I think they want them for the same reason Israel does, for their own security. I would guess that Iran would be much less likely to be invaded by USA and Israel if they have nuclear weapons in their arsenal.
If they develop nukes, they would probably not be used to issue threats, since as you mentioned, using them would result in the annihalation of Iran.
How well would Iran’s government be at controlling the nukes from the wrong hands? If one went off in Israel, or the US unclaimed what would happen? How would MAD know to target the right country?
Betcha at some point Italy’s gonna have a big earthquake.
Some of those wrong hands are really scary.
I agree. They know full well that they could never use nukes first because the whole world would turn against them with a vengeance. And they seem more rational to me than George Bush any day of the week.
They want them because they have seen their neighbors who did not have them being invaded.
It is the right and the duty of the Iranian government to seek the best way to defend themselves and I think that they will have nukes and the west will have to get used to the idea and no, they are not going to attack anybody with them.
The Iranians learned a lesson from Osirak and built their nuclear facilities underground and bomb-hardened. They also have a pretty good air force and are significantly farther away from Israel. If Israel tries to destroy the reactors, Israel will fail, and it’s even money whether any of their planes will even get home again.
Seconded.
Just look at a map. Immediately west of Iran is Iraq. Immediately east of Iran is Afghanistan. Immediately north of Iran is Georgia. Pop quizz : what do these 3 countries have in common, besides being oil rich ? Anyone ?
Georgia is oil rich? I guess they must have found a bunch of oil since I lived in Tbilisi. :rolleyes: Azerbaijan has some oil and Turkmenistan has gas. Georgia has some old Soviet concrete stuff and a few rusty Ladas.
This analysis, in the very Left of center Haaretz, may be of note.
If talks fail, as most in Israel at least, expect they will, then Israel will not risk a nuclear armed Iran (who could funnel a weapon to any one or allow one to be “stolen”, etc.) , no matter what the cost. Even if it only delays them by a few years they will take it and then bomb again and again again whatever it takes. It is easy for those of us who are not the announced target in the crosshairs to say that the weapon would not be used. The target is not as sure and will not trust that assessment.
Israel bombing Iran again and again is a recipe for peace in that region? I never would’ve thunk it!
How well do the Iranis sleep knowing Israel is plotting a strike against them? If they do it, it will be unprovoked and wrong. Why do the citizens of Iran deserve to die because of your suspicions?
Yeah, riiiiiight. No one does that. No one lets such weapons out of their control.
Funny thing is, that’s exactly what Iran could say about Israel and the US.
And all bombing will do is underline that Iran is RIGHT. That they do need nukes, and need them as soon as possible.
I think you underestimate Israel in this regard. Bomb-hardened and elusive the nuclear sites may be, but Iran’s military conventionally isn’t much of a match for Israel, especially in terms of air superiority. The have AWACS that we sold them, and long-range bombers capable of committing to such an attack. The Iranian air defences, being Russian and old in origin, hardly stand a chance.
Not saying anyone should attack anyone, just saying.
Because the Iranians are on record for having plotted and openly wishing the demise of Israel first? How would you feel if you were an Israeli? OK with that?
Also it’s worth noting that one nuclear bomb would completely obliterate Israel because it’s such a tiny country. Compared to Iran, it’s like the size of a flea.
Israeli leadership have openly called for the destruction of Iran? American leadership has? Uh, no.
Recipe for peace? No. The least chance of being destroyed? They will conclude so, right or wrong.
Let me put it this way. There is a man who you know is unstable and who has publicly stated that he wants to see you and your family dead. You see him coming towards your daughter with a rifle and aiming it. You have a gun and he knows you have a gun. And you are an amazingly expert shot.
Some other people are telling you not to worry, he won’t shoot, 'cause he knows that you’d then shoot and kill him.
Would you risk your daughter’s life on that call?
Maybe you would, I don’t know, but the fathers and mothers in Israel will not. Of that I am sure.
Maybe they’ll try to take careful aim and just get hit the arm holding the gun but they will act if friends do not succeed in convincing the man to not raise his rifle any higher.
That’s a bad analogy to use because Der Trihs has made it clear in other threads that he doesn’t agree with private citizens being able to own guns. If it were up to him, nobody would have the capability to defend themselves at all. Of course, psychopaths would still be able to shoot you - like the man with the rifle in your scenario - because they don’t give a fuck about the law, but in Der Trihs Utopia, YOU would not have the pistol to begin with. So you would basically just have to let your daughter be shot to death. Hey, you can always have another daughter, right?
Oh please let’s not diverge into gun control!
I’m not trying to. It just seems clear that DT has an overall belief system - which manifests itself in both his ideas about gun control and his ideas about this Israel situation - that people shouldn’t be able to defend themselves.
Here’s a novel idea.
The Netanyahu government could decide to negotiate in good faith with the Palestinian Authority, and the other regional states could persuade the other Palestinian hardliners to buy into an agreement, and the issue of a devastating nuclear event in the region could be put to bed. It’s interesting in this thread that somehow that’s not part of the calculus of Israeli or Iranian options.
That’s not to say that Iran’s intent to build a nuclear weapon is rooted in the Israel/Palestine issue, I believe it lays in the varied aspirations of the Iranian government and people. But it would clearly remove Israel from any list of ideological threats to Iran. Once that’s done, old fashioned deterence will begin to stabalize the region.
I am still not convinced that Iran intends to develop nuclear weapons. However, it is hard to blame them if they are doing so given their threat picture. With USA using the same WMD pretext to invade Iraq despite the non-existence of said weapons, and now this sabre rattling coming out of Israel, it appears that scrambling to develop the bomb might be a logical step for them to take.
