# James Carville on the state of the election **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [February 7, 2020, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597 "2020-02-07T19:31:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 12
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/221 "2020-02-14T22:57:18Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > The conventional wisdom said Trump was a weak candidate, and the “centrist” Hillary Clinton would beat him. So did my instincts. All that stuff is crap. We just don’t know – all these predictions are no better than wild guesses at this point. Nate Silver says we know almost nothing about electability, and I’m going with his analysis over random internet folks and even talking heads like Carville. > > So I’m going with the candidate who best matches me on policy, and who I think is getting the most people excited. So far, I’ve been called and visited in person about 10 times – 9 times (and all the in-person visits at my house) by Bernie volunteers, and 1 Bloomberg phonecall (who probably wasn’t a volunteer). And from the polling I’ve seen, Bernie is doing as well against Trump as anyone lately, not that this tells us much this early. And I like his policies best. So I’m supporting Bernie, and I urge others to as well. That’s cool. So long as you support him in the primary but switch allegiance to the nominee if it isn’t Sanders. It’s the folks who will “vote”\* for Sanders in the General Election even if he’s not nominated that I’m worried about. \*They’ll do this by either: 1. Not voting at all 2. Voting for some 4th party Communist 3. Writing in Che Guevara 4. Killing themselves and their cat ---
**Author:** ![Manwich](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e480ec/32.png) [@Manwich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Manwich)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 10:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/222 "2020-02-14T22:58:19Z")
Just on electionable popularity wise, Sanders (Bernie) has the numbers with his communism. I think your country (USA) is turning good now ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 11:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/223 "2020-02-14T23:01:26Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > L: I’m talking about his own words coming back to bury him in 30 second increments on tv. > A: are you saying they will try to smear Bernie as a communist? > L: It’s hard to characterize someone’s own words as a smear. Is the tape of Bloomberg a smear? > A: I never said it was a smear. I’m not sure what you’re asking me about related to anything I’ve said. Okay, thanks. Bernie is not a communist, and never has been. Calling him a communist would be a smear. Carville and Trump have called Bernie a communist – they have attempted to smear Bernie. I didn’t understand what smear was being referred to, since Bernie has never been on tape claiming to be a communist. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/224 "2020-02-14T23:03:21Z")
> [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > _You_ know that. _I_ know that. But the majority of voters will only hear “Socialist” and “Communist” and that’s more than enough to send him crashing down. And you must realize that many–maybe a plurality–of US voters already think that Canada, Denmark, and Finland _are_ Communist states. This is definitely the conventional wisdom, but I don’t believe this is the case any more. I don’t think “socialist” is scary to a majority of voters any more, and I don’t think “communist” will stick any more than it has for every other Democrat that it’s been used against. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 11:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/225 "2020-02-14T23:04:38Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > Convincing you isn’t relevant. The fact that left wing folks like Carville are calling Comrade Sanders a communist is huge and signals a real fear that will be convincing to others. Precisely. It’s tempting for Democrats to assume that the electorate has common sense. I get that. But it would be a mistake. ---
**Author:** ![Manwich](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e480ec/32.png) [@Manwich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Manwich)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/226 "2020-02-14T23:07:15Z")
Genuine concern that Bernie is “too socialist” and WON’T be elected right here in this thread ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/227 "2020-02-14T23:08:49Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > And there are people in other threads that agree with me! What fun! I wonder which wild guess will happen to be true/more influential with the most people for 2020? Tune in for the next several months and we’ll find out! I wonder what the betting odds are that the next president will be “Someone Other Than Bernie Sanders”? I would take those odds, if I were to bet on such things. Even if the odds are something like 1/10 (a $10 bet wins you $1) it’s sweet, sweet, free money. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/228 "2020-02-14T23:13:33Z")
> [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](#): > > Precisely. It’s tempting for Democrats to assume that the electorate has common sense. I get that. But it would be a mistake. That’s not what I’m assuming. I think Bernie is running a great vague and non-specific campaign. Few details on how to pay for everything – and GOOD! Details will get him in trouble. Big ideas and big promises with little on the how-to… as it should be! He’s running on feelings. And he’s got the excitement, at least AFAICT. He’s been the most skilled politician in the primary so far, and IMO, it’s not even close. Maybe Bloomberg will start to catch up a bit, but we’ll see. I don’t think Bloomberg will inspire the excitement and feelings that Bernie does. I want a savvy politician who plays to the crowds and to the public but has them convinced that it’s all genuine passion and purity. Which, in Bernie’s case, is probably 75% true – but that remaining 25% is ruthless, calculating savviness. At least, that’s what I think so far. We’ll see, but IMO so far Bernie is the ruthless, skilled politician we need. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/229 "2020-02-14T23:17:29Z")
> [@Banquet\_Bear](#): > > …propaganda relies on a certain amount of “buy-in” from people in order for it to work. Arguing that many Americans aren’t going to have an intelligent and nuanced conversation about the ideological differences between socialism and communism is an entirely fair point to make. > > But this? > > This is entirely a different thing. This is buying into the propaganda. This is propagating the propaganda. You don’t fight propaganda by buying into the propaganda. Its entirely fair to argue that many will conflate socialism with communism. But that isn’t what you did here. You know that Bernie isn’t a communist no matter how much solidarity he allegedly has with communist governments and systems. It isn’t even close to the same thing. It’s not my job to fight propaganda. If you want to put me on the anti-propaganda payroll give me an offer. If I put “socialism is not communism” as my sig it won’t make a bit of difference. That’s not even the point. I’m having a discussion about how I’m guessing the election will go. This conversation is not going beyond this board and will not affect one vote. I’m not propagating anything. That’s how I think the vote will go. I’m not going to pretend that’s not how it will go. Maybe I’m wrong and voters are much more open minded. So far I haven’t seen evidence of that in my life but hope springs eternal right? ---
**Author:** ![Manwich](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e480ec/32.png) [@Manwich](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Manwich)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/230 "2020-02-14T23:18:23Z")
It’s specific. Stop people in a first world country from dying because they can’t afford seeing a doctor. Don’t start wars so much, that’s a bit more vague ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 11:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/231 "2020-02-14T23:24:39Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Okay, thanks. You’re welcome but you sure seem to have trouble following the nuance of conversations you’re actively participating in. Maybe the next time you’re about to say “that has nothing to do with what I posted”, you should do a couple read throughs. It’s kind of frustrating that you forget what happen ened two posts ago. ---
**Author:** ![Lamoral](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lamoral/32/16078_2.png) [@Lamoral](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamoral)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 11:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/232 "2020-02-14T23:27:28Z")
God, I wish American socialists had re-branded their ideology as some word other than “socialism”, decades ago. It would have made it SO much easier to do what needs to be done. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/233 "2020-02-14T23:28:58Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > You’re welcome but you sure seem to have trouble following the nuance of conversations you’re actively participating in. Maybe the next time you’re about to say “that has nothing to do with what I posted”, you should do a couple read throughs. It’s kind of frustrating that you forget what happen ened two posts ago. But it didn’t make any sense – there’s no tape of Bernie claiming to be a communist. So there was no tape upon which to base the accusation of communism. That’s where the disconnect lies. I didn’t follow it because the argument didn’t make sense. But thank you for connecting the dots – you might have a better ability to make sense of poor arguments than I do. 😉 I get a lot of enjoyment out of our back-and-forths, so I hope you continue to assist me in this way. Thanks again! ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 11:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/234 "2020-02-14T23:33:36Z")
Like I said, it made sense. You thanked me for the advice, now apply it. Read everything twice, minimum. ---
**Author:** ![I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/i_love_me_vol.i/32/521_2.png) [@I\_Love\_Me\_Vol.I](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/I_Love_Me_Vol.I)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 11:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/235 "2020-02-14T23:34:55Z")
> [@Manwich](#): > > Helicopter avatar warning against socialism, nice bWHAT? 😕 ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 11:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/236 "2020-02-14T23:36:12Z")
> [@CarnalK](#): > > Like I said, it made sense. You thanked me for the advice, now apply it. Read everything twice, minimum. I usually read through posts that I respond to more than twice (often a lot more!), but that’s still good advice, so thank you. Reading through that multiple times doesn’t make it any more clear – I did use the word “smear”, but the smear I mentioned was about being a communist, and there’s no tape of Bernie admitting to being a communist, so I didn’t understand what a supposed tape had to do with this smear. I still don’t, but that’s okay – I’m happy to move on. I’m assuming that you’re responding to my post here – if not, please disregard. When you don’t quote, it makes it harder to figure out who you’re responding to. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/237 "2020-02-14T23:41:17Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > I usually read through posts that I respond to more than twice (often a lot more!), Oh. Ok, you keep trying. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 11:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/238 "2020-02-14T23:42:42Z")
Ahh, I think I see where I went wrong – when I said “I never said it was a smear.” I was talking about Bloomberg. I don’t know what Bloomberg stuff was being referred to. Of course Bernie’s opponents (like Carville and Trump) are trying to smear him, but I don’t know anything about tapes or smears regarding Bloomberg. So bringing up Bloomberg and some tapes of Bloomberg confused me and I had no idea what was being discussed. I still don’t know how Bloomberg or Bloomberg tapes are relevant to this discussion. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 11:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/239 "2020-02-14T23:44:38Z")
> [@Loach](#): > > Maybe I’m wrong and voters are much more open minded. So far I haven’t seen evidence of that in my life but hope springs eternal right? Actually now that I think about it that poll I cited is pretty optimistic. I have little issue with someone dismissing a candidate based on ideology. The numbers cited from most of the other categories are very hopeful and trending in the right direction. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [February 14, 2020, 11:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/240 "2020-02-14T23:49:44Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Ahh, I think I see where I went wrong – when I said “I never said it was a smear.” I was talking about Bloomberg. I don’t know what Bloomberg stuff was being referred to. Of course Bernie’s opponents (like Carville and Trump) are trying to smear him, but I don’t know anything about tapes or smears regarding Bloomberg. So bringing up Bloomberg and some tapes of Bloomberg confused me and I had no idea what was being discussed. I still don’t know how Bloomberg or Bloomberg tapes are relevant to this discussion. Because I think Bernie’ own words coming out of his own face are going to sink him with enough of a percentage of voters in November if not in the primary. No smearing necessary. The same tactic is being used against Bloomberg currently. Putting out his own words to use against him. Are either smears? Both? Neither? Is it a smear only when used against the guy you like? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597.md?page=11) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597.md?page=13)