# Israeli Knesset election 03/17/15 **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 17, 2015, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965 "2015-02-17T22:59:38Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2015, 6:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965/41 "2015-03-17T18:25:13Z")
So, when do the polls close in Israel? ETA: Nevermind. I see that the polls close at 10:00 PM, approximately 1.5 hours from now. ---
**Author:** ![RickG](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rickg/32/5174_2.png) [@RickG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickG)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2015, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965/42 "2015-03-17T18:54:42Z")
> [@Onomatopoeia](#): > > So, when do the polls close in Israel? > > ETA: Nevermind. I see that the polls close at 10:00 PM, approximately 1.5 hours from now. Related questions: Will the Israeli media release exit polling results as soon as the polls close? If so, how good are they, typically? How long will the official count take to complete? ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2015, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965/43 "2015-03-17T19:18:06Z")
> [@RickG](#): > > Related questions: Will the Israeli media release exit polling results as soon as the polls close? If so, how good are they, typically? How long will the official count take to complete? Yes, pretty good, and tomorrow morning. ---
**Author:** ![RickG](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rickg/32/5174_2.png) [@RickG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickG)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2015, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965/44 "2015-03-17T19:31:32Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > Yes, pretty good, and tomorrow morning. And then the question is whether there will be a new government in place before I’m there for a visit in May (not that it will make any difference to the average tourist). 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2015, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965/45 "2015-03-17T19:41:30Z")
> [@](#): > > Related questions: 1.Will the Israeli media release exit polling results as soon as the polls close? 2.If so, how good are they, typically?3. How long will the official count take to complete? > [@](#): > > Yes, pretty good, and tomorrow morning. well, let’s be a little more specific: 1.yes, the media will release exit polls results immediately (about a half hour from now) 2. yes those results are pretty good and accurate 3. yes, the official count will be complete by tomorrow morning but… NO, tomorow morning, we will NOT know who won the election. We will not know who won for another month or more. If the left-wing party (led by Herzog) is the “winner” (by most votes), that does not mean that they will lead the government. It will take at least a month for them to negotiate with 5 or 6 other parties to build a coalition. And if they fail to create a coalition within 60 days, they will officially be declared the loser of the election, and Netanyahu will be officially offered the job. > [@](#): > > the question is whether there will be a new government in place before I’m there for a visit in May (not that it will make any difference to the average tourist Don’t count on the new government being in place. And it certainly won’t matter to the average tourist…or, for that matter, to the average Israeli citizen. Life goes on, you know. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2015, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965/46 "2015-03-17T19:49:18Z")
> [@RickG](#): > > And then the question is whether there will be a new government in place before I’m there for a visit in May (not that it will make any difference to the average tourist). 🙂 Unless there’s a civil war. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2015, 8:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965/47 "2015-03-17T20:04:48Z")
Is there any possibility that Likud will prevail by a seat or two, but fail to build a coalition because of the nature of the campaign these last two days? Or is pretty much everyone in a potential coalition already to the right of Likud? ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2015, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965/48 "2015-03-17T20:05:36Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Unless there’s a civil war. You didn’t include a smiley, so I don’t know if you are joking. So just to make things clear. folks…I assure you that, yes, **Brainglutton** is joking. Israel is a western democracy, ya know. > [@](#): > > Is there any possibility that Likud will prevail by a seat or two, but fail to build a coalition its not likely. Likud has plenty of options, but the _internal_ horse trading with all the parties involved will be endless and very tiresome to follow. It will take a month or more, but it will be accomplished. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2015, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965/49 "2015-03-17T20:07:31Z")
Let’s go already. I am sitting on the edge of my seat. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2015, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965/50 "2015-03-17T20:08:04Z")
I just returned from a 10-day trip to Israel. Loved it. Anyway - Channel 1 exit poll at close of polls: Likud 27 Labor+Livni 27 Arab List 12 Yesh Atid 12 Kulanu 10 Bait Yehudi 9 Shas 7 UTJ 6 Meretz 5 Yisrael Beitenu 5 Right Block + Koolanu = 66 As I said, Herzog has no path to coalition. Most he can hope for is joint coalition, and no prime-ministerhip. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2015, 8:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965/51 "2015-03-17T20:09:49Z")
Isn’t there some big controversy over forged Kulanu support for Likud? See: [News from Israel | The Jerusalem Post](http://www.jpost.com/landedpages/printarticle.aspx?id=394156) ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2015, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965/52 "2015-03-17T20:11:12Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Isn’t there some big controversy over forged Kulanu support for Likud? > > See: [Israel News: Updates on Israeli Politics, Security & Diplomacy | The Jerusalem Post](http://www.jpost.com/landedpages/printarticle.aspx?id=394156) Kahlon didn’t promise to support Likud. He promised to support anyone that will give him the post of finance minister. I think Bibi will be able to do that fairly easily. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2015, 8:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965/53 "2015-03-17T20:11:47Z")
Why wouldn’t Labour be able to make the same promise? (Asked genuinely out of ignorance!) ---
**Author:** ![yellowjacketcoder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/4bbf92/32.png) [@yellowjacketcoder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yellowjacketcoder)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2015, 8:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965/54 "2015-03-17T20:12:26Z")
**Terr** and **Alessan** : I know it’s not as easy as that, but what’s your take on the likely coalitions given the election results? who gets left out and who gets ‘in’ the majority? ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2015, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965/55 "2015-03-17T20:16:14Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > You didn’t include a smiley, so I don’t know if you are joking. > So just to make things clear. folks…I assure you that, yes, **Brainglutton** is joking. > Israel is a western democracy, ya know. See post #39. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2015, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965/56 "2015-03-17T20:16:49Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > Why wouldn’t Labour be able to make the same promise? (Asked genuinely out of ignorance!) Because Labor needs, in addition to Kahalon, the support of 12 Arab List votes to form a government. Note: to FORM the government, the 12 Arab List members have to be in it. (For the government to exist later, as a minority government, they don’t have to be in it, they can support it from the outside. But you cannot _form_ a minority government). And that will not happen because: 1. The Arab list will not join a “Zionist” government, and 2. If that somehow happens (it won’t) that will be suicide for the Labor in the next elections. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2015, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965/57 "2015-03-17T20:17:32Z")
> [@Terr](#): > > I just returned from a 10-day trip to Israel. Loved it. > > Anyway - Channel 1 exit poll at close of polls: > > Likud 27 > Labor+Livni 27 I realize that these are just preliminary results but as an American, I’m just curious - what happens in the Isreali system if there’s a real tie at the top? Do both parties get to try and make a coalition? Is it pistols at dawn? (please say yes). ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2015, 8:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965/58 "2015-03-17T20:18:53Z")
So the idea is that no one wants the Arab List in their coalition (and the feeling might be mutual), and the remaining MKs have no clear path for labor if the exit polling is correct? But has the Arab List ever had so many seats? Seems possible both sides would change their orientation if/when they get enough power to matter. ---
**Author:** ![Onomatopoeia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/onomatopoeia/32/4145_2.png) [@Onomatopoeia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Onomatopoeia)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2015, 8:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965/59 "2015-03-17T20:19:19Z")
Oh well, not the outcome I’d hoped for. > [@Reuters](#): > > JERUSALEM, March 17 (Reuters) - Exit polls by Israel’s leading television channels showed that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party drew even with Isaac Herzog’s Zionist Union in the election on Tuesday, making the formation of the next government a serious challenge for both candidates. > > Channel 10 and Channel 1 said Likud and the Zionist Union had secured 27 seats each in the 120-member Knesset, while Channel 2 said that Netanyahu had eked out a narrow victory, winning 28 seats to 27 for Herzog. ---
**Author:** ![Terr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Terr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Terr)\ **Post date:** [March 17, 2015, 8:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965/60 "2015-03-17T20:21:09Z")
> [@Merneith](#): > > I realize that these are just preliminary results but as an American, I’m just curious - what happens in the Isreali system if there’s a real tie at the top? Do both parties get to try and make a coalition? Is it pistols at dawn? (please say yes). Nah it is a lot simpler. The “biggest party” thing is just bragging rights. There is no requirement that the President has to give the task of forming the government to the biggest party. After the results are announced, the parties come to the President and each gives him the name of the person they want to form the government. The one that gets the support of 61 votes gets that task - note: this is just 61 votes recommending who will try to form the coalition first. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-knesset-election-03-17-15/712965.md?page=4)