# James Carville on the state of the election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 7, 2020, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597 "2020-02-07T19:31:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 10
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/181 "2020-02-14T18:49:11Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > That’s nuts. Bernie’s advocating for policies like Canada, Denmark, Finland, etc. One might note that your average American is not in line to emigrate to Denmark. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 7:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/182 "2020-02-14T19:06:54Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > There are videos of Bernie praising Castro and other communist regimes. Sure most are old and he’s gotten a lot better about not expressing those kind of comments in recent years but do you really think that matters? Even if it was 30 years ago how do you think those videos will play in a place like Florida? And you are talking about policies? I’m talking about his own words coming back to bury him in 30 second increments on tv. So are you saying Bernie’s a communist (which is what Carville and Trump have said), or are you saying they will try to smear Bernie as a communist? The latter is obviously true (and will be true of any Democrat), and the former is obviously false. I don’t think decades-old videos will be terribly influential, but we’ll see. Even with those videos, I think Bernie has the best chance to win. > [@asahi](#): > > Nah, he’s right. He said Bernie’s a communist. So did Trump. That’s ridiculous. Carville is wrong. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/183 "2020-02-14T19:13:13Z")
The conventional wisdom said Trump was a weak candidate, and the “centrist” Hillary Clinton would beat him. So did my instincts. All that stuff is crap. We just don’t know – all these predictions are no better than wild guesses at this point. Nate Silver says we know almost nothing about electability, and I’m going with his analysis over random internet folks and even talking heads like Carville. So I’m going with the candidate who best matches me on policy, and who I think is getting the most people excited. So far, I’ve been called and visited in person about 10 times – 9 times (and all the in-person visits at my house) by Bernie volunteers, and 1 Bloomberg phonecall (who probably wasn’t a volunteer). And from the polling I’ve seen, Bernie is doing as well against Trump as anyone lately, not that this tells us much this early. And I like his policies best. So I’m supporting Bernie, and I urge others to as well. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/184 "2020-02-14T19:15:49Z")
Obama didn’t win because he was a centrist, he won because he has once-in-a-generation charisma and communication skills. People were excited to vote for Obama. I don’t think the Democrats are likely to win unless we’ve got someone people are excited to vote for. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/185 "2020-02-14T19:16:13Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The latter is obviously true (and will be true of any Democrat), So you’re confident that an actual video of Sanders praising Castro and getting in a drunk sing along in Russia will have no effect on the Florida vote? ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/186 "2020-02-14T19:20:59Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > So are you saying Bernie’s a communist (which is what Carville and Trump have said), or are you saying they will try to smear Bernie as a communist? The latter is obviously true (and will be true of any Democrat), and the former is obviously false. I don’t think decades-old videos will be terribly influential, but we’ll see. Even with those videos, I think Bernie has the best chance to win. > > He said Bernie’s a communist. So did Trump. > > That’s ridiculous. Carville is wrong. He may have mellowed with age but he has expressed a lot more solidarity with communist governments and communist systems than any democrat candidate ever. He might as well be a communist. As it is he is an avowed socialist which might as well be the same thing. Carville can be a blowhard. He certainly knows the difference between communist and socialist. He also knows it doesn’t matter in American politics. It’s hard to characterize someone’s own words as a smear. Is the tape of Bloomberg a smear? ---
**Author:** ![drad\_dog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/aeb1de/32.png) [@drad\_dog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drad_dog)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 7:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/187 "2020-02-14T19:23:03Z")
Bernie is Russian too. It’s a new world. New alliances. Republican voters are warmer now about russians, and i think that also affects attitudes towards “communism” as a thing. And Bernie is preaching democratic socialism not communism at all, not even by exaggeration. Meaning he wants to spend the money we already have on non corruption: what a concept. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/188 "2020-02-14T19:26:03Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > So far, I’ve been called and visited in person about 10 times – 9 times (and all the in-person visits at my house) by Bernie volunteers, and 1 Bloomberg phonecall (who probably wasn’t a volunteer). I suppose I should be thankful I live in a non-swing state with a late primary. My vote is meaningless but no one bothers me. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/189 "2020-02-14T19:26:40Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > So you’re confident that an actual video of Sanders praising Castro and getting in a drunk sing along in Russia will have no effect on the Florida vote? I don’t think the drunk singing video would have any effect (seriously – it’s just Sanders hanging out with some Russians from Burlington’s sister city in Russia in the 80s). For folks for whom Castro looms large as some great historical villain, I’m sure this would negatively incline them towards Sanders, but I think such folks are probably vanishingly likely to vote for Sanders anyway. Any effect it would have, IMO, would be overcome by the greater enthusiasm and support he would have than the alternatives. At least this is how I feel right now. Which is basically a wild guess, but it’s _my_ wild guess. I doubt I’m going to find anyone else’s wild guess somehow convincing. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/190 "2020-02-14T19:30:52Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > That’s nuts. Bernie’s advocating for policies like Canada, Denmark, Finland, etc. America could stand to be more like Canada, yes. That’s do-able. America will never be like Finland in any way, shape or form - that country and culture is as sequestered as you can get; such societies can only be created organically after thousands of years of people collectively bunkering down to survive brutal winters. Some of the indigenous peoples of America might have been kind of like Finland today, if we hadn’t, you know, totally destroyed their cultures. Small-scale “communitarianism” requires small-scale communities to work. But certain economic policies - called perhaps unfairly “the welfare state”, can indeed be implemented in America, I think. Bernie’s ideas about healthcare are NOT RADICAL. It’s our current healthcare situation that is radical - radically fucked up. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 7:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/191 "2020-02-14T19:32:04Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > He may have mellowed with age but he has expressed a lot more solidarity with communist governments and communist systems than any democrat candidate ever. He might as well be a communist. As it is he is an avowed socialist which might as well be the same thing. Carville can be a blowhard. He certainly knows the difference between communist and socialist. He also knows it doesn’t matter in American politics. I’m unconvinced. This just sounds like CNN/Morning Joe/Chuck Todd-style conventional wisdom – the kind of conventional wisdom that failed spectacularly in 2016 (not just in the GE, but in the Republican primary as well). Bernie’s not a bright new thing – he’s a well known commodity. He’s been a national player, as much as a Senator can be, for 4 years. Everyone knows who he is. Everyone who’s interested in politics has probably seen, or at least heard about these videos. I don’t think they’re going to have a huge effect. But this is all guessing. I’m going with the candidate that feels right to me, because there’s vanishingly little actual data that tells us which one is most likely to win (as Nate Silver points out again and again). > [@](#): > > It’s hard to characterize someone’s own words as a smear. Is the tape of Bloomberg a smear? Not sure what this is referring to. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/192 "2020-02-14T19:37:55Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I don’t think the drunk singing video would have any effect (seriously – it’s just Sanders hanging out with some Russians from Burlington’s sister city in Russia in the 80s). For folks for whom Castro looms large as some great historical villain, I’m sure this would negatively incline them towards Sanders, but I think such folks are probably vanishingly likely to vote for Sanders anyway. Any effect it would have, IMO, would be overcome by the greater enthusiasm and support he would have than the alternatives. > > At least this is how I feel right now. Which is basically a wild guess, but it’s _my_ wild guess. I doubt I’m going to find anyone else’s wild guess somehow convincing. Convincing you isn’t relevant. The fact that left wing folks like Carville are calling Comrade Sanders a communist is huge and signals a real fear that will be convincing to others. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 7:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/193 "2020-02-14T19:42:17Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Convincing you isn’t relevant. The fact that left wing folks like Carville are calling Comrade Sanders a communist is huge and signals a real fear that will be convincing to others. Interesting wild guess! I guess we’ll see which wild guess happens to align with the future. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/194 "2020-02-14T19:45:09Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Interesting wild guess! I guess we’ll see which wild guess happens to align with the future. That goofy rhetorical tactic is not accurate in this case. We have people in this thread agreeing with Carville, therefore my statement is not a wild guess. It’s a fact. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/195 "2020-02-14T19:46:32Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > That goofy rhetorical tactic is not accurate in this case. We have people in this thread agreeing with Carville, therefore my statement is not a wild guess. It’s a fact. And there are people in other threads that agree with me! What fun! I wonder which wild guess will happen to be true/more influential with the most people for 2020? Tune in for the next several months and we’ll find out! ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/196 "2020-02-14T19:47:55Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I’m unconvinced. This just sounds like CNN/Morning Joe/Chuck Todd-style conventional wisdom – the kind of conventional wisdom that failed spectacularly in 2016 (not just in the GE, but in the Republican primary as well). > > Bernie’s not a bright new thing – he’s a well known commodity. He’s been a national player, as much as a Senator can be, for 4 years. Everyone knows who he is. Everyone who’s interested in politics has probably seen, or at least heard about these videos. I don’t think they’re going to have a huge effect. > > But this is all guessing. I’m going with the candidate that feels right to me, because there’s vanishingly little actual data that tells us which one is most likely to win (as Nate Silver points out again and again). > > Not sure what this is referring to. You might have found the results spectacular but I don’t find the results falling within the margin of error of most polls as failing spectacularly. That’s just not understanding math. The Bloomberg tape came out with him talking about stop and frisk and is being used by the democratic establishment to say he’s racist. Is that a smear? It’s his own words on tape. ---
**Author:** ![octopus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/octopus/32/3716_2.png) [@octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/octopus)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/197 "2020-02-14T19:50:18Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > And there are people in other threads that agree with me! What fun! I wonder which wild guess will happen to be true/more influential with the most people for 2020? Tune in for the next several months and we’ll find out! Good thing I never said most influential isn’t it? I said Carville’s statement will influence others and this thread is proof that it has. If you are going to use what is at this point almost a catchphrase use it appropriately. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/198 "2020-02-14T19:52:53Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > You might have found the results spectacular but I don’t find the results falling within the margin of error of most polls as failing spectacularly. That’s just not understanding math. I agree – the conventional wisdom from 2016 should have followed Nate Silver’s math, which was reasonably close to the final results (the polls only being more than a little bit off in a few states). But the conventional wisdom went another way, and was shown to be spectacularly dumb. Right now, Nate Silver is saying that there is no data to suggest that the conventional wisdom about Bernie as somehow less electable is correct – that we know virtually nothing about who is more electable at this point. I’m going with Nate Silver and his track record over this conventional wisdom. > [@](#): > > The Bloomberg tape came out with him talking about stop and frisk and is being used by the democratic establishment to say he’s racist. Is that a smear? It’s his own words on tape. I never said it was a smear. I’m not sure what you’re asking me about related to anything I’ve said. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/199 "2020-02-14T19:55:31Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Good thing I never said most influential isn’t it? I said Carville’s statement will influence others and this thread is proof that it has. If you are going to use what is at this point almost a catchphrase use it appropriately. I’m not sure what you’re actually disputing, but thank you. We’ll find out whether I am correct or not with regards to the 2020 election over the next several months. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/200 "2020-02-14T19:58:19Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Not sure what this is referring to. He’s referring to words you typed and posted. You used the word “smear” to describe spreading around Sanders’ Castro praise. Do a text search if you’ve forgotten already. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597.md?page=9) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597.md?page=11)