# Italian seismologists charged with manslaughter for not foreseeing L'Aquila earthquake **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [September 21, 2011, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085 "2011-09-21T17:03:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/41 "2012-10-23T14:23:37Z")
> [@smiling\_bandit](#): > > However, I’ve got to wonder what the FUCK kind of half-assed construction they were using. This is a city which has been obliterated at least twice, and they can’t handle a 6.8?! You get a 6.8 in San Fran, and they fucking _sneer_. Hell, even well-done medieval structures should stand up to a 6.8. if they made sure to thicken the walls. There have been 12 earthquakes higher than 6.8 in the past century in the entire state of California. The 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake was a 6.9, killed 63, injured 4,000, and caused $6 billion in damage. (Yes, a 2.9 is ~25% stronger, meh. Northridge was a 6.7 and killed about the same and injured much more.) ---
**Author:** ![Sitnam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Sitnam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sitnam)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/42 "2012-10-23T15:27:45Z")
I would have thought all Italian scientists would stand together on this, if this crap stands there is no end to every specialist’s culpability for unpredictable circumstances. Pediatricians will do time for SIDS deaths and Autism diagnoses. I hope other seismologists predict earthquakes everyday in Italy to avoid jail time until they’re released. ---
**Author:** ![Monty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/monty/32/47_2.png) [@Monty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Monty)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/43 "2012-10-23T16:43:15Z")
> [@Sitnam](#): > > I hope other seismologists predict earthquakes everyday in Italy to avoid jail time until they’re released. If the scientists do predict an earthquake every day , then the government’s probably going to arrest, convict, and incarcerate those scientists for “creating a panic” or whatever the local equivalent is. ---
**Author:** ![Machine\_Elf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/82dd89/32.png) [@Machine\_Elf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Machine_Elf)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/44 "2012-10-23T18:29:19Z")
> [@Monty](#): > > If the scientists do predict an earthquake every day , then the government’s probably going to arrest, convict, and incarcerate those scientists for “creating a panic” or whatever the local equivalent is. In other words, anything you say as a professional seismologist in Italy is likely to get you incarcerated. Going forward, I predict a severe shortage of seismologists willing to work in Italy. ---
**Author:** ![Drunky\_Smurf](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drunky_smurf/32/449_2.png) [@Drunky\_Smurf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drunky_Smurf)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/45 "2012-10-23T19:07:54Z")
And it’s starting. Four disaster experts quit. [http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=163474348](http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=163474348) ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/46 "2012-10-23T19:13:38Z")
“Forget it, Jake. It’s Italy.” ---
**Author:** ![Ken001](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/43a26b/32.png) [@Ken001](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ken001)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/47 "2012-10-23T19:23:43Z")
> [@eclectic\_wench](#): > > Italy is much, much more insane than anyone can possibly explain. > > One relevant concept that just doesn’t translate is _bella figura/brutta figura_. Roughly, it’s looking good vs looking bad, but it’s much more hugely important than that sounds. Your image is The Most Important Thing In The World. If you make a _brutta figura_, then it must be someone else’s fault. If it’s remotely related to something someone did - even if it’s entirely your fault - then you are genuinely morally \*outraged \*at him, and he has to pay. This is a moral imperative. > > The best way I can sum up Italy: in the 2002 World Cup, South Korea knocked Italy out. The South Korean guy who scored the winning goal played for an Italian club. _They fired him._ Because they made a _brutta figura_, and it was his fault, so he had to pay. If they could have put him in jail, they would have. > > The local government here made a _brutta figura_. That must be someone else’s fault, and that someone must be punished. Fascinating and thank you for this explanation. Cultural subtleties don’t translate in the international press. ---
**Author:** ![Ken001](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/43a26b/32.png) [@Ken001](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ken001)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2012, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/48 "2012-10-23T19:30:29Z")
> [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](#): > > I can’t think of another major first world nation that is governed as poorly as Italy. It’s a wonder the country manages to function, in any appreciable sense, at all. Mmm…Greece? Spain? Heck, Ireland and Iceland. Funny old thing Italy. From the outside it has looked like a political basket case since the end of World War II - governments have changed as often as every 9 months. Nevertheless the Italian economy has boomed - almost in spite of the politicians and the current difficulties obscure what is (or has been up til now) a successful first world economy. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/49 "2012-10-24T00:18:51Z")
Those [PIIGS](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PIGS_(economics))! :p;) Nature Magazine weights in: [http://www.nature.com/news/shock-and-law-1.11643](http://www.nature.com/news/shock-and-law-1.11643) > [@](#): > > “I’m not crazy. I know they can’t predict earthquakes,” the Italian public prosecutor Fabio Picuti told Nature last year. He was speaking as the manslaughter trial began in the ruined town of L’Aquila of six scientists and one government official for their alleged role in the deaths of 309 people in the quake of April 2009 (see Nature 477, 264–269; 2011). On Monday evening, the seven were found guilty and sentenced to six years in prison (see Nature [http://doi.org/jkp](http://doi.org/jkp); 2012). The verdict is perverse and the sentence ludicrous. Already some scientists have responded with warnings about the chilling effect on their ability to serve in public risk assessments. > > Even Picuti was surprised. He had requested a prison term of four years. “We’ll have to read the judge’s motivations to understand why,” he said. Under Italian law, judge Marco Billi has up to three months to reveal his reasoning. > [@](#): > > The seven — Bernardo De Bernardinis, Enzo Boschi, Giulio Selvaggi, Franco Barberi, Claudio Eva, Mauro Dolce and Gian Michele Calvi — are appealing against the verdict. They will remain free until the appeals process is finished, which could take years. > > That provides an opportunity. There will be time enough to ponder the wider implications of the verdict, but for now all efforts should be channelled into protest, both at the severity of the sentence and at scientists being criminalized for the way their opinions were communicated. Science has little political clout in Italy and the trial proceeded in an absence of informed public debate that would have been unthinkable in most European countries or in the United States. Billi should promptly explain his decision, and the scientific community should promptly challenge it. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/50 "2012-10-24T00:33:37Z")
Criminals remain free until appeals processes are finished? Dear lord, Italy really is a fucked up country. ---
**Author:** ![JRDelirious](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jrdelirious/32/9531_2.png) [@JRDelirious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JRDelirious)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 1:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/51 "2012-10-24T01:42:55Z")
So, the scientists accurately say “we see no sign that there is an imminent\* greater\* chance of a major earthquake”. Politicians and civilians miss the underlying fact that there being “no _greater_” chance does not magically negate that they are located in an\* already high risk \*zone. Then the worst happens, and the public wants to feel someone was criminally negligent. The prosecutor seems like essentially trying to send a message of “do not reassure unless you can guarantee”. Which would be chilling for a LOT of safety evaluations and informed-consent scenarios… (“You said you’d save my leg” “We said we’d try” “You didn’t KNOW you could!”) > [@drewtwo99](#): > > Criminals remain free until appeals processes are finished? Dear lord, Italy really is a fucked up country. That is also done in some cases in the US, you know, subject to certain conditions and depending on the offense. ---
**Author:** ![dimmy\_derko](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/43a26b/32.png) [@dimmy\_derko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dimmy_derko)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/52 "2012-10-24T13:45:48Z")
> [@drewtwo99](#): > > Criminals remain free until appeals processes are finished? Dear lord, Italy really is a fucked up country. They are hardly likely to be repeating their alleged crimes in their current lifetimes and certainly not within Italian jurisdiction. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/53 "2012-10-24T13:52:18Z")
Worth reading [this article](http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2012/10/mischaracterizations-of-laquila-lawsuit.html). Guy claims that the scientists were not prosecuted for failing to predict the earthquake. Rather that they deliberately - or at least recklessly - downplayed the likelihood of an earthquake, motivated by a desire to reassure the public and/or to discredit some amateur who had made some noise by (accurately, as it turned out) predicting the earthquake. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Miskatonic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr.miskatonic/32/310_2.png) [@Mr.Miskatonic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Miskatonic)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/54 "2012-10-24T15:09:02Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > Worth reading [this article](http://rogerpielkejr.blogspot.com/2012/10/mischaracterizations-of-laquila-lawsuit.html). Guy claims that the scientists were not prosecuted for failing to predict the earthquake. Rather that they deliberately - or at least recklessly - downplayed the likelihood of an earthquake, motivated by a desire to reassure the public and/or to discredit some amateur who had made some noise by (accurately, as it turned out) predicting the earthquake. Its horseshit. Claiming that they were ‘reckless’ when the evidence did not indicate an imminent earthquake is horseshit. The scientists were brought in, evaluated to the best the evidence could indicate, and then local authorities made oversized reassurances based on this. This is an earthquake prone region we are talking about. The buildings should have been built to survive such an earthquake or at least minimize casualties. They weren’t. The public communication people overstated the case that the scientists presented (“An earthquake is no more likely than any other time, but you live in an earthquake prone area”). The scientists were made the scapegoats for telling what the evidence showed. Plain and simple. No amount of horseshit handwaving blog entries will change that. I’ve seen a lot of handwaving by science writers who should fucking know better. Making excuses for this persecution is appalling. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/55 "2012-10-24T15:18:48Z")
> [@Mr.Miskatonic](#): > > Its horseshit. Claiming that they were ‘reckless’ when the evidence did not indicate an imminent earthquake is horseshit. The scientists were brought in, evaluated to the best the evidence could indicate, and then local authorities made oversized reassurances based on this. > > This is an earthquake prone region we are talking about. The buildings should have been built to survive such an earthquake or at least minimize casualties. They weren’t. The public communication people overstated the case that the scientists presented (“An earthquake is no more likely than any other time, but you live in an earthquake prone area”). The scientists were made the scapegoats for telling what the evidence showed. Plain and simple. No amount of horseshit handwaving blog entries will change that. You need some actual basis for these claims. If you’ve followed the trial and the evidence brought out and this is your conclusion, then it’s worth something. If you’re just a guy who is in general highly sympathetic to scientists and are presuming on that basis what the scientists are likely to have done, then it’s not. ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/56 "2012-10-24T15:23:49Z")
> [@Ken001](#): > > Mmm…Greece? Spain? Heck, Ireland and Iceland. > > Funny old thing Italy. From the outside it has looked like a political basket case since the end of World War II - governments have changed as often as every 9 months. Nevertheless the Italian economy has boomed - almost in spite of the politicians and the current difficulties obscure what is (or has been up til now) a successful first world economy. There’s no way Ireland or Iceland are as badly governed as Italy. Insane Italian bureaucracy seeps into every aspect of life. Laws are just written willy-nilly and nobody actually thinks through the effects of what they are proposing. Italy has a permanent minister who is charged with deleting old laws. He delete’s them hundreds at a time, every day. Sometimes he deletes a law that regulated how university professors are paid. Oops. Every business interfacing with public administration has to pass through a mafia check. Printers serving universities have to do it. Of course, the check is so onerous that you get monopolies arising because nobody can be bothered completing the check. Our printer was charging exorbitant fees to print out A3 posters, because they had a monopoly on serving public administration in the entire city. Every government completely changes the voting process in order to gerrymander the vote. Can you imagine if the UK or US (or Ireland and Iceland for that matter) changed how votes are counted every four years? That’s what it is like in Italy. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Miskatonic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr.miskatonic/32/310_2.png) [@Mr.Miskatonic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Miskatonic)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/57 "2012-10-24T15:25:57Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > You need some actual basis for these claims. > > If you’ve followed the trial and the evidence brought out and this is your conclusion, then it’s worth something. > > If you’re just a guy who is in general highly sympathetic to scientists and are presuming on that basis what the scientists are likely to have done, then it’s not. I’ve read enough to know that the scientists presented what the evidence indicated to the people who hired them to assess the risk. If that’s grounds for being convicted of mansalughter in Italy then that country should be ashamed. As for the other factors, you can fucking google about the failure of building codes in that region. The scientists were not responsible for this. Handwaving and saying ‘its more complex than that’ doesn’t cut it. Sure its ‘more complex’ all trials are. But at the end of the day the scientists did their job, correctly. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 3:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/58 "2012-10-24T15:28:47Z")
> [@dimmy\_derko](#): > > They are hardly likely to be repeating their alleged crimes in their current lifetimes and certainly not within Italian jurisdiction. Why do I have a vision of these scientists hiding in dark alleys, making reassuring seismic predictions to helpless passers-by? 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 3:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/59 "2012-10-24T15:30:27Z")
> [@Mr.Miskatonic](#): > > As for the other factors, you can fucking google about the failure of building codes in that region. The scientists were not responsible for this. Actually the talk about building codes is handwaving by you. No one is accusing the scientists of writing building codes. But one person being negligent in one area doesn’t absolve other people from liability for their own negligence in their own area. This is common in other countries as well, not just Italy. ---
**Author:** ![Mr.Miskatonic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mr.miskatonic/32/310_2.png) [@Mr.Miskatonic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Miskatonic)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2012, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085/60 "2012-10-24T15:36:19Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > Actually the talk about building codes is handwaving by you. Not in the least. The building codes are what resulted in a higher number of deaths than would be expected from a 6.8 earthquake. Rather than own up to it, they chose to blame the people who presented what evidence was telling them > [@](#): > > No one is accusing the scientists of writing building codes. But one person being negligent in one area doesn’t absolve other people from liability for their own negligence in their own area. This is common in other countries as well, not just Italy. Where, exactly, were the seismologists negligent here? Where are the other world’s seismologists saying “holy FUCK! what were these INEPT IDIOTS thinking saying the risk of earthquake was no higher or lower than normal? These readings SCREAM earthquake!!!” You aren’t seeing that because what they showed was not wrong! [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/italian-seismologists-charged-with-manslaughter-for-not-foreseeing-laquila-earthquake/597085.md?page=4)