# Ivan **URL:** \ **Category:** Miscellaneous and Personal Stuff I Must Share\ **Created:** [September 7, 2004, 9:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540 "2004-09-07T21:08:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![ladybug](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/46a35a/32.png) [@ladybug](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ladybug)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2004, 8:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/41 "2004-09-09T20:55:53Z")
> [@Morgyn](#): > > Beat the rush and evacuate now? ☹ I thought about that, but I’ve already missed more than a week of work because of Frances. (I’m working from home today because my office is still without power. That’s why I can play here during the day. :)) Unless Ivan is heading straight for us, my coworkers and I need to stay local. Besides, I wouldn’t know where to go at this point. ::looks at watch and anxiously awaits 5 p.m. update:: ---
**Author:** ![Bruce\_Daddy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/85f322/32.png) [@Bruce\_Daddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bruce_Daddy)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2004, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/42 "2004-09-09T21:12:18Z")
> [@ladybug](#): > > Besides, I wouldn’t know where to go at this point. ::looks at watch and anxiously awaits 5 p.m. update:: A little west of the last one. Not very promising. Sorry ☹ ---
**Author:** ![pestie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/e5b9ba/32.png) [@pestie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pestie)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2004, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/43 "2004-09-09T21:34:05Z")
I’m in west central Florida and I’ve been lucky so far. Charlie missed me completely and although Frances hit me pretty directly, it only caused minor inconveniences (loss of phone and internet access, not even loss of power). But Ivan’s starting to look pretty threatening and I might not be so lucky next time. But you know what? I _still_ prefer this to New England winters. ---
**Author:** ![asterion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/4da419/32.png) [@asterion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asterion)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2004, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/44 "2004-09-09T22:58:12Z")
> [@ladybug](#): > > Besides, I wouldn’t know where to go at this point. I hear Europe is nice this time of year. ---
**Author:** ![TroubleAgain](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e480ec/32.png) [@TroubleAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroubleAgain)\ **Post date:** [September 9, 2004, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/45 "2004-09-09T23:38:41Z")
> [@ShibbOleth](#): > > I’d seriously consider changing your address or your eerily appropriate username. :eek: :eek: :eek: You know, I never thought of that! Am I a trouble magnet? Trouble is actually my cat, but I suppose it’s possible someone mistook my screen name for an actual invitation or request! Oh, lord! :eek: ---
**Author:** ![ccwaterback](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/df705f/32.png) [@ccwaterback](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ccwaterback)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2004, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/46 "2004-09-10T00:30:37Z")
Tomorrow many people will die in Jamaica. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Polycarp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/82dd89/32.png) [@Polycarp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polycarp)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2004, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/47 "2004-09-10T02:45:25Z")
> [@swampbear](#): > > I’m here in southwest Georgia blowing as hard as I can. Uh, may I clarify what **Trouble Again** meant by that term! 😉 ============= Seriously, Ivan was at the last report I saw (6:00 PM) a maximum Category 4, just below Category 5, headed directly for Jamaica, and with a cone of potential paths that targets Florida again. Central line of the trajectory options brings it up across the Keys and off the southwest coast of the peninsula, making landfall somewhere in the Tampa Bay area. And the warm water of the Gulf is likely to cause it to strengthen if it moves along anywhere in the western 65% of the potential paths. This could be absolutely horrible! ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Nightwatch\_Trailer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/9dc877/32.png) [@Nightwatch\_Trailer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nightwatch_Trailer)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2004, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/48 "2004-09-10T03:26:26Z")
Good _night_ - Grenada took a [beating](http://news.independent.co.uk/world/americas/story.jsp?story=560056). _90 percent_ of the island’s buildings were destroyed. Good luck to all the Floridopers and any Caribbeanites we have. This string of storms is unbelievable… ---
**Author:** ![Bruce\_Daddy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/85f322/32.png) [@Bruce\_Daddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bruce_Daddy)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2004, 1:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/49 "2004-09-10T13:18:07Z")
I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that it’s probably going to hit [Florida](http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti2.asp) Call me crazy. ---
**Author:** ![TroubleAgain](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/e480ec/32.png) [@TroubleAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TroubleAgain)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2004, 3:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/50 "2004-09-10T15:54:10Z")
::sigh:: ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Bambi\_Hassenpfeffer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Bambi\_Hassenpfeffer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bambi_Hassenpfeffer)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2004, 3:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/51 "2004-09-10T15:57:44Z")
> [@Bruce\_Daddy](#): > > I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that it’s probably going to hit [Florida](http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti2.asp) > > Call me crazy. Yeah, and the official track put out by the National Hurricane Center at 11a has it passing right over my house. Yesterday, it was 50 miles west; the day before, it was 50 miles east. Translation: “We’re not certain exactly _how_ screwed you are, but you’re screwed.” If you look at the 11a [map](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/101453W5.gif) and look at that little green spot southeast of the last H, that’s where I live. However, this map will change at 5, and I cannot link to the old one – the NHC uses the same URL for the map, even as it changes. We’ve already boarded up the house and reserved a hotel room in Jacksonville, so we’re as ready as we can be for Round 3. ---
**Author:** ![Bambi\_Hassenpfeffer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/bbe5ce/32.png) [@Bambi\_Hassenpfeffer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bambi_Hassenpfeffer)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2004, 4:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/52 "2004-09-10T16:10:57Z")
Oh, and the best thing about the current ‘skirting up the west coast’ track is that it keeps the eye out to sea so that the storm keeps its strength up while simultaneously keeping the strongest side of the storm over land _and_ ensuring that the prevailing currents in the storm work to push the water up into all of our bays and waterways – almost all of which on the west coast are open to the south. This is pretty much the worst-case scenario for flood and wind damage in west coastal Florida. ---
**Author:** ![ivylass](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/9de053/32.png) [@ivylass](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivylass)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2004, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/53 "2004-09-10T16:51:19Z")
I’m here. TPTB at work decided we needed to get ahead, so we did about a week and a half of work in four days. My department kicked ass. I bought more ice and charcoal, and we’re just going to batten down and hang on. ---
**Author:** ![Philster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/13edae/32.png) [@Philster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Philster)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2004, 4:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/54 "2004-09-10T16:52:24Z")
When a trop cyclone moves north, the bad side is the east, but at 145 mph, whether the winds are 145 on the east or 125 on the west, it’s bad. At NOAA, some clouds hid the eye, but they’ve cleared and it looks even more defined. Interesting: longest a hurricane held a Cat 5 rating = 2.2 days ---
**Author:** ![ivylass](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/9de053/32.png) [@ivylass](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ivylass)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2004, 5:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/55 "2004-09-10T17:05:08Z")
[This](http://a.www.orlandoweather.com/index.html) is a cool site. Click on Storm Tracker in the interactive section (you can find it under the Ivan info) and you can track the path of past hurricanes. Betsy (under historical hurricanes) actually went _backwards_ and hit Miami! ---
**Author:** ![ShibbOleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/848f3c/32.png) [@ShibbOleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ShibbOleth)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2004, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/56 "2004-09-10T17:19:45Z")
> [@Bambi Hassenpfeffer](#): > > Yeah, and the official track put out by the National Hurricane Center at 11a has it passing right over my house. Yesterday, it was 50 miles west; the day before, it was 50 miles east. Translation: “We’re not certain exactly _how_ screwed you are, but you’re screwed.” If you look at the 11a [map](http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0904W5+GIF/101453W5.gif) and look at that little green spot southeast of the last H, that’s where I live. If you look at the same map and notice the tip of the arrow that just sticks out of the right of the “H”, that’s my house. If **Bambi** goes down we’re going down with him. And I’ve already got customers calling to cancel service for next week. If the rain and wind don’t destroy me they’re going to bankrupt me. ---
**Author:** ![XJETGIRLX](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/9fc29f/32.png) [@XJETGIRLX](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XJETGIRLX)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2004, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/57 "2004-09-10T17:44:25Z")
FYI: [http://www.floridadisaster.org/](http://www.floridadisaster.org/) is the Florida Division of Emergency Management site. They have live updates on road closings and traffic information available as well as shelter status, evacuation routes and emergency hotlines. ---
**Author:** ![Polycarp](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/82dd89/32.png) [@Polycarp](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Polycarp)\ **Post date:** [September 10, 2004, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/58 "2004-09-10T17:59:16Z")
[Five-Day Forecast Map](http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_5day.html) [Strike Probability Map](http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200409_strike.html) > [@](#): > > Hurricane Ivan Intermediate Advisory Number 33a > Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on September 10, 2004 > > …Winds should begin to increase soon in Jamaica…preparations to protect life and property should have already been completed. > > A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. > > A Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning remain in effect for the entire southwest peninsula of Haiti from the border of the Dominican Republic westward…including Port au Prince. > > A Hurricane Watch is in effect for entire Cuba including the Isle of Youth. A Tropical Storm Warning for the South Coast of eastern Cuba from Cabo cruz to Santiago de Cuba. > > Interests in central and western Caribbean Sea should closely monitor the progress of dangerous Hurricane Ivan. > > At 2 PM EDT…1800z…the eye of Hurricane Ivan was located near latitude 16.8 north…longitude 75.8 west or about 85 miles… 140 km…south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica. > > Ivan is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph…19 km/hr. This motion is expected to bring the core of Ivan to near Jamaica tonight or early Saturday. > > Maximum sustained winds are near 145 mph…230 km/hr…with higher gusts. Stronger winds…especially in gusts…are likely over elevated terrain. Some fluctuations in intensity are likely during the next 24 hours. > > Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 60 miles…95 km… from the center…and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles…280 km. > > Estimated minimum central pressure by a reconnaissance plane was 939 mb…27.73 inches. > > Storm surge flooding of 5 to 8 feet above normal tide levels… along with large and dangerous battering waves…can be expected near the center of Ivan in the Hurricane Warning area. > > Rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches…possibly causing life-threatening flash floods and mud slides…can be expected along the path of Ivan. > > Repeating the 2 PM EDT position…16.8 N… 75.8 W. Movement toward…west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds…145 mph. Minimum central pressure… 939 mb. > > For storm information specific to your area…please monitor products issued by your local weather office. > > The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 5 PM EDT. > > Forecaster Avila ---
**Author:** ![JillGat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9fc29f/32.png) [@JillGat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JillGat)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2004, 7:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/59 "2004-09-11T07:17:31Z")
> [@Bruce\_Daddy](#): > > Sucks to be Florida these days. I beg your pardon. Most people in Florida have some kind of insurance, or at least a govt. infrastructure that assures that they will get some support and aid. It really sucks to be a Grenadian or, probably, a Jamaican, with Ivan in the Caribbean. Sorry, i don’t feel as sorry for Americans (even my father, who lives in West Palm Beach). These people in Grenada, Tobago, and soon probably Jamaica are being devastated by these storms. They are losing everything they have, facing disease epidemics, looters, and other challenges most Americans can’t even fathom. They are the ones who deserve our prayers and assistance. ---
**Author:** ![Dan\_Turk](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/439d5e/32.png) [@Dan\_Turk](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dan_Turk)\ **Post date:** [September 11, 2004, 7:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540/60 "2004-09-11T07:54:14Z")
oh, I see… we can only hope and pray for one group, and due to the limited amounts of money that the US clearly has(with our charge it now and care later attitude…), I see how we can’t assist anyone else either :rolleyes: Oh yeah, I’m taking my fishin poles to jacksonville, might as well make something of it… [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/ivan/263540.md?page=4)