# James Carville on the state of the election
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597
**Category:** Politics & Elections
**Created:** [February 7, 2020, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597 "2020-02-07T19:31:50Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 4
### Author:  [@nelliebly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nelliebly)
#### Post date: [February 8, 2020, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/61 "2020-02-08T04:11:08Z")
This thread has been illuminating for me. I’m seeing now that the GOP, which sold its soul and threw out most of its moral standards, is still in the game because to hell with sub-groups. Those GOP rank and file who are wondering what happened to their party? Too bad. Mitch and the boys (and a few girls) are counting on you to hate the Dems so much, you’ll vote for Trump anyway. If not, no problem. We’ve got the electoral college on our side.
Meanwhile the Dems are arguing about how to win. Appeal to the swing voters–those odd people who seem to dither so much–or to the party faithful? How do you appeal to the party faithful when they’re split into so many subgroups with differing views?
Donald Trump is by far the worst president we’ve ever had, and that’s saying something. He’s a blight on everything the Founding Fathers believed in and Americans have fought and died for. I’ll vote for whoever opposes him. How many non-Trumpers will do the same, and how many need to be courted? How do you court one group without losing the other?
---
### Author:  [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)
#### Post date: [February 8, 2020, 4:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/62 "2020-02-08T04:25:25Z")
> [@nelliebly](#):
>
> This thread has been illuminating for me. I’m seeing now that the GOP, which sold its soul and threw out most of its moral standards, is still in the game because to hell with sub-groups. Those GOP rank and file who are wondering what happened to their party? Too bad. Mitch and the boys (and a few girls) are counting on you to hate the Dems so much, you’ll vote for Trump anyway. If not, no problem. We’ve got the electoral college on our side.
>
> Meanwhile the Dems are arguing about how to win. Appeal to the swing voters–those odd people who seem to dither so much–or to the party faithful? How do you appeal to the party faithful when they’re split into so many subgroups with differing views?
>
> Donald Trump is by far the worst president we’ve ever had, and that’s saying something. He’s a blight on everything the Founding Fathers believed in and Americans have fought and died for. I’ll vote for whoever opposes him. How many non-Trumpers will do the same, and how many need to be courted? How do you court one group without losing the other?
I think that’s Carville’s point. Any Dem that is nominated has your vote. So there is no need to keep going left and left and left to make you happier. They’ve got you already. They need to get those voters in PA, WI, MI, and MN who could be persuaded. And they don’t do that by being socialists.
---
### Author:  [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)
#### Post date: [February 8, 2020, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/63 "2020-02-08T04:27:45Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#):
>
> Nice setup.
>
> Let people believe that Sanders/Warren wants to take all their money and give it to a welfare queen or tell them they are wrong which will make then run away and vote Trump because don’t tell people they are wrong.
>
> Granted, there are better and worse ways to try and convince someone they are wrong but your way is bulletproof to any persuasion and educating people on the facts. You have your feels…everyone else can go fuck themselves.
>
> So what is your solution? Abandon policies that help others and go all in on policies that help your family?
>
> That is why we are in the place we are in.
Don’t abandon anything, just stop campaigning on shit that is turning a large portion of the population away from you. Stop spending so much time talking about free/affordable college (most people don’t go to college), forgiving student loans (most people don’t have student debt), M4A (most people already have insurance), reparations (most people aren’t directly tied to slavery) and poverty alleviation (most people aren’t impoverished, and even poorer people don’t consider themselves “poor”), and start talking about job training, affordable health insurance, retirement, protecting our kids, etc.
Once you’re elected, follow your wildest dreams. But unless you get elected, that won’t matter anyway.
Considering how filthy rotten the Republican Party has become, the GOP should be no where CLOSE to relevant anymore. They’re beyond vile. But the fact that they \*are \* still polling as well as they do tells me the Republicans are still better at messaging and wooing the voters they \*need \*to actually stay in the game. Democrats are still arguing among themselves over just how “free” college should be, and trying to convince those “swing” voters just how much that issue should matter to them.
---
### Author:  [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)
#### Post date: [February 8, 2020, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/64 "2020-02-08T04:38:01Z")
> [@UltraVires](#):
>
> I think that’s Carville’s point. Any Dem that is nominated has your vote. So there is no need to keep going left and left and left to make you happier. They’ve got you already. They need to get those voters in PA, WI, MI, and MN who could be persuaded. And they don’t do that by being socialists.
That literally did not work in 2015.
---
### Author:  [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)
#### Post date: [February 8, 2020, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/65 "2020-02-08T04:46:02Z")
> [@Happy\_Lendervedder](#):
>
> Considering how filthy rotten the Republican Party has become, the GOP should be no where CLOSE to relevant anymore. They’re beyond vile. But the fact that they \*are \* still polling as well as they do tells me the Republicans are still better at messaging and wooing the voters they \*need \*to actually stay in the game. Democrats are still arguing among themselves over just how “free” college should be, and trying to convince those “swing” voters just how much that issue should matter to them.
Yeah…Clinton and Carville should be on the sidelines rooting for everyone and telling the country how awesome it is that the Dems are so inclusive and have such vibrant ideas and debates about those ideas. Everyone is welcome! Go everyone! This is how it should be done!
Instead they are freaking out and taking big whacks at their own party.
Instead they are grousing about how horrible Sanders is and the general lean to the left the party has taken.
As democrats, they are hurting the party and the cause. And they don’t seem to care.
---
### Author:  [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)
#### Post date: [February 8, 2020, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/66 "2020-02-08T04:47:21Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#):
>
> That literally did not work in 2015.
Ack…2016 :smack:
---
### Author:  [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)
#### Post date: [February 8, 2020, 5:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/67 "2020-02-08T05:16:19Z")
> [@Unreconstructed\_Man](#):
>
> Seems like everything which rubs people up the wrong way during an election year is a “Big winner for \”. I’m sure it may seem that way to you, but that don’t necessarily make it so.
>
> Bottom line is we tried it Carville’s way in 2016. We nominated the most middle-of-the-road career politician we could find, sent her out there on a blandly centrist policy platform designed to appease as many groups as possible, and…guess what? It was a big winner for Trump and the Republicans! I’m sick of listening to people like Carville who, for all their swearing and their bluster, don’t have any fucking balls. Doing something about student debt may not be popular with everyone, but doing nothing about it is just morally unacceptable. So if a bunch of pathologically selfish boomer assholes _like the guy Carville explicitly referred to_ want a fight about it then I say let’s give them one.
Well, good luck with your orthodoxy. You are a true believer and that is noble and oh so good. When the dust clears, the fanatics will lose again. As always. And then they’ll grow up and wonder how they could have been so naive. Real progressives who understand how actual progress is made will be waiting for the reckoning. Patiently. Sigh.
---
### Author:  [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)
#### Post date: [February 8, 2020, 5:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/68 "2020-02-08T05:24:23Z")
> [@BlankSlate](#):
>
> Well, good luck with your orthodoxy. You are a true believer and that is noble and oh so good. When the dust clears, the fanatics will lose again. As always. And then they’ll grow up and wonder how they could have been so naive. Real progressives who understand how actual progress is made will be waiting for the reckoning. Patiently. Sigh.
I’m curious why you think Trump won? Centrist that he is and all…:rolleyes:
---
### Author:  [@BlankSlate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlankSlate)
#### Post date: [February 8, 2020, 6:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/69 "2020-02-08T06:33:43Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#):
>
> I’m curious why you think Trump won?..
I’m surely happy to tell you. White people. That’s why Trump won. Trump is the manifestation of white anger and fear. Trumpism is a disease and white people are the virus that unleashed it on America. Until white people are outnumbered and out-bred, soon thankfully, the disease will spread unchecked. It’s temporary and hopefully the damage can be mitigated, but that remains to be seen. Call it white-lash or backlash, it doesn’t matter. Terms like ‘centrists’ or ‘moderates’ only gloss over the fact that it’s a white people problem. Whites. There is no other rational explanation for such an irrational, unqualified and worthless human being to be installed in the White House. Only a huge majority of conspirators could accomplish this crime, and that is White Folks.
---
### Author:  [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)
#### Post date: [February 8, 2020, 6:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/70 "2020-02-08T06:56:23Z")
> [@Nicest\_of\_the\_Damned](#):
>
> This gets an “OK, Boomer” award.
>
> Leaving left and right out of it, student debt and things like the shortage of affordable housing and lack of good jobs are things affecting a large part of the population. These aren’t just kids, these are people now in their thirties and even forties. These are not problems that only developed in the last few years. The Democrats haven’t exactly been there for them.
Imagine that you want to build the world’s most beautiful, miniature glass fairytale castle in your back yard.
Next to you lives a psychopathic 16 year old who spends his free time cutting on street dogs and you’re pretty sure that he’s the one who torched your bird feeder last month.
You’re definitely sure that he’s the one who smashed up the glass castle you were building, the last five times.
What’s your big problem in life?
a) How to build the most beautiful and majestic glass castle.
b) Figuring out a solution to the 16 year old psychopath, because otherwise it doesn’t matter what sorts of columns and promenades you use, it’s all just pie in the sky so long as he’s free to roam.
Obamacare is no more. So long as partisanship demands that each side destroy everything the other side built, you can hope and dream of anything great and desperately necessary that you could ever want and it won’t do a damn bit of good.
If you’re selling the American people on your magic fairytale castle, when everyone’s watching the 16 year old running around behind you, they’re all going to think that you’re a fantasist who doesn’t appreciate reality.
---
### Author:  [@Banquet\_Bear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Banquet_Bear)
#### Post date: [February 8, 2020, 7:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/71 "2020-02-08T07:07:07Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#):
>
> If you’re selling the American people on your magic fairytale castle, when everyone’s watching the 16 year old running around behind you, they’re all going to think that you’re a fantasist who doesn’t appreciate reality.
…are the fantasists people like Clinton and Carville? Because they seem to be the people who don’t appreciate reality here.
---
### Author:  [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)
#### Post date: [February 8, 2020, 7:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/72 "2020-02-08T07:12:50Z")
Carville knows more about politics than most of us, but I’d agree with his opinions there even if I’d never heard of him.
Propose that the government rebate P% of **all** student debt incurred between year Y1 and year Y2 and _ **I’d support it** _. (No, I don’t know the optimal values of P, Y1 and Y2. I’d also put both minimum and maximum caps on the rebate.)
BUT that’s not what is proposed. The student who spent his savings on “hookers and blow” while scoffing at his debt gets his debt forgiven, while we just say “Thank you for your loss” to the student in otherwise identical circumstances who sacrificed to pay off his debt? _ **That is hugely unfair.** _ I’m amazed that Dopers … and Warren … don’t grasp the unfairness.
---
### Author:  [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)
#### Post date: [February 8, 2020, 7:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/73 "2020-02-08T07:17:31Z")
> [@septimus](#):
>
> Carville knows more about politics than most of us, but I’d agree with his opinions there even if I’d never heard of him.
>
> Propose that the government rebate P% of **all** student debt incurred between year Y1 and year Y2 and _ **I’d support it** _. (No, I don’t know the optimal values of P, Y1 and Y2. I’d also put both minimum and maximum caps on the rebate.)
>
> BUT that’s not what is proposed. The student who spent his savings on “hookers and blow” while scoffing at his debt gets his debt forgiven, while we just say “Thank you for your loss” to the student in otherwise identical circumstances who sacrificed to pay off his debt? _ **That is hugely unfair.** _ I’m amazed that Dopers … and Warren … don’t grasp the unfairness.
This pretty much. It means that those who scrimped and saved and worked hard to pay off loans, now feel that all of that went for naught. To add insult to injury, their taxes will now be raised to help pay off the loan-forgiveness of the hooker-and-blow students.
Either give them a reimbursement for their hard work and discipline as well, or scrap this plan - but as currently structured, it is terribly unfair.
---
### Author:  [@Unreconstructed\_Man](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Unreconstructed_Man)
#### Post date: [February 8, 2020, 7:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/74 "2020-02-08T07:29:51Z")
> [@Blank Slate](#):
>
> I’m surely happy to tell you. White people. That’s why Trump won. Trump is the manifestation of white anger and fear. Trumpism is a disease and white people are the virus that unleashed it on America. Until white people are outnumbered and out-bred, soon thankfully, the disease will spread unchecked.
Blank Slate: Sir, your divisiveness and partisanship will alienate Middle America, and your use of blasphemous obscenities such as this “OK Boomer” will serve only to embolden the enemies of the Republic. Harrumph, sir! Harrumph I say!
Also Blank Slate: White people are _diseased._
Blank Slate, you’re a racist. You’re in no position to lecture anyone else about framing.
---
### Author:  [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)
#### Post date: [February 8, 2020, 7:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/75 "2020-02-08T07:38:09Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#):
>
> I’m curious why you think Trump won? Centrist that he is and all…:rolleyes:
For all intents and purposes Trump and Clinton tied. There is no grand takeaway from that election other than that they were both terrible candidates who had more people voting against a candidate than voting for one. Both had enormous baggage.
Imagine a few votes had shifted in some key states and Hillary wins. Would that have been a sign that the GOP needs to go hard right to win and that the public is really clamoring for David Duke? Of course not. And for the very same reason, it is just as absurd to think the Dems need to go hard left to win.
You’re just going to hand Trump another win because the policies of a hard left candidate will be so out of whack with the middle of the road voters needed to win. The people wearing MAGA hats and those wearing pink pussy hats are at the extreme end of each party and are not representative of the average voter. I dare say that most posters on the SDMB are towards the extreme left.
Carville knows what he is talking about. We talk politics and argue because we study the issues and have strong opinions. The average swing voter really does not. He or she casts a vote because of the latest ad, what their friends who saw an ad say, the feeling that they get from the snippets on the news, or a meme on Facebook.
Those middle of the roaders who are making $18.50 are pissed that Bernie wants to give everyone $15/hr starting out when it took them years to get to $18.50, or when Bernie says he wants to radically redo health insurance. They are happy with their Cigna plan. Or better stated, they know what they are getting with their Cigna plan and it has worked so far. They will not read an article cited about how Bernie’s plan is better. That’s democracy. You have to capture the hearts and minds of those that you believe have below average intelligence or worse.
The Dems just don’t have a hand on the pulse of that working class attitude anymore.
---
### Author:  [@Unreconstructed\_Man](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Unreconstructed_Man)
#### Post date: [February 8, 2020, 7:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/76 "2020-02-08T07:53:23Z")
> [@UltraVires](#):
>
> You’re just going to hand Trump another win because the policies of a hard left candidate will be so out of whack with the middle of the road voters needed to win. The people wearing MAGA hats and those wearing pink pussy hats are at the extreme end of each party and are not representative of the average voter. I dare say that most posters on the SDMB are towards the extreme left.
Nonsense. Bernie’s signature policies such as Medicare for All, student debt relief, and Wall Street reform, all enjoy massive popular support. People _want_ what Bernie’s selling.
---
### Author:  [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)
#### Post date: [February 8, 2020, 4:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/77 "2020-02-08T16:24:00Z")
> [@BlankSlate](#):
>
> I’m surely happy to tell you. White people. That’s why Trump won. Trump is the manifestation of white anger and fear. Trumpism is a disease and white people are the virus that unleashed it on America. Until white people are outnumbered and out-bred, soon thankfully, the disease will spread unchecked. It’s temporary and hopefully the damage can be mitigated, but that remains to be seen. Call it white-lash or backlash, it doesn’t matter. Terms like ‘centrists’ or ‘moderates’ only gloss over the fact that it’s a white people problem. Whites. There is no other rational explanation for such an irrational, unqualified and worthless human being to be installed in the White House. Only a huge majority of conspirators could accomplish this crime, and that is White Folks.
That’ll earn you a warning, Blank Slate. You’re lucky it doesn’t earn you an immediate suspension.
Don’t do it again.
---
### Author:  [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)
#### Post date: [February 8, 2020, 4:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/78 "2020-02-08T16:26:34Z")
> [@Unreconstructed\_Man](#):
>
> Nonsense. Bernie’s signature policies such as Medicare for All, student debt relief, and Wall Street reform, all enjoy massive popular support. People _want_ what Bernie’s selling.
How would you define “massive public support”?
---
### Author:  [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)
#### Post date: [February 8, 2020, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/79 "2020-02-08T17:03:49Z")
> [@Sage\_Rat](#):
>
> Imagine that you want to build the world’s most beautiful, miniature glass fairytale castle in your back yard.
>
> Next to you lives a psychopathic 16 year old who spends his free time cutting on street dogs and you’re pretty sure that he’s the one who torched your bird feeder last month.
>
> You’re definitely sure that he’s the one who smashed up the glass castle you were building, the last five times.
>
> What’s your big problem in life?
>
> a) How to build the most beautiful and majestic glass castle.
> b) Figuring out a solution to the 16 year old psychopath, because otherwise it doesn’t matter what sorts of columns and promenades you use, it’s all just pie in the sky so long as he’s free to roam.
>
> Obamacare is no more. So long as partisanship demands that each side destroy everything the other side built, you can hope and dream of anything great and desperately necessary that you could ever want and it won’t do a damn bit of good.
>
> If you’re selling the American people on your magic fairytale castle, when everyone’s watching the 16 year old running around behind you, they’re all going to think that you’re a fantasist who doesn’t appreciate reality.
I hear two approaches:
1. Some folks saying, “We gotta start from a higher baseline, because then the psychopath won’t be able to reach it.”
2. Other folks saying, “No, we gotta make the base strong and build it lower to the ground, because even though that’s exactly the plan that the psycho smashed up last time, it’s sure to work this time.”
I’m not totally convinced the second group has the right of it.
---
### Author:  [@Unreconstructed\_Man](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Unreconstructed_Man)
#### Post date: [February 8, 2020, 5:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/james-carville-on-the-state-of-the-election/847597/80 "2020-02-08T17:06:06Z")
> [@CarnalK](#):
>
> How would you define “massive public support”?
I think it depends on the issue a little bit, but by and large I’d consider an issue to have “massive public support” if around 70-80% of voters are for it. Medicare For All is on the lower end of that spectrum, with [70%](https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/thehill.com/hilltv/what-americas-thinking/412545-70-percent-of-americans-support-medicare-for-all-health-care%3famp) of all voters supporting it. Meanwhile Wall Street Reform is on the higher end with [81%](https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.vox.com/platform/amp/policy-and-politics/2019/10/7/20898512/poll-democratic-republican-wall-street-regulation) of all voters supporting it.
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