# "It's cold, so there's no global warming." Do they KNOW that's false? **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [January 13, 2011, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421 "2011-01-13T03:27:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Drunky\_Smurf](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/drunky_smurf/32/449_2.png) [@Drunky\_Smurf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drunky_Smurf)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2011, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/41 "2011-01-13T17:08:48Z")
Oh for fucks sake. You GW people are idiots. It’s winter right now. If there was GW then it wouldn’t be winter right it would fucking be summer but it isn’t summer right now is it bitches? No, it’s fucking winter. Maybe you idiots should go outside once in awhile. ---
**Author:** ![Dread\_Pirate\_Jimbo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dread_pirate_jimbo/32/3897_2.png) [@Dread\_Pirate\_Jimbo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dread_Pirate_Jimbo)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2011, 5:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/42 "2011-01-13T17:17:26Z")
Having a quick peek at [NASA](http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata/GLB.Ts.txt)’s numbers this morning, I noticed that their global temperature for December is now posted and, due to the La Nina cycle, it was predictably cooler than the rest of the year – the colest December since 2002, in fact. However, that still makes 2010 far and away the warmest year on record and the first decade of this century the warmest decade on record. Just sayin’ 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Raygun99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/6f9a4e/32.png) [@Raygun99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Raygun99)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2011, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/43 "2011-01-13T17:31:29Z")
> [@gravitycrash](#): > > Yeah, I was just going to bring that hurricane stat up. I specifically remember the prediction that 2010 was going to be a monster year for hurricanes. > **[2010 Atlantic hurricane season](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Atlantic_hurricane_season)** > > The 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active hurricane season since 2005 and the first of three consecutive active hurricane seasons, each with 19 named storms. This well above average activity included 12 hurricanes, equaling the number that formed in 1969. The season officially began on June 1 and ended on November 30, dates that conventionally delimit the period during each year when tropical cyclone formation is most likely. The first cyclone, Alex intensified into the first Jun... “Due to a moderate La Niña, the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season was well above-average with the most number of named storms since 2005. The 2010 Atlantic season ties with the 1995 Atlantic hurricane season and the 1887 Atlantic hurricane season for the third largest number of named storms, with 19, and it also ties with the 1969 Atlantic hurricane season and 1887 for the second largest number of hurricanes, with 12.[2] In addition, the activity in the north Atlantic in 2010 exceeded the activity in the northwest Pacific Typhoon season. The only other known time this event happened was in 2005. [3]” ---
**Author:** ![MysteryFellow63427](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a88e4f/32.png) [@MysteryFellow63427](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MysteryFellow63427)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2011, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/44 "2011-01-13T17:47:54Z")
> [@Buck\_Godot](#): > > FACT 1: Humanity is putting large amounts of green house gasses such as CO2 into the atmosphere > > FACT 2: Greenhouse gasses act to trap infrared radiation which would otherwise be lost into space. > > FACT 3: The average world temperature has been increasing. > > **In order for FACT 1 not to be the cause of FACT 3, you need to provided 2 things, 1) a non human caused reason for the planet to heat up,** Full stop. This is flawed thinking. Vastly different climates have occurred on Earth before the rise of man, and we thus we know that nature is capable of great variation in climate. The null hypothesis (default assumption) in the case of AGW should be that “all climate change is natural (non man-made).” The next step then is to show that human activity is the cause of recent climate changes (i.e., 20th century warming.) ---
**Author:** ![gravitycrash](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@gravitycrash](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gravitycrash)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2011, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/45 "2011-01-13T17:56:24Z")
I should have mentioned that the prediction was for the United States. I could have sworn that it came from the NOAA or NASA but it very well could have been reported wrong, which is entirely likely given my views on news reporting in general. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2011, 6:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/46 "2011-01-13T18:38:06Z")
[HuffPost - Breaking News, U.S. and World News | HuffPost](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/01/12/hottest-year-on-record-20_n_808109.html) Tied 2005 as hottest year ever. It was the wettest and wildest. That somehow proves Al Gore was lying. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2011, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/47 "2011-01-13T19:42:19Z")
> [@neuroman](#): > > Full stop. This is flawed thinking. Vastly different climates have occurred on Earth before the rise of man, and we thus we know that nature is capable of great variation in climate. > > The null hypothesis (default assumption) in the case of AGW should be that “all climate change is natural (non man-made).” The next step then is to show that human activity is the cause of recent climate changes (i.e., 20th century warming.) Do you really think scientists have not taken that into account already, and for several decades? The flawed thinking is to assume that they have not. > [@](#): > > What the science says… > > Climate reacts to whatever forces it to change at the time; humans are now the dominant forcing. > > A common skeptic argument is that climate has changed naturally in the past, long before SUVs and coal-fired power plants, so therefore humans cannot be causing global warming now. Interestingly, the peer-reviewed research into past climate change comes to the opposite conclusion. To understand this, first you have to ask why climate has changed in the past. It doesn’t happen by magic. Climate changes when it’s forced to change. When our planet suffers an energy imbalance and gains or loses heat, global temperature changes. > > There are a number of different forces which can influence the Earth’s climate. When the sun gets brighter, the planet receives more energy and warms. When volcanoes erupt, they emit particles into the atmosphere which reflect sunlight, and the planet cools. When there are more greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the planet warms. These effects are referred to as external forcings because by changing the planet’s energy balance, they force climate to change. > > It is obviously true that past climate change was caused by natural forcings. However, to argue that this means we can’t cause climate change is like arguing that humans can’t start bushfires because in the past they’ve happened naturally. Greenhouse gas increases have caused climate change many times in Earth’s history, and we are now adding greenhouse gases to the atmosphere at a increasingly rapid rate. This was already mentioned BTW. > **[What does past climate change tell us about global warming?](https://skepticalscience.com/climate-change-little-ice-age-medieval-warm-period.htm)** > > Natural climate change in the past proves that climate is sensitive to an energy imbalance. If the planet accumulates heat, global temperatures will go up. Currently, CO2 is imposing an energy imbalance due to the enhanced greenhouse effect. Past... ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2011, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/48 "2011-01-13T19:52:14Z")
> [@neuroman](#): > > Full stop. This is flawed thinking. Vastly different climates have occurred on Earth before the rise of man, and we thus we know that nature is capable of great variation in climate. The emphasis of my post was more in the direction of my second requirement. There are certainly non-man made reasons why the climate may have changed, but you are still stuck with explaining why the greenhouse gases are disobeying the laws of physics and not causing the planet to heat up. Sure Becky’s weight gain could be purely caused by a thyroid problem, but then you have to explain why her reducing exercise and eating ice cream didn’t cause her to gain weight. ---
**Author:** ![Candyman74](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ad7895/32.png) [@Candyman74](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Candyman74)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2011, 8:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/49 "2011-01-13T20:05:32Z")
Reminds me of a comedian I saw on TV saying: “Look, dumbass, global warming doesn’t mean _the weather where you are right now_!” ---
**Author:** ![Bridget\_Burke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/7cd45c/32.png) [@Bridget\_Burke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bridget_Burke)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2011, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/50 "2011-01-13T20:15:18Z")
> [@gravitycrash](#): > > Yeah, I was just going to bring that hurricane stat up. I specifically remember the prediction that 2010 was going to be a monster year for hurricanes. Oh well, maybe 2011 will be… At the end of the 2010 season, I remember reading that predictions had been [pretty accurate](http://www.pennwellblogs.com/tropics_watch/2010-11-09/2010-the-most-active-inactive-season-on-record/); we take these storms seriously on the Gulf Coast. > [@](#): > > For residents of the U.S., the 2010 hurricane season will be remembered for how quiet it was. Had it not been for the very weak Tropical Storm Bonnie which struck south Florida or the quite strong Tropical Storm Hermine that crossed the Mexican border into deep South Texas, the U.S. would have made it through the 2010 season unscathed. Little would U.S. residents know that the pre-season predictions of a “hyperactive” 2010 hurricane season with 17-20 named storms had actually come true! > > In fact, the 2010 season ranks as one of the most active seasons on record, with 19 named storms, 12 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes. Only 1933 and 2005 had more named storms, and only 2005 had more hurricanes (15) than we saw this year in the Atlantic Basin. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE), a measure of seasonal activity that takes into consideration how strong the season’s storms were and how long they lasted, was in the “hyperactive” range, with a total of 159.5 ACE points. A seasonal ACE of 103 is about normal, 150 is considered to be hyperactive. The predictions generally estimate the number of serious storms throughout the hemisphere–then, their predicted landfall. The USA lucked out on the “landfall” part. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2011, 8:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/51 "2011-01-13T20:36:18Z")
> [@rachelellogram](#): > > I never claimed or implied that humanity cannot cause gw. Merely that there exists reasonable doubt that humanity is the primary cause of gw. It doesn’t matter, does it? If we are responsible for 30% or 70%, there is not a lot we can do to reduce the natural component, so we had better work on ours. ---
**Author:** ![Voyager](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/voyager/32/133_2.png) [@Voyager](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Voyager)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2011, 8:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/52 "2011-01-13T20:38:30Z")
> [@Cat\_Whisperer](#): > > To muddy the waters further, we’re in a La Nina year right now which is affecting how things play out - there are cycles within the weather patterns beyond current weather and long-term climate. And to add another cycle, La Nina years are usually dry in the Eastern Pacific, but this one is wet in parts (like California, especially southern California). But this seems to be pure chance. ---
**Author:** ![Duke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e8c25b/32.png) [@Duke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duke)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2011, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/53 "2011-01-13T20:49:28Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I’ve spent a long time looking at the global warming debate from a skeptical viewpoint. I would like to believe that the AGW hypothesis is false. But I can’t do that. Just out of curiosity, why do you want to believe that “the AGW hypothesis is false”? What interest do you have in believing that a scientific hypothesis is true or false? ---
**Author:** ![Moonlitherial](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4bbf92/32.png) [@Moonlitherial](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moonlitherial)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2011, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/54 "2011-01-13T20:50:52Z")
> [@Voyager](#): > > It doesn’t matter, does it? If we are responsible for 30% or 70%, there is not a lot we can do to reduce the natural component, so we had better work on ours. It kind of does. If, no matter what we do we can’t do enough to shift the forces that are naturally occuring then in doesn’t make sense to bankrupt ourselves to do it, it makes more sense to plan for how to deal with climate change and invest our money there. It’s important when judging the risk/reward of action or inaction to have all the information. The issue with climate change is that not only do we not have all the information, those who are responsible for gathering it are being bought and paid for by people who have a vested interest in the outcome on both sides of the issue. So I play the odds. I do my best to reduce my own footprint within what I decide are reasonable financial impacts. From a national or global perspective that’s more difficult because decisions made on that level impact other people’s finances. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Second\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@The\_Second\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Second_Stone)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2011, 9:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/55 "2011-01-13T21:28:24Z")
Yes, they really are that dumb. Average temperatures are up and continue to rise. That some days record cold temperatures are set would effect global averages to drop rather than rise if it weren’t true. If global temperatures rise 5 degress Celsius over the next 100 years as predicted, that does not mean that there will not be vicious cold snaps, but rather more hot days. This really sucks for cities on coasts, which must account for 2 billion people. 1 to 3 feet elevation rise is going to be really crappy on coastal communities and buildings. What really worries me is if all the stored methane in tundra and undersea traps starts off gassing into the atmosphere. ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2011, 9:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/56 "2011-01-13T21:32:50Z")
> [@Hilarity\_N.Suze](#): > > If they are going to call it “global warming” then a warming trend should emerge. No such warming trend has emerged. > > Now they are backpedaling and saying, “Oh, we meant global climate change.” > > Okay. Why didn’t they state it that way when they proposed the hypothesis? I guess it was because they thought it was going to be warmer, right? And then, when that didn’t happen, they changed the terminology, so that any weird weather qualified as global warming. > > I mean, really. If the whole world gets colder, you can’t really call that “warming” now, can you? Are you stupid? Ontopic: This answers the question in the OP, they don’t actually know. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2011, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/57 "2011-01-13T21:36:13Z")
[QUOTE=The Second Stone] If global temperatures rise 5 degress Celsius over the next 100 years as predicted, that does not mean that there will not be vicious cold snaps, but rather more hot days. [/QUOTE] As predicted by who? The last I remember the IPCC was predicting something like a 2 degree Celsius rise over that time period. Have they updated this to 5 degrees C, or is this some other prediction? -XT ---
**Author:** ![DMC](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dmc/32/18049_2.png) [@DMC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMC)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2011, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/58 "2011-01-13T21:36:21Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > I mean, there’s arguing (which I don’t necessarily mind, even on a subject like this) and arguing in bad faith, and I’m wondering how much of it is going on here… Aside from arguing in bad faith or from ignorance, some people refuse to listen when they are informed (I guess we could bucket that with ignorance, if we wanted). Hell, the first response to your OP was eerily similar to a post the same person made in 2009, and it was thoroughly explained to them at that time. Are they lying, forgetful, or just not paying attention? ---
**Author:** ![Lobohan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lobohan/32/79_2.png) [@Lobohan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lobohan)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2011, 9:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/59 "2011-01-13T21:37:41Z")
> [@Duke](#): > > Just out of curiosity, why do you want to believe that “the AGW hypothesis is false”? What interest do you have in believing that a scientific hypothesis is true or false? Because conservatives and libertarians hate the idea that regulation is necessary. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [January 13, 2011, 9:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421/60 "2011-01-13T21:39:48Z")
> [@Duke](#): > > Just out of curiosity, why do you want to believe that “the AGW hypothesis is false”? What interest do you have in believing that a scientific hypothesis is true or false? I should think **anyone** who has to live on this planet’s surface would like for it to be false. One less set of future problems to worry about. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-cold-so-theres-no-global-warming-do-they-know-thats-false/567421.md?page=4)