# It's Baseball Season! **URL:** \ **Category:** The Game Room\ **Created:** [February 25, 2009, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-baseball-season/487368 "2009-02-25T15:03:00Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Southern\_Yankee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/southern_yankee/32/2800_2.png) [@Southern\_Yankee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Southern_Yankee)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2009, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-baseball-season/487368/41 "2009-02-26T14:11:01Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > Excellent analysis and I also expect the Mets to make a move before the season is out for a starter or bat in the outfield. Have they completely ruled out Manny? ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2009, 2:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-baseball-season/487368/42 "2009-02-26T14:27:36Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > I think the Angels will end up with more wins then the Jays but that will have much to do with the Angels playing their western rivals and the Jays playing the East. For that reason alone I suspect the Angels have a chance of having a better record than ANYONE in the East, as they did last year, unless Texas gets better, which they very well might. The unbalanced schedule does that. Baltimore is going to get pounded. I like Tampa Bay long term but I think people will be very surprised at how much they’re going to fall back in 2009. They’re a young team with excellent long term potential but they were lucky last year in a lot of respects; lucky in close games, lucky in terms of getting unusual performances from some guys. **Luck doesn’t hold up.** If you want a kick start on what teams will get better and what teams will get worse, just look at luck factors in 2008. If the Rays go 82-80 or something like that a lot of people will think they’ve had a terrible year, but I won’t be surprised at all and wouldn’t really think it was all that disappointing, just a typical hiccup in the rise of a good team. So I’m going to pick Tampa Bay fourth. I know, you all think I’m crazy, but they’ll have a decent year, like 85 wins, and finish fourth in baseball’s toughest division. Boston will win it, New York and Toronto will fight for the wild card, Tampa Bay will fall short, and Baltimore will lose 95+ games. My suspicion is that the best team in New York plays in Queens. I like the looks of that team. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2009, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-baseball-season/487368/43 "2009-02-26T14:35:05Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > I refer you to the termination of Joe Torre. > > My Red Sox still need some power off the bench, but other than that, this season is looking to be very good. His time was past, he had a good long run. The Boss earned his title as biggest jerk of an owner by years of much worse behavior. He was an attention whore, his jack-in-the-box firings/hirings of Billy Martin, firing Yogi Berra 15 games into the season, the fake fight with the Marshmallow salesman, the firing of Gabe Paul way back when, etc. etc. etc. Hal has fired one manager. A beloved manager, but just one. I don’t think he comes to his dad or Jerry Jones yet. > [@Southern\_Yankee](#): > > Have they completely ruled out Manny? I believe they have. The Dodger made a very good offer to Manny yesterday. $25 million for this year and a **player’s only option** for $20 million next year. Speculation is that Manny will take it. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2009, 2:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-baseball-season/487368/44 "2009-02-26T14:39:56Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > For that reason alone I suspect the Angels have a chance of having a better record than ANYONE in the East, as they did last year, unless Texas gets better, which they very well might. The unbalanced schedule does that. Baltimore is going to get pounded. > > I like Tampa Bay long term but I think people will be very surprised at how much they’re going to fall back in 2009. They’re a young team with excellent long term potential but they were lucky last year in a lot of respects; lucky in close games, lucky in terms of getting unusual performances from some guys. **Luck doesn’t hold up.** If you want a kick start on what teams will get better and what teams will get worse, just look at luck factors in 2008. If the Rays go 82-80 or something like that a lot of people will think they’ve had a terrible year, but I won’t be surprised at all and wouldn’t really think it was all that disappointing, just a typical hiccup in the rise of a good team. > > So I’m going to pick Tampa Bay fourth. I know, you all think I’m crazy, but they’ll have a decent year, like 85 wins, and finish fourth in baseball’s toughest division. Boston will win it, New York and Toronto will fight for the wild card, Tampa Bay will fall short, and Baltimore will lose 95+ games. > > My suspicion is that the best team in New York plays in Queens. I like the looks of that team. I need to see more of all 4 teams. I don’t see much offense in Toronto yet. I think Tampa’s offense may well improve. All four teams have very good pitching staffs. I stand by my statement that I think Tampa got lucky in the bullpen last year and are unlikely to repeat it unless their stud rookie starter ends up closing. The Sox are damn good with a great top 3 and strong bullpen. The Yanks have the best 1-5 starters but it has some question marks so maybe the Jays are the best 1-5. All four teams have really good staffs. The Yanks, Sox and Rays have strong offenses. I think the Jays will not be fighting for a Wild Card in September. ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2009, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-baseball-season/487368/45 "2009-02-26T15:00:29Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > For that reason alone I suspect the Angels have a chance of having a better record than ANYONE in the East, as they did last year, unless Texas gets better, which they very well might. The unbalanced schedule does that. Baltimore is going to get pounded. I don’t actually think the Angels are that much better than Baltimore for that matter. Being in that division is going to skew things, but for the first time in a decade Oriole fans have something to be excited about. They have a strong core of young hitters, and some quality veteran filler. They will be a great defense team and a better than average offensive one. Wieters has a good chance of being an instant star, Pecota has him being the best catcher in the majors, by a fair bit, as soon as he reaches the majors. Their pitching isn’t there yet, but they have a lot of quality arms in the minors. I much rather have Baltimore’s future than Toronto’s. The Angels have a subpar lineup with a pretty good pitching staff. I think they are an 83 win team, but the division should give them some bonus, though I’d surprised if they hit 90 again. Any of the other 3 teams can compete if their young pitching comes together. > [@](#): > > I like Tampa Bay long term but I think people will be very surprised at how much they’re going to fall back in 2009. They’re a young team with excellent long term potential but they were lucky last year in a lot of respects; lucky in close games, lucky in terms of getting unusual performances from some guys. **Luck doesn’t hold up.** If you want a kick start on what teams will get better and what teams will get worse, just look at luck factors in 2008. If the Rays go 82-80 or something like that a lot of people will think they’ve had a terrible year, but I won’t be surprised at all and wouldn’t really think it was all that disappointing, just a typical hiccup in the rise of a good team. I understand your rationale. I believe if Tampa was exactly as talented as they were last year, they likely would win less games. I just think they are more talented. Crawford had the worst year of his career, he should be better. Upton’s power disappeared until the playoffs, it should come back. Burrell is better than the collection of DHs they had, and Joyce upgrades the right field platoon. Longoria won’t spend April in the minors. Price will be an upgrade on E Jackson. Kazmir had a subpar for him, he could very well be better. Much better if he ever figures out some control/ Who is going to be worse? Navarro had a career year, but he was 25, and catchers tend to develop late. Iwamura might not hold up well, but then they can go to Aybar or Adam Kennedy. Sonnanstine could lapse, but you can replace him with Wade Davis or any other number of young arms. They have very few question marks compared to the Yanks and Red Sox. My picks Rays Yanks Red Sox Blue Jays Orioles but I might swap 2 and 3 or 4 and 5. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2009, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-baseball-season/487368/46 "2009-02-26T17:06:34Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > His time was past, he had a good long run. The …Hal has fired one manager. I was referring to the way he did it, which was far more cowardly and gratuitously insulting than any time his dad or any other owner has done it to any other manager AFAIK. Hal’s other public statements about his team have, so far, been just as childish as any his dad made in the Bronx Zoo period. I think there’s enough evidence already to form a pretty reliable opinion. > [@](#): > > Speculation is that Manny will take it. Speculation about Manny is worthless. I doubt the offer is real, though - why would LA be bidding against himself? Nobody else is interested, not even the Giants anymore. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2009, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-baseball-season/487368/47 "2009-02-26T17:38:06Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > I was referring to the way he did it, which was far more cowardly and gratuitously insulting than any time his dad or any other owner has done it to any other manager AFAIK. Hal’s other public statements about his team have, so far, been just as childish as any his dad made in the Bronx Zoo period. I think there’s enough evidence already to form a pretty reliable opinion. > Speculation about Manny is worthless. I doubt the offer is real, though - why would LA be bidding against himself? Nobody else is interested, not even the Giants anymore. I think you might be confusing Hank and Hal. Hal has been fairly quiet. Hank was the noisy buffoonish one last year. I’m not sure who is to blame for the way Torre was handled. The only thing I am sure of is that it was not George that made this mistake. It seemed to be both sons. As to Manny, this was suggested by Boras and the Dodgers want and need a happy productive Manny as so I think this will soon be done. BTW: The Torre thing might seem bad, but honestly the firing of Yogi was handled worse and I was there the day the George first announced that Martin would be rehired to Manage the team. This means during Old-Timers day he informed the public that Bob Lemon would be out of a job and the fans cheered it like there was nothing better. Martin got a hand that day as big as Joe D. So Hal, if it was Hal, has a long way to go to earn the title of “Boss”. I hope he proves to be a quieter more Mara like owner. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2009, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-baseball-season/487368/48 "2009-02-26T17:38:48Z")
> [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > Wieters has a good chance of being an instant star, Pecota has him being the best catcher in the majors, by a fair bit, as soon as he reaches the majors. PECOTA predicts Wieters will be, _by far,_ the best catcher in the major leagues immediately upon arrival? Better, by far, than Joe Mauer? Well, sorry, but PECOTA’s broken, then. I just don’t believe that at all, and I’d bet money on it. Wieters is a hell of a young player, one of the very best, but that’s a nuttily high projection; I think they’re vastly overstating the importance of his big year last year split between high A and AA. Baltimore may be better in 2010 forward, but they aren’t going to be good in 2009. They’ve been a bad team for some time now and a lot of things have to be fixed. The pitching staff as it stands is just brutal; the only starting pitcher who was any good in 2008 is 30 years old now. The only young players with substantial playing time in the lineup in 2008 were Markakis and Jones. It’s going to take time to sort out which young arms can actually pitch - and it’s becoming apparent Daniel Cabrera isn’t one of them - and to fit more young talent into the lineup. Not that it hasn’t happened in one year before (Tampa Bay Rays, 2008) but I’d give them a few years at least. ---
**Author:** ![storyteller0910](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecae2f/32.png) [@storyteller0910](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/storyteller0910)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2009, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-baseball-season/487368/49 "2009-02-26T17:45:40Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > PECOTA predicts Wieters will be, _by far,_ the best catcher in the major leagues immediately upon arrival? Better, by far, than Joe Mauer? > > Well, sorry, but PECOTA’s broken, then. I just don’t believe that at all, and I’d bet money on it. Wieters is a hell of a young player, one of the very best, but that’s a nuttily high projection; I think they’re vastly overstating the importance of his big year last year split between high A and AA. Yeah, I think PECOTA called for a .310+ BA, .540+ SLG, 31 HR, 102 RBI season out of Wieters, which seems… oddly optimistic, let’s say. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2009, 5:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-baseball-season/487368/50 "2009-02-26T17:53:53Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > I think you might be confusing Hank and Hal. Hal has been fairly quiet. Hank was the noisy buffoonish one last year. Right, sorry. > [@](#): > > I’m not sure who is to blame for the way Torre was handled. I have to go with the noisy buffoonish one on that. > [@](#): > > As to Manny, this was suggested by Boras and the Dodgers want and need a happy productive Manny as so I think this will soon be done. Just as long he’s on the other side of the continent, in the other league, and I can stop hearing about him, that’ll be fine. > [@](#): > > the firing of Yogi was handled worse That was cowardly too, but at least it was an actual firing. Hank/Hal felt the need to humiliate Torre first. > [@](#): > > I was there the day the George first announced that Martin would be rehired to Manage the team "Oh, my goodness gracious! Of all the dramatic things in Yankees history …’ 😃 > [@](#): > > This means during Old-Timers day he informed the public that Bob Lemon would be out of a job and the fans cheered it like there was nothing better. Okay, that was probably worse than Buddy LeRoux announcing his attempted coup against the Yawkey estate ownership during “Tony C Night”, held to raise money for the Conigliaro family’s medical expenses. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2009, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-baseball-season/487368/51 "2009-02-26T17:56:05Z")
> [@storyteller0910](#): > > Yeah, I think PECOTA called for a .310+ BA, .540+ SLG, 31 HR, 102 RBI season out of Wieters, which seems… oddly optimistic, let’s say. I don’t have my copy of BP yet this year. Is this the 90% forecast, or the realistic one? ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2009, 5:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-baseball-season/487368/52 "2009-02-26T17:57:46Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > PECOTA predicts Wieters will be, _by far,_ the best catcher in the major leagues immediately upon arrival? Better, by far, than Joe Mauer? Yup. The forecast is otherwordly. Piazza with plus defense behind the plate. > [@](#): > > Well, sorry, but PECOTA’s broken, then. I just don’t believe that at all, and I’d bet money on it. Wieters is a hell of a young player, one of the very best, but that’s a nuttily high projection; I think they’re vastly overstating the importance of his big year last year split between high A and AA. The translated numbers were historic. I don’t have the book in front of me, but they said something along the lines of "Take anything we said about any guy about any season, this guy had a better year. As for it being broken, people, including BP writers, thought the Rays winning 90 games was crazy too. > [@](#): > > Baltimore may be better in 2010 forward, but they aren’t going to be good in 2009. They’ve been a bad team for some time now and a lot of things have to be fixed. The pitching staff as it stands is just brutal; the only starting pitcher who was any good in 2008 is 30 years old now. The only young players with substantial playing time in the lineup in 2008 were Markakis and Jones. It’s going to take time to sort out which young arms can actually pitch - and it’s becoming apparent Daniel Cabrera isn’t one of them - and to fit more young talent into the lineup. Not that it hasn’t happened in one year before (Tampa Bay Rays, 2008) but I’d give them a few years at least. I don’t think are likely to be a contender, but they aren’t a 95 loss team even in that division. I suspect they will be someone where around 500. A good offense, a great defense, and a brutal pitching staff. Roberts, Jones, Markakis, Wieter is a fantastic core. By the way Cabrera is now a Nat (Another team that is better than people give them credit for) ---
**Author:** ![Hawkeyeop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/958977/32.png) [@Hawkeyeop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hawkeyeop)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2009, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-baseball-season/487368/53 "2009-02-26T18:02:21Z")
> [@Munch](#): > > I don’t have my copy of BP yet this year. Is this the 90% forecast, or the realistic one? Nah that is the 50 50: 308/391/535 (28 HR) 90 344/437/633 (39 HR) ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [February 26, 2009, 11:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-baseball-season/487368/54 "2009-02-26T23:47:27Z")
> [@Southern\_Yankee](#): > > Didn’t Marge Schott own the Reds? :dubious: Yeah, but she was just an old-school racist. And…I was kidding previously. I don’t much like the Yankees, but…yeah. Selah. ---
**Author:** ![Wilson](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/96bed5/32.png) [@Wilson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wilson)\ **Post date:** [February 27, 2009, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-baseball-season/487368/55 "2009-02-27T00:13:52Z")
> [@Hawkeyeop](#): > > Nah that is the 50 > > 50: 308/391/535 (28 HR) > > 90 344/437/633 (39 HR) That’s one heck of a projection. A .926 OPS for a rookie catcher? Wow. Just checked ZiPS (baseball think factory) - he has him projected at .291/.361/.467, a .828 OPS. That’s quite the difference. Interesting to see which is closer at the end of the year. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-baseball-season/487368.md?page=2)