# It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 31, 2016, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286 "2016-10-31T19:14:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/41 "2016-11-01T12:52:51Z")
The one good thing about the alt right is that they aren’t that interested in tax cuts for the rich. Which is why Trump is actually not a good representative for them. Someone in the 2020 thread mentioned Joe Arpaio. That won’t happen, but I think if the GOP does end up on that track that it’ll be someone of humbler means and more truly populist candidate in the Tom Tancredo mold. Heck, Tancredo might even run and have a chance if he says the right things to the right people at the right time. But Joe Arpaio is probably the type of candidate the alt right would truly love to nominate. Hey, isn’t Steve King still young enough to be that guy? ---
**Author:** ![inscrutable](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/a88e4f/32.png) [@inscrutable](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/inscrutable)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/42 "2016-11-01T13:08:43Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > What makes you automatically assume that the violence in Chicago is form an organized “left wing”? I don’t assume that. Just countering your hypothetical violence with reality. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 1:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/43 "2016-11-01T13:47:21Z")
The best we can do is hope for demographic collapse of the gop. But who knows. The way things are going now, the gop should be in serious trouble by 2030 due to demographics but nobody can predict the future. Maybe the gop actually finds a way to unite white nationalists and racial and cultural minorities. Also how does the gop maintain a coalition of authoritarians and libertarians? I guess the rise of Johnson shows there is some discord, but will libertarian party votes drop back down to 1% in 2020? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 1:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/44 "2016-11-01T13:48:04Z")
Left wing violence: fortunately, liberals can’t shoot: > **[North Dakota pipeline protester charged with attempted murder](https://www.yahoo.com/news/north-dakota-pipeline-protester-charged-attempted-murder-225434798--finance.html)** > > A demonstrator protesting last week at the construction site of an oil pipeline in North Dakota was charged on Monday with the attempted murder of a law enforcement officer, according to court documents. Red Fawn Fallis, 37, was confronted by two... ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/45 "2016-11-01T13:53:54Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > The best we can do is hope for demographic collapse of the gop. But who knows. The way things are going now, the gop should be in serious trouble by 2030 due to demographics but nobody can predict the future. Maybe the gop actually finds a way to unite white nationalists and racial and cultural minorities. Or the GOP goes away and something else takes its place. Plus assuming that young white liberals won’t become old, bitter, white nationalists is a stretch. In Europe, young people are as likely to be white nationalists as old people. There’s also no guarantee that “white nationalism” won’t morph into something less race based. White nationalists today have a knack for pushing away people of color who are inclined to agree with them about some of the issues they are concerned about, like a flood of cheap labor coming into the country. In the future, there might not be white nationalists, just nationalists. > [@](#): > > Also how does the gop maintain a coalition of authoritarians and libertarians? I guess the rise of Johnson shows there is some discord, but will libertarian party votes drop back down to 1% in 2020? That’s only a complication if one party becomes clearly more friendly to libertarians. Democrats aren’t becoming more libertarian, they are becoming less as well. This won’t last, because the public is becoming more libertarian at the same time that the parties are becoming less. So as always happens in a democracy, if a group is large enough and not represented, it will eventually be represented. It’s just a matter of who identifies the underserved group first. ---
**Author:** ![FlikTheBlue](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fliktheblue/32/10972_2.png) [@FlikTheBlue](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FlikTheBlue)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 1:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/46 "2016-11-01T13:55:04Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The one good thing about the alt right is that they aren’t that interested in tax cuts for the rich. Which is why Trump is actually not a good representative for them. They aren’t? If not, then they must be highly politically impotent. I can’t think of a single Republican congressman that doesn’t seem to believe that the answer to all our economic woes is to cut taxes on the rich. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/47 "2016-11-01T14:11:23Z")
That’s because the alt right doesn’t have an actual leader yet. Trump was the nearest best thing because he appeals to a lot of their anger, but one area where Trump is not is on “the rich”, because he’s rich. For the alt right to get a true leader, it’ll have to be someone who can win a Presidential primary without fame, without money of his own, and in the face of a hostile press. Since that candidate doesn’t really exist, they may indeed be mostly powerless. But Trump has at least given them a sense that they CAN have power within the GOP coalition. Although in the future it might be more at the Congressional level, electing more Tom Tancredo/Steve King types. ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/48 "2016-11-01T14:18:05Z")
“Hey, maybe the neo-Nazis won’t be so bad in the future” isn’t a terribly compelling statement. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 2:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/49 "2016-11-01T14:21:27Z")
Being anti-rich doesn’t make Nazis better. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 2:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/50 "2016-11-01T14:30:36Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **adaher** : > > We don’t actually have to do anything of the sort. What is the practical consequence of the last six years? None that I can see other than Democrats not getting what they want out of DC. One consequence I can see is the start of a systematic effort to destroy one of the three branches of government. The Republicans have already done 11% of the job, and prominent Republican senators have already vowed that they’ll finish the other 89%. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/51 "2016-11-01T14:31:40Z")
There is no such effort taking place. I hope that obstruction won’t continue, but it works both ways. If Congress can actually pass legislation, I hope Clinton won’t obstruct. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/52 "2016-11-01T14:33:03Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > So it just means Democrats need to win 55% of the vote instead of 51%. Or broaden their appeal. What, only a four percent advantage? Well, shucks, nothing to see here, then! I mean, its not like such a virtuous bunch like the Republicans would take unfair advantage of such a thing, seeing as how they embody civic virtue! Of course, if they added some sort of voter suppression efforts on top of that, well, then maybe…just _maybe_!..that would be something. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/53 "2016-11-01T14:43:53Z")
Not hard at all, actually. In 2008, the Democrats won by 11% in the House: > **[2008 United States House of Representatives elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections%2C_2008)** > > Nancy Pelosi > Democratic > Nancy Pelosi > Democratic > The 2008 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 4, 2008, to elect members to the United States House of Representatives to serve in the 111th United States Congress from January 3, 2009, until January 3, 2011. It coincided with the election of Barack Obama as President. All 435 voting seats, as well as all 6 non-voting seats, were up for election. The Democratic Party, which won a majority of seats in the 2006 ele... In 2006, they won by 8%: > **[2006 United States House of Representatives elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections%2C_2006)** > > Dennis Hastert > Republican > Nancy Pelosi > Democratic > The 2006 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 7, 2006, to elect members to the United States House of Representatives. It took place in the middle of President George W. Bush's second term in office. All 435 seats of the House were up for election. Those elected served in the 110th United States Congress from January 3, 2007, until January 3, 2009. The incumbent majority party, the Republicans, had won majoritie... Whining about winning by 1% and not getting the House to flip is just, well, whining: > **[2012 United States House of Representatives elections](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections%2C_2012)** > > John Boehner > Republican > John Boehner > Republican > The 2012 United States House of Representatives elections were held on November 6, 2012. It coincided with the reelection of President Barack Obama. Elections were held for all 435 seats representing the 50 U.S. states and also for the delegates from the District of Columbia and five major U.S. territories. The winners of this election cycle served in the 113th United States Congress. This was the first congressional election using districts dr... According to my cites, Democrats just need 52% to flip the House. In 2012, they only got 48%. Expecting the HOuse to flip on 48% is not realistic. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/54 "2016-11-01T14:45:40Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > There is no such effort taking place. Can you clarify whether you misunderstood his comment or if you’re denying that there’s an effort to obstruct the appointment of additional Supreme Court Justices? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/55 "2016-11-01T14:50:26Z")
That is not an effort to destroy a branch of government. It’s not a good thing, but it threatens the Supreme Court not at all. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/56 "2016-11-01T14:51:10Z")
> [@](#): > > …According to my cites, Democrats just need 52% to flip the House. In 2012, they only got 48%. Expecting the HOuse to flip on 48% is not realistic. Good point! After all, we give a little boost, a “leg-up” for people who are impaired in various ways, why not a little extra help for the cognitively constipated? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/57 "2016-11-01T14:54:16Z")
I don’t dispute that there’s gerrymandering, but I’m just making the point that Democrats don’t have to move mountains to get Congress back. The actual reason it’s hard is because voters in purple and red districts have stopped believing that their local Democrats will represent them instead of the national party. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/58 "2016-11-01T15:04:05Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > It’s not a good thing, but it threatens the Supreme Court not at all. You’re wrong. The refusal to even vote on Democratic appointments is a quantum leap in the politicization of the court, and down that road lies the death of its legitimacy. Without respect and legitimacy for the Court, it is powerless. Why should a Governor who has been told that his state’s law violates the Constitution obey a court that is just a Senate subcommittee? ---
**Author:** ![Snarky\_Kong](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a183cd/32.png) [@Snarky\_Kong](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Snarky_Kong)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/59 "2016-11-01T15:06:26Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I don’t dispute that there’s gerrymandering, but I’m just making the point that Democrats don’t have to move mountains to get Congress back. The actual reason it’s hard is because voters in purple and red districts have stopped believing that their local Democrats will represent them instead of the national party. Bullshit. The Dems got more votes than the GOP and lost seats. That speaks far more to gerrymandering than it does dissatisfaction with representatives. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 1, 2016, 4:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/60 "2016-11-01T16:07:05Z")
They won seats in 2012, they just didn’t win that many. But that’s understandable given they won 48% of the vote. Typically, you have to get 52% or more to see major movement in the House’s makeup. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286.md?page=4)