spanish can still be an expert on Mexico or someone who can’t speak Farsi is an expert on Iran then go ahead and explain your reasoning. I suspect you’ll have a hard time finding Mexicans who will agree with you. ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2011, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/57 "2011-07-21T00:23:23Z")
There were probably a bunch of Russian experts on the USA during the Cold War who didn’t speak English. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2011, 12:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/58 "2011-07-21T00:28:27Z")
> [@carnivorousplant](#): > > There were probably a bunch of Russian experts on the USA during the Cold War who didn’t speak English. With all due respect that’s preposterous. People in Russia would have laughed at anyone who claimed to he an expert on the US who couldn’t speak English. Furthermore the overwhelming majority of educated Russians can speak English. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2011, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/59 "2011-07-21T19:59:05Z")
This [piece](http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2084380,00.html)makes a convincing argument that Robert Baer was only indulging in speculation without any real inside knowledge of the matter. The author of the piece: Robert Baer… ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [July 21, 2011, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514/60 "2011-07-21T22:12:46Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > This [piece](http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,2084380,00.html)makes a convincing argument that Robert Baer was only indulging in speculation without any real inside knowledge of the matter. > > The author of the piece: Robert Baer… But how do we know that Robert Baer actually knows what Robert Baer is thinking? Maybe he’s just basing his opinion on third hand reports about what his thoughts are. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-to-attack-iran-this-fall/589514.md?page=4)