# Israeli Election 2026 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 27, 2026, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194 "2026-10-27T15:08:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194/101 "2026-10-28T01:25:20Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > Defections by members of Arab and right wing parties is what brought down the Bennett/Lapid government in 2022 and brought Netanyahu back to power. Yes, but things have changed since then, in ways which make any sort of cooperation between Netanyahu and Arab groups much less likely. ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194/102 "2026-10-28T01:32:47Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > Bibi is responsible for October 7th, and people haven’t forgotten his Judicial Reform stunts either. I am very hopeful that he will be sent packing. I’ve been reading sentiments such as this here since October 7th, that Bibi’s has no political future, that he’ll be unceremoniously sent packing as soon as the war is over. He seems to have gotten around that last part by assuring that the war never ends and in fact expands to even more countries. But I can’t help but wonder if there’s also a bit of an echo chamber effect going on here similar to how everyone was certain that Trump didn’t stand a snowball’s chance in hell to win in 2024 after January 6th. And yet he won, not just the electoral but the popular vote as well. And here we are, Bibi is still in power and very well may remain in power, and Likud still seeming likely to have won the most seats, though not a majority. So much for being held responsible for October 7th anytime this decade it seems. ---
**Author:** ![P-man](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/p-man/32/3606_2.png) [@P-man](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/P-man)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194/103 "2026-10-28T01:35:44Z")
One of our friends who has dual citizenship flew to Israel to vote against Netanyahu. She and her husband aren’t exactly rolling in dough, but she decided it was worth spending the money. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 1:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194/104 "2026-10-28T01:40:26Z")
> [@Thing.Fish](#): > > and both of them have denounced Hamas. …have they? This is from a Google AI search, but it’s quite difficult to prove a negative; that said, it says: > [@](#): > > Hadash (the Democratic Front for Peace and Equality), a joint Arab-Jewish political coalition in Israel, has not issued a formal collective party statement using the specific label of “condemning Hamas,” instead positioning its stance around opposition to all harm against civilians while placing the violence within the context of the Israeli occupation. > Individual members of the Knesset representing Hadash have expressed varied and debated positions: > • Ayman Odeh (Hadash leader): Stated shortly after the October 7, 2023 attacks that “It is absolutely forbidden to accept any attacks on the innocent, and I categorically condemn the calls by Hamas for Arab-Palestinians citizens to join the fighting against Israel,” while also calling for an immediate prisoner exchange. He has faced ongoing criticism and motion attempts in the Knesset for refusing standard definitions or political demands regarding Hamas and Hezbollah. > • Ofer Cassif (Hadash-Ta’al Knesset member): Stated, “We condemn and oppose any assault on innocent civilians. But in contrast to the Israeli government that means that we oppose any assault on Palestinian civilians as well. We must analyse those terrible incidents [the attacks] in the right context – and that is the ongoing occupation”. Cassif has also individually expressed explicit opposition to the civilian slaughter and hostage-taking of October 7 while criticizing Israeli military actions in Gaza. > • Past members (e.g., Afu Agbaria): In prior years, individual Hadash lawmakers drew intense controversy and condemnation from other Knesset members by referring to Hamas as a “liberation organization” rather than a terror group. > [@](#): > > Ta’al (an Israeli-Arab political party led by Ahmad Tibi) has condemned the harm and killing of civilians on October 7, 2023, but has avoided issuing a direct, unilateral condemnation of Hamas as an organization. > The party’s positioning on the matter includes the following key actions and public statements: > • Condemning Harm to Civilians: Party leader Ahmad Tibi stated that he and other Arab citizens of Israel were explicitly against the civilian deaths during the October 7 onslaught. He consistently maintains a principled stance against harming innocent people, often noting his background as a doctor who values human life. > • Focus on the Occupation: Instead of isolating Hamas for condemnation, Ta’al frames the violence within the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Representatives argue that both Israelis and Palestinians pay the price for the ongoing occupation, which they demand must end to ensure security for both sides. It appears to be a considerable exaggeration to say that the Joint List has condemned Hamas. Even Abbas has done infinitely more than that, condemning October 7th both individually and officially as Ra’am and getting rid of Iman Khatib-Yassin. > [@Thing.Fish](#): > > So that leaves 13 or so Joint List MKs who seem like potentially acceptable coalition partners for the liberal Zionist parties. If any of their members would individually like to condemn Hamas (or are among the couple who already have) and break with the Joint List in order to coalition with the Zionist parties, I would welcome them with open arms. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194/105 "2026-10-28T01:56:53Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > Channel 14’s exit polls somehow show Bibi’s coalition at 60, 10 reps higher than everyone else’s projection. This is bad news, and should not be dismissed. For those who don"t know, Channel 14 is as bad as Foxnews (and they are proud of it). Their flagship primetime program is a political panel talk show called “The Patriots”, with a demogog moderator similar to Tucker Carlson.. BUT…their incessant proclaimations that King Bibi will win are _not_ crazy. Because there is a hugely important statistic which will change all the numbers that have been announced so far. That statistic is the **count of the absentee ballots.** So far, all the projections are based on exit polls. But the absentee ballots (called in Hebrew “double envelopes”) have not yet begun to be counted. Many of the double envelopes are from soldiers, who tend to be right wing. In previous elections, the absentee ballots have added about one seat to Bibi’s bloc. Right now, the two blocs are almost even, with Bibi only one or two seats behind. This WILL change when the absentee ballots are counted. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 1:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194/106 "2026-10-28T01:56:58Z")
Thank you for the clarification. I should have said that prominent leaders of both parties have condemned Hamas, and that AFAICT no current leader of either party has declined to do so. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194/107 "2026-10-28T02:02:35Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > So far, all the projections are based on exit polls. But the absentee ballots (called in Hebrew "double envelopes) have not yet begun to be counted. Many of the double envelopes are from soldiers, who tend to be right wing. In previous elections, the absentee ballots have added about one seat to Bibi’s bloc. I’d hope that is good news for Liberman rather than Netanyahu, since Liberman is also right wing but doesn’t have an extremely embarrassing military failure under his belt. > [@chappachula](#): > > Right now, the two blocs are almost even, with Bibi only one or two seats behind. This WILL change when the absentee ballots are counted. Even if Bibi was two or three seats ahead himself, that’s a very long way from 61. Who is he gonna draw over? Joint List politicians? Right wingers whose central campaign promise was the draft? There is no good way for him to grow his coalition. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194/108 "2026-10-28T02:16:04Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > very long way from 61. Who is he gonna draw over? See my comments in post #88. After Eisenkot fails, Bibi gets his chance, in December.The Israeli public, (and the left-wing parties), is already exhausted and does not want a new election, so the left’s failure gives Bibi a boost, as the final option.. Some members of the left will give their vote to Bibi to make the 61 total. Bibi will lure them with promises them that he has changed, and will do what is best for the country. By then the country will have suffered horrible damage from Iranian missiles, and Bibi will offer the (false) appearance of stability. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194/109 "2026-10-28T02:21:42Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > After Eisenkot fails, Bibi gets his chance, in December.The Israeli public, (and the left-wing parties), is already exhausted and does not want a new election, so the left’s failure gives Bibi a boost. Some members of the left will give their vote to Bibi to make the 61 total. Bibi will lure them with promises them that he has changed, and will do what is best for the country. > By then the country will have suffered horrible damage from Iranian missiles, and Bibi will offer the (false) appearance of stability. I’m not nearly as pessimistic as you about Eisenkot, but the one thing that does give me pause is that like the Jeb! campaign, Yashar! has that stupid exclamation mark. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194/110 "2026-10-28T02:26:36Z")
😀 Yeah, that exclamation point bugs me, too. Thanks for some much needed humor. (We now return to our regularly scheduled thread.) ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194/111 "2026-10-28T02:38:09Z")
Projections as of this moment show a tie at 51-51, with 18 Arabs. Assuming none of the Arabs will ever vote for Netanyahu, that will mean the opposition needs to get a single vote from either the Arabs or Charedim, which for some of the opposition parties will mean breaking campaign promises. ---
**Author:** ![Thing.Fish](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thing.fish/32/9168_2.png) [@Thing.Fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thing.Fish)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194/112 "2026-10-28T03:18:28Z")
Summing up the dilemma confronting the opposition, Ta’al chairman Ahmad Tibi just tweeted “Either Bibi or Tibi…” ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 8:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194/113 "2026-10-28T08:57:10Z")
Well, it’s one of those mornings where I wish I never woke up. 66% of the votes have been counted, and currently Bibi is leading Eisenkot 54 to 48, with 18 seats to the Arabs. The way things stand now, there are two options: either one or more of the “change” block parties breaks its pledges and goes with Netanyahu, leaving him in power with a slightly more moderate government; or we have another round of elections in a few months, and I don’t see why there would be a different result. Who the fuck screws up an exit poll so badly? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 9:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194/114 "2026-10-28T09:40:39Z")
What does all this mean for Smotrich and Ben Gvir? ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 11:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194/115 "2026-10-28T11:57:18Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Who the fuck screws up an exit poll so badly? Are people embarrassed to tell anyone except a Channel 14 pollster that they voted for Bibi? ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 12:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194/116 "2026-10-28T12:10:11Z")
Either that or they like messing with the “liberal media”. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 12:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194/117 "2026-10-28T12:24:52Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > we have another round of elections in a few months, and I don’t see why there would be a different result. Not to be a pessimist, but the big change could be if some of the small parties that didn’t make the cut decide not to run a second time, and if that happens I think it favors Netanyahu. But we might not get there. Eisenkot could resort to a minority government with the Arab parties helping but not sitting in coalition, for example. Although I think he wouldn’t get to try until Bibi fails to build a government? Also, I read an opinion piece that pointed out that another election could be a problem for Bibi, because until that election there would be a majority in Parliament that’s strongly opposed to him, and they could pass a law banning him from running. I’m not sure how true that is, but it’s an interesting idea. The Likud is such an empty shell that I’m not sure what an election where it is led by anyone else would look like. ---
**Author:** ![Frodo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/frodo/32/302_2.png) [@Frodo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frodo)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194/118 "2026-10-28T12:32:14Z")
> [@Babale](#): > > they could pass a law banning him from running Would such a thing be constitutional? ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 12:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194/119 "2026-10-28T12:35:20Z")
> [@Frodo](#): > > Would such a thing be constitutional? He’s been indicted for several corruption charges. They can pass a law prohibiting anyone under indictment from serving as PM. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [October 28, 2026, 12:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194/120 "2026-10-28T12:36:13Z")
> [@Frodo](#): > > Would such a thing be constitutional It wouldn’t be the “No Bibis Allowed Law”, it would be a previously considered law that bans someone who is indicted and on trial for crimes committed while in office from running again until the trial is over. But _de facto_ it WOULD be the “No Bibis Allowed” Law and so the Supreme Court would have to consider that. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-election-2026/1034194.md?page=7)