# Israel vs Hezbollah...who won? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [August 16, 2006, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901 "2006-08-16T02:01:27Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901/1 "2006-08-16T02:01:27Z")
For now the ceasefire seems to be holding. Obviously the ‘war’ was inconclusive. What this usually means (certainly in this case) is that everyone is claiming victory. What I’d like to see is some debate (actual debate) from the various sides one who won, who lost, and why. For reference here is a time article that gives THEIR analysis of this question: > [@](#): > > Who Really Won the War? > Analysis: Everyone is claiming victory. But there’s a lot more left of Hizballah’s fighting ability than Israel and the U.S. had hoped > [@](#): > > Scoring the Truce > > The fighting ostensibly triggered by the soldiers’ capture has left hundreds of Lebanese killed — mostly civilians, although Hizballah and Israel dispute the number of fighters slain — almost 1 million displaced and Lebanon’s economy shattered; it has left 118 Israeli soldiers dead in combat and 39 civilians killed by Hizballah rocket barrages that fell in Israeli cities until the last hours of the month-long war, and forced as many as 1 million Israelis to spend much of that month living in bomb shelters. And yet, as the guns go silent, those two Israeli soldiers remain captives of Hizballah. > > Their fate will be settled later, probably in negotiations between Israel and the Lebanese government on behalf of Hizballah, and the resultant deal will inevitably involve some kind of prisoner exchange. The soldiers’ fate appears unlikely, however, to hold up the cease-fire. Within days, Lebanese Army troops (eventually numbering 15,000) will begin moving into southern Lebanon, later supported by a beefed-up U.N. peacekeeping force (which will also number 15,000), as Israel vacates the area. Hizballah has agreed to the truce in which it ends attacks on Israel and refrains from bearing arms south of the Litani River. Issues ranging from the fate of the prisoners to the disputed Sheba Farms area and the question of disarming Hizballah in line with previous U.N. resolutions are left to future discussions. > [@](#): > > What Israel Wanted; What Israel Got > > While the truce certainly restricts Hizballah’s military activities in southern Lebanon, it falls substantially short of the initial Israeli goal of crushing Hizballah as a military entity and prompting the rest of Lebanese society to turn against the organization because of the destruction by Israel that its actions provoked. Hizballah defined success as its forces simply surviving the Israeli onslaught intact, and exacting a substantial price from the Israelis for their offensive. The U.S. endorsed Israel’s objectives — viewing Hizballah as nothing more than a proxy for Iran and Syria — and sought diplomatic cover for Israel by rallying Arab support against Hizballah and initially delaying calls for a cease-fire to give Israel more time to finish off Hizballah militarily. A genuine cease-fire would have to address the root cause of the conflict, said President Bush, by which he meant disarming Hizballah. And, he and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice pointed out, such a cease-fire could not be allowed to create a “vacuum” in southern Lebanon into which Hizballah could simply return. > [@](#): > > Who Will Disarm Hizballah? > > Certainly Hizballah is voluntarily abiding by the cease-fire, but it is doing so very much on its own terms. Not only is it refusing to even discuss disarming right now, it appears to be reaching an agreement with the Lebanese government under which it would refrain from displaying its weapons in southern Lebanon and effectively keep them hidden. And right now, neither the Israelis nor the Lebanese Army nor the mooted U.N. force appears to have any intention of forcibly disarming the movement. > > Israel has little appetite for keeping its forces in southern Lebanon, where they will become increasingly vulnerable to guerrilla attack. Rather than going after the Hizballah arms caches, rocket arsenals and bunkers in the areas they control, Israel has ordered its troops simply to defend themselves from direct attack. To systematically pursue Hizballah fighters south of the Litani would effectively restart the war, and add to the Israeli casualty toll in pursuit of limited gains. > [@](#): > > To Fight Another Day? > > Although Hizballah will now have to cede control of the border area, and has suffered the loss of an indeterminate number of fighters and missiles, it nonetheless lives (potentially) to fight another day, and to dictate the terms on which it will observe the truce. The Lebanese government doesn’t appear to have much enthusiasm for confronting Hizballah on the disarmament issue, mindful of the fact that the group has emerged politically stronger than ever, particularly among its Shi’ite base, and seeking a showdown over disarmament could provoke another ruinous civil war. > > Hizballah, moreover, appears concerned about avoiding civil strife and the collapse of a government in which it retains substantial influence. It may actually welcome a respite from war to cement its relationship with its battered base by focusing on welfare and reconstruction work — and, of course, to prepare its forces for the next battle. So, Time seems to be of the opinion that Hezbollah nominally won, as Israel was unable to achieve its own military goals, while Hezbollah’s goals were simply to survive intact to fight again another day. What are the thoughts of the folks here on the 'dope? Who, if anyone, won…or is this just the deep breath before another plunge? -XT ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901/2 "2006-08-16T02:07:53Z")
:smack: Forgot to post the link for that Time article. Its [here](http://www.time.com/time/world/article/0,8599,1227264,00.html). -XT ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901/3 "2006-08-16T02:29:45Z")
Nobody won. Everyone lost. Same as usual. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![treis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bc79bd/32.png) [@treis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/treis)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901/4 "2006-08-16T02:32:02Z")
It’s too soon to call at this point, but I’d say it’s leaning towards Hezbollah. Israel has at least a few scenarios that they would be happy with. The best would be Lebanon asserting control over the south and disarming Hezbollah, creating a stable and peaceful northern border for Israel. A bit below that would be having southern Lebanon occupied by an international force with teeth. That would provide Israel with security, but not stability. The last scenario that would be considered a victory is a severe weakening of Hezbollah. At this point none of those aims have been achieved. Hezbollah has not been seriously weakened, as evidenced by the 200 rockets they fired a few days ago. Whether Hezbollah is disarmed, and power is asserted over S. Lebanon remains to be seen, but I have serious doubts that Lebanon or the international community has the commitment to breaking them. Hezbollah probably won’t get anything concrete out of this. They won’t get Sheeba farms back, they won’t get any prisoners, and their territory will likely be occupied. The last one seems like a concrete loss, but it probably will end up being a gain. If it’s Israel occupying Lebanon then they get a huge PR boost and gain stature. If it’s the Lebanese army or some U.N. deal then I don’t see them being seriously bothered. That force will simply end up like the current U.N. force in S. Lebanon. Despite not getting anything concrete out of this war, Hezbollah has scored a huge moral/propoganda victory. Lebanese, and the rest of the M.E. is pretty damn pissed off at Israel at this point. With thousands dead, millions displaced, and countless homes destroyed the recruiting grounds for Hezbollah are going to be much riper. This boost will strengthen their support with the local population, but that still doesn’t give them any sort of power over Israel. So they are victors in this fight, but they didn’t really win anything. Let’s be real here. All that is going to come out of this is 1000+ dead people and more wounded, immense damage to the infrastructure of Lebanon, and the people on each side of the conflict are just more pissed off at each other. This is no more than another page in the sorry story that is the Middle East. ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901/5 "2006-08-16T02:32:18Z")
Hezbollah won. Israel made itself look bad to the rest of the world, provided Hezbollah with enormous numbers of potential recruits, solidified Hezbollah’s power base in Lebanon, and accomplished essentially nothing. It also made itself look weak by failing to smash Hezbollah. ---
**Author:** ![cmkeller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cmkeller/32/118_2.png) [@cmkeller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cmkeller)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901/6 "2006-08-16T02:33:39Z")
I agree with Time’s assessment. Hezbollah still has its guns (albeit farther from Israel’s borders than before), and the Israeli soldiers are still captive. ---
**Author:** ![Squink](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/b5e925/32.png) [@Squink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Squink)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 2:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901/7 "2006-08-16T02:44:59Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > Nobody won. Iran may have, in that Hezbollah demonstrated that its guerilla tactics are effective against western style forces. > [@](#): > > (Iran’s) planning for an unconventional or guerrilla warfare campaign of resistance is far advanced and its confidence that it would prove ultimately successful has been greatly reinforced by the ongoing insurgency in Iraq and the resistance shown by Hezbollah in Lebanon. > > In recognition of this, the US may be losing interest in the vast commitment needed for an invasion and the strain this would undoubtedly place on its already overstretched armed forces. [here, with an interesting summary of Iran’s military capacities](http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/HH01Ak02.html) ---
**Author:** ![treis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bc79bd/32.png) [@treis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/treis)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901/8 "2006-08-16T03:11:10Z")
From the NYTimes: > [@](#): > > Nehme Y. Tohme, a member of Parliament from the anti-Syrian reform bloc and the country’s minister for the displaced, said he had been told by Hezbollah officials that when the shooting stopped, \*\*Iran would provide Hezbollah with an “unlimited budget” for reconstruction. \*\* > [@](#): > > Hezbollah men also traveled door to door checking on residents and asking them what help they needed. > [@](#): > > Sheik Nasrallah’s speech was interpreted by some on Tuesday as a kind of watershed in Lebanese politics, establishing his group on an equal footing with the official government. > > “It was a coup d’état,” said Jad al-Akjaoui, a political analyst aligned with the democratic reform bloc. > [@](#): > > Defense Minister Elias Murr said Tuesday that the government would not seek to disarm Hezbollah. [link](http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/16/world/middleeast/16hezbollah.html?hp&ex=1155700800&en=ce2e2bfc4bd82c69&ei=5094&partner=homepage) The more I think of this, the more I am reminded of Tuchman’s The March Of Folly. I don’t know why Israel, and the United States for that matter, is continuing to take actions so obviously against their best interest. ---
**Author:** ![Rufus\_Xavier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/eada6e/32.png) [@Rufus\_Xavier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rufus_Xavier)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901/9 "2006-08-16T03:30:30Z")
One question: where are the two kidnapped Israeli soldiers? I thought the original intent of the incursion into Lebanon was to bring them back. It’s been five weeks, and no mention of them has been made. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901/10 "2006-08-16T03:34:47Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > Nobody won. Everyone lost. Same as usual. I disagree…I think that there is a fairly clear winner and loser in this mess. Unfortunately. My own take on this is that Hezbollah won the PR war. In addition, as their own goals were much more simplistic they also won by that measure…since they are still a coherent military force and still pretty much in power in Lebanon. Israel on the other hand most definitely lost…unfortunately. I’m a strong supporter of Israel, but their defuse military goals and haphazard approach to achieving them, coupled with their seemingly endless desire to be everyones friend and have people love them (while at the same time coupled with a hard headed tactical approach to winning) leaves them pretty much hanging in the breeze. And pretty much having the opposite effect as they intended. It reminds me of their half way measures wrt the various occupied territories…refusing to annex the territory while maintaining a hard nosed occupation. The worst of both worlds. I see this ‘peace’ in much the same light. I really feel bad for Israel. This fiasco is going to cost them across the board and make their security all the more tenuous. In the long run, by taking half measures with defuse military goals (which seemed to shift with the various strange political currents that run through Israel), and then compounding this by caving in to international pressure to halt before ANY of their goals were achieved (though as I said earlier, with their vague military strategy on this maybe that was impossible in any case) they have well and truely fucked themselves. I think their security wrt Lebanon and Hezbollah, as well as Hama’s and Gaza is much worse than it was at the beginning…and I shudder to think of all the new suicide bombings, rocket attacks and cross boarder raids they will NOW have to endure for the next decade or so. ☹ -XT ---
**Author:** ![cerberus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/71e660/32.png) [@cerberus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cerberus)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901/11 "2006-08-16T03:36:25Z")
I can’t say that either Israel or Hizbollah won, though I can say that Lebanon lost and Iran won. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 4:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901/12 "2006-08-16T04:52:00Z")
I don’t believe in handicapping wars. Saying Hezbollah won because it survived ignores the obvious fact that Israel inflicted huge losses on it. Other than a temporary blow to its international image (and let’s face facts - Israel was never going to be chosen Most Popular Nation by its neighbours anyway) Israel is in the same state it was a few months ago. Hezbollah, on the other hand, is now substantially weaker in terms of personnel and material. Israel’s reputation will start recovering as soon as Islamic terrorists make a few attacks and people remember who the real bad guys are. Hezbollah, on the other hand, will spend years recovering. And I’m betting the next guy who suggests they kidnap some Israeli soldiers gets slapped silly. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 5:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901/13 "2006-08-16T05:11:19Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > I disagree…I think that there is a fairly clear winner and loser in this mess. Unfortunately. Well, okay, I don’t disagree that Hezbollah comes out of this looking pretty good. They went toe to toe with the IDF and did a lot better than many entire Arab nations have done. Their stature in local Leb politics is considerably enhanced. When I say everybody lost, I’m looking at pictures of bombed-out Lebanese towns. Those people sure as hell didn’t win anything, and in some fairly significant sense, those people ARE Hezbollah. Course Hezbollah’s offering to pay for a lot of reconstruction (gotta be Iranian money there). ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 5:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901/14 "2006-08-16T05:14:20Z")
> [@Little Nemo](#): > > Hezbollah, on the other hand, is now substantially weaker in terms of personnel and material. That is thinking in conventional terms, and will lose you an unconventional war every single time. You can’t defeat Hezbollah that way. You have to erode their base of support. And unfortunately, this war has enhanced their base of support, not eroded it. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 5:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901/15 "2006-08-16T05:20:24Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > Well, okay, I don’t disagree that Hezbollah comes out of this looking pretty good. They went toe to toe with the IDF and did a lot better than many entire Arab nations have done. Their stature in local Leb politics is considerably enhanced. When I say everybody lost, I’m looking at pictures of bombed-out Lebanese towns. Those people sure as hell didn’t win anything, and in some fairly significant sense, those people ARE Hezbollah. Course Hezbollah’s offering to pay for a lot of reconstruction (gotta be Iranian money there). Definitely being bankrolled by Iran (who is the big winner in this whole thing). I think that overall the people of Lebanon are neither winners nor losers…or maybe they are a bit of both. Time will tell there…though I think that Hezbollah is going to get a HUGE shot in the arm over this, and will probably be feeling their oats in a year or so. THAT could spell real trouble down the line. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 5:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901/16 "2006-08-16T05:21:45Z")
> [@Little Nemo](#): > > Israel’s reputation will start recovering as soon as Islamic terrorists make a few attacks and people remember who the real bad guys are. Both sides ? All the terrorist attacks in the world won’t make Israel any nicer. > [@Little Nemo](#): > > And I’m betting the next guy who suggests they kidnap some Israeli soldiers gets slapped silly. Unless they want to suck Israel into shooting itself in the foot again. ---
**Author:** ![treis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bc79bd/32.png) [@treis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/treis)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 5:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901/17 "2006-08-16T05:22:14Z")
> [@Little Nemo](#): > > Hezbollah, on the other hand, is now substantially weaker in terms of personnel and material. According to whom? Hezbollah was firing just as many rockets at the end of the war as they were at the beginning. Sure they lost fighters, but they didn’t lose any of the senior leadership. Their weapons are already being replenished by Syria, and I doubt they will have trouble filling their ranks with recruits. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 5:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901/18 "2006-08-16T05:23:01Z")
> [@Gorsnak](#): > > That is thinking in conventional terms, and will lose you an unconventional war every single time. You can’t defeat Hezbollah that way. You have to erode their base of support. And unfortunately, this war has enhanced their base of support, not eroded it. I disagree with part of this. I think you CAN win an unconventional war with conventional tactics and terms. But you have to have focused goals and probably a soul and will of iron. Israel (much like the US) has neither…and so, in real world terms you are correct…they CAN’T win in these situations. One simply has to look at Iraq and now Lebanon as examples. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901/19 "2006-08-16T05:32:52Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > Definitely being bankrolled by Iran (who is the big winner in this whole thing). I think that overall the people of Lebanon are neither winners nor losers…or maybe they are a bit of both. Time will tell there…though I think that Hezbollah is going to get a HUGE shot in the arm over this, and will probably be feeling their oats in a year or so. THAT could spell real trouble down the line. > > -XT Overall I think the people of Lebanon are the biggest losers. Their country’s infrastructure is in ruins, and it’s going to take years or even decades to recover from the financial hit. And of course a bunch of them are dead, injured, and homeless. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 16, 2006, 5:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901/20 "2006-08-16T05:53:42Z")
Israel basically showed that anytime it wants to it can sent its troops into Lebanon and smash any signs of Hezbollah activity and there’s nothing Hezbollah, Lebanon, Syria, or Iran can do to stop this. Hezbollah may be talking tough right now (and what else would you expect?) but I’m sure the reality of the situation wasn’t unnoted. I’ll grant you Iran came out okay; it used Hezbollah as a pawn and lost very little besides the money it invested. So I’m sure Iran and other foreign powers will quickly reinvest and try to restart Hezbollah or other equivalent front groups. But I believe recruitment will be a little more difficult this time around. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israel-vs-hezbollah-who-won/368901.md?page=2)