# It takes 67 senate votes to impeach. Please don't waste our time. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 23, 2018, 3:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298 "2018-01-23T15:24:15Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![Bijou\_Drains](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bijou_drains/32/2814_2.png) [@Bijou\_Drains](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bijou_Drains)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2018, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298/121 "2018-01-25T22:29:26Z")
Clinton was impeached basically by lying about sex. And now it’s possible that Trump may have paid off the porn star with campaign cash and he could lie about that. Might be history repeating itself. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2018, 11:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298/122 "2018-01-25T23:12:42Z")
> [@Bijou\_Drains](#): > > Clinton was impeached basically by lying about sex. And now it’s possible that Trump may have paid off the porn star with campaign cash and he could lie about that. Might be history repeating itself. I was willing to give Bill a pass on that one, so to be fair I will do the same for Trump. But not on colluding with enemies of the State to fix elections. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [January 25, 2018, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298/123 "2018-01-25T23:23:16Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > This country has more pressing problems than an infantile president. The sick? The poor? Prescription opiod addicts from an irresponsible lack of regulation? Want to just forget them to spend a year taking a roll call of senators who won’t publicly denounce Trump as a poopy head? Um, no. An infantile President could get into a nuclear war with North Korea or hell, Iran. Pence is a mediocrity. But I much prefer him over Trump. Because, you know, mushroom clouds. > [@Ashtura](#): > > I have a strong feeling Pence has been deliberately left out of the loop and shielded from anything terribly nefarious for this very scenario. I feel he’s Trump’s insurance policy against impeachment (since his social views at least SHOULD be scary to democrats), and the insurance policy for the Republican party in general in case Trump does get forcibly removed. Trump cares nothing about the GOP. So there’s no reason for him to keep Pence out of the loop. Quite the contrary. Pence, OTOH, would want maintain plausible deniability. I’m just saying he would have to shield himself: nobody except his staff would do it for him. [In fact, Pence is complicit](https://shareblue.com/pence-has-new-questions-to-answer-sen-blumenthal-says-vp-must-come-clean-on-flynn/) as he oversaw the hiring of Flynn during the transition. Mueller has the full dump of Pence’s emails. But “Complicit”, does not imply, “Impeachable offense”. We’ll have to see what turns up. If the evidence is damning, then the it’s in the interest of the GOP to slot Ryan in, rather than wait for Pelosi. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2018, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298/124 "2018-01-26T00:43:06Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > [In fact, Pence is complicit](https://shareblue.com/pence-has-new-questions-to-answer-sen-blumenthal-says-vp-must-come-clean-on-flynn/) as he oversaw the hiring of Flynn during the transition. Mueller has the full dump of Pence’s emails. But “Complicit”, does not imply, “Impeachable offense”. We’ll have to see what turns up. If the evidence is damning, then the it’s in the interest of the GOP to slot Ryan in, rather than wait for Pelosi. So you think it’s remotely realistic that the investigation will wrap up and there’ll be time for a double impeachment before the midterms? Ooookay. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2018, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298/125 "2018-01-26T01:18:21Z")
**Measure for Measure** , I don’t think the Founders’ mistake was in assuming how the elite would behave. I think their mistake was in assuming that there _is_ an elite. I think it’s now all too clear that, while some people may have more money, or economic standing, or status, than others, they’re still just the same old idiots. The “elite” didn’t let Trump in because they were bowing to the will of the masses; they let him in because they are the masses, or a cross-section of them. ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2018, 1:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298/126 "2018-01-26T01:26:55Z")
Breaking news–NYT: Trump ordered Mueller fired last year, but backed off when White House Counsel threatened to quit. Just let trump follow his heart–he’ll ultimately make impeachment a no brainer. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2018, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298/127 "2018-01-26T02:07:40Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > So you think it’s remotely realistic that the investigation will wrap up and there’ll be time for a double impeachment before the midterms? Ooookay. ## FTR, yes I believe it is remotely realistic, but not probable. Barriers are twofold. First I suspect Mueller’s evidence against Pence will exist, but be manageable. Second, there are those institutional issues you allude to. But when political interests come into alignment, I say Congress can get things done reasonably quickly. But of course such is generally not the rule - otherwise the relevant law would have passed already! **Chronos** : Good point, though this takes us far afield from the thread. IMHO, an elite does exist (defined sociologically, not intrinsically as the founding fathers seemed to think) but it varies in quality over time and space. One key determinant of elite quality is external threat. Two examples: 1. South Korea and Taiwan faced existential threats from their communist neighbors. This encouraged their elite to level up their game and kept cronyism contained (though definitely not curbed). South Korea for example was able to protect certain infant industries (not unusual) but also release protections when they weren’t meeting performance targets (very unusual). _Why_ they were able to do this isn’t settled opinion: I offer a WAG. 2. US CEOs had constrained executive pay demands from 1945-1980. It was a golden age of economic equality (and OBTW, economic performance during the Carter years was not perfect but the problems were exaggerated.) The restraining influences on the elite were (a) discipline imposed by the threat of socialism/communism, internal and external and (b) weakness during the era of what we now call supply side ideology. The first (a) supports my theme, (b) less so. * * * The challenge to political system designers is to build robust institutions, part of which involves cultivating a quality elite. Citizens United, to take one example, undermines elite quality by both raising and lowering the entry barriers to elitehood. Capturing monopoly power for a brief span of time, a situation that owes as much to luck and circumstance as cunning, is sufficient to wield political power. The Koch Brothers shape much of our debate _though they don’t give many interviews to reporters_ and their books focus on business management. They aren’t the sort of elite the founding fathers envisioned, but it’s what we have today. And the Mercers are even less qualified. At least the Kochs have been politically active since the 1970s. When a sudden cash infusion is necessary\* and sufficient for entry into elitehood for a particular political party, things are bound to get strange. - Well, quasi-necessary. While today’s GOP is beholden to the donor class, they also must contend with erratic populists of various stripes. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2018, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298/128 "2018-01-26T02:16:45Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > Big assumption right there. Impeachment proceedings all but guarantee nothing whatsoever gets done. If it fails to remove Trump, chalk the whole year up as a giant goose egg. > OTOH, with business as “normal”, there is at least hope that something useful will get passed. More so if the Dems take over Congress. This country has more pressing problems than an infantile president. The sick? The poor? Prescription opiod addicts from an irresponsible lack of regulation? Want to just forget them to spend a year taking a roll call of senators who won’t publicly denounce Trump as a poopy head? Dems taking the Senate is a pipe dream. Blue wave or not, they’re not going to keep all of their seats AND flip two of eight red ones. The House, maybe. So you think Dems are going to get any legislation past both the Senate _and_ Trumpo the Clown? Good luck with that. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2018, 3:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298/129 "2018-01-26T03:47:57Z")
> [@Measure\_for\_Measure](#): > > Um, no. An infantile President could get into a nuclear war with North Korea or hell, Iran. > > Pence is a mediocrity. But I much prefer him over Trump. Because, you know, mushroom clouds. I’m afraid of mushroom clouds, too. Nearly everybody is. BUT- Making, “Um, no \_\_\_\_” style statements doesn’t suggest any theory of cause and effect that transforms these fears into Senate votes. You may prefer Pence, and that’s fine, but President Pence is not an option. Not without 67 votes. Without 67 votes, a failed impeachment basically muzzles the federal government for a year- you know, that thingy that is supposed to represent the will of the citizens? Sure, the franchise has been extended to minorities and women, but the whole thing is diluted to nothing if the government itself is rendered sclerotic. Then things only pass when the big donors call up and say, “Pass a tax cut or quit asking for money.” Why, they didn’t even wait to read the bill before passing that one! But the interests of the general public? Meh. Why impose that on ourselves even more than we already get? A failed impeachment has a negative value. Business as “usual” at least leaves hope for worthwhile results. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2018, 3:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298/130 "2018-01-26T03:52:04Z")
> [@Johnny\_Ace](#): > > Dems taking the Senate is a pipe dream. Blue wave or not, they’re not going to keep all of their seats AND flip two of eight red ones. The House, maybe. So you think Dems are going to get any legislation past both the Senate _and_ Trumpo the Clown? Good luck with that. As with the Mueller investigation, I am going to withhold judgment until after the midterm votes are counted. Remember, Trump being elected was considered impossible up until it happened. Plus, I think with a Speaker Pelosi (or possibly a Majority Leader Schumer), Trump may decide to be influenced by the other winners. The whole process will probably appear asinine, but I do think some business could get through. And anyway, if you think the Dems can’t get legislation past this Senate, what makes you think they can achieve removal from office? ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2018, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298/131 "2018-01-26T04:27:41Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > As with the Mueller investigation, I am going to withhold judgment until after the midterm votes are counted. Remember, Trump being elected was considered impossible up until it happened. Let’s delve a little deeper into things. [https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United\_States\_Senate\_elections,\_2018#Most\_recent\_election\_predictions](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_elections,_2018#Most_recent_election_predictions) What I presented was the best-case scenario. For every blue seat Dems lose, add another red seat that they’ll need to flip. Now… (latest polling, by NYT as of two days ago) 8 R incumbents up for reelection: 5 Safe R, 1 Lean R, 2 tossup 25 D/I incumbents up for reelection: 16 Safe D/I (including Bernie Sanders and Angus King), 6 Lean D, 3 tossup So let’s assume we can throw out the Safe seats. That leaves Dems needing to win 10 of the 12 remaining ‘close’ seats. Following is the list of those states: Tossups: AZ, IN, MO, NV, WV Lean R: TN Lean D: FL, MN\*, MT, ND, OH, WI \*- special election Feeling lucky? The odds tell me no way. > [@](#): > > Plus, I think with a Speaker Pelosi (or possibly a Majority Leader Schumer), Trump may decide to be influenced by the other winners. The whole process will probably appear asinine, but I do think some business could get through. > > And anyway, if you think the Dems can’t get legislation past this Senate, what makes you think they can achieve removal from office? I don’t. I think, if the Dems control the House, that they can impeach him. No way will enough Senate Pubbies turn tail enough to convict unless there’s something so blatant that they have no other choice, and with the Pubby shit-flinging machine already droning into action against Mueller and the FBI the bar becomes even higher for conviction. But at this point I’m perfectly fine with a stalled Congress hamstringing Trump from doing even more to fuck the country up for a year. Playing for time until 2020 is better to me than the chance that Trump will find the one reasonable bone in his body and use it without his toadies steering him away from it. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2018, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298/132 "2018-01-26T04:27:41Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > And anyway, if you think the Dems can’t get legislation past this Senate, what makes you think they can achieve removal from office? Trump is polling at [39% approval](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo). If the trendline falls south of 30%, the political calculus could change. Ditto if there’s a wave election. I agree that strategic aspects are relevant and deserve strong consideration. I reject the idea that we have better things to do than rid ourselves of Trump. Though de-fanging his nuclear capabilities would be an excellent first step. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2018, 4:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298/133 "2018-01-26T04:49:44Z")
Well I disagree with both of you. Getting rid of Trump just isn’t the top priority if it can’t be done. And logjamming Congress is not what it is for. McCain is probably out, Jones is seated, and there are enough R dissenters that it is already hard for anything to get through Congress. Cooperating with Dems is the path, and giving them things they want is the required compromise. Perhaps limiting Trump in the way you suggest would be an acceptable middle road between “failed impeachment” and “total capitulation/DO NOTHING OMG!!1!1!” Sure, if this happens, if that happens, maybe the Senate could convict. Maybe one will come true. Though as Boehner used to say, “If ifs and buts were candy and nuts, every day would be Christmas.” ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2018, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298/134 "2018-01-26T04:59:27Z")
One other thing, which you brought up. My model assumes that McCain doesn’t retire and doesn’t show up to vote. If he retires, the odds get even worse (11 of 13 close seats if McCain’s seat is a tossup like Flake’s is). And if he stays and votes, worse than that: Dems need 11 of 12. The odds are _way_ in my favor. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2018, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298/135 "2018-01-26T05:08:54Z")
Well hopefully even if the Dems take the House there’s enough grownups amongst them to vote against impeachment proceedings. I’m sorry people, you’re going to have to drag yourself through 4 years of Trump, mushroom cloud nightmares and all. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2018, 5:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298/136 "2018-01-26T05:13:58Z")
Well, [this](https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/) suggests there are but 6 safe R seats. If the Dems win the rest, they take the majority. Barely. Long shot? Likely, but there is a lot of angst, strum and drang out there these days. [Look](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/special-elections-so-far-point-to-a-democratic-wave-in-2018/) at the big Dem swings on the record thus far! ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2018, 6:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298/137 "2018-01-26T06:51:34Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > Well, [this](https://www.270towin.com/2018-senate-election/) suggests there are but 6 safe R seats. If the Dems win the rest, they take the majority. Barely. Long shot? Likely, but there is a lot of angst, strum and drang out there these days. [Look](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/special-elections-so-far-point-to-a-democratic-wave-in-2018/) at the big Dem swings on the record thus far! My model has only 5 safe R seats. And those two D seats would make 50-49, _if McCain’s situation stays the same as it is now_. The man has brain cancer, and a particularly virulent form at that. How long do you think he’ll be able to keep his seat? He obviously can’t travel now. And when the Republican bullshit machine is done with D’s? How much of a wave do you expect then? I don’t know about you, but I have no faith in the common sense of the average voter anymore. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2018, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298/138 "2018-01-26T14:09:46Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Well hopefully even if the Dems take the House there’s enough grownups amongst them to vote against impeachment proceedings. I’m sorry people, you’re going to have to drag yourself through 4 years of Trump, mushroom cloud nightmares and all. ISTM that the chance of North Korea or Iran starting something are greater if they think the US is paralyzed with impeachment hearings. Saying “Congress and Trump wouldn’t be able to accomplish anything” has implications way beyond domestic policy. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2018, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298/139 "2018-01-26T14:26:04Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > ISTM that the chance of North Korea or Iran starting something are greater if they think the US is paralyzed with impeachment hearings. Saying “Congress and Trump wouldn’t be able to accomplish anything” has implications way beyond domestic policy. It seems to me that the election of a President with severe personality disorders and a non-existent grasp on policy has emboldened our adversaries. Trump voters own that. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [January 26, 2018, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298/140 "2018-01-26T14:39:11Z")
> [@Ravenman](#): > > It seems to me that the election of a President with severe personality disorders and a non-existent grasp on policy has emboldened our adversaries. Trump voters own that. And Democrats own it if they embolden our adversaries even further, by paralyzing the nation with a process that won’t accomplish anything. Regards, Shodan [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/it-takes-67-senate-votes-to-impeach-please-dont-waste-our-time/807298.md?page=8)