# Ivan **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [September 7, 2004, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540 "2004-09-07T21:08:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Bruce\_Daddy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/85f322/32.png) [@Bruce\_Daddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bruce_Daddy)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/1 "2004-09-07T21:08:02Z")
I wanted to wait until the 5p (Sep 7) NOAA advisory and discussion before this thread. It now look inevitable, [almost all the tracking models](http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html) bring Ivan to Florida. The discussion is not promising either: > [@](#): > > NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL > 5 PM EDT TUE SEP 07 2004 > > AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE JUST MEASURED A PRESSURE OF 956 MB > WITH A DROP AND 955 MB EXTRAPOLATED FROM 700 MB. IT ALSO MEASURED > 118 KNOTS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND A CLOSED EYEWALL OF 14 NMI DIAMETER. > T-NUMBERS REMAIN AT 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. INITIAL INTENSITY IS > 105 KNOTS. SHIPS MODEL INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN LOW OVER > THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. GLOBAL MODELS APPEAR TO SHOW A > FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING. **IN > ADDITION…IVAN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA > WHERE THERE IS AN AREA OF HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT…HIGH OCTANE GAS > FOR HURRICANES…WHICH COULD ADD TO THE INTENSIFICATION.** IVAN > COULD BECOME STRONGER THAN FORECAST. INDICATIONS ARE THAT THERE > WILL BE A VERY DANGEROUS HURRICANE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN > SEA…WESTERN CUBA OR SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO IN FIVE DAYS. > > THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING AND IVAN IS STILL MOVING > TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS > EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER…THE FORECAST > BECOMES UNCERTAIN. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A TROUGH OVER > THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS TROUGH IS > FORECAST TO ERODE THE RIDGE LEAVING A LARGE AREA OF WEAK STEERING > CURRENTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF > MEXICO. BY THEN…THE HURRICANE COULD MOVE NORTH OVER WESTERN CUBA > AND SOUTH FLORIDA AS INDICATED BY THE GFS…THE UK AND NOGAPS…OR > CONTINUE ON A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL > AND THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. THE LATTER ASSUMES THAT THE TROUGH IN > THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER THE HURRICANE > NORTHWARD…AND THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH RIDGING TO STEER THE > HURRICANE TOWARD WESTERN CUBA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL > FORECAST IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER OPTION BIASED TOWARD THE > CONSENSUS. Sucks to be Florida these days. ---
**Author:** ![Stillsmiling](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c67d28/32.png) [@Stillsmiling](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stillsmiling)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/2 "2004-09-07T21:27:41Z")
:eek: That orange line has him coming right for me! Jerk!! He’s really moving fast. 3 named storms in a 30 day period has to be some sort of record. [whine] I don’t wanna lose my electricity again. [/whine] And to add insult to injury, when they resumed mail delivery after Charley, my electric bill came. There I was, sitting in the dark with an FPL bill in my hand. Injustice! ---
**Author:** ![Skywatcher](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skywatcher/32/254_2.png) [@Skywatcher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skywatcher)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 9:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/3 "2004-09-07T21:56:21Z")
Ivan now? Crazy. ---
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 11:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/4 "2004-09-07T23:22:15Z")
> [@Jeff Olsen](#): > > Ivan now? Crazy. No. Crazy Ivan! Watch him change direction at the bottom of the hour until he hits Florida. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/5 "2004-09-07T23:34:25Z")
I’m about sick of these stupid things. But please note the large disclaimer on the linked site: > [@](#): > > \*\* > Computer models subject to large errors. > Do not use for planning purposes\*\* ---
**Author:** ![Carm6773](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/2bfe46/32.png) [@Carm6773](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Carm6773)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 11:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/6 "2004-09-07T23:35:42Z")
The blue line brings him right in my area :(. I still have wet carpet from Frances, so maybe we need to get some politicians (since they are full of hot air) to scream… GO AWAY, IVAN!!! I’ve lived in FL all my life (31 years), and Frances was the first storm I experienced from beginning to end. I have NEVER seen this many storms cross FL in one hurricane season. ---
**Author:** ![Slainte](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a698b9/32.png) [@Slainte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Slainte)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2004, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/7 "2004-09-07T23:46:34Z")
Just posting to send all you Floridopers some good vibes. Stay away, Ivan. ---
**Author:** ![Casey1505](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/dc4da7/32.png) [@Casey1505](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Casey1505)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2004, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/8 "2004-09-08T01:55:49Z")
Unreal. Any more rain, and your population is gonna start to get all wrinkly. ---
**Author:** ![Antigen](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/848f3c/32.png) [@Antigen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Antigen)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2004, 2:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/9 "2004-09-08T02:31:36Z")
> [@Bruce\_Daddy](#): > > Sucks to be Florida these days. What did you guys DO to bring the wrath of Og down on you like this? I hope you’re all managing to stay somewhat warm and dry through all this mess. We’re thinking of you. ---
**Author:** ![TeaElle](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8491ac/32.png) [@TeaElle](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeaElle)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2004, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/10 "2004-09-08T02:35:29Z")
And this is why Mr. TeaElle and I will spend our sunshine years in Arizona. Or maybe Vegas. Sucks to be y’all. Hope that “sunshine” is worth it. Btw, is it just me, or is it just the height of folly to live in a mobile home in a state that has some form of tropical storm activity every year? ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2004, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/11 "2004-09-08T02:59:57Z")
the track has ivan going a bit more south. he is heading for the a b c islands off so. america. they seem to have him tracking into the gulf after that, with the keys in the far north of the track. texas may want to take a close look at the track. ---
**Author:** ![Bruce\_Daddy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/85f322/32.png) [@Bruce\_Daddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bruce_Daddy)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2004, 3:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/12 "2004-09-08T03:08:38Z")
[Still looks like Florida.](http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_model.html) And still [strong](http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at200409.disc.html): > [@](#): > > Regardless of the exact ups and Downs in the > intensity…Ivan is expected to remain a strong hurricane through > the forecast period…most likely category 4 but possibly reaching > category 5 at some points. ---
**Author:** ![ivylass](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/9de053/32.png) [@ivylass](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivylass)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2004, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/13 "2004-09-08T12:23:34Z")
[http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/061453W5.gif](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/061453W5.gif) I can’t take this anymore. Three in six weeks? What the hell did you guys do to piss of the Weather Gods? I know I didn’t do anything!!! :eek: ---
**Author:** ![Stillsmiling](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c67d28/32.png) [@Stillsmiling](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Stillsmiling)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2004, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/14 "2004-09-08T18:58:15Z")
> [@Casey1505](#): > > Unreal. > > Any more rain, and your population is gonna start to get all wrinkly. Too late! 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Eva\_Luna](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/e495f1/32.png) [@Eva\_Luna](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eva_Luna)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2004, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/15 "2004-09-08T20:20:43Z")
> [@Duckster](#): > > No. Crazy Ivan! Hopefully not Ivan the Terrible. Especially since I’m due to make my second trip in the past 3 weeks to South Florida next week, for Rosh Hashanah. The last one was for my grandfather’s funeral, after which my grandmother’s assisted living facility was evacuated for Frances, so she couldn’t go home for almost a week. Sucks to be Florida, indeed. That’s why the damn airline tickets were so cheap. Who the hell goes to Florida by choice, in hurricane season? I must be nuts. ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2004, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/16 "2004-09-08T21:14:13Z")
We’ve put it to a vote and decided to send this one on to Texas. Sorry, Texans, that’s a democracy for you. Next time you’ll have to exercise your franchise rights. **Eva** , which part of our soggy, mosquito ridden abode (with lovely birds) are you going to be visiting? ---
**Author:** ![misstee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/958977/32.png) [@misstee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/misstee)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2004, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/17 "2004-09-08T21:55:53Z")
> [@ivylass](#): > > I can’t take this anymore. Three in six weeks? What the hell did you guys do to piss of the Weather Gods? I know I didn’t do anything!!! :eek: I have been told that if you send $1,000,000 to a certin Iowa chick the Weather Gods will smile upon you again. I’d take that in small bills please Seriously, I am watching and hoping for the best for you Floridopers. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2004, 10:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/18 "2004-09-08T22:13:57Z")
The strange thing is that I’ve been watching the NOAA site and refreshing every now and again to see if there are updates. Unfortunately I can’t find a way to reference the old image, but at 2:33 it was targeted (the main red line) directly at the Mississippi river delta area. Now, in the 5:13 pm version it suddenly is forecast to make a hook turn and head straight over my house. I’ve lost 30-40% of my business each week that the hurricanes have been around, from cancellations, not to mention the lack of new business. These things are really getting to be a pain. ---
**Author:** ![harmless](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/2acd7d/32.png) [@harmless](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/harmless)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2004, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/19 "2004-09-08T22:14:55Z")
: meekly raises her hand : It was me. I’m sorry. ☹ I didn’t mean to, but it just sort of happened. Never mind the details right now! Now the best way to appease the angered weather gods is to send me off, far, far away…to some remote destination so that they follow me. I suggest Hawaii. First class, of course. 😃 We’re not doing too bad here in Tallahassee. My mom & sis were without power for about two days though, and our store flooded a bit. ---
**Author:** ![rocking\_chair](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rocking_chair/32/2918_2.png) [@rocking\_chair](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rocking_chair)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2004, 1:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/20 "2004-09-09T01:18:22Z")
following ivan is like following the scarlet pimpernel. he’s here, he’s there, he’s everywhere. about the only thing that seems certain is that it will hit the states at some point. the discussion on noaa mentions steering current problems. some models showing gulf of mexico and others florida. the weather channel mentioned possibilities from the gulf coasts to the carolinas. ivan knocked out a westerly shear today. that isn’t good news. interesting to see on sat. but not good news. ivan is keeping everyone guessing. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540.md?page=2)