# It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [October 31, 2016, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286 "2016-10-31T19:14:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2017, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/81 "2017-03-09T15:39:28Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Bump. Why? ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [March 9, 2017, 5:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/82 "2017-03-09T17:12:33Z")
> [@BigAppleBucky](#): > > One totally wrong prediction and one that probably will be wrong given the GOP propensity to put party over country. > > Trump is more awful than most people imagined. And getting worse. The meeting he had last night was with a who’s who roster of the Koch brother’s PACs and “foundations”, the purpose of which was apparently a rah-rah session to assure them that the super rich will remain so, and that the insidious agendas of these people will be nurtured. ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_Quatro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/bc8723/32.png) [@Mr\_Quatro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Quatro)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2017, 10:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/83 "2017-11-20T10:08:48Z")
It could get worse before it gets better for North Korea that is … everyone is worried about President Trump using nuclear weapons to knock out NK. but I sincerely believe that President Trump won’t use nuclear weapons first and that a plan already exist to destroy NK ability to launch nuclear weapons using what we already have available like EMP bombs and Tomahawks from SSBN submarines and B-1 to B-2 bombers and even B-52’s. Lets face it Trump is not crazy enough to use nuclear weapons first, but only in self defense … He is a poker player and the enemy is backing off. [https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/no-one-can-prevent-trump-from-using-nuclear-weapons-experts-say/ar-BBFc4h4](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/no-one-can-prevent-trump-from-using-nuclear-weapons-experts-say/ar-BBFc4h4) > [@](#): > > A system of checks and balances exists to prevent a U.S. president from illegally ordering a nuclear strike, but no one can stop the commander in chief from using nuclear weapons, according to senior military experts and a former vice president. > > “If President Trump were to decide that it’s time to put (North Korean leader) Kim Jong Un in his place once and for all, he would choose a plan that already exists. And it would be almost impossible in my view to override a decision to implement that option,” Bruce G. Blair, a former nuclear missile launch officer and co-founder of the Global Zero group that advocates eliminating nuclear weapons, told USA TODAY on Sunday. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2017, 10:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/84 "2017-11-20T10:23:33Z")
> [@BigAppleBucky](#): > > One totally wrong prediction and one that probably will be wrong given the GOP propensity to put party over country. > > Trump is more awful than most people imagined. And getting worse. Turns out I was completely wrong, although for reasons I didn’t suspect. The real problem with the GOP as it turns out wasn’t even obstruction of Obama. It was that they can’t govern at all. They have the votes, they have a President of their party, but they can’t pass squat because the factions simply cannot come to an agreement on anything. Further evidence that this wasn’t really about Obama: the same votes that Obama couldn’t get, McConnell and Ryan can’t get either. It may have been McConnell’s plan to obstruct Obama, but given what we’ve seen the last year McConnell couldn’t have gotten the votes to pass anything after 2011 even if he’d supported Obama completely. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2017, 10:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/85 "2017-11-20T10:27:02Z")
> [@soonerblue](#): > > The Republicans won’t impeach him …they’re too giddy about being back in power. I agree with whoever said the GOP would allow a ham sandwich to stay in the Oval Office if it can sign all the tax cuts for the wealthy they put in front of it. They can’t even pass that. The votes just aren’t there in the Senate. I don’t think any Republican leaders are really all that thrilled about how things are going. ---
**Author:** ![guizot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/guizot/32/3636_2.png) [@guizot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/guizot)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2017, 11:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/86 "2017-11-20T11:26:02Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The real problem with the GOP as it turns out wasn’t even obstruction of Obama. It was that they can’t govern at all. completely. Those are just two sides of the same coin. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2017, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/87 "2017-11-20T15:35:57Z")
adaher’s point is that McConnell’s obstruction of Obama looked like a strategy, and as it turns out it was happening quite accidentally. McConnell wasn’t blocking the road on purpose; his car was broken down. And it still is. If you said ten years ago that one party would control the White House, House of Reps, Senate, and, hell, effectively the Supreme Court, but would be unable to pass major legislation, people would think you were crazy. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2017, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/88 "2017-11-20T15:57:19Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > If you said ten years ago that one party would control the White House, House of Reps, Senate, and, hell, effectively the Supreme Court, but would be unable to pass major legislation, people would think you were crazy. I don’t know about 10 years ago, but when the GOP swept into Congressional control after Obama was elected in 2010, they couldn’t do squat. It really didn’t matter that the president was a Democrat. ---
**Author:** ![Bone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bone/32/407_2.png) [@Bone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bone)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2017, 4:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/89 "2017-11-20T16:09:54Z")
Not quite 10 years ago, but after watching the early parts of the Trump campaign, I predicted in July 2016 that if elected Trump would be ineffective. I’m not surprised in the least. I also thought Clinton would win so there’s that. ---
**Author:** ![Fotheringay-Phipps](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/d9b06d/32.png) [@Fotheringay-Phipps](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fotheringay-Phipps)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2017, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/90 "2017-11-20T16:36:05Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Turns out I was completely wrong, although for reasons I didn’t suspect. The real problem with the GOP as it turns out wasn’t even obstruction of Obama. It was that they can’t govern at all. They have the votes, they have a President of their party, but they can’t pass squat because the factions simply cannot come to an agreement on anything. > > Further evidence that this wasn’t really about Obama: the same votes that Obama couldn’t get, McConnell and Ryan can’t get either. It may have been McConnell’s plan to obstruct Obama, but given what we’ve seen the last year McConnell couldn’t have gotten the votes to pass anything after 2011 even if he’d supported Obama completely. It’s hard to fathom what you might be saying here. What “same votes” was Obama trying to get that McConnell and Ryan are also trying to get? Any legislation proposed by Obama would be liberal legislation opposed by conservatives and Republicans including McConnell and Ryan. M & R “got” those votes, in opposing Obama. Now, M & C are trying to pass legislation which is diametrically opposed to anything Obama might have favored, and they can’t get enough votes to pass it. But I don’t think it’s anything to do with dysfunction. It’s about polarization. The RW Republicans want Big Change, but the Republicans have a razor thin majority and even a few dissenters can sink that. If the RW would be satisfied with small change, then they could pass things. ---
**Author:** ![jasg](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f0a364/32.png) [@jasg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jasg)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2017, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/91 "2017-11-20T16:42:23Z")
> [@RickJay](#): > > If you said ten years ago that one party would control the White House, House of Reps, Senate, and, hell, effectively the Supreme Court, but would be unable to pass major legislation, people would think you were crazy. I think one could argue that since Will Rogers said : > [@](#): > > I am not a member of any organized political party. I am a Democrat. important shifts in party demographics have flipped things around. ---
**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\ **Post date:** [November 20, 2017, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/92 "2017-11-20T17:05:51Z")
> [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > It’s time to get used to court rulings, foreign policy, and executive orders as the primary forms of policy from the federal government, and a whole lot more of states and compacts among states setting their own agendas and taking the lead on issues like climate change. What the hell do you call 2011 - 2016? ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2017, 12:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/93 "2017-11-21T00:50:52Z")
Agree with **Fotheringay-Phipps** ’ criticism of **adaher** ’s point. yes, adaher is right that as of late 2017 the R congress is utterly crippled by internal division. But that’s not the same Congress that was opposing Obama in 2011, 2012, 2013 … There are similarities, but the dial’s been turned up to eleventy-17. And, as **FP** said, the critical difference is that back then the R congressional factions may have been unable to agree on what to do, but they always agreed that whatever Obama wanted, they were agin’ it. It’s easy to be the party of No when the President is of the other party. They ought to be the party of Yes now. But they can’t be. (Thank goodness). As **adaher** rightly said. ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2017, 2:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/94 "2017-11-21T02:52:06Z")
> [@ThisIsTheEnd](#): > > What the hell do you call 2011 - 2016? My point was that I think a lot of people regarded it as an aberration rather than the new normal. Seems like a pretty sound prediction to me, despite the Trump victory. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2017, 3:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/95 "2017-11-21T03:35:54Z")
> [@Bone](#): > > Not quite 10 years ago, but after watching the early parts of the Trump campaign, I predicted in July 2016 that if elected Trump would be ineffective. I’m not surprised in the least. I also thought Clinton would win so there’s that. He’s ineffective, but congress and most government institutions are perceived as being equally ineffective. Voters in this congress are confused and don’t know whom to hold accountable for governmental dysfunction. “Both sides do it,” or so many think. “Turd sandwich vs. Giant Douche.” Cute and funny as a cartoon, but in reality, what it translates into is: We need a superman. And there ain’t nothin’ funny about that. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2017, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/96 "2017-11-21T03:58:01Z")
> [@Bone](#): > > Not quite 10 years ago, but after watching the early parts of the Trump campaign, I predicted in July 2016 that if elected Trump would be ineffective. I’m not surprised in the least. I also thought Clinton would win so there’s that. Although Trump is terrible it now seems apparent that a Jeb Bush or John Kasich would also have been unable to pass legislation. The days when a Bush, Delay and Lott could twist arms to get votes is over. Back then there were about 70 principled ideologues in the House and about 5 in the Senate. Now the numbers are closer to 150 in the House and 20 in the Senate. They can’t be intimidated or bought. Which sounds like a good thing, and in some ways it is, but they also don’t like to compromise, which is bad. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2017, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/97 "2017-11-21T03:59:58Z")
> [@Fotheringay-Phipps](#): > > It’s hard to fathom what you might be saying here. > > What “same votes” was Obama trying to get that McConnell and Ryan are also trying to get? Any legislation proposed by Obama would be liberal legislation opposed by conservatives and Republicans including McConnell and Ryan. M & R “got” those votes, in opposing Obama. Now, M & C are trying to pass legislation which is diametrically opposed to anything Obama might have favored, and they can’t get enough votes to pass it. > > But I don’t think it’s anything to do with dysfunction. It’s about polarization. The RW Republicans want Big Change, but the Republicans have a razor thin majority and even a few dissenters can sink that. If the RW would be satisfied with small change, then they could pass things. When I say the same votes, I mean specific Senators like Rand Paul, John McCain, Susan Collins, and Lisa Murkowski. These are Senators who are not known for being hyperpartisan and yet rejected almost everything Obama wanted. And are also rejecting almost everything McConnell wants as well. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2017, 5:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/98 "2017-11-21T05:36:38Z")
So suppose it wasn’t Trump who was POTUS, but a standard Republican like John Cornyn. Would GOP legislation just be sailing through right now? ---
**Author:** ![Richard\_Parker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/35a633/32.png) [@Richard\_Parker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard_Parker)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2017, 11:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/99 "2017-11-21T11:38:54Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > So suppose it wasn’t Trump who was POTUS, but a standard Republican like John Cornyn. Would GOP legislation just be sailing through right now? Part of the point of the OP is that normal people can no longer emerge from high stakes GOP primaries. Or rather, it is much harder. But that aside, seems obvious to me that while Trump has not been helpful, the failure of the GOP Congress to get anything done is mostly because of the rift between the normals and the crazies, with leadership largely caving to the crazies and then losing key normals. YMMV. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 21, 2017, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286/100 "2017-11-21T12:54:30Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > So suppose it wasn’t Trump who was POTUS, but a standard Republican like John Cornyn. Would GOP legislation just be sailing through right now? There’s a better chance, I think. I suppose Cornyn or hell, even Ted Cruz, would probably more skilled at being parliamentarian, which is really the kind of skill you need to build coalitions as an Executive. You’d still have votes along partisan lines but where Trump seems to be falling short is in convincing those final two or three voters that there’s something worth the risk taking in a controversial vote. The real issue is that the bills themselves suck badly and even those who vote ‘Aye’ are probably aware of it but are either numb to reality or interested in short-term benefit. The ones voting against Trump are looking at the long-term consequences. This is where and why it’s important for the president to be seen as the leader of the party, even if implicitly. You need the executive to be capable of nudging the different factions. Trump’s “Me! Me! Me! Look at me!” presidency makes that difficult. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-going-to-get-a-lot-worse-before-it-gets-better/770286.md?page=6)