# It's the economy stupid **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 21, 2023, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866 "2023-08-21T15:08:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2023, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/1 "2023-08-21T15:08:35Z")
Famous line by James Carville, during the 1992 Clinton presidential campaign. I was living in Little Rock during that time and met Carville at lunch one day at a downtown eatery. Interesting man and strategist. He was right, and I believe his axiom still holds a lot of water. If so, I don’t believe it’s going to bode well for Biden. > **['Pathetic': Voters of color slam Biden's performance on the economy](https://www.politico.com/news/2023/08/18/bidens-reelection-economy-voters-of-color-00111730)** > > “Our economy is the lowest it's been." ““Our economy is the lowest it’s been in god knows how long,” said a Hispanic respondent who lives in New Jersey. “We keep [sending] money to Ukraine and other countries rather than helping ourselves.”” " A survey from [Quinnipiac University on Wednesday](https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us08162023_usos65.pdf) found nearly six in ten Americans — 58 percent — disapprove of his handling of the economy. Biden is above water with Black voters on the economy, but 35 percent of Black voters still say they disapprove — a far cry from how he performed with this group in 2020. His marks with Hispanic voters are even worse, with 50 percent disapproving of his handling of the economy." “I’m definitely not happy with where America was when Trump was president. And I’m not happy with where America is, now that Biden’s president,” said an African American man from Cleveland, though he did say he remains a registered Democrat. “We’ve already had years of both of them being president and with no kind of good results. So **I’m hoping there’s some other you know, candidate or alternative besides these two.** ” While the statements of many of the voters polled in this article may not be accurate, it is their perception and perception is reality, especially in the voting booth. While unemployment continues to be low, it’s primarily due to an aging population and fewer people in the working age due to lower birth rates in the US which began after the Great Recession. The economy is expected to continue to slow down through 2024. This will continue to be an issue throughout the entire 2024 election cycle. Biden campaign team will need to find a way to change the narrative if he wants a chance at another term. ---
**Author:** ![What\_Exit](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/what_exit/32/10652_2.png) [@What\_Exit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/What_Exit)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2023, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/2 "2023-08-21T15:15:55Z")
Amazing ignorance if true. As one side is trying to raise minimum wage and improve the social safety net and get health care for all and the other side is against all 3. Also, quoting the Faux talking point “We keep sending money to Ukraine” makes me question the survey a lot. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2023, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/3 "2023-08-21T15:23:49Z")
> [@What\_Exit](#): > > Amazing ignorance if true. As one side is trying to raise minimum wage and improve the social safety net and get health care for all and the other side is against all 3. “Trying” is the problem word here. On the one hand, Biden has done a great job bringing back manufacturing jobs to the US, and getting commitments from companies to invest more in US jobs. But those new jobs aren’t making anything better for the large majority of people who can’t get those particular jobs. Everywhere else, wages are still stagnant, employment laws are still weighted heavily in the employer’s favor, creating unions is still far more difficult than it should be, and prices for everything are still going up. And that’s the economic reality that’s biting him in the ass. Of course, voting GOP won’t fix any of those problems, either, and will most likely make most of them worse, but that’s another argument entirely. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2023, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/4 "2023-08-21T15:29:59Z")
> [@Omar\_Little](#): > > While unemployment continues to be low, it’s primarily due to an aging population and fewer people in the working age due to lower birth rates in the US which began after the Great Recession. The economy is expected to continue to slow down through 2024. Cite? The economy is actually doing pretty well under Biden. The Inflation Reduction Act has driven a huge boost in American manufacturing and is bringing manufacturing back from overseas (the CEO of US Steel called it the “Manufacturing Renaissance Act”), and despite entrenched Republican opposition in public, the same members of the GOP are contacting Biden to ask for investment in their districts or simply claiming credit for the benefits of a bill they opposed wholeheartedly. Inflation is significantly down (although consumer prices remain high, thanks more to corporate gouging than inflation itself), especially compared to the US’s economic peers, and fuel prices have been falling for months. Deficit spending is way down. And as for the job market: if you adjust the job market for age, [it’s doing _really_ well](https://heathercoxrichardson.substack.com/p/july-19-2023?utm_source=%2Fsearch%2Feconomy&utm_medium=reader2). Which brings us to the “perception” issue. Why do so many people view Biden’s handling of the economy so negatively when his policies have been so successful? The answer is: because while Republicans are terrible at managing the economy (or, well, anything), the one thing they are highly skilled at is lying. So Biden gets blamed for the inflation (and corporate gouging) he didn’t cause, even as the GOP oppose every effort to address those problems. They repeat the “Democrats are profligate spenders!” narrative even though Democrats spend far more responsibly than Republicans do. And they handwave the job numbers and all the other indicators of an economy that is actually increasingly healthy. So there have been plenty of “good results”. But you’re right that the Biden campaign team will need to find a way to change that false narrative to a true one. [And they’re working on it](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_oNctN005Gc). ---
**Author:** ![Icarus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/icarus/32/72_2.png) [@Icarus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Icarus)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2023, 3:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/5 "2023-08-21T15:52:29Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Which brings us to the “perception” issue. Why do so many people view Biden’s handling of the economy so negatively when his policies have been so successful? The answer is: because while Republicans are terrible at managing the economy (or, well, anything), the one thing they are highly skilled at is lying. So Biden gets blamed for the inflation (and corporate gouging) he didn’t cause, even as the GOP oppose every effort to address those problems. They repeat the “Democrats are profligate spenders!” narrative even though Democrats spend far more responsibly than Republicans do. And they handwave the job numbers and all the other indicators of an economy that is actually increasingly healthy. > > So there have been plenty of “good results”. But you’re right that the Biden campaign team will need to find a way to change that false narrative to a true one. [And they’re working on it](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_oNctN005Gc). Yeah, in spite of what the right wing echo chamber regurgitates, there is no equivalent Democratic media organ drilled into the brains of a significant part of the population countering the “the economy is sh\*t because of Biden” narrative. Facts don’t matter, messaging does, and Biden is fighting a firehose on that front. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2023, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/6 "2023-08-21T16:25:29Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Why do so many people view Biden’s handling of the economy so negatively when his policies have been so successful? People’s opinions are shaped most by what they see right in front of them. And inflation slowing down doesn’t mean prices go down, it just means they go up less quickly. So if you struggle to buy groceries, you might be pissed off that you’re probably never going to see that 2020 price on your favorite cut of meat again – and if you don’t understand macroeconomics it’s easy to make that Biden’s fault. ---
**Author:** ![Thudlow\_Boink](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thudlow_boink/32/320_2.png) [@Thudlow\_Boink](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Thudlow_Boink)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2023, 4:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/7 "2023-08-21T16:29:54Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > People’s opinions are shaped most by what they see right in front of them. This. For most individuals, “it’s the economy” means “I (and/or my family and friends) am struggling economically, more so than I was when some other guy was President.” ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2023, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/8 "2023-08-21T16:52:38Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > The Inflation Reduction Act has driven a huge boost in American manufacturing The Republicans who opposed it take credit for it when their states benefit. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2023, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/9 "2023-08-21T16:54:45Z")
> [@Omar\_Little](#): > > This will continue to be an issue throughout the entire 2024 election cycle. Biden campaign team will need to find a way to change the narrative if he wants a chance at another term. I don’t disagree, and it won’t be easy. Fortunately, Biden does have tangible accomplishments his team can promote. Also fortunately, Republicans have tangible “accomplishments” the Biden team can also promote: - Unpopular abortion bans - Shameful discrimination against gays and trans people - Active efforts to making voting more difficult - A failed effort to force the U.S. into defaulting on its debt, which would have severely weakened the economy - A front-runner facing numerous felony indictments who, even if he’s not the nominee, will be a lightning rod for whoever is ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2023, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/10 "2023-08-21T17:05:57Z")
I think they’re pining for the days of cheap gas, zero supply, and pandemic lockdowns. Boy, the way Glenn Miller played. Yeah. It’s a perception issue, disgustingly capably driven-- per usual – by the right-wing slime machine. And – as always – when they have nothing, it matters not. They just pick something, and then drill, baby, drill! > **[Biden's Numbers, July 2023 Update - FactCheck.org](https://www.factcheck.org/2023/07/bidens-numbers-july-2023-update/)** > > Our latest update of what's happened in the U.S. under Biden's presidency. ---
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2023, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/11 "2023-08-21T17:13:37Z")
> [@Omar\_Little](#): > > The economy is expected to continue to slow down through 2024. > [@Gyrate](#): > > Cite? > **[Fed's long-term GDP outlook is dismal; the economy hasn't got the message yet](https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/feds-long-term-gdp-outlook-is-dismal-economy-hasnt-got-message-yet-2023-08-21/)** > > After puzzling for years over the sluggish U.S. rebound from the 2007-2009 recession, the Federal Reserve had a reckoning at its policy meeting in September of 2016. "Trump’s pre-COVID years ended with the unemployment rate at 3.5% in February 2020; it has been essentially at that level since March of 2022 under Biden, with the economy still adding roughly 200,000 jobs per month. It isn’t sustainable, said Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board think tank. Driven by government tax and spending policies, the run of above-potential growth doesn’t reflect any underlying shift in economic performance - at least not yet - and now faces two obstacles, she said." “In the next six to 12 months you probably have a recession and that is a function of the Fed,” the Conference Board’s Peterson said. “After that is done we will shift to a phase of slower growth.” ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2023, 5:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/12 "2023-08-21T17:13:42Z")
By just about any measurement, the economy is better off than when it was Morning in America under Reagan – lower unemployment, lower inflation, rising real wages. And, the workforce has rebounded to where it should have been, pre-pandemic, so there don’t seem to be many permanent pandemic scars. This is a perception problem, which is definitely still a problem. I believe it’s caused by one set of media being relentlessly negative when a Democrat is president and relentlessly positive when it’s a Republican, combined with another set of media that is always trying to find some kind of balance. So, inflation comes down and right-wing media ignores the news, while normal, truth-telling media reports something like “inflation is down, but not all is well”. Hopefully, inflation continues to come down and employment stays low, and the slowdown, if it happens, is shallow. ---
**Author:** ![DavidNRockies](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/davidnrockies/32/6279_2.png) [@DavidNRockies](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DavidNRockies)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2023, 5:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/13 "2023-08-21T17:21:20Z")
We should never forget that economists have correctly predicted 12 of the last eight recessions. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2023, 5:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/14 "2023-08-21T17:24:39Z")
> [@Omar\_Little](#): > > While unemployment continues to be low, it’s primarily due to an aging population and fewer people in the working age due to lower birth rates in the US which began after the Great Recession. This appears to be false. The chart at this [cite](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/labor-markets-charts/working-age-population-growth) seems to show continued growth in the working age population. > [@Horatius](#): > > Everywhere else, wages are still stagnant This appears to be out of date. This [cite](https://www.axios.com/2023/07/12/real-wage-gains-inflation) seems to show wages growing above inflation. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2023, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/15 "2023-08-21T17:41:07Z")
> [@RitterSport](#): > > This appears to be out of date. This [cite](https://www.axios.com/2023/07/12/real-wage-gains-inflation) seems to show wages growing above inflation. That’s just one snapshot in time, and doesn’t account for how much people lost in the last several years. While wages may be “up”, the purchasing power of that money has declined, which is what really matters. Also, this is talking about average wages, which includes those good-paying jobs I mentioned - the ones most employees aren’t getting. Far too many people are still stuck in minimum- or low-wage jobs, with part time hours, and no benefits. Those people likely outnumber the ones who are better off now, which is what matters in elections. > Americans’ paychecks have [gotten bigger](https://www.axios.com/2023/07/07/june-jobs-report-economy) in the last two years, but not enough to keep up with inflation. Now, lower inflation means the average worker is seeing rising purchasing power. > > **By the numbers:** Real average hourly earnings are up 1.2% in the 12 months ended in June, the Labor Department [said Wednesday](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm) following the release of the latest inflation data. > > - It had ticked higher in May, but before that had been in negative territory for nearly two years, as workers’ raises were not enough to keep up with sky-high inflation. > - For production and nonsupervisory workers, that number was even stronger, with a 2.2% year-over-year gain in real average hourly earnings. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2023, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/16 "2023-08-21T17:44:49Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > Real average hourly earnings are up 1.2% in the 12 months ended in June, the Labor Department [said Wednesday](https://www.bls.gov/news.release/realer.nr0.htm) following the release of the latest inflation data. Your own cite is claiming that real wages are up 1.2% for the 12 months ended in June. That’s the growth above inflation. And, your cite also has this: > [@Horatius](#): > > For production and nonsupervisory workers, that number was even stronger, with a 2.2% year-over-year gain in real average hourly earnings. So, those are real workers, not just management and CEOs. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2023, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/17 "2023-08-21T17:52:18Z")
> [@RitterSport](#): > > Your own cite is claiming that real wages are up 1.2% for the 12 months ended in June. That’s the growth above inflation. Yes, but 1.2% of what? That average hourly wage is still only just barely above $11/hr. That means a whole lot of people are making less than that. > **[Average hourly earnings U.S. 2023 | Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/216259/monthly-real-average-hourly-earnings-for-all-employees-in-the-us/)** > > Real average hourly wages in the U.S. mostly decreased over the course of the last year. Picking up again in July, they have yet to return to previous highs. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2023, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/18 "2023-08-21T17:55:51Z")
I agree that there’s lots of inequality in America. However, I disagree that the current economy is bad or that wages are stagnating right now. It’s amazing to me that, even on this quite liberal site, the perception of the economy is so bad. The economy is so red-hot that the Fed can’t slow it down even with record increases in short-term rates. The 10 year treasury is hitting new recent highs today, because the market is perceiving less of a risk. So, perception is a big issue, for sure, but the reality is that it’s a good economy, with falling inflation and rising real wages. ---
**Author:** ![Omar\_Little](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/omar_little/32/269_2.png) [@Omar\_Little](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omar_Little)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2023, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/19 "2023-08-21T18:02:45Z")
> [@RitterSport](#): > > This appears to be false. The chart at this [cite](https://www.conference-board.org/topics/labor-markets-charts/working-age-population-growth) seems to show continued growth in the working age population. The forecasted growth in working age population per the chart in your link is highly dependent upon net migration into the US. That alone is a huge assumption. And given Congress’s hesitancy to touch our immigration laws, highly suspect. Without it the working age population is expected to continue to decline into the 2030’s. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [August 21, 2023, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/20 "2023-08-21T18:04:43Z")
> [@RitterSport](#): > > However, I disagree that the current economy is bad or that wages are stagnating right now. > > It’s amazing to me that, even on this quite liberal site, the perception of the economy is so bad. The economy is so red-hot that the Fed can’t slow it down even with record increases in short-term rates. The 10 year treasury is hitting new recent highs today, because the market is perceiving less of a risk. I’m not saying that the economy is actually bad, I’m explaining why so many people can still legitimately think that the economy is bad. Do you really think that people working at McDonalds, or pissing in bottles at an Amazon warehouse, are thinking about what the Fed or the market is doing when they wonder about the size of their paycheck? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866.md?page=2)