# Italian seismologists charged with manslaughter for not foreseeing L'Aquila earthquake **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [September 21, 2011, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085 "2011-09-21T17:03:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Sattua](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sattua/32/11906_2.png) [@Sattua](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sattua)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/21 "2012-10-22T19:26:01Z")
So Italy has just convicted Italians of providing confusing and contradictory information? Talk about a complete lack of ability to self-examine. ---
**Author:** ![Reyemile](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/46a35a/32.png) [@Reyemile](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Reyemile)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 7:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/22 "2012-10-22T19:27:41Z")
Reading the article, I can’t even begin to tell what the scientists are actually accused of–their report apparently explicitly identified the risks they’re alleged to have concealed! The government official who reported “no risk,” on the other hand, is a grade-A dickweed. I can’t condone his sentencing in this case, but it’s hard to get really angry about it, either. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 7:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/23 "2012-10-22T19:28:08Z")
If only they’d kept the trains running on time and allied themselves with a strong Genman chancellor, all would have been well. ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/24 "2012-10-22T21:32:25Z")
[Moderating] I’ve merged two different threads on this subject - one by **2square4u** , started when the charges were laid, and recently bumped when the verdict came in, and the more recent one by **Deeg**. [/Moderating] ---
**Author:** ![BigAppleBucky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigapplebucky/32/178_2.png) [@BigAppleBucky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigAppleBucky)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 11:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/25 "2012-10-22T23:11:27Z")
The AOL headline described the court as medieval. _Wood floats . . . Burn the witch!_ But the court reminded me more of the Stalinist courts of the 1930’s. **Scientists who should go to prison:** Those who said tobacco was harmless or even healthful when it was already well known tobacco caused all sorts of illnesses. **Scientists who deserve prison more than the Italian seismologists:** Global warming denialists. **"Scientists" who deserve loony bin lockup:** The ones who deny the that the universe and the Earth are more than 6,000 years old. At least any astronomers who miss the big asteroid that destroys Earth won’t have to worry about conviction and imprisonment. I believe I’ve read a US seismologist’s prediction for an earthquake. It went something like: A scale 9 quake is likely to hit somewhere in northern California sometime in the next 100 years. Given that prediction, I wonder how many people moved out of San Francisco? ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [October 22, 2012, 11:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/26 "2012-10-22T23:20:49Z")
The Enlightenment is over. Welcome to Dark Ages 2. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/27 "2012-10-23T00:04:08Z")
I suggest [this article](http://www.nature.com/news/2011/110914/full/477264a.html), written before the trial. ---
**Author:** ![smiling\_bandit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/e9a140/32.png) [@smiling\_bandit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smiling_bandit)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/28 "2012-10-23T02:06:59Z")
To bring out a certain point from the prosecution and angry locals: > [@](#): > > “I’m not crazy,” Picuti says. “I know they can’t predict earthquakes. The basis of the charges is not that they didn’t predict the earthquake. As functionaries of the state, they had certain duties imposed by law: to evaluate and characterize the risks that were present in L’Aquila.” Part of that risk assessment, he says, should have included the density of the urban population and the known fragility of many ancient buildings in the city centre. “They were obligated to evaluate the degree of risk given all these factors,” he says, “and they did not.” And this is basically asking to be wizards, not scientists. While foreshocks aren’t uncommon, months of minor shocks weren’t, if I know my geology, what they really look for in predicting earthquakes. They would be more worried if they saw a few scattered shocks. From the same article: > [@](#): > > Unnerving though these clusters may be, experts agree that seismic swarms rarely precede major earthquakes. So they had pretty good evidence that the area wasn’t about to pop. This time, it turned out to be wrong. Regardless of the specifics of the scientists duty to whom the fuck ever, they gave the best they knew. They clearly spent a lot of time watching and worrying, and couldn’t find any pattern. Even if you assume they knew a major quake was coming, there is simply no way to know when it would arrive, how big it would be, or what kind of damage it would do. You’d need hundreds if not thousands of expert building and foundation inspectors to even make a guess at that - and seismologists do not, in fact, have any such expertise. However, I’ve got to wonder what the FUCK kind of half-assed construction they were using. This is a city which has been obliterated at least twice, and they can’t handle a 6.8?! You get a 6.8 in San Fran, and they fucking _sneer_. Hell, even well-done medieval structures should stand up to a 6.8. if they made sure to thicken the walls. Edited to add: it’s possible that the way we predict seismic threats may change, and it’s possible that the scientific consensus is wrong. I do not fault scientists for going with the consensus. ---
**Author:** ![Rollo\_Tomasi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/58956e/32.png) [@Rollo\_Tomasi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rollo_Tomasi)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/29 "2012-10-23T02:57:06Z")
Maybe I’ve missed it somewhere in the articles, but I don’t get why the seismologists were given the task of risk assessment in terms of the city’s buildings. Does this town not have a civil engineer on hand for that? An architect? A contractor? This whole thing sounds like the city’s building inspectors had been asleep at the wheel, and they’re trying to redirect blame. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 4:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/30 "2012-10-23T04:13:02Z")
Sounds like politics on trial more than science. They had people like [Giampaolo Giuliani](http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/05/laquila-earthquake-prediction-giampaolo-giuliani)scaring the populace with unofficial earthquake predictions so the government had official scientist risk assessors come and hold a meeting and calm the populace down. They did, and the populace took away that they were safe and small earthquakes relieve stress and lower the risk further. So, old people kept doing what their ancestors did, which was run outside at the first sign of a quake. People with faith in science scoffed and stayed inside. Many of them died in their homes. I can’t blame them for being pissed. ---
**Author:** ![thelurkinghorror](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/7c8e57/32.png) [@thelurkinghorror](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/thelurkinghorror)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 4:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/31 "2012-10-23T04:21:27Z")
In general, I am skeptical of the Italian justice system. Not just Knox/Sollecito. That said, I won’t judge based upon the sensational presentation. Still, I am not convinced, my abortion of justice meter is pinging steadily if quietly. I don’t if this is a jury trial or not, but I can’t imagine the average Italian jury is any different. Doubt there’s any geologists on board, “why U no protect us?” It’s like weather prediction, if they say it rains and it doesn’t, nobody cares; if they say it’s clear and it rains, people start writing internet essays about the failures of meteorology. Plus, earthquakes in Italy? Next you’ll tell me that there might be future ones in Turkey, California, or Japan!? Prediction’s not the problem, building code etc. is. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 6:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/32 "2012-10-23T06:39:00Z")
> [@BigAppleBucky](#): > > **Scientists who should go to prison:** > > Those who said tobacco was harmless or even healthful when it was already well known tobacco caused all sorts of illnesses. > **Scientists who deserve prison more than the Italian seismologists:** > Global warming denialists. You left out “9/11 Truthers.” Regarding the convictions: I’m wondering why every purported psychic in Italy hasn’t been rounded up, charged, and convicted. After all, the only way someone could actually foresee a freaking earthquake would be if psychics really did have the powers they claim to have. ---
**Author:** ![Ken001](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/43a26b/32.png) [@Ken001](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ken001)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 7:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/33 "2012-10-23T07:18:40Z")
> [@silenus](#): > > A more careful reading of the article seems to indicate that they were convicted of failing to warn of the dangers, not failing to predict. Their job was to evaluate the town and detail the weak spots and danger zones, and they minimized the potential disaster areas. This resulted is inadequate safety measures being put into place, and people dying as the result. That’s my understanding too. I do think the judicial decision is appalling but it is explicable on one simple level. Allegedly these scientists minimised the risk from earthquake swarms which they were recording. Instead, they should have made no calming noises, no placatory announcements because in doing so, they convinced people no big earthquake was likely. In reality they were in no position to imply or suggest that. Noone - noone can predict earthquakes. So suggesting a big one wasn’t likely meant these scientists were making a prediction. Personally I think reassuring a population which lives with earthquakes makes sense. Why startle the horses? And it certainly shouldn’t lead to prison even when the big one hits. ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 8:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/34 "2012-10-23T08:49:36Z")
Italy’s justice system is a complete joke from top to bottom, and is a large part of why they’re in the economic mess that they’re in (people cannot enforce contracts reasonably as it takes months or years for a case to be heard and come to a conclusion, small companies cannot force public administration to pay up for services on time, and so on — hospitals have, by law, something like 18 months to pay up for services rendered, or did until recently, _ad infinitum_). I can’t think of another major first world nation that is governed as poorly as Italy. It’s a wonder the country manages to function, in any appreciable sense, at all. ---
**Author:** ![Nava](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/da6949/32.png) [@Nava](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nava)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 10:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/35 "2012-10-23T10:04:39Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > I can’t think of another major first world nation that is governed as poorly as Italy. It’s a wonder the country manages to function, in any appreciable sense, at all. I can. Well, I guess that may depend on whether your definition of First World includes Spain, where all governments except two of the regional ones (and some towns) pay things the way farmers used to: IOU, IOU, IOU… then when the next budget comes in, start paying (in theory by order of invoice date) until you run out. But of course if a company or individual’s taxes are one day late, the taxes get autofiled and the money automatically withdrawn from your account with penalties. Ask the healthcare workers in Catalonia what they think of the austerity measures, or the pharmacists all over most of the country. I recommend wearing ear protection. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/36 "2012-10-23T11:54:40Z")
> [@Ken001](#): > > Noone - noone can predict earthquakes. Let’s hire him, then! ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 12:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/37 "2012-10-23T12:57:55Z")
> [@Ludovic](#): > > Let’s hire him, then! Ulysses, is that you? ---
**Author:** ![eclectic\_wench](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/ac91a4/32.png) [@eclectic\_wench](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eclectic_wench)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/38 "2012-10-23T12:58:26Z")
Italy is much, much more insane than anyone can possibly explain. One relevant concept that just doesn’t translate is _bella figura/brutta figura_. Roughly, it’s looking good vs looking bad, but it’s much more hugely important than that sounds. Your image is The Most Important Thing In The World. If you make a _brutta figura_, then it must be someone else’s fault. If it’s remotely related to something someone did - even if it’s entirely your fault - then you are genuinely morally \*outraged \*at him, and he has to pay. This is a moral imperative. The best way I can sum up Italy: in the 2002 World Cup, South Korea knocked Italy out. The South Korean guy who scored the winning goal played for an Italian club. _They fired him._ Because they made a _brutta figura_, and it was his fault, so he had to pay. If they could have put him in jail, they would have. The local government here made a _brutta figura_. That must be someone else’s fault, and that someone must be punished. ---
**Author:** ![Kinthalis](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kinthalis/32/16084_2.png) [@Kinthalis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kinthalis)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 1:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/39 "2012-10-23T13:33:40Z")
Reading through afew articles what seems to have happened, is that these seismologists essentially said that they could not predict earthquakes and that given the condition of some of the buildings, changes would have to be made. They did oint out that resent tremors did not necessarily mean that a big earthquake was coming. Government officials, with 0 scientific backgrounds then summarized this as “no need to worry! Nothing needs to change!” to a community that was scared. The scientific conclusion: Tremors do nto necessarily mean an earthquake is coming, buildings need to be assessed by engineers for the possibility of an earthquake, etc. was sound. ---
**Author:** ![Gedd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gedd/32/4938_2.png) [@Gedd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gedd)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 1:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/40 "2012-10-23T13:54:57Z")
> [@Ken001](#): > > I do think the judicial decision is appalling but it is explicable on one simple level. Allegedly these scientists minimised the risk from earthquake swarms which they were recording. According to the article **jsgoddess** linked to, there was only a minimal risk: > [@](#): > > In 1988, seismic engineer Giuseppe Grandori, now professor emeritus at the Polytechnic of Milan, and his colleagues published a retrospective analysis of seismic swarms in three other earthquake-prone Italian localities (G. Grandori et al. Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 78, 1538–1549; 1988). They concluded that a medium-sized shock in a swarm forecasts a major event within several days about 2% of the time, and Grandori says that the same was probably true for the region around L’Aquila. If they had gotten everyone roused up and evacuated the town (or whatever they would do) they had a 98% chance of looking like fools. I got the feeling from the article that the meeting was kind of a PR event for the politicians. > [@](#): > > Commission sessions are usually closed, so Boschi was surprised to see nearly a dozen local government officials and other non-scientists attending the brief, one-hour meeting, in which the six scientists assessed the swarms of tremors that had rattled the local population. When asked during the meeting if the current seismic swarm could be a precursor to a major quake like the one that levelled L’Aquila in 1703, Boschi said, according to the meeting minutes: “It is unlikely that an earthquake like the one in 1703 could occur in the short term, but the possibility cannot be totally excluded.” That guy is going to jail because there was an earthquake? Should he have gone door to door after the meeting and given people pamphlets on earthquake safety? They asked his opinion, and he gave it! > [@](#): > > To convey the difficulty of communicating risk assessments, [the attorney for the scientists] offers the analogy of being asked the safest way to travel, and recommending flying because it is statistically much safer than car or train. “If the person takes the plane, and the plane is involved in an accident, this doesn’t mean that my advice was wrong,” Sadly stupidity won this round. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085.md?page=3)