# Jahdra the magical earthquake predictor **URL:** \ **Category:** The BBQ Pit\ **Created:** [September 3, 2007, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891 "2007-09-03T11:17:54Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![zuma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9c0ed/32.png) [@zuma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zuma)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2007, 11:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891/1 "2007-09-03T11:17:54Z")
If we’re to fight ignorance, let’s take a look at this gem from Jahdra: In a [thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=435105) about earthquake experiences, Jahdra claims to be able to[predict earthquakes 2 seconds to 1 night in advance!](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showpost.php?p=8941765&postcount=30) > [@Jahdra](#): > > I’ve also been blessed with a 2 second warning system, in that I know one’s coming about 2 seconds before it hits. I have just enough time to think “Earthquake’s coming” before one hits, so they’re not a complete surprise. I knew the Loma Prieta was coming the night before, though, so who knows? (One of the reasons we didn’t lose anything then was because I got up in the middle of the night before to put the breakables away.) Jahdra, you are full of shit. Knock it off. ---
**Author:** ![Xema](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/x/9de053/32.png) [@Xema](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Xema)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2007, 1:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891/2 "2007-09-03T13:34:30Z")
A “2-second warning” is probably just awareness of initial small shocks. ---
**Author:** ![zuma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9c0ed/32.png) [@zuma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zuma)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2007, 2:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891/3 "2007-09-03T14:14:14Z")
But what about the 12-hour vision of loma prieta? ---
**Author:** ![zuma](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/e9c0ed/32.png) [@zuma](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/zuma)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2007, 2:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891/4 "2007-09-03T14:19:40Z")
Even if magical Jahdra has a 2-second forshadowing, this “night before” is bullshit. The “night before” is what, 18 hours before the actual 5:04 p.m. quake? He’s lying. Jahdra does not have supernatural powers. Jahdra is either lying or he’s crazy. ---
**Author:** ![Contrapuntal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e274bd/32.png) [@Contrapuntal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Contrapuntal)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2007, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891/5 "2007-09-03T14:29:48Z")
[QUOTE=zuma] Even if magical Jahdra has a 2-second forshadowing, this “night before” is bullshit. The “night before” is what, 18 hours before the actual 5:04 p.m. quake? He’s lying. Jahdra does not have supernatural powers. Jahdra is either lying or he’s crazy. [/QUOTE] And stupid. Why hang around when you have advance warning of an earthquake? You can get very far away in 18 hours. ---
**Author:** ![SpaceDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spacedog/32/9932_2.png) [@SpaceDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpaceDog)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2007, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891/6 "2007-09-03T14:33:11Z")
Eh, you’re being a little quick off the mark here. Whilst I’ve have no doubt that **Jahdra** has no supernatural powers there doesn’t seem to be any reason to jump all over them like that. Two seconds seems perfectly reasonable to pick up on not-completely-obvious clues that an earthquake is coming, particularly if you’ve experienced more than one and know what the feeling means. The overnight thing is clearly bollocks but that’s not an excuse to pit them. It’s most likely confirmation bias, it would have been a bit more polite to encourage them to think of all the times that they’ve predicated and earthquake and it hasn’t happened. I guess I just don’t really get why you needed a whole new thread just to correct someone that’s (probably) simply deluded. Fighting ignorance, not shouting it down. Of course if **Jahdra** wanders in and turns out to be a complete woo-woo fruitloop then I’m going to look silly, but we’ll see. SD ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2007, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891/7 "2007-09-03T18:02:01Z")
Two seconds is not a “foreshadowing”. It’s feeling the p-waves that come just before the s-waves in any earthquake. Depending on the stability of the soil your abode is sitting on, the height off the ground, and the type of structure, you may or may not feet the initial p-waves. ---
**Author:** ![Anne\_Neville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Anne\_Neville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Anne_Neville)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2007, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891/8 "2007-09-03T18:13:47Z")
[QUOTE=Chefguy] Two seconds is not a “foreshadowing”. It’s feeling the p-waves that come just before the s-waves in any earthquake. Depending on the stability of the soil your abode is sitting on, the height off the ground, and the type of structure, you may or may not feet the initial p-waves. [/QUOTE] Or, if you have glasses hanging from a rack, you might hear the p-waves. I have a wine rack with hanging glasses, and the glasses would clink shortly before some earthquakes. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Blue-Sighted\_Shadow](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ecae2f/32.png) [@The\_Blue-Sighted\_Shadow](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Blue-Sighted_Shadow)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2007, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891/9 "2007-09-03T19:52:57Z")
**SpaceDog’s** right about confirmation bias. I was sleeping on the floor then, so I probably felt the pre-shocks, which triggered the “get all the breakables down” in the middle of the night. I felt awfully stupid the next morning when nothing had happened. It was equally likely that nothing more would happen, but since it did - confirmation bias. It didn’t belong in my post. I do hear/feel something before an earthquake, most of the time, but not always. I’ve always known that whatever I’m sensing is what is already happening, not a “prediction.” No one can predict earthquakes yet, beyond a general “this fault is going to go in the next x hundred/thousand years.” It’s a sensation, not really hearing or feeling, but both and different. It’s always meant “earthquake” to me. I’ve never taken it to GQ because I was afraid of, you know, being thought a loony tune. Now I know it’s p-waves. Ignorance fought. ---
**Author:** ![Mama\_Tiger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/6de8d8/32.png) [@Mama\_Tiger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mama_Tiger)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2007, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891/10 "2007-09-03T19:55:35Z")
And for those who care, **Jahdra** is a she, not a him or a them. :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2007, 8:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891/11 "2007-09-03T20:48:46Z")
[QUOTE=Jahdra] **SpaceDog’s** right about confirmation bias. I was sleeping on the floor then, so I probably felt the pre-shocks, which triggered the “get all the breakables down” in the middle of the night. I felt awfully stupid the next morning when nothing had happened. It was equally likely that nothing more would happen, but since it did - confirmation bias. It didn’t belong in my post. I do hear/feel something before an earthquake, most of the time, but not always. I’ve always known that whatever I’m sensing is what is already happening, not a “prediction.” No one can predict earthquakes yet, beyond a general “this fault is going to go in the next x hundred/thousand years.” It’s a sensation, not really hearing or feeling, but both and different. It’s always meant “earthquake” to me. I’ve never taken it to GQ because I was afraid of, you know, being thought a loony tune. Now I know it’s p-waves. Ignorance fought. [/QUOTE] I worked in a building here in Anchorage that was close to the mountains. A shake of any size was always preceded by what sounded like a sonic boom. It was just enough in advance of the shaking to be able to dive for cover. Haven’t heard it anywhere else, so I’m assuming that the mountains acted as some sort of amplifier. Very weird. ---
**Author:** ![Q.E.D](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/51bf81/32.png) [@Q.E.D](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Q.E.D)\ **Post date:** [September 3, 2007, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891/12 "2007-09-03T21:51:10Z")
[QUOTE=Mama Tiger] And for those who care, **Jahdra** is a she, not a him or a them. :rolleyes: [/QUOTE] How do you know? Maybe she really IS a giant ant. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![SpaceDog](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spacedog/32/9932_2.png) [@SpaceDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpaceDog)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2007, 10:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891/13 "2007-09-04T10:11:36Z")
[QUOTE=Mama Tiger] And for those who care, **Jahdra** is a she, not a him or a them. :rolleyes: [/QUOTE] Eh, help me fight my ignorance here. I thought it was acceptable to use ‘them’ when you weren’t sure if ‘him’ or ‘her’ was correct. Am I wrong? I should probably take this to a different thread. In any case I’m not sure you needed the rolling eyes there. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2007, 11:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891/14 "2007-09-04T11:02:15Z")
[QUOTE=SpaceDog] In any case I’m not sure you needed the rolling eyes there. [/QUOTE] Of course they did! :rolleyes: :rolleyes: 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Ponder\_Stibbons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ponder_stibbons/32/343_2.png) [@Ponder\_Stibbons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ponder_Stibbons)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2007, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891/15 "2007-09-04T16:18:10Z")
[QUOTE=SpaceDog] I thought it was acceptable to use ‘them’ when you weren’t sure if ‘him’ or ‘her’ was correct. [/QUOTE] That’s how _I_ do it. Because, as Q.E.D. points out, you never know when you’re conversing with a giant ant. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Kneepants\_Erasmus\_the\_Humanist](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/54ee81/32.png) [@Kneepants\_Erasmus\_the\_Humanist](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kneepants_Erasmus_the_Humanist)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2007, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891/16 "2007-09-04T16:34:01Z")
[QUOTE=Ponder Stibbons] That’s how _I_ do it. Because, as Q.E.D. points out, you never know when you’re conversing with a giant ant. 😛 [/QUOTE] Yeah, but if it were a giant ant, it would still be a “he” or “she”. Duh. :rolleyes: Sigh. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![Miller](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/miller/32/481_2.png) [@Miller](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Miller)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2007, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891/17 "2007-09-04T18:18:37Z")
[QUOTE=Contrapuntal] And stupid. Why hang around when you have advance warning of an earthquake? You can get very far away in 18 hours. [/QUOTE] Run? From an earthquake? That’s a bit of an overreaction, isn’t it? Just secure your valuables as best you can, go stand out in the street when the appointed hour rolls around, and you’ll be fine. ---
**Author:** ![Contrapuntal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/e274bd/32.png) [@Contrapuntal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Contrapuntal)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2007, 7:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891/18 "2007-09-04T19:21:26Z")
[QUOTE=Miller] Run? From an earthquake? That’s a bit of an overreaction, isn’t it? Just secure your valuables as best you can, go stand out in the street when the appointed hour rolls around, and you’ll be fine. [/QUOTE] I yield to the wisdom of the Left Coaster. Is it necessary to secure the family jewels while I am riding the asphalt anaconda, or can I just let it all hang out? ---
**Author:** ![SisterCoyote](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/958977/32.png) [@SisterCoyote](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SisterCoyote)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2007, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891/19 "2007-09-04T19:26:08Z")
[QUOTE=SpaceDog] Eh, help me fight my ignorance here. I thought it was acceptable to use ‘them’ when you weren’t sure if ‘him’ or ‘her’ was correct. Am I wrong? I should probably take this to a different thread. In any case I’m not sure you needed the rolling eyes there. [/QUOTE] Certain grammar prescriptivists, who believed (wrongly) that English should follow Latinate rules, have caused this confusion. “Them/they/their” is a perfectly acceptable singular pronoun, having been used as such all the way back in the 1500s (examples can be provided from Shakespeare and, as it turns out on a quick google search, [Jane Austin](http://www.crossmyt.com/hc/linghebr/austheir.html), though she’s more modern). [I’ve gotten in to this before](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=196889), and [The Master](http://www.straightdope.com/classics/a3_245b.html) has also had his say. hijack off. Edited to add: **Contrapuntal** , you do what you like with your family jewels while you’re out in the street waiting for the brick building to fall on you, just so long as you don’t scare the horses. As for me, I’ll probably be sleeping through the earthquake, so there you go. ---
**Author:** ![Ponder\_Stibbons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ponder_stibbons/32/343_2.png) [@Ponder\_Stibbons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ponder_Stibbons)\ **Post date:** [September 4, 2007, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891/20 "2007-09-04T19:32:36Z")
[QUOTE=Kneepants Erasmus, the Humanist] Yeah, but if it were a giant ant, it would still be a “he” or “she”. Duh. :rolleyes: Sigh. :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: [/QUOTE] OK, :rolleyes: help :rolleyes: me :rolleyes: out :rolleyes: here. What:rolleyes:'s the :rolleyes: joke? :dubious: [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jahdra-the-magical-earthquake-predictor/417891.md?page=2)