# It's the economy stupid **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 21, 2023, 3:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866 "2023-08-21T15:08:34Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 5:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/181 "2023-12-26T17:48:40Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > One heck of a lot of people spend money at holidays that they _really_ can’t afford. The emotional mind overrules the rational a LOT when it comes to holiday spending. Aided and abetted of course by rampant advertising. You are correct of course. And the RW media is doing all the advertising it can to appeal to the emotional minds to make them think the economy is terrible when it is in fact quite qood and improving. That’s what I’m seeing anyway. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/182 "2023-12-26T18:02:59Z")
Christmas spending is a poor proxy for overall economic health. This seems more important: > **[Household Debt and Credit Report](https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomics/hhdc)** > > Unique data and insight into the credit conditions and activity of U.S. households Household debt at record highs. Credit card debt at record highs. Non-housing debt at record highs. Housing debt at record highs. Delinquencies rising. Government deficits and debt at record highs. You can make an economy look better than it is if you spend like a drunken sailor, which is what we have been doing. However, what can’t continue, won’t. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/183 "2023-12-26T18:11:43Z")
That doesn’t explain why people consider the economy right now to be bad, which is what this thread is about. In fact, it may indicate that folks are expecting raises, etc. Do you have any sort of cite that says that Christmas spending doesn’t reflect economic health? Certainly, it improves the economic health of retailers, manufacturers, importers, and consumers who work at those places. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 6:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/184 "2023-12-26T18:28:40Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > if you spend like a drunken sailor Oh . . . you mean spend like a Republican. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/185 "2023-12-26T18:29:11Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Government deficits and debt at record highs. The federal deficit is down considerably from the past few years as you well know, which I suspect is behind your specific phrasing. And a considerable amount of that involves servicing the significant amount of debt added during the previous administration, which strangely Republicans didn’t seem to care about. > [@](#): > > You can make an economy look better than it is if you spend like a drunken sailor, which is what we have been doing. Or your economy can look strong because you have low unemployment, a manufacturing boom, and controlled inflation, which is what we have. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/186 "2023-12-26T18:30:25Z")
Christmas spending strikes me as emotionally based - a statement about how willing people are to spend money on a specific event at a specific moment in time. It could be because they feel wealthier, or it could be because their willingness to go into debt has changed, or it could be because they have confidence in their future income, or probably other complex reasons. I gave lots of reasons earlier why people might not feel the economy is working for them. One thing is sure: When 84% of people are telling you the economy is bad, you don’t just have a messaging problem. A better idea might be to really dive in to why they feel that way. Maybe you are missing something they are feeling. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 6:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/187 "2023-12-26T18:32:31Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > When 84% of people are telling you the economy is bad, you don’t just have a messaging problem. A better idea might be to really dive in to why they feel that way. Maybe you are missing something they are feeling. I think this was a notable cause for Clinton losing to Trump in 2016. She thought the economy was fine mostly but a great many people were not feeling it. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/188 "2023-12-26T18:33:34Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > Or your economy can look strong because you have low unemployment, a manufacturing boom, and controlled inflation, which is what we have. Okay. Let’s just ignore all the bad stuff, repeat the good stuff, say the electorate must be stupid and ignore the signals they are sending you. That should work out fine. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/189 "2023-12-26T18:35:29Z")
> [@crowmanyclouds](#): > > Oh . . . you mean spend like a Republican. Sick burn, dude. Irrelevant and useless, but sick. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/190 "2023-12-26T18:37:33Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Household debt at record highs. Scarying-sounding talking points like these are incredibly stupid, because pretty much everything measured in simple $ terms is pretty much always at record highs, because of economic expansion and inflation. It’s like saying the price of a loaf of bread is at record highs. Of course it is. Deflation would be an economic disaster. Try the household debt to GDP ratio - 80% when Trump left office, now 73%. > **[U.S. household debt to GDP ratio 2023 | Statista](https://www.statista.com/statistics/248283/household-debt-ratio-to-gdp-in-the-united-states/)** > > In early 2023, household debt amounted to 73 percent of the GDP in the U.S. Those figures were lower than in the previous year. I’m not going to pick apart all your talking points, but this is the most egregious: > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Government deficits and debt at record highs. > > You can make an economy look better than it is if you spend like a drunken sailor, which is what we have been doing. However, what can’t continue, won’t. Do we really need to remind you that what _actually_ happens to the deficit under Republican administrations is the exact opposite of what they _pretend_ happens? Here’s a nice snapshot of the economic record of Democrat vs Republican adminstrations. [https://presidentialdata.org/](https://presidentialdata.org/) > # Since World War 2 > > - **Ten** of the last **eleven recessions** have begun under Republican Presidents > - Since WW2, The US Economy has been in a recession for nearly 10 times as many months under Republican Presidents versus Democratic Presidents (_113 months vs 11 months_) > - More than twice as many jobs are created per year under Democratic Presidents than Republican Presidents ( **2.1 million jobs/year** under Democratic Presidents versus **828,000 jobs/year** under Republican Presidents.) > - **Budget deficits** as a percentage of GDP under Republican Presidents are collectively **9% higher** than under Democratic Presidents > > # Since 1961 > > - **GDP growth** has been **44% higher** under Democratic Presidents. > - **Business Investment Growth** has been **132% higher** under Democratic Presidents. > - **Unemployment** has been **5% higher** under Republican Presidents. > - Average increase in **weekly earnings** have been **positive** under Democratic Presidents and **negative** under Republican Presidents ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/191 "2023-12-26T18:37:56Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Irrelevant and useless Remind me? Which party is the _raise taxes and spend_ party and which is the _cut taxes and spend_ party? ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/192 "2023-12-26T18:46:00Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > You can make an economy look better than it is if you spend like a drunken sailor, which is what we have been doing. However, what can’t continue, won’t. “We”? ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/193 "2023-12-26T18:58:26Z")
Democrats obviously. Bush and Trump were notable for being frugal. Surely, if Trump wins in 2024, we can look forward to a balanced budget and lowering of the national debt. He’s absolutely the kind of guy who will get into government accounting and set it right. /s ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/194 "2023-12-26T19:03:22Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > He’s absolutely the kind of guy who will get into government accounting and set it right. /s That, but also that it sounds odd still when a Canadian looking at US issues tell us that it is a “we” problem. ---
**Author:** ![RitterSport](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rittersport/32/6326_2.png) [@RitterSport](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RitterSport)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 7:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/195 "2023-12-26T19:08:58Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Christmas spending strikes me as emotionally based - a statement about how willing people are to spend money on a specific event at a specific moment in time. It could be because they feel wealthier, or it could be because their willingness to go into debt has changed, or it could be because they have confidence in their future income, or probably other complex reasons. OK, well, LMK if you find a cite that Christmas spending is inversely proportional to how people think their own situation is going. As I’ve written several times in this thread, people are _saying_ that the economy is bad but _acting_ like it’s just fine for then. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 7:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/196 "2023-12-26T19:24:40Z")
> [@RitterSport](#): > > As I’ve written several times in this thread, people are _saying_ that the economy is bad but _acting_ like it’s just fine for then. I get what you are saying but such cognitive disconnects are not new in the US. Many will tell you how awful the illegal immigration problem is but have probably never seen an illegal immigrant in their life. Or all the transgendered people being creepy in public bathrooms but they have never met a singe trans person in their life. We can find lots of examples. I am doing fine but, I admit, when I see chicken wings in the store going for $5/lb I cringe (I remember them being half that not too long ago…like 2020). That’s just one example…lots of things are like that. ---
**Author:** ![Disinfectus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/disinfectus/32/11085_2.png) [@Disinfectus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Disinfectus)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/197 "2023-12-26T19:36:49Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > One thing is sure: When 84% of people are telling you the economy is bad, you don’t just have a messaging problem. Actually, you do have a messaging problem if a large chunk are telling you the economy is bad simply because it has been drilled into their head by watching Fox every day. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/198 "2023-12-26T19:42:21Z")
You really think messaging is so strong that 84% of the people can be swayed from reality by Fox News? Fox’s top shows get less than 3 million viewers - less than 1% of the country. Political junkies like us tend to have a very distorted view of how much Americans actualloy pay attention to this stuff. Lots of Americans can’t name their own Congressperson, may not know who their governor is, and only pay attention to politics around election season. The left has been pushing various narratives for years that went nowhere or backwards: “The Great Reset”, “Build Back Better”, etc. Are the Republicans so much better at messaging that Fox News can convince 84% of the people to ignore what they are seeing with their own eyes? ---
**Author:** ![Ruken](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f475e1/32.png) [@Ruken](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ruken)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/199 "2023-12-26T19:43:24Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > This seems more important: It’s not. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [December 26, 2023, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866/200 "2023-12-26T19:45:37Z")
Well okay then. It’s hard to argue with logic like that. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/its-the-economy-stupid/988866.md?page=11)