# "It's cold, so there's no global warming." Do they KNOW that's false? **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [January 13, 2011, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421 "2011-01-13T03:27:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![Nadir](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nadir/32/7302_2.png) [@Nadir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nadir)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2011, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/241 "2011-01-20T21:20:03Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > I think we can all be fairly certain that you know nothing about this subject that **Sam** doesn’t (though you might well **believe** a great deal more than you know). What I don’t know would fill volumes. I recognize that. One of those many things is if elevated CO2 levels in whatever degree they may be anthropogenically related, is a bad thing. How certain of that are you, Mr. Glutton? Has your brain in all it’s gluttony, injested enough information to make that determination? Or is excreting facetious judgments of other’s knowledge levels your specialty? Does this phenomenon tragically portend the ruinous end to our planet as we know it? Just another another phase in an ongoing balancing act constantly evolving since the beginning of time? Something else? Insignificant? Humans impact on the planet must be “bad” as evidenced by CO2 and temperature studies? 😕 ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2011, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/242 "2011-01-20T21:58:50Z")
> [@Nadir](#): > > What I don’t know would fill volumes. I recognize that. One of those many things is if elevated CO2 levels in whatever degree they may be anthropogenically related, is a bad thing. How certain of that are you, Mr. Glutton? Has your brain in all it’s gluttony, injested enough information to make that determination? Or is excreting facetious judgments of other’s knowledge levels your specialty? > > Does this phenomenon tragically portend the ruinous end to our planet as we know it? Just another another phase in an ongoing balancing act constantly evolving since the beginning of time? Something else? Insignificant? > > Humans impact on the planet must be “bad” as evidenced by CO2 and temperature studies? 😕 What it must be is **unprecedented** – climate change **at this speed** just has not happened in Earth’s history before unless a comet or something was involved. That alone should raise red flags. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2011, 10:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/243 "2011-01-20T22:01:26Z")
> [@Nadir](#): > > One of those many things is if elevated CO2 levels in whatever degree they may be anthropogenically related, is a bad thing. […] > > Does this phenomenon tragically portend the ruinous end to our planet as we know it? Just another another phase in an ongoing balancing act constantly evolving since the beginning of time? Something else? Insignificant? > > Humans impact on the planet must be “bad” as evidenced by CO2 and temperature studies? Some of those questions are easy to answer, others not. I’ll take a stab at giving you the answers as I understand them (and note that IANA climate science researcher of any kind, just an interested observer with some math and science training at the graduate level. And while I’m offering disclaimers, please note that in writing my previous post I misread “380 ppm” as “330 ppm”; sorry about that. 380 is the more accurate number). _“Does this phenomenon tragically portend the ruinous end to our planet as we know it?”_ To the **planet itself** , absolutely not. AFAIK, there’s absolutely nothing about anthropogenic greenhouse gas increases that involves even the most minimal risk of actually destroying the Earth as a physical object. The Earth as a physical object is good for billions of years more, no matter how much of its sequestered carbon members of our species pump into its atmosphere. To the “planet as we know it”? Well, that depends on what you mean by “as we know it”. If you mean “the climatic characteristics of our planet that have helped shape our complex human civilizations during the past 10000+ years of the Holocene interglacial period”, then AGW might significantly affect those characteristics, depending on how far it goes and how vulnerable the various climate characteristics prove to CO2 increase. _“Just another another phase in an ongoing balancing act constantly evolving since the beginning of time?”_ On the scale of millions of years of geologic time, sure, an anthropogenic increase in atmospheric CO2 even as large as 50% or so is certainly not the most drastic thing that ever happened to global climate, so in that sense AGW would count as “just another phase”. In terms of human experience, though, especially historical human experience, a phenomenon like AGW is pretty much unprecedented. AFAIK, neither we nor any other species nor any climate process during the current interglacial period has even come close to altering the nature of our global atmosphere as much as we’re doing now. The current CO2 increase is definitely not part of the Holocene climate’s “ongoing balancing act”. (That doesn’t necessarily mean that it’s **guaranteed** to make our climate catastrophically unbalanced, just that it’s very different from the “evolving” of our climate as we are familiar with it in our post-Ice Age experience.) _“Humans impact on the planet must be “bad” as evidenced by CO2 and temperature studies?”_ “Bad” for what or whom? Certainly not bad for the actual physical existence of the Earth as a rocky planet in our solar system, as I said above; from that perspective, the presence, absence, or climatic environment of the human species is completely irrelevant. Bad for the maintenance of the standard Holocene atmospheric composition? Absolutely: as I said above, anthropogenic emissions have already disrupted the chemical mix of the atmosphere beyond anything modern humans have ever known. Is that going to be bad for our familiar climate patterns and our economies? Looks that way, but we have a lot to learn yet about the details and the severity of the impacts. ---
**Author:** ![Nadir](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nadir/32/7302_2.png) [@Nadir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nadir)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2011, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/244 "2011-01-20T22:15:03Z")
So the real implications lie somewhere between rock in the solar system and planet as we know it? ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2011, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/245 "2011-01-20T22:39:36Z")
> [@Nadir](#): > > So the real implications lie somewhere between rock in the solar system and planet as we know it? Real implications **for what?** If you want a specific answer about the projected impacts of anthropogenic global warming, you’re going to have to ask a specific question. Are you interested in long-term geological effects over millions of years? Possibility of AGW-induced orbital perturbations? Effect on next week’s weather? Probability of encountering insect-borne tropical diseases in temperate zones within the next decade? Effects on agriculture in monsoon regions over the next century? Projected sea level rise in 300 years? Global climate is a hugely complex system and interacts with living species and other parts of the planet in a whole lot of complicated ways. You can’t just naively ask “will it be a bad thing if human CO2 emissions change the climate” and expect to get an answer that is simultaneously short, comprehensible and accurate. So, could you try thinking about what specific information about projected impacts of climate change you want to know, and re-phrase your question to reflect that? ---
**Author:** ![Nadir](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/nadir/32/7302_2.png) [@Nadir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nadir)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2011, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/246 "2011-01-20T22:55:15Z")
With the exception of next week’s weather, those were all good questions whose truthful answers would go a long ways towards determining a point on the continuum between rock in space and planet as we know it, at which rational discussion of the topic might take place. None of the rest of them inspired any particular hysteria in me, personally. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2011, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/247 "2011-01-20T23:00:09Z")
> [@Nadir](#): > > None of the rest of them inspired any particular hysteria in me, personally. Nor should they inspire hysteria. Some rational concern, perhaps. Some awareness that the effects of global climate change will occur, and many will be quite damaging indeed. ---
**Author:** ![Aji\_de\_Gallina](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aji_de_gallina/32/260_2.png) [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aji_de_Gallina)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2011, 11:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/248 "2011-01-20T23:00:42Z")
Having just received my cheque form Exxon I will now present my points. By the way, I have no doubt that the average tempreature of the earth is greater than 100 years ago. 1. I disagree with “AGW therefore whatever seems nice”, mainly because it means more hunger and poverty than it is supposed to solve. As planet-wide problems go, AGW is incredibly much smaller and less importat than to access to clean water. 2. The central case is based on ignorance, in that what its proponents say is that “we don’t know what could cause the warming trends except CO2”. Surprisingly, a very similar trend happened early in the 20th century. 3. The importance of CO2 in regulating temperature simply doesn’t work backwards. If you try to get to 4°C by 2100 you need a sensitivity that would not “predict” recent past temperatures. 4. The error bars are gigantic compared to what is measured. 5. The ammount of fidgeting wih the raw data is astonishing. Of course all raw data needs adjustments, but almost all of the recent temperature increase (at least the numbers) seems to come from the adjustments. I’m not implying foul play, but simply that it is interesting. 6. It is assumed that warmer means bad. ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2011, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/249 "2011-01-20T23:07:19Z")
> [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > Having just received my cheque form Exxon I will now present my points. > By the way, I have no doubt that the average tempreature of the earth is greater than 100 years ago. > > 1. I disagree with “AGW therefore whatever seems nice”, mainly because it means more hunger and poverty than it is supposed to solve. As planet-wide problems go, AGW is incredibly much smaller and less importat than to access to clean water. > > 2. The central case is based on ignorance, in that what its proponents say is that “we don’t know what could cause the warming trends except CO2”. Surprisingly, a very similar trend happened early in the 20th century. > > 3. The importance of CO2 in regulating temperature simply doesn’t work backwards. If you try to get to 4°C by 2100 you need a sensitivity that would not “predict” recent past temperatures. > > 4. The error bars are gigantic compared to what is measured. > > 5. The ammount of fidgeting wih the raw data is astonishing. Of course all raw data needs adjustments, but almost all of the recent temperature increase (at least the numbers) seems to come from the adjustments. I’m not implying foul play, but simply that it is interesting. > > 6. It is assumed that warmer means bad. The rest of your points are uninformed drivel, so I’d like to focus on point six. Why exactly do you think a warmer world would be better? Do you live in Alaska? Why in particular do you think rising oceans are good? ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2011, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/250 "2011-01-20T23:17:15Z")
> [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > Having just received my cheque form Exxon I will now present my points. > By the way, I have no doubt that the average tempreature of the earth is greater than 100 years ago. > > 1. I disagree with “AGW therefore whatever seems nice”, mainly because it means more hunger and poverty than it is supposed to solve. As planet-wide problems go, AGW is incredibly much smaller and less importat than to access to clean water. :rolleyes: When glaciers recede and droughts are expected that means less access to clean water. > **[Positives and negatives of global warming](https://skepticalscience.com/global-warming-positives-negatives.htm)** > > \The negative impacts of global warming on agriculture, health, economy and environment far outweigh any positives.\ > [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > 1. The central case is based on ignorance, in that what its proponents say is that “we don’t know what could cause the warming trends except CO2”. Surprisingly, a very similar trend happened early in the 20th century. So you do know already how to debunk or why we should ignore the [10 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change](http://www.skepticalscience.com/10-Indicators-of-a-Human-Fingerprint-on-Climate-Change.html)? Or do you always like to pretend that it is not your ignorance that it is showing? > [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > 1. The importance of CO2 in regulating temperature simply doesn’t work backwards. If you try to get to 4°C by 2100 you need a sensitivity that would not “predict” recent past temperatures. > **[How sensitive is our climate?](https://skepticalscience.com/climate-sensitivity.htm)** > > \Climate sensitivity can be calculated empirically by comparing past temperature change to natural forcings at the time. Various periods of Earth's past have been examined in this manner and find broad agreement of a climate sensitivity of around... > [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > 1. The error bars are gigantic compared to what is measured. What error bars? The ones in the reconstructions of past temperature or current ones? > [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > 1. The ammount of fidgeting wih the raw data is astonishing. Of course all raw data needs adjustments, but almost all of the recent temperature increase (at least the numbers) seems to come from the adjustments. I’m not implying foul play, but simply that it is interesting. > **[Did CRU tamper with temperature data?](https://skepticalscience.com/CRU-tampered-temperature-data.htm)** > > The Independent Climate Change Email Review went back to primary data sources and were able to replicate CRU's results. This means not only was CRU not hiding anything, but it had nothing to hide. Though CRU neglected to provide an exact list of... > [@](#): > > The Independent Climate Change Email Review went back to primary data sources and were able to replicate CRU’s results. This means not only was CRU not hiding anything, but it had nothing to hide. Though CRU neglected to provide an exact list of temperature stations, it could not have hid or tampered with data. > [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > 1. It is assumed that warmer means bad. See the reply to the first one, while there could be beneficial effects, so far what I have seen from serious researchers is that taken all together the bad effects will overtake the good. And I have to assume once again that you are going over the silly ignorance level to the willful ignorance one. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [January 20, 2011, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/251 "2011-01-20T23:54:06Z")
> [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > Having just received my cheque form Exxon I will now present my points. No offense, but I think they’re overpaying you. Seriously, most of the points you raise here are not particularly impressive arguments. Oh well, one by one: [QUOTE=Ají de Gallina] By the way, I have no doubt that the average tempreature of the earth is greater than 100 years ago. [/quote] So far so good, then. [QUOTE=Ají de Gallina] 1. I disagree with “AGW therefore whatever seems nice”, mainly because it means more hunger and poverty than it is supposed to solve. As planet-wide problems go, AGW is incredibly much smaller and less importat than to access to clean water. [/quote] A. You’re right that “AGW therefore My Own Pet Policy Preferences” is not a valid line of reasoning. That’s true for any other environmental/social/political problem as well as AGW. B. Arguments that AGW-amelioration policies are automatically going to be more damaging to humans than the effects of AGW itself are very suspect, especially when phrased so generally. Yeah, we shouldn’t immediately abandon all modern economic activity for the sake of reducing our carbon footprint, but neither should we be too credulous about anti-AGW fearmongering claiming, e.g., that **any** emissions reductions policies are tantamount to abandoning all modern economic activity. C. AGW is not a separate issue from other environmental or economic challenges, including access to clean water. Changes in glacier melt, sea level rise, and regional climate patterns are directly linked to water accessibility. [QUOTE=Ají de Gallina] 1. The central case is based on ignorance, in that what its proponents say is that “we don’t know what could cause the warming trends except CO2”. Surprisingly, a very similar trend happened early in the 20th century. [/quote] No, the central case is **not** based on “we don’t know what could cause the warming trends except CO2”. It’s based on the **combination** of the following facts: a) we understand **how** increasing CO2 physically causes warming, b) we understand the long-term correlation between CO2 levels and temperature in past eras, c) we know that CO2 levels have been drastically increasing due to human activity, d) **and also** we have found no other physical mechanism to account for the observed warming besides anthropogenic CO2 increases. That’s not an argument based on ignorance, any more than it’s basing the theory of gravitation on ignorance to acknowledge that we haven’t found any physical mechanism besides gravity that can explain our observations of falling objects and orbiting bodies. [QUOTE=Ají de Gallina] 1. The importance of CO2 in regulating temperature simply doesn’t work backwards. If you try to get to 4°C by 2100 you need a sensitivity that would not “predict” recent past temperatures. [/quote] I’m not quite sure what you’re saying here, and I’m not quite sure that you understand what you’re saying either. As both **GIGObuster** and **Sam Stone** have pointed out, current AGW climate models predict recent past temperatures quite well. Starting with the basics: Climate sensitivity is usually defined as the change in average global temperature (in degrees centigrade) resulting from a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report estimates climate sensitivity at somewhere between 2 to 4.5 degrees C, most probably around 3 degrees. The IPCC currently predicts the increase in global mean temperature to fall somewhere between about 1.5 and 6 degrees C by 2100. [QUOTE=Ají de Gallina] 1. The error bars are gigantic compared to what is measured. [/quote] What specific measurements are you talking about? [QUOTE=Ají de Gallina] 1. The ammount of fidgeting wih the raw data is astonishing. Of course all raw data needs adjustments, but almost all of the recent temperature increase (at least the numbers) seems to come from the adjustments. I’m not implying foul play, but simply that it is interesting. [/quote] What specific data are you talking about? [QUOTE=Ají de Gallina] 1. It is assumed that warmer means bad. [/QUOTE] No, it’s deduced from the specific changes to global climate associated with a significantly warmer atmosphere that significant warming will have some bad consequences. There will definitely be some positive changes as a result of rising global temperature as well, but they are predicted to be less significant and more local. The warnings about negative consequences of AGW are based on predictions of specific bad things based on specific climate models, not on some unfounded “assumption” that warming in general is automatically bad. ---
**Author:** ![Aji\_de\_Gallina](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aji_de_gallina/32/260_2.png) [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aji_de_Gallina)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2011, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/252 "2011-01-21T00:47:03Z")
> [@Lobohan](#): > > The rest of your points are uninformed drivel, so I’d like to focus on point six. > > Why exactly do you think a warmer world would be better? Do you live in Alaska? Why in particular do you think rising oceans are good? All your points are uniformed drivel. See how it works? > [@GIGObuster](#): > > :rolleyes: > > When glaciers recede and droughts are expected that means less access to clean water. > [Positives and negatives of global warming](http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-positives-negatives.htm) > > So you do know already how to debunk or why we should ignore the [10 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change](http://www.skepticalscience.com/10-Indicators-of-a-Human-Fingerprint-on-Climate-Change.html)? Or do you always like to pretend that it is not your ignorance that it is showing? > [How sensitive is our climate?](http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-sensitivity.htm) > What error bars? The ones in the reconstructions of past temperature or current ones? > [Did CRU tamper with temperature data?](http://www.skepticalscience.com/CRU-tampered-temperature-data.htm) > > See the reply to the first one, while there could be beneficial effects, so far what I have seen from serious researchers is that taken all together the bad effects will overtake the good. > > And I have to assume once again that you are going over the silly ignorance level to the willful ignorance one. > [@Lobohan](#): > > The rest of your points are uninformed drivel, so I’d like to focus on point six. > > Why exactly do you think a warmer world would be better? Do you live in Alaska? Why in particular do you think rising oceans are good? Your point is uniformed drivel. > [@GIGObuster](#): > > :rolleyes: > > When glaciers recede and droughts are expected that means less access to clean water. > [Positives and negatives of global warming](http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-positives-negatives.htm) > > So you do know already how to debunk or why we should ignore the [10 Indicators of a Human Fingerprint on Climate Change](http://www.skepticalscience.com/10-Indicators-of-a-Human-Fingerprint-on-Climate-Change.html)? Or do you always like to pretend that it is not your ignorance that it is showing? > > [How sensitive is our climate?](http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-sensitivity.htm) > What error bars? The ones in the reconstructions of past temperature or current ones? > [Did CRU tamper with temperature data?](http://www.skepticalscience.com/CRU-tampered-temperature-data.htm) > > See the reply to the first one, while there could be beneficial effects, so far what I have seen from serious researchers is that taken all together the bad effects will overtake the good. > > And I have to assume once again that you are going over the silly ignorance level to the willful ignorance one. Do you get paid by the link to skepticalsicence or those really scientific youtube pages? 1. When are these droughts expected? After the rains in Brazil and Australia I imagine. Yeah, yeah, “short term!” you’re gonna scream. Any good long-term drought info you got? 2. Let’s go to your 10 factors. It’s simply converting “There’s more CO2 and it causes warming” to 10 points. 3. Really? 1.5 to 7°? Are those guys so uncertain? Agricultural poruduction has exploded at the time the earth has warmed the most. No causation implied or suggested. I simply discard even the posibility of the phrase “stabilizing CO2 levels” wthout meaning “we’re gonna let millions die”. 4. On models. And AGW is cemented on models. Is there a model the mimics the temperatures in the last 40 years that would work without any modification for the previous 100? 5. I didn’t mention CRU and specifically said that no foul-play was implied. It is simply that EVEN IF THE ADJUSTMENTS THE RIGHT THING TO DO inmost scientific studies like this it is of note that most of the NUMERICAL warming come not from the raw data but from the adjustments. 6. By “various researchers” you mean “those links on [skepticalscience.com](http://skepticalscience.com)” don’t you? > [@Kimstu](#): > > No offense, but I think they’re overpaying you. Seriously, most of the points you raise here are not particularly impressive arguments. Oh well, one by one: > So far so good, then. > A. You’re right that “AGW therefore My Own Pet Policy Preferences” is not a valid line of reasoning. That’s true for any other environmental/social/political problem as well as AGW. Agreed > [@](#): > > B. Arguments that AGW-amelioration policies are automatically going to be more damaging to humans than the effects of AGW itself are very suspect, especially when phrased so generally. Yeah, we shouldn’t immediately abandon all modern economic activity for the sake of reducing our carbon footprint, but neither should we be too credulous about anti-AGW fearmongering claiming, e.g., that **any** emissions reductions policies are tantamount to abandoning all modern economic activity. Agree on the principle that reducing our carbon footprint is good and there are ways to do it without killing people. > [@](#): > > C. AGW is not a separate issue from other environmental or economic challenges, including access to clean water. Changes in glacier melt, sea level rise, and regional climate patterns are directly linked to water accessibility. Basically agreed but access to clean-water is today not linked to GW (mostly) but to corruption and chronic poverty. Of course, is temperatures increase a lot there will be places where acess will be more difficult. However, at present, directly spending money and afforts of access to clean water is much much more important than AGW (of course you can fight both). > [@](#): > > No, the central case is **not** based on “we don’t know what could cause the warming trends except CO2”. It’s based on the **combination** of the following facts: > a) we understand **how** increasing CO2 physically causes warming, > b) we understand the long-term correlation between CO2 levels and temperature in past eras, > c) we know that CO2 levels have been drastically increasing due to human activity, > d) **and also** we have found no other physical mechanism to account for the observed warming besides anthropogenic CO2 increases. > > That’s not an argument based on ignorance, any more than it’s basing the theory of gravitation on ignorance to acknowledge that we haven’t found any physical mechanism besides gravity that can explain our observations of falling objects and orbiting bodies. But in the end it’s “d”. > [@](#): > > I’m not quite sure what you’re saying here, and I’m not quite sure that you understand what you’re saying either. As both **GIGObuster** and **Sam Stone** have pointed out, current AGW climate models predict recent past temperatures quite well. > > Starting with the basics: Climate sensitivity is usually defined as the change in average global temperature (in degrees centigrade) resulting from a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report estimates climate sensitivity at somewhere between 2 to 4.5 degrees C, most probably around 3 degrees. > > The IPCC currently predicts the increase in global mean temperature to fall somewhere between about 1.5 and 6 degrees C by 2100. Sorry, 1.5 to 6 is too much uncertainty. Each doubling is less important than the previous ones. > [@](#): > > What specific measurements are you talking about? What specific data are you talking about? One example [Actual measurements.](http://briefingroom.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c51bc53ef012875dc00a7970c-pi) [Adjusted data.](http://briefingroom.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c51bc53ef012875dc003a970c-pi) stuff like that. > [@](#): > > No, it’s deduced from the specific changes to global climate associated with a significantly warmer atmosphere that significant warming will have some bad consequences. There will definitely be some positive changes as a result of rising global temperature as well, but they are predicted to be less significant and more local. The warnings about negative consequences of AGW are based on predictions of specific bad things based on specific climate models, not on some unfounded “assumption” that warming in general is automatically bad. [/QUOTE] I’m always wary of predicting human activity over several decades. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2011, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/253 "2011-01-21T01:16:21Z")
> [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > Do you get paid by the link to skepticalsicence or those really scientific youtube pages? The links point to the scientific papers you willful ignorant (and this is now a demonstrated certainty from your part, not a theory) Skeptical Science was just a place where the replies to many of the repeated to dead explanations where put together, the creator did so well that now scientists are contributing directly to the replies; in any case, others, not you, can check for the published scientific papers to read the evidence. So, we just got more drivel from you, but lets check the most idiotic ones. > [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > 1. Really? 1.5 to 7°? Are those guys so uncertain? Agricultural poruduction has exploded at the time the earth has warmed the most. No causation implied or suggested. I simply discard even the posibility of the phrase “stabilizing CO2 levels” wthout meaning “we’re gonna let millions die”. It is clear that you live in a cave as you missed the crop failures in Russia (heath wave) and the damage caused by flodding to food production in Pakistan and now Australia. And no, the point here is not that the natural disasters are made worse by AGW, the point is that agricultural production has suffered a recent big blow and ignored by you. (Fortunately other regions can keep up, so for the time being the levels of production are not a problem, but there is concern.) > [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > 1. On models. And AGW is cemented on models. Is there a model the mimics the temperatures in the last 40 years that would work without any modification for the previous 100? I could say that it is not that that you are bitching and moaning about skepticalscience, the reality is that you are bitching about the science. > **[How reliable are climate models?](https://skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm)** > > \While there are uncertainties with climate models, they successfully reproduce the past and have made predictions that have been subsequently confirmed by observations.\ > [@](#): > > What the science says… > > Models successfully reproduce temperatures since 1900 globally, by land, in the air and the ocean. > > Climate models are mathematical representations of the interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land surface, ice – and the sun. This is clearly a very complex task, so models are built to estimate trends rather than events. For example, a climate model can tell you it will be cold in winter, but it can’t tell you what the temperature will be on a specific day – that’s weather forecasting. Climate trends are weather, averaged out over time - usually 30 years. Trends are important because they eliminate - or “smooth out” - single events that may be extreme, but quite rare. > > Climate models have to be tested to find out if they work. We can’t wait for 30 years to see if a model is any good or not; models are tested against the past, against what we know happened. If a model can correctly predict trends from a starting point somewhere in the past, we could expect it to predict with reasonable certainty what might happen in the future. > > So all models are first tested in a process called Hindcasting. The models used to predict future global warming can accurately map past climate changes. If they get the past right, there is no reason to think their predictions would be wrong. Testing models against the existing instrumental record suggested CO2 must cause global warming, because the models could not simulate what had already happened unless the extra CO2 was added to the model. Nothing else could account for the rise in temperatures over the last century. > [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > 1. I didn’t mention CRU and specifically said that no foul-play was implied. It is simply that EVEN IF THE ADJUSTMENTS THE RIGHT THING TO DO inmost scientific studies like this it is of note that most of the NUMERICAL warming come not from the raw data but from the adjustments. :rolleyes: You are really pathetic in demonstrating to all that you did not read the previous cite, indeed, you are a willful ignorant. > **[Did CRU tamper with temperature data?](https://skepticalscience.com/CRU-tampered-temperature-data.htm)** > > The Independent Climate Change Email Review went back to primary data sources and were able to replicate CRU's results. This means not only was CRU not hiding anything, but it had nothing to hide. Though CRU neglected to provide an exact list of... > [@](#): > > One set of allegations against CRU concern its main area of research, the instrumental temperature record CRUTEM. The CRUTEM analysis is very similar to those produced by independent groups such as NASA’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) and NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC). Nevertheless, the contrarians allege that CRU manipulated data to fabricate a global warming trend; that CRU prevented critics from accessing the raw data and other information required to check its conclusions; and that CRU director Phil Jones failed to admit having cited fraudulent data twenty years ago. Thus they claim CRUTEM cannot be trusted. > > To create the CRUTEM surface temperature analysis, CRU scientists take temperature data from 4,138 stations, and for each station they calculate the mean temperature for 1961-1990 and temperature anomalies relative to that period. They then arrange all this data into a 5x5 degree grid. This process requires that adjustments be made to account for sources of error such as changing station locations or urban heat island effect. > > Following Climategate, several amateur climate bloggers have attempted their own analyses of global temperature trends, and arrived at very similar results to CRU, GISS, and NCDC. The Review took a similar approach, going back to primary sources and obtaining raw station data to see if it was possible for critics to replicate CRU’s results. They were able to acquire as much data as necessary from both the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) and the National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). They proceeded to write the computer code needed to analyse the data in the space of two days, without requiring any information from CRU. > > Thus the Review demonstrated that CRU was not hiding anything: sufficient data was available to replicate CRU’s results, and any competent researcher would be able to analyse it. Furthermore, they had nothing to hide: both adjusted and unadjusted data yielded very similar results to CRUTEM, and CRU’s homogenisation adjustments make no significant difference to the global average. > [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > 1. By “various researchers” you mean “those links on [skepticalscience.com](http://skepticalscience.com)” don’t you? Again, I’m not the one showing what a pathetic ignorant you are in ignoring the linked cites and the referenced science papers. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2011, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/254 "2011-01-21T01:27:32Z")
[QUOTE=Ají de Gallina] Sorry, 1.5 to 6 is too much uncertainty. Each doubling is less important than the previous ones. [/QUOTE] > **[Despite uncertainty, CO2 drives the climate](https://skepticalscience.com/despite-uncertainty-CO2-drives-the-climate.html)** > > In August 2010, Nature published a commentary by Penner et al. which mainly focused on the uncertainty regarding the effect short-lived pollutants (such as aerosols and black carbon) have on the climate. As is often the case, many in the blogosphere... > [@](#): > > This statement gets to the main point of the commentary - that there remains significant uncertainty regarding the effect of these short-lived pollutants on the global climate. However, estimates of the planetary climate sensitivity to increasing atmospheric CO2 and other radiative forcings are not solely based on the change in the mean global temperature over the past 100 years. In fact, the climate sensitivity parameter has been estimated through many different methods, including: > > ``` > * climate models > * recent responses to large volcanic eruptions > * recent responses to solar cycles > * paleoclimate data > * data from the last Glacial Maximum > * and yes, data from the instrumental period > > ``` > > All of these \*\*different \*\*methods show strong agreement, overlapping in the IPCC climate sensitivity range of 2 to 4.5°C for a doubling of atmospheric CO2 (2xCO2). > [@](#): > > Although it is important to reduce the remaining climate uncertainties, such as the magnitude of the impacts of short-lived pollutants, it does not change the fact that CO2 is very likely the driving force behind the current global warming, or that if we double the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere from pre-industrial levels, the planet will likely warm in the range of 2 to 4.5°C. It has to be noticed that some of the few remaining skeptical scientists go for the low ranges, but **as uncertainty goes both ways** , most of those skeptics are losing respect among their peers. [http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/40652.html](http://www.abc.net.au/unleashed/40652.html) > [@](#): > > The IPCC’s conservatism is not confined to people’s perceptions but extends to the physical climate as well. The planet’s climate is changing more rapidly than anticipated by the IPCC: According to a recent peer-reviewed analysis by Professors Freudenburgs and Muselli of the University of California, nearly 90 per cent of all reports about new scientific findings since the IPCC’s 2007 assessment reveal global climate disruption to be worse, and progressing more rapidly, than expected. > > This, then, is the crux of the matter that is too often overlooked or ignored: Uncertainty cuts both ways. Uncertainty means things could be worse, or indeed far worse, than the generally conservative assessment of the state of the climate provided by the IPCC and other bodies, such as the recent document published by the UK’s Royal Society. > > Uncertainty doesn’t mean we needn’t worry - because uncertainty also means that things could be worse than anticipated. > > Anyone who argues that we need not act on climate change because of uncertainty is really inviting you come along for a ride into a brick wall at 80 km/h because it might hurt only a little. > > Are you feeling lucky? ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2011, 1:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/255 "2011-01-21T01:43:37Z")
> [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](#): > > One example > [Actual measurements.](http://briefingroom.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c51bc53ef012875dc00a7970c-pi) > [Adjusted data.](http://briefingroom.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c51bc53ef012875dc003a970c-pi) > stuff like that. The briefingroom.typepad is a denier site for starters, so we need to see the context of the graphs (This BTW was done before by you, posting images of graphs with no context so others could not see where the graphs came from and the context) In the past, a lot of effort was made to discredit the adjustments, but as usual, it goes both ways also, I do remember reading that after a lot of hay was made regarding the American data by the deniers saying that only “the adjustments that showed warming were used” a review showed that most of the adjusted readings originally (unadjusted) showed more warming. In any case, not a huge difference between the adjusted and unadjusted as these, on context, images show: > **[Does Urban Heat Island effect exaggerate global warming trends?](https://skepticalscience.com/urban-heat-island-effect.htm)** > > While urban areas are undoubtedly warmer than surrounding rural areas, this has had little to no impact on warming trends. ---
**Author:** ![MysteryFellow63427](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a88e4f/32.png) [@MysteryFellow63427](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MysteryFellow63427)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2011, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/256 "2011-01-21T01:54:09Z")
I am very interested in hearing some more information on models. **Sam Stone** and others have mentioned them. I submit that the test of a good climate model is twofold: (1) Does it demonstrate accuracy with respect to past data? (2) Does it accurately project future data? Regarding point 1, models can easily be run thousands (millions) of times, and tweaked to achieve compliance with the past. Thus, the ability of a model to predict past data is really nothing more than a bare minimum from which to judge success. **GIGObuster** cited [How reliable are climate models?](http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm) when asked about models. With due respect, this link does nothing beyond claim that past data has been replicated by models. > [@SkepticalScience](#): > > Climate models have to be tested to find out if they work. We can’t wait for 30 years to see if a model is any good or not; models are tested against the past, against what we know happened. **If a model can correctly predict trends from a starting point somewhere in the past, we could expect it to predict with reasonable certainty what might happen in the future.** > > So all models are first tested in a process called Hindcasting. The models used to predict future global warming can accurately map past climate changes. **If they get the past right, there is no reason to think their predictions would be wrong.** If we’re going to go with the bold, how about a little confirmation from the recent past? Can anyone show an unadjusted model from 1980 that (a) retrospectively got 1890-1980 temps correct; and (b) prospectively got 1980-2010 temps correct? Can anyone show an unadjusted model from 1990 that (a) retrospectively got 1890-1990 temps correct; and (b) prospectively got 1990-2010 temps correct? I understand that events like the Mt. Pinatubo cooling cannot be predicted, and thus a 1980 model going forward won’t be perfect, for example. My impression (no cite) is that there have been a great many past models that have accurately “predicted” the past, but few or none that have done a good job of predicting temperatures _going forward_. I’d be greatly edified if anyone has any further info on this point. ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2011, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/257 "2011-01-21T01:54:59Z")
> [@Ají de Gallina](#): > > > [@Kimstu](#): > > > > No, the central case is not based on “we don’t know what could cause the warming trends except CO2”. It’s based on the combination of the following facts: > > a) we understand how increasing CO2 physically causes warming, > > b) we understand the long-term correlation between CO2 levels and temperature in past eras, > > c) we know that CO2 levels have been drastically increasing due to human activity, > > d) and also we have found no other physical mechanism to account for the observed warming besides anthropogenic CO2 increases. > > > > That’s not an argument based on ignorance, any more than it’s basing the theory of gravitation on ignorance to acknowledge that we haven’t found any physical mechanism besides gravity that can explain our observations of falling objects and orbiting bodies. > > But in the end it’s “d”. No, it’s **all** of them. The fact that we understand the physical mechanism by which atmospheric greenhouse gases cause warming is at least as important as the fact that we haven’t been able to find any other physical mechanism that can successfully explain the warming. > [@Ají de Gallina](#): > > > [@Kimstu](#): > > > > Starting with the basics: Climate sensitivity is usually defined as the change in average global temperature (in degrees centigrade) resulting from a doubling of the atmospheric CO2 concentration. The IPCC Fourth Assessment Report estimates climate sensitivity at somewhere between 2 to 4.5 degrees C, most probably around 3 degrees. > > > > The IPCC currently predicts the increase in global mean temperature to fall somewhere between about 1.5 and 6 degrees C by 2100. > > Sorry, 1.5 to 6 is too much uncertainty. > Each doubling is less important than the previous ones. Are you trying to say that a range of 1.5 to 6 degrees is somehow too big? Why? For what? Although it’s certainly true that it would be preferable to have a more narrowly pinpointed estimate, do you imagine that just because the estimate isn’t as precise as you’d like then you’re justified in ignoring it altogether? Why? And what on earth do you mean by “each doubling is less important than the previous ones”? Climate sensitivity is a measure of how much temperature changes if CO2 concentration doubles **once**. > [@Ají de Gallina](#): > > One example > [Actual measurements.](http://briefingroom.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c51bc53ef012875dc00a7970c-pi) > [Adjusted data.](http://briefingroom.typepad.com/.a/6a00d8341c51bc53ef012875dc003a970c-pi) > stuff like that. What exactly are you objecting to in those two graphs? You seem to have just arbitrarily decided that you don’t like the data adjustment, but you don’t say why. As we saw in one of **GIGObuster** ’s earlier links, it’s perfectly routine to adjust temperature measurement data for local measurement biases, and there’s nothing fishy about it. What in particular is bothering you about it, and why? ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2011, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/258 "2011-01-21T02:01:23Z")
> [@neuroman](#): > > I understand that events like the Mt. Pinatubo cooling cannot be predicted, and thus a 1980 model going forward won’t be perfect, for example. My impression (no cite) is that there have been a great many past models that have accurately “predicted” the past, but few or none that have done a good job of predicting temperatures _going forward_. I’d be greatly edified if anyone has any further info on this point. Of course, one can miss the "intermediate’ tab in the cite: > **[How reliable are climate models?](https://skepticalscience.com/climate-models-intermediate.htm)** > > \While there are uncertainties with climate models, they successfully reproduce the past and have made predictions that have been subsequently confirmed by observations.\ > [@](#): > > When Mount Pinatubo erupted in 1991, it provided an opportunity to test how successfully models could predict the climate response to the sulfate aerosols injected into the atmosphere.\*\* The models accurately forecasted the subsequent global cooling of about 0.5 °C soon after the eruption. Furthermore, the radiative, water vapor and dynamical feedbacks included in the models were also quantitatively verified\*\* ---
**Author:** ![Kimstu](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ecd19e/32.png) [@Kimstu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kimstu)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2011, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/259 "2011-01-21T02:01:42Z")
> [@neuroman](#): > > GIGObuster cited [How reliable are climate models?](http://www.skepticalscience.com/climate-models.htm) when asked about models. With due respect, this link does nothing beyond claim that past data has been replicated by models. You need to click on the blue “Intermediate” tab on that page to get fuller details (the page opens at the green “Basic” tab, which just gives a short summary). The Intermediate version has a discussion of and links to evaluations of Hansen’s 1988 climate model predictions. ETA: As **GIGObuster** points out. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [January 21, 2011, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/260 "2011-01-21T02:30:48Z")
Great minds think alike, eh **Kimstu**? 😉 \* The wink is because I do not consider myself a great mind, but after seeing how many argue themselves into ignoring science, I do have to wonder. 😃 Just remember folks, always check the sources, and I have to say to the “skeptics” that they should show some skepticism themselves and at least check if the [del]BS[/del] information coming from denier sites has good sources or the citations to show that the article creators are not misinterpreting the original reports. Also, the mere fact that many contrarians loath to check a site like [Skeptical Science](http://www.skepticalscience.com/) is not a sign of fortitude, it is a sign of not even bothering to make a quick search to see if a point was answered already to death so as to avoid embarrassment. Otherwise you are not impressing anyone that has done even a little research. Although to me it is fun and educational to see how many gullible people continue to fall on their faces with so much gusto. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421.md?page=14)