# Israeli military is preparing itself to launch a massive aerial assault on Iran **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [April 18, 2009, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495 "2009-04-18T02:23:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Henrichek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/5daacb/32.png) [@Henrichek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Henrichek)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/41 "2009-04-19T19:17:33Z")
> [@ralph124c](#): > > I don’t get it: having atomic weapons would not help Iran..suppose they threatened SA with them? What would it gain them? If Iran attempted a nuclear attack, it would be totally distroyed-within hours. I think they want them for the same reason Israel does, for their own security. I would guess that Iran would be much less likely to be invaded by USA and Israel if they have nuclear weapons in their arsenal. If they develop nukes, they would probably not be used to issue threats, since as you mentioned, using them would result in the annihalation of Iran. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Tao\_s\_Revenge](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/73ab20/32.png) [@The\_Tao\_s\_Revenge](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Tao_s_Revenge)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/42 "2009-04-19T19:22:56Z")
How well would Iran’s government be at controlling the nukes from the wrong hands? If one went off in Israel, or the US unclaimed what would happen? How would MAD know to target the right country? ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/43 "2009-04-19T19:31:55Z")
> [@mswas](#): > > I hear about these things because I pay attention, but people consistently want the MSM to predict future events based on conjecture. Then they point to the conjecture post hoc to say, “See we should’ve seen it coming.” Betcha at some point Italy’s gonna have a big earthquake. > [@The Tao's Revenge](#): > > How well would Iran’s government be at controlling the nukes from the wrong hands? Some of those wrong hands are [really scary](http://www.blackopsgolfer.com/i/hands.jpg). ---
**Author:** ![sailor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a587f6/32.png) [@sailor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sailor)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 9:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/44 "2009-04-19T21:33:52Z")
> [@Henrichek](#): > > I think they want them for the same reason Israel does, for their own security. I would guess that Iran would be much less likely to be invaded by USA and Israel if they have nuclear weapons in their arsenal. > > If they develop nukes, they would probably not be used to issue threats, since as you mentioned, using them would result in the annihalation of Iran. I agree. They know full well that they could _never_ use nukes first because the whole world would turn against them with a vengeance. And they seem more rational to me than George Bush any day of the week. They want them because they have seen their neighbors who did not have them being invaded. It is the right and the duty of the Iranian government to seek the best way to defend themselves and I think that they _will_ have nukes and the west will have to get used to the idea and no, they are not going to attack anybody with them. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/45 "2009-04-19T21:47:53Z")
The Iranians learned a lesson from [Osirak](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera) and built their nuclear facilities underground and bomb-hardened. They also have a pretty good air force and are significantly farther away from Israel. If Israel tries to destroy the reactors, Israel will fail, and it’s even money whether any of their planes will even get home again. ---
**Author:** ![Kobal2](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kobal2/32/20_2.png) [@Kobal2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kobal2)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 9:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/46 "2009-04-19T21:49:47Z")
> [@sailor](#): > > I agree. They know full well that they could _never_ use nukes first because the whole world would turn against them with a vengeance. And they seem more rational to me than George Bush any day of the week. > > They want them because they have seen their neighbors who did not have them being invaded. > > It is the right and the duty of the Iranian government to seek the best way to defend themselves and I think that they _will_ have nukes and the west will have to get used to the idea and no, they are not going to attack anybody with them. Seconded. Just look at a map. Immediately west of Iran is Iraq. Immediately east of Iran is Afghanistan. Immediately north of Iran is Georgia. Pop quizz : what do these 3 countries have in common, besides being oil rich ? Anyone ? ---
**Author:** ![Desert\_Nomad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desert_nomad/32/177_2.png) [@Desert\_Nomad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Desert_Nomad)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/47 "2009-04-19T23:11:58Z")
> [@Kobal2](#): > > Seconded. > Just look at a map. Immediately west of Iran is Iraq. Immediately east of Iran is Afghanistan. Immediately north of Iran is Georgia. Pop quizz : what do these 3 countries have in common, besides being oil rich ? Anyone ? Georgia is oil rich? I guess they must have found a bunch of oil since I lived in Tbilisi. :rolleyes: Azerbaijan has some oil and Turkmenistan has gas. Georgia has some old Soviet concrete stuff and a few rusty Ladas. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/48 "2009-04-19T23:18:25Z")
[This analysis](http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1079197.html), in the very Left of center Haaretz, may be of note. > [@](#): > > The timing of Saturday’s Times of London article, which claimed that the Israel Defense Forces is training for an attack on Iran on very short notice, is certainly no coincidence. Israel is trying to make clear that even though the United States plans to begin a diplomatic dialogue with Iran, it holds a realistic military option against Tehran’s nuclear program. Without a deal that assuages Israel’s concerns, there may be no other choice but to attack. … > > … There appears to be also an American effort to link an operation against Iran with a more favorable approach by Israel to peace with the Palestinians. An article in Yedioth Ahronoth last week suggested that the United States is hinting that its willingness to attack Iran (or permit Israel to do so) will be directly related to the Netanyahu government’s flexibility on issues such as evacuating settlements, pullbacks from the West Bank and progress on a peace accord with the Palestinian Authority. > > It’s too soon to tell if this is a trial balloon from Washington or a clear position. But even if the dialogue with Tehran fails, senior IDF officers doubt whether the United States will allow Israel to go ahead with an offensive operation. > > What may be the timetable for a strike? Updated Western intelligence assessments talk of fast Iranian progress and make discussions of a “point of no return” academic. Tehran is near the point where the question of whether it produces a nuclear weapon will be only a matter of choice, not ability. … > > … Assessments about the year Iran will be a nuclear country vary, with Israel stressing 2010 (nuclear capable), and the United States estimating - according to Secretary of Defense Robert Gates - 2013 (a nuclear weapon). Either way, it’s clear the next two to three years will be critical. It remains to be seen whether Netanyahu will discuss the Iranian threat publicly, as did Ehud Olmert, or work behind the scenes, as did Ariel Sharon. His choice will not necessarily indicate his decision on a strike against Iran. If talks fail, as most in Israel at least, expect they will, then Israel will not risk a nuclear armed Iran (who could funnel a weapon to any one or allow one to be “stolen”, etc.) , no matter what the cost. Even if it only delays them by a few years they will take it and then bomb again and again again whatever it takes. It is easy for those of us who are not the announced target in the crosshairs to say that the weapon would not be used. The target is not as sure and will not trust that assessment. ---
**Author:** ![sailor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a587f6/32.png) [@sailor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sailor)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2009, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/49 "2009-04-19T23:46:09Z")
Israel bombing Iran again and again is a recipe for peace in that region? I never would’ve thunk it! ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2009, 12:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/50 "2009-04-20T00:14:55Z")
> [@Alessan](#): > > You’re assuming that all the actors are rational. > > You’re also forgettinmg that having nukes can’t prevent a nuclear attack, ony respond to one, by which point it’s too late. And even a single nuke hitting Israel\* will finish it - we’re just that small. I’m not willing to take the risk, especially as I personally would not survive that single nuke (I live in central Tel Aviv, three blocks from the Israeli version of the Pentagon). > > Look at it this way: > > Chance a non-nuclear Iran launches a nuke at Israel = zero. > > Chance a nuclear Iran launches a nuke at Israel = greater than zero. > > Unless you can assure me with 100% certitude that Iran will never nuke me, that’s all I really need to know. > > - Incidentally, what’s with the ë? That’s not how you spell it. How well do the Iranis sleep knowing Israel is plotting a strike against them? If they do it, it will be unprovoked and wrong. Why do the citizens of Iran deserve to die because of your suspicions? ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2009, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/51 "2009-04-20T00:20:41Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > If talks fail, as most in Israel at least, expect they will, then Israel will not risk a nuclear armed Iran (who could funnel a weapon to any one or allow one to be “stolen”, etc.) , no matter what the cost. Yeah, riiiiiight. No one does that. No one lets such weapons out of their control. > [@DSeid](#): > > Even if it only delays them by a few years they will take it and then bomb again and again again whatever it takes. It is easy for those of us who are not the announced target in the crosshairs to say that the weapon would not be used. The target is not as sure and will not trust that assessment. Funny thing is, that’s exactly what Iran could say about Israel and the US. And all bombing will do is underline that Iran is RIGHT. That they do need nukes, and need them as soon as possible. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2009, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/52 "2009-04-20T01:10:51Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > The Iranians learned a lesson from [Osirak](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Opera) and built their nuclear facilities underground and bomb-hardened. They also have a pretty good air force and are significantly farther away from Israel. If Israel tries to destroy the reactors, Israel will fail, and it’s even money whether any of their planes will even get home again. I think you underestimate Israel in this regard. Bomb-hardened and elusive the nuclear sites may be, but Iran’s military conventionally isn’t much of a match for Israel, especially in terms of air superiority. The have AWACS that we sold them, and long-range bombers capable of committing to such an attack. The Iranian air defences, being Russian and old in origin, hardly stand a chance. Not saying anyone should attack anyone, just saying. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2009, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/53 "2009-04-20T01:13:56Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > How well do the Iranis sleep knowing Israel is plotting a strike against them? If they do it, it will be unprovoked and wrong. Why do the citizens of Iran deserve to die because of your suspicions? Because the Iranians are on record for having plotted and openly wishing the demise of Israel first? How would you feel if you were an Israeli? OK with that? ---
**Author:** ![Argent\_Towers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e8c25b/32.png) [@Argent\_Towers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Argent_Towers)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2009, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/54 "2009-04-20T01:18:11Z")
Also it’s worth noting that one nuclear bomb would completely obliterate Israel because it’s such a tiny country. Compared to Iran, it’s like the size of a flea. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2009, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/55 "2009-04-20T01:42:09Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Funny thing is, that’s exactly what Iran could say about Israel and the US. Israeli leadership have openly called for the destruction of Iran? American leadership has? Uh, no. Recipe for peace? No. The least chance of being destroyed? They will conclude so, right or wrong. Let me put it this way. There is a man who you know is unstable and who has publicly stated that he wants to see you and your family dead. You see him coming towards your daughter with a rifle and aiming it. You have a gun and he knows you have a gun. And you are an amazingly expert shot. Some other people are telling you not to worry, he won’t shoot, 'cause he knows that you’d then shoot and kill him. Would you risk your daughter’s life on that call? Maybe you would, I don’t know, but the fathers and mothers in Israel will not. Of that I am sure. Maybe they’ll try to take careful aim and just get hit the arm holding the gun but they _will_ act if friends do not succeed in convincing the man to not raise his rifle any higher. ---
**Author:** ![Argent\_Towers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e8c25b/32.png) [@Argent\_Towers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Argent_Towers)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2009, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/56 "2009-04-20T01:46:06Z")
That’s a bad analogy to use because **Der Trihs** has made it clear in other threads that he doesn’t agree with private citizens being able to own guns. If it were up to him, nobody would have the capability to defend themselves at all. Of course, psychopaths would still be able to shoot you - like the man with the rifle in your scenario - because they don’t give a fuck about the law, but in Der Trihs Utopia, YOU would not have the pistol to begin with. So you would basically just have to let your daughter be shot to death. Hey, you can always have another daughter, right? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2009, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/57 "2009-04-20T01:53:51Z")
Oh please let’s not diverge into gun control! ---
**Author:** ![Argent\_Towers](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e8c25b/32.png) [@Argent\_Towers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Argent_Towers)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2009, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/58 "2009-04-20T01:55:53Z")
_I’m not trying to_. It just seems clear that DT has an overall belief system - which manifests itself in both his ideas about gun control and his ideas about this Israel situation - that people shouldn’t be able to defend themselves. ---
**Author:** ![Notassmartasithought](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/c0e974/32.png) [@Notassmartasithought](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Notassmartasithought)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2009, 3:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/59 "2009-04-20T03:57:26Z")
Here’s a novel idea. The Netanyahu government could decide to negotiate in good faith with the Palestinian Authority, and the other regional states could persuade the other Palestinian hardliners to buy into an agreement, and the issue of a devastating nuclear event in the region could be put to bed. It’s interesting in this thread that somehow that’s not part of the calculus of Israeli or Iranian options. That’s not to say that Iran’s intent to build a nuclear weapon is rooted in the Israel/Palestine issue, I believe it lays in the varied aspirations of the Iranian government and people. But it would clearly remove Israel from any list of ideological threats to Iran. Once that’s done, old fashioned deterence will begin to stabalize the region. ---
**Author:** ![Henrichek](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/5daacb/32.png) [@Henrichek](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Henrichek)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2009, 4:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495/60 "2009-04-20T04:01:40Z")
I am still not convinced that Iran intends to develop nuclear weapons. However, it is hard to blame them if they are doing so given their threat picture. With USA using the same WMD pretext to invade Iraq despite the non-existence of said weapons, and now this sabre rattling coming out of Israel, it appears that scrambling to develop the bomb might be a logical step for them to take. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/israeli-military-is-preparing-itself-to-launch-a-massive-aerial-assault-on-iran/493495.md?page=4)