first: yes, the current leadership of Iran has openly stated that it intends to erase Israel from the map.
What the people who think any atrack would end in complete chaos are missing is that the Muslim nations in the middle east don’t like each other. At all. Once in a while they team up to attack Israel together, but even then, while working together, they don’t do so gladly or effectually. This is one of the main reason Israel was able to win its War of Independence, when they were outnumbered, outflanked, outgunned, outclassed, and probably a few more out-somethings. Had the Arab armies been working together well, they would have been nearly unstoppable. Instead, you j
had things like the King of Egypt working against Jordan to ensure the Jordanian king isn’t hailed as a hero. This is also the reason that in 1981 when Israeli fighters were on the way to thier famous raid and were spotted by the king of Jordan from his yacht, he did not call his “close allies” of Iraq to warn them: he knew that if Israel was gone, he would come next.
Indeed. The land known now as Palestine used to be controlled by Egypt and Jordan and you never had anyone in any other Arab countries back then saying “Free Palestine” and waving the flag in support of their supposed bretheren in Palestine. But once the land becomes controlled by Jews, all of a sudden all of them can unite over that cause and demand that the Jews be expelled from Palestine. But you didn’t have Iranians calling for Jordan and Egypt to disengage from Palestine back when those folks ran the place.
Exactly. Same reason while all the guys calling for a free Palestine and land for all Arabs are forcing those Palestinians who left Israel (at the other nations’ own urging!) to stay in refugee camps rather then letting them have free movement through their “allied” countries.
First of all it's a huge stretch to say that Ahmadinejad is the real leader of Iran especially when it comes to high security matters. Secondly it was perfectly clear from the context of his statement that he did not mean the physical destruction of Israel. What he meant was a one-state solution which has always been position of the current Iranian regime which has obviously never recognized Israel. If there is any country in the Middle East that has made veiled nuclear threats it's Israel.
I too am skeptical of this latest statement. There have been these stories about Israel attacking Iran for years now and the longer that time passes the less plausible they become. The Israelis aren’t completely stupid especially the people who run their intelligence and military.
In the unlikely even that Israel does attack Iran it will probably be a disaster. At best Israel will damage Iran’s nuclear assets not destroy them. However they will strengthen the radicals in the regime for the long run and they will push much harder to build nuclear weapons as opposed to just enriching uranium like Iran is doing now. Iran’s exact response is hard to predict but some kind of general mid-east conflagration is likely with utterly disastrous consequences for the world economy. Oil could hit 300 a barrel and given the fragile state of the financial markets you could well have a second financial crisis. You will certainly have a second recession and millions will lose their jobs in the US itself.
The importance of Israel as a scrapegoat for the existing power structure in much of the Middle East should not be underestimated. Let’s face it without periodically getting their citizens in a frenzy over the Israel and the Palestinian situation the government of Iran might have to deal more closely with social and economic problems within their own borders.
Dagan doesn’t strike me as an objective observer. He was sort of fired by Bibi earlier this year after screwing up so publicly with those forged foreign passports, so it’s hard not to wonder whether his warnings are driven by genuine concern over Israel’s possible actions or just a desire to stir up political trouble for Netanyahu.
Baer is strongly left-of-center on Israel issues. NTTAWWT, but I guess I’d wonder how solid his sources into the Netanyahu government are likely to be.
The David vs Goliath myth is just that - a myth. By the end of the war Israel had fielded an army of 115,000, outnumbering the combined forces of all of its enemies. What’s remarkable is that Israel was able to mobilize a larger army from a much smaller population base. As for being outclassed, only the British officered Arab Legion was an equal to the IDF.
Dude, that’s what the article which you posted at the start of this thread, and which you called “chilling”, is proposing.
So apparently the Iranian facilities are not completely impervious to Israeli warplanes, at least according to the guy in your article, to whom you seem to give credence.
People have been talking about Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear plants for years now. As I said above, I think world opinion of such a move wouldn’t amount to much more than a hearty “tsk, tsk”, just like the last two times they did it. And I don’t think Iran would turn around and attack the US troops nearby, because, after all, they’re nearby. Like Der Tris says, martyrdom’s for the little people. All much ado about nothing, imo.
There is no doubt in my mind that Ahmadinejad would be absolutely thrilled if every living Jew, worldwide, was struck down dead tomorrow by Allah’s Fearsome Wrath—The hatred that he (and many of the other Iranian leadership) has shown regarding all Jewish people (not just Israeli’s) is chilling.
Israel can’t tolerate an atomic attack by Iran. If they ever get to where they think an attack is the only option, they will do it. When your survival is at stake, you don’t fret over consequences.
I think Obama needs to tell the people of Iran that is they ever let their leaders attack Israel, they will die. It will not be a glorious death. There will be no body to bury, and if there was, nobody to bury it.
So you’re proposing that Israel will start a war it can’t win … by attacking a target it can’t hurt … and then Iran will do the same thing by attacking US troops?
I don’t know man. I guess at least I learned to spell Israel in this thread. A before E. So I guess that’s something.
Just that. Except, I’m not proposing – Robert Baer is proposing – I’m asking: Is he right? Are Netanyahu and Barak really like that? Is Likud really like that?
One thing I’m sure of, because experts who wargamed it are sure: There is no scenario where Israel bombs Iran and that’s where the fighting ends. The only uncertain question is, will Israel bomb Iran?
Oh good…another ‘Israel to attack Iran this fall?! This time it’s FOR REAL!!!11!!!one1!!!’ thread. I miss all of the threads about Bush readying to attack Iran threads since Obama became the Prez…
All this is true, but in terms of equipment - tanks, artillary, planes, machine guns - the Arab armies massively outgunned the Israelis. The IDF may have fought like a regular army, but at least at the beginning of the war, it was armed like a guerilla force.
I haven’t read the article yet, but based on my familiarity with the people involved, I don’t think it will happen. Bibi’s a coward, a master of inaction - he’ll never take any risk if he doesn’t absolutely have to; that’s why he hasn’t bombed Iran, and that’s why he hasn’t made any progress with the peace process. Barak would do it - he’s an insufferable hotshot who’s convinced he’s twice as smart as anyone else - but he can’t move Netanyahu without the support of the defense establishment, which he doesn’t have.
So it’s just saber rattling. Actually, what with Stuxnet and the covert war Israel has been waging against them being as successful as it apparently are, there’s a good chance that the Iranians can be stopped without any overt force.