# Israeli military is preparing itself to launch a massive aerial assault on Iran **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 18, 2009, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495 "2009-04-18T02:23:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/21 "2009-04-19T11:17:30Z")
I find it highly amusing that Israël has such concerns about its neighbours having nukes, when they’ve had them for 60 years. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 11:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/22 "2009-04-19T11:28:29Z")
First of all - 40 years at the most. Second of all, why is that amusing? Why should Israel worry about its own nukes? ---
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/23 "2009-04-19T12:53:07Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > First of all - 40 years at the most. > > Second of all, why is that amusing? Why should Israel worry about its own nukes? Israel shouldn’t, but its neighbours have likely been living with Cold War-style atomic fear for most of their lives. That’s the whole problem with nukes, isn’t it ? It’s never good when only one side has them, because everyone else has to tiptoe. “We promise not to use them unless you make us” doesn’t cut it, it never does. Hence, the want, nay, need for M.A.D. So yes, it’s amusing (in a grim, desperate sort of way - but that’s my kind of humor I suppose) that madness should be the way to stability. And more to the point, that Israel wants to be the only state in the region with a Damocles sword hanging over everyone’s head, while at the same time claiming \*they \*are the ones threatened by Iran’s nuclear program. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/24 "2009-04-19T13:57:25Z")
> [@Kobal2](#): > > \*they \*are the ones threatened by Iran’s nuclear program. I guess it depends on your opinion as to which nation is the likelier to use them _first_, assuming they both had them. Why hasn’t Israel used them over all the years they’ve been attacked by their Arab neighbors (OK, Iran is Persian, whatever)? Seems they could have unleashed that part of their arsenal at any time, and despite the uproar it would have caused, I bet that the country Israel unloaded nuclear ordinance on would think twice before messing with them again. OTOH, say Iran, positioned as it currently is, has nuclear weapons and Israel does not…does that increase the chances of them being used? Would Israel even exist? ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/25 "2009-04-19T14:11:29Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > OTOH, say Iran, positioned as it currently is, has nuclear weapons and Israel does not…does that increase the chances of them being used? Would Israel even exist? Why wouldn’t it ? We’d probably destroy Iran if it used nukes on Israel, or anyone else, and the Iranian leadership knows it. We’d love the excuse for a genocide of the Iranians. ---
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/26 "2009-04-19T14:25:23Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > I guess it depends on your opinion as to which nation is the likelier to use them _first_, assuming they both had them. > > Why hasn’t Israel used them over all the years they’ve been attacked by their Arab neighbors (OK, Iran is Persian, whatever)? Seems they could have unleashed that part of their arsenal at any time, and despite the uproar it would have caused, I bet that the country Israel unloaded nuclear ordinance on would think twice before messing with them again. > > OTOH, say Iran, positioned as it currently is, has nuclear weapons and Israel does not…does that increase the chances of them being used? Would Israel even exist? That’s not the point - Israël does have them. And if that fails, the US has them. There’s no ifs or buts or why. Meaning Iran cannot use theirs against them, should they get them in the end (which they probably will, anyway). That’s the point of M.A.D. : no one can use them first, because that also means using them last. What was that Wargames quote, “it’s a silly game, the only way to win is not to play” ? And yes, you can certainly say “Israël hasn’t used them against their neighbours for as long as they’ve had them, so their neighbours have nothing to fear”. The USSR never did either, was it enough of a reason for the West not to fear the Russian arsenal ? And on the other side of that argument, there’s the opposite one : “The US is the only nation to have ever launched nukes in anger, can we trust them with nuclear power ?”. It’s a silly argument. That’s what nuclear fear (and, in a wider perspective, any and all military expenditure) _is_. Silly, non sensical. It’s facing this huge prisonner’s dilemma, knowing that there’s no way it can lead to good, in fact in the best of outcomes it’s a colossal waste ; but also knowing it’s the only rational way to go. And isn’t \*that \*hilarious ? ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/27 "2009-04-19T15:04:25Z")
You’re assuming that all the actors are rational. You’re also forgettinmg that having nukes can’t prevent a nuclear attack, ony respond to one, by which point it’s too late. And even a single nuke hitting Israel\* will finish it - we’re just that small. I’m not willing to take the risk, especially as I personally would not survive that single nuke (I live in central Tel Aviv, three blocks from the Israeli version of the Pentagon). Look at it this way: Chance a non-nuclear Iran launches a nuke at Israel = zero. Chance a nuclear Iran launches a nuke at Israel = greater than zero. Unless you can assure me with 100% certitude that Iran will never nuke me, that’s all I really need to know. - Incidentally, what’s with the ë? That’s not how you spell it. ---
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/28 "2009-04-19T15:20:29Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > You’re assuming that all the actors are rational. > > You’re also forgettinmg that having nukes can’t prevent a nuclear attack, ony respond to one, by which point it’s too late. And even a single nuke hitting Israel\* will finish it - we’re just that small. I’m not willing to take the risk, especially as I personally would not survive that single nuke (I live in central Tel Aviv, three blocks from the Israeli version of the Pentagon). > > Look at it this way: > > Chance a non-nuclear Iran launches a nuke at Israel = zero. > > Chance a nuclear Iran launches a nuke at Israel = greater than zero. > > Unless you can assure me with 100% certitude that Iran will never nuke me, that’s all I really need to know. Hey, I never said it was \*irrational \*of Israel (sorry, French spelling habit, you’ve corrected me on this once before). Just that the whole situation was amusing to outsider me, or from a wider perspective if you will. It’s the sick, dysfunctional beauty of the prisonner’s dilemma : both actors stand to gain from trusting the other… but neither can afford to, so both lose. I like a mug’s game, what can I say :p. ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/29 "2009-04-19T15:24:55Z")
Well, I’m glad you’re amused. Just remember, though - your country also has a long history of taking extreme measures to protect its interests. It’s one of the things I like about you. ---
**Author:** ![Desert\_Nomad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desert_nomad/32/177_2.png) [@Desert\_Nomad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Desert_Nomad)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/30 "2009-04-19T15:35:11Z")
> [@The\_Tao\_s\_Revenge](#): > > Go Israel! Go Iran! ---
**Author:** ![Desert\_Nomad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desert_nomad/32/177_2.png) [@Desert\_Nomad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Desert_Nomad)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/31 "2009-04-19T15:37:12Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > I guess it depends on your opinion as to which nation is the likelier to use them _first_, assuming they both had them. > > Why hasn’t Israel used them over all the years they’ve been attacked by their Arab neighbors (OK, Iran is Persian, whatever)? Seems they could have unleashed that part of their arsenal at any time, and despite the uproar it would have caused, I bet that the country Israel unloaded nuclear ordinance on would think twice before messing with them again. > OTOH, say Iran, positioned as it currently is, has nuclear weapons and Israel does not…does that increase the chances of them being used? Would Israel even exist? Iran has never invaded another country. Iran is just being prudent - they want nuclear technology do protect themselves from the US and Israel. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 3:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/32 "2009-04-19T15:48:53Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > Right now they are just enriching uranium If the IAEA cannot confirm non-diversion of nuclear materials and/or a parallel weapons program, how can you certify that Iran is “just” doing something? > [@Desert\_Nomad](#): > > Iran has never invaded another country. When Iran founded, trained, armed, funded and equipped a military force dedicated to the Ayatollah and had them try to take over Lebanon, that totally didn’t count. > [@Desert\_Nomad](#): > > they want nuclear technology do protect themselves from the US and Israel. How much protection does Egypt need these days? Jordan? ---
**Author:** ![Alessan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alessan/32/465_2.png) [@Alessan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alessan)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/33 "2009-04-19T15:54:28Z")
> [@Desert\_Nomad](#): > > Iran has never invaded another country. Iran is just being prudent - they want nuclear technology do protect themselves from the US and Israel. What on earth would Israel want with Iran? Why would we bother with threatening them? ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/34 "2009-04-19T16:45:51Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > If the IAEA cannot confirm non-diversion of nuclear materials and/or a parallel weapons program, how can you certify that Iran is “just” doing something? Actually I believe that the IAEA has in fact confirmed that nuclear materials haven’t been diverted for military use.Anyway my main point is that no one has produced serious evidence that Iran does in fact have a nuclear weapons program which is the least you would need to justify a military attack. The 2007 NIE suggests that US intelligence doesn’t believe Iran has a functioning nuclear weapons program as of now. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/35 "2009-04-19T17:57:39Z")
If bombing would end Iran’s nuclear program forever, or even for a decade, it might be worth considering. But how long is one bombing campaign going to delay an Iranian nuclear bomb? By a year? Two years? If fact, it seems likely to _speed up_ Iran’s nuclear program, because after the bombing Iran will stop pretending that it doesn’t want a nuclear bomb, and start developing one openly. So while I understand why Israel might want to stop Iranian nuclear ambitions, the fact is that they can’t stop Iran from getting a bomb. Neither can the US, or France, or Russia. Israel is going to have to live the the idea of Iranian nuclear weapons, because they’re going to have to. ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/36 "2009-04-19T18:01:22Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > Actually I believe that the IAEA has in fact confirmed that nuclear materials haven’t been diverted for military use. It has only confirmed that the materials it currently knows about haven’t been diverted, not that other, undeclared, materials weren’t diverted. [ > [@](#): > > 1. The Agency has been able to continue to verify the non-diversion of declared nuclear material in ran. However, Iran has not implemented the modified text of its Subsidiary Arrangements General Part, Code 3.1, on the early provision of design information and has continued to refuse to permit the Agency to carry out design information verification at IR-40. > > 2. Contrary to the request of the Board of Governors and the Security Council, Iran has not implemented the Additional Protocol, which is a prerequisite for the Agency to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities. Nor has it agreed to the Agency’s request that Iran provide, as a transparency measure, access to additional locations related, inter alia, to the manufacturing of centrifuges, R&D on uranium enrichment, and uranium mining and > milling, as also required by the Security Council. > > 3. Regrettably, as a result of the continued lack of cooperation by Iran in connection with the remaining issues which give rise to concerns about possible military dimensions of Iran’s nuclear programme, the Agency has not made any substantive progress on these issues. As indicated in previous reports of the Director General, for the Agency to make such progress, Iran needs to provide > substantive information, and access to relevant documentation, locations and individuals, in connection with all of the outstanding issues. With respect to the alleged studies in particular, an important first step is for Iran to clarify the extent to which information contained in the documentation which Iran was shown, and given the opportunity to study, is factually correct and where, in its view, such information may have been modified or relates to non-nuclear purposes. > > 4. Unless Iran implements the above transparency measures and the Additional Protocol, as required by the Security Council, the Agency will not be in a position to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran. The Director General continues to urge Iran to implement all measures required to build confidence in the exclusively peaceful nature of its nuclear programme at the earliest possible date. The Director General, at the same time, urges Member States which have provided such documentation to the Agency to agree to the Agency’s providing copies thereof to Iran. ]([http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2009/gov2009-8.pdf](http://www.iaea.org/Publications/Documents/Board/2009/gov2009-8.pdf)) > [@Lantern](#): > > Anyway my main point is that no one has produced serious evidence that Iran does in fact have a nuclear weapons program which is the least you would need to justify a military attack. Please note that my response was to a factual assertion, not a procedural/legal, or even an epistemological one. Having a plausible view that the Iranian nuclear weapons program is still shut down is not the same as knowing that they’re just enriching uranium. Especially since the NIE report said that there _was_ an Iranian nuclear weapons program that was active fairly recently. They the IAEA still cannot confirm the status of (the remnants of?) that program simply means that _we do not know_ whether or not Iran has a covert nuclear weapons program currently or not. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/37 "2009-04-19T18:28:44Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > They the IAEA still cannot confirm the status of (the remnants of?) that program simply means that _we do not know_ whether or not Iran has a covert nuclear weapons program currently or not. An unknown unknown? ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/38 "2009-04-19T18:32:39Z")
Naw, rather than Rumsfeldian I prefer the IAEA’s take on it: “Unless Iran implements the above transparency measures and the Additional Protocol, as required by the Security Council, the Agency will not be in a position to provide credible assurance about the absence of undeclared nuclear material and activities in Iran.” ---
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/39 "2009-04-19T18:40:15Z")
I don’t get it: having atomic weapons would not help Iran…suppose they threatened SA with them? What would it gain them? If Iran attempted a nuclear attack, it would be totally distroyed-within hours. I think it serves Iran’ purpose to be “working” on nuclear bombs-that way it can issue threats, but retreat if the bluff fails. The world KNOWS that Israel has the bomb-and will use them (if cornered). So all of this provocation really amounts to one-upmanship. As for Israel launcing an attack upon Iran, forget it…too far away and the sites are too dispersed. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/40 "2009-04-19T18:46:26Z")
Well right after I said they were just enriching uranium I said “there isn’t much evidence they are actually making the bomb”. This is not a categorical statement that we know for sure they aren’t making a bomb; just that no one has produced any solid evidence that they are. So I think you are reading more into my statement than what it says. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495.md?page=3)