# It's 2014 and where's the future? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [February 11, 2014, 10:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045 "2014-02-11T10:05:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 8
**Author:** ![Melchior](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e5b9ba/32.png) [@Melchior](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melchior)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2014, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045/141 "2014-02-13T21:53:50Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > I remember reading a description of an automobile trip someone took around 1910-20 from Los Angeles to a town about 40-50 miles away. The trip took all day and involved multiple tire changes (flats were frequent). And you know how all those rich people in the movies had chauffeurs back in the day? They needed them, because the cars needed frequent maintenance, like lubrication every 200 miles or so. Now of course, a trip of 40-50 miles takes less than an hour and the maintenance interval for cars is in the thousands or tens of thousands of miles. > > If you think cars haven’t changed much in the last hundred years, you’re crazy. I didn’t say that they had not changed, I said the basic configuration was well established by 1930, and this was quite different from early automobiles (horseless carriages). We would feel quite at home in the Duesenberg of 1930. [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Duesenberg\_Convertible\_SJ\_LA\_Grand\_Dual-Cowl\_Phaeton\_1935.jpg](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Duesenberg_Convertible_SJ_LA_Grand_Dual-Cowl_Phaeton_1935.jpg) Not so the horseless carriage of 1895. [http://christopherwink.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/the-horseless-carriage.jpg](http://christopherwink.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/the-horseless-carriage.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![Melchior](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e5b9ba/32.png) [@Melchior](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melchior)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2014, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045/142 "2014-02-13T22:01:53Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > Except you’re one dude. Trust me, outside of a few hipsters and artistes and poseurs and true believers, nobody uses film cameras. > > Surely you’ve noticed that all the drugstores and supermarkets where you used to be able to get your film developed don’t do that anymore? And that you can only get film developed at specialty boutique businesses, or do it yourself? You haven’t noticed, because you wouldn’t have been caught dead developing your precious film with the barbarians at One Hour Photo, back when One Hour Photo was a thing? My point exactly. > > There are hundreds of horses in the rural area where I live. People ride horses, and hitch up wagons every day in my town. For fun. As a hobby. Just like you enjoy using retro-technology like film. > > So? > > And by the way, I don’t get your contention that the Duesenberg is some sort of revolutionary advance over the 1905 style vehicles. No, every step of the way was an evolutionary advance. The revolution was strapping a motor to a carriage, rather than using a draft animal. Everything since has been incremental refinements. Even things like internal combustion rather than steam engines is an incremental advance. To me, this: [http://media-cache-ec0.pinimg.com/originals/40/8b/bf/408bbf1937328a45eb4595a6105391f0.jpg](http://media-cache-ec0.pinimg.com/originals/40/8b/bf/408bbf1937328a45eb4595a6105391f0.jpg) and this: [http://christopherwink.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/the-horseless-carriage.jpg](http://christopherwink.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/the-horseless-carriage.jpg) are not all that much different. This is much closer to what we drive now: [http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6a/Duesenberg\_Convertible\_SJ\_LA\_Grand\_Dual-Cowl\_Phaeton\_1935.jpg](http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/6/6a/Duesenberg_Convertible_SJ_LA_Grand_Dual-Cowl_Phaeton_1935.jpg) ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2014, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045/143 "2014-02-13T22:17:32Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > But yes, dress styles have changed dramatically in 40 years–in certain industries. 40 years ago if you were a computer worker you came to work dressed in a suit and tie. Nowadays where I work people work in shorts and sandals, or leather straps, or jeans and hoodies, or random hipster apparel. If I showed up to work in a suit and tie, people would do a double take. Except, there actually are PMs and such who often dress up in a suit and tie for work. But that is seen as a hipster affectation-wear. The point is, people dress however they want. But the clothes are all the same - in the same way that a doughnut is the same as a coffee cup, topologically. In some ways a string bikini is identical to a Victorian bathing suit, but the differences is not in the style, but what they say about the society that produces them. Same as the clothing evolution you mention. Every so often we have a thread about what to wear during interviews, and some people propose suits no matter what. I work in Silicon Valley, and hardly anyone except students wears suits. Not even salesmen do these days. It is a nice indicator of culture. Here is another bit of future no one predicted - cable TV and the kinds of words you can say on it. Even the words that are bleeped aren’t really bleeped. We’ve come a long way from twin beds for married couples and Lucille Ball being pregnant being kind of controversial. ---
**Author:** ![Melchior](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e5b9ba/32.png) [@Melchior](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melchior)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2014, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045/144 "2014-02-13T22:23:44Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > But the clothes are all the same - in the same way that a doughnut is the same as a coffee cup, topologically. In some ways a string bikini is identical to a Victorian bathing suit, but the differences is not in the style, but what they say about the society that produces them. Same as the clothing evolution you mention. > > Every so often we have a thread about what to wear during interviews, and some people propose suits no matter what. I work in Silicon Valley, and hardly anyone except students wears suits. Not even salesmen do these days. It is a nice indicator of culture. > > Here is another bit of future no one predicted - cable TV and the kinds of words you can say on it. Even the words that are bleeped aren’t really bleeped. We’ve come a long way from twin beds for married couples and Lucille Ball being pregnant being kind of controversial. In the Midwest, partly because of the climate, we do dress a bit more conservatively. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2014, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045/145 "2014-02-13T22:27:09Z")
> [@Melchior](#): > > True, but the basic handling of the cameras is unchanged. It’s not like a horse vs a car. You used to have to feed a horse and give it rest, etc. Cars are mechanical, horses animal. > > A film camera vs a digital camera…the only difference is the nature of the light-sensitive medium. Neither is like painting. Photo sharing sites - not feasible with film. Hacking pictures easily - not feasible with film Photo modification sites - not feasible with film Nearly everyone carries a camera all the time - not feasible with film. Still camera and video camera equivalent - not possible with film or even the tape my daughter’s video camera used. Easy editing for everyone - not feasible with film. Digital photography captures images just like film photography sure - but it also enables all this other stuff. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2014, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045/146 "2014-02-13T22:29:49Z")
> [@Melchior](#): > > In the Midwest, partly because of the climate, we do dress a bit more conservatively. Bell Labs guys in Naperville didn’t dress any differently from Bell Labs guys in New Jersey. Lawyers anywhere dress a lot more conservatively than we do. But compare the billionaires of today - Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, with the billionaires of 1930. Big difference in dress. ---
**Author:** ![Melchior](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e5b9ba/32.png) [@Melchior](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melchior)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2014, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045/147 "2014-02-13T22:39:08Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > Photo sharing sites - not feasible with film. > Hacking pictures easily - not feasible with film > Photo modification sites - not feasible with film > Nearly everyone carries a camera all the time - not feasible with film. > Still camera and video camera equivalent - not possible with film or even the tape my daughter’s video camera used. > Easy editing for everyone - not feasible with film. > > Digital photography captures images just like film photography sure - but it also enables all this other stuff. I was talking about the cameras, not digital images. The cameras look almost identical. ---
**Author:** ![Melchior](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e5b9ba/32.png) [@Melchior](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melchior)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2014, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045/148 "2014-02-13T22:40:10Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > Bell Labs guys in Naperville didn’t dress any differently from Bell Labs guys in New Jersey. Lawyers anywhere dress a lot more conservatively than we do. > But compare the billionaires of today - Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, with the billionaires of 1930. Big difference in dress. That’s because they have money but no class. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2014, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045/149 "2014-02-13T22:43:55Z")
Speaking if dirty words and string bikinis, here is another unanticipated (not even by Phil Farmer) and significant invention - the birth control pill and other long term methods. Cohabitation wasn’t different between 1890 and 1930, but was becoming standard when I was in college in 1970. Benjamin and Mrs. Robinson used false names in The Graduate - who does that now? (Not that you could with credit cards.) It is a gigantic change in our culture. Plop your average Joe from 1890 or 1930 down before a TV of today and his head would explode. ---
**Author:** ![Melchior](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e5b9ba/32.png) [@Melchior](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melchior)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2014, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045/150 "2014-02-13T22:50:20Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > Speaking if dirty words and string bikinis, here is another unanticipated (not even by Phil Farmer) and significant invention - the birth control pill and other long term methods. Cohabitation wasn’t different between 1890 and 1930, but was becoming standard when I was in college in 1970. Benjamin and Mrs. Robinson used false names in The Graduate - who does that now? (Not that you could with credit cards.) > It is a gigantic change in our culture. > Plop your average Joe from 1890 or 1930 down before a TV of today and his head would explode. Indeed. Read any Trollope novel and you wonder how procreation ever happened. Men and women met each other a few times in society, and were married a few weeks later, it seems. But of course this is a cultural rather than scientific change. ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2014, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045/151 "2014-02-13T22:56:33Z")
> [@Melchior](#): > > > [@Voyager](#): > > > > Photo sharing sites - not feasible with film. > > Hacking pictures easily - not feasible with film > > Photo modification sites - not feasible with film > > Nearly everyone carries a camera all the time - not feasible with film. > > Still camera and video camera equivalent - not possible with film or even the tape my daughter’s video camera used. > > Easy editing for everyone - not feasible with film. > > > > Digital photography captures images just like film photography sure - but it also enables all this other stuff. > > I was talking about the cameras, not digital images. The cameras look almost identical. Who care that “the cameras look almost identical”? Right now, people can take a photo with a smartphone and almost immediately share it with people all over the world. Sure before, you could take a picture with your Leica, wait for it to be developed and printed, publish it in a newspaper, share the photo via the AP/UPI/AFP and then publish it around the world. But the immediacy that smartphone cameras and digital images allow is a huge shift. ---
**Author:** ![Melchior](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e5b9ba/32.png) [@Melchior](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melchior)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2014, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045/152 "2014-02-13T23:09:51Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > Who care that “the cameras look almost identical”? Right now, people can take a photo with a smartphone and almost immediately share it with people all over the world. Sure before, you could take a picture with your Leica, wait for it to be developed and printed, publish it in a newspaper, share the photo via the AP/UPI/AFP and then publish it around the world. But the immediacy that smartphone cameras and digital images allow is a huge shift. I am not denying that, but I was talking about how the basic form of the 35mm rangefinder camera was already established by Leica in 1925 (prototype in 1914!). The biggest changes were interchangeable lenses in about 1930, and a bayonet mount in 1956. The M digital camera looks hardly different from the M3 of 1956 and takes the same lenses. Again, the year 1930 seems to be a good dividing line for ‘the future’. See: [http://inventors.about.com/od/tstartinventions/a/Television\_Time.htm](http://inventors.about.com/od/tstartinventions/a/Television_Time.htm) “1930 Charles Jenkins broadcasts the first TV commercial. The BBC begins regular TV transmissions.” ---
**Author:** ![Dewey\_Finn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dewey_finn/32/4222_2.png) [@Dewey\_Finn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dewey_Finn)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2014, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045/153 "2014-02-13T23:24:44Z")
Why stop at the camera? Many hand tools haven’t changed basic form in centuries or millennia. What conclusions can we draw from that? ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [February 13, 2014, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045/154 "2014-02-13T23:28:39Z")
Why just yesterday I used a hammer with a steel head and wooden shaft that would have been right at home in a toolbox in the Roman Republic. Where’s you future now? ---
**Author:** ![Melchior](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e5b9ba/32.png) [@Melchior](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melchior)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2014, 1:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045/155 "2014-02-14T01:23:16Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > Who care that “the cameras look almost identical”? Right now, people can take a photo with a smartphone and almost immediately share it with people all over the world. Sure before, you could take a picture with your Leica, wait for it to be developed and printed, publish it in a newspaper, share the photo via the AP/UPI/AFP and then publish it around the world. But the immediacy that smartphone cameras and digital images allow is a huge shift. and function almost identically. what more do you want? ---
**Author:** ![Melchior](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e5b9ba/32.png) [@Melchior](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melchior)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2014, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045/156 "2014-02-14T02:42:16Z")
> [@Dewey\_Finn](#): > > Why stop at the camera? Many hand tools haven’t changed basic form in centuries or millennia. What conclusions can we draw from that? That not everything needs to change once it has attained a certain stage of perfection. ---
**Author:** ![Melchior](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e5b9ba/32.png) [@Melchior](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melchior)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2014, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045/157 "2014-02-14T02:47:11Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > Why just yesterday I used a hammer with a steel head and wooden shaft that would have been right at home in a toolbox in the Roman Republic. Where’s you future now? I think sometimes we are too ready to accept the notion of technological ‘progress’. It’s what I call the ‘Steve Jobs Effect’. Jobs thought that ‘cool new crap’ was what the world needs. Why is it that hardly anyone can read or write English anymore? Read the typical papers written in academic circles these days. Is anyone here familiar with the Sokal hoax? [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sokal\_affair](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sokal_affair) We don’t need more ‘cool gadgets’. We need people who can read, write, and reason. ---
**Author:** ![Melchior](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e5b9ba/32.png) [@Melchior](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Melchior)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2014, 3:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045/158 "2014-02-14T03:46:48Z")
> [@Melchior](#): > > I think sometimes we are too ready to accept the notion of technological ‘progress’. It’s what I call the ‘Steve Jobs Effect’. > > Jobs thought that ‘cool new crap’ was what the world needs. Why is it that hardly anyone can read or write English anymore? Read the typical papers written in academic circles these days. Is anyone here familiar with the Sokal hoax? > > [http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sokal\_affair](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sokal_affair) > > We don’t need more ‘cool gadgets’. We need people who can read, write, and reason. [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lj3iNxZ8Dww](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lj3iNxZ8Dww) [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cey35bBWXls](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cey35bBWXls) [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CX2Qfv5O634](http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CX2Qfv5O634) ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2014, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045/159 "2014-02-14T04:19:01Z")
What if you went back to 1930 and told people that today every new car has a device in it that knows all the roads in America and will tell you the best route to take to any place in the entire country - and show you that route on a screen on dashboard and tell you where to turn and give you the names of any restaurants that are nearby? Or if you told them they had their pick of all the music and news and sports they could possibly want beamed directly to their car by satellites orbiting in outer space? And if they wanted even more they could put it on devices smaller than a pack of cigarettes and take it with them in the car or anywhere they went? And, BTW, they could talk directly to any person with a phone in their pocket no matter where they were? Or if you told them that they didn’t have to figure out what was wrong with their cars because a mechanic could plug in a wire and the car would give all the details of where the problem was? Wouldn’t they throw their hats in the air and scream that the Future was better than they ever imagined? You bet they would. The Future is all around us. And it’s wonderful. As for your post #157. Benighted people were saying exactly the same things in 1930. They were just as wrong then as you are now. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2014, 7:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045/160 "2014-02-14T07:12:08Z")
> [@Melchior](#): > > Indeed. Read any Trollope novel and you wonder how procreation ever happened. Men and women met each other a few times in society, and were married a few weeks later, it seems. > > But of course this is a cultural rather than scientific change. Sorry, sex got invented before that. I’ve read Fanny Hill. But it is arguable, at least, that the scientific advance of birth control triggered the cultural change. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045.md?page=7) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-2014-and-wheres-the-future/681045.md?page=9)