# Japan is pretty nonchalant about COVID-19--and that's OK?! **URL:** \ **Category:** The Quarantine Zone\ **Tags:** covid-quarantine\ **Created:** [March 24, 2020, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/japan-is-pretty-nonchalant-about-covid-19-and-thats-ok/850137 "2020-03-24T01:10:31Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [March 30, 2020, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/japan-is-pretty-nonchalant-about-covid-19-and-thats-ok/850137/61 "2020-03-30T17:04:27Z")
[Japan is closed](https://soranews24.com/2020/03/30/japan-to-ban-entry-to-foreign-travelers-from-the-u-s-china-most-of-europe/). (The [moose](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Moose_(M*A*S*H)#Detailed_story) out front should have told you.) ---
**Author:** ![Saturn\_Dreams](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/dc4da7/32.png) [@Saturn\_Dreams](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saturn_Dreams)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/japan-is-pretty-nonchalant-about-covid-19-and-thats-ok/850137/62 "2020-03-31T00:39:52Z")
> [@DinoR](#): > > That might not be as accurate as you think. Those most at risk of death have plenty of other potential causes of death on a daily basis and are just waiting on that last straw to drop. If they haven’t even been tested for COVID 19, the death likely gets attributed to something else. Currently, deaths that are attributed to respiratory illnesses are being tested postmortem for SARS-CoV-2. If they come back positive, the deaths are recorded as being COVID-19 related. There were a handful of cases in the news where “new” infections were found after the patient’s death. Even assuming non-tested COVID-19 deaths get attributed to something else, it’s going to show up in the numbers later on as average numbers for other deaths will see unusual spikes. Even though everyone pretty much knows the number of infected is grossly understated, the general consensus among the public and public commentators is that the number of deaths is a fairly reliable barometer. ---
**Author:** ![ftg](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ftg/32/2801_2.png) [@ftg](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ftg)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 1:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/japan-is-pretty-nonchalant-about-covid-19-and-thats-ok/850137/63 "2020-03-31T13:27:23Z")
> [@Darren\_Garrison](#): > > [Japan is closed](https://soranews24.com/2020/03/30/japan-to-ban-entry-to-foreign-travelers-from-the-u-s-china-most-of-europe/). (The [moose](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Moose_(M*A*S*H)#Detailed_story) out front should have told you.) The ghost of Adm. Perry disapproves. ---
**Author:** ![Folacin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/folacin/32/3195_2.png) [@Folacin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Folacin)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/japan-is-pretty-nonchalant-about-covid-19-and-thats-ok/850137/64 "2020-03-31T14:10:02Z")
> [@Darren\_Garrison](#): > > [Japan is closed](https://soranews24.com/2020/03/30/japan-to-ban-entry-to-foreign-travelers-from-the-u-s-china-most-of-europe/). (The [moose](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Moose_(M*A*S*H)#Detailed_story) out front should have told you.) Certainly don’t want to take any chance that the horse might wander back into the barn, after all. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 2:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/japan-is-pretty-nonchalant-about-covid-19-and-thats-ok/850137/65 "2020-03-31T14:36:19Z")
I don’t believe Japan’s numbers one iota more than I believe China’s. Japanese bureaucracies are famous for slow-walking and ass-covering. Also, consider that Japan (like many wealthy countries) has an unsustainable demographic problem with far too many old people’s pensions being funded by a smaller population of younger workers. Here in the US we have Glenn Beck and other Fox nutjobs openly floating trial balloons that grandma should die to save the economy. So I can only imagine conversations happening that may be happening behind closed doors in places like Japan and Bulgaria. Introduced in the right locations, this virus could solve a lot of financial problem for those governments. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 2:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/japan-is-pretty-nonchalant-about-covid-19-and-thats-ok/850137/66 "2020-03-31T14:52:41Z")
I have no doubt that Japan’s ministries are misclassfying COVID cases, either intentionally or not. But to Alessan’s point, the number of ICU patients and dead are probably the real indicators of the severity of the outbreak. It’s obviously crucial for Japan to do things to get ahead of the virus, as once a health system falls behind, it’s screwed. So far, Japan seems to have avoided a major crisis, for reasons that aren’t yet clear. Maybe they’re just lucky and maybe their luck will run out. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/japan-is-pretty-nonchalant-about-covid-19-and-thats-ok/850137/67 "2020-03-31T18:04:19Z")
> [@Saturn\_Dreams](#): > > Even assuming non-tested COVID-19 deaths get attributed to something else, it’s going to show up in the numbers later on as average numbers for other deaths will see unusual spikes. There is going to be a relatively long lag time for that kind of analysis, though. Compared to highly publicized daily updates of numbers of infected and dead due to COVID 19 we could be looking at having to tweak out estimates of related deaths weeks to months later. If we are looking for a reliable metric for the effectiveness of current interventions and to guide future actions, deaths due to the disease has some real issues. It is best when the other numbers are reliable but can suffer when those numbers are unreliable and inaccurate. ---
**Author:** ![Babale](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/babale/32/15666_2.png) [@Babale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Babale)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/japan-is-pretty-nonchalant-about-covid-19-and-thats-ok/850137/68 "2020-03-31T18:34:38Z")
They’re up to almost 2,000 sick today. I don’t think hey dodged this bullet at all. ---
**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\ **Post date:** [March 31, 2020, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/japan-is-pretty-nonchalant-about-covid-19-and-thats-ok/850137/69 "2020-03-31T19:36:51Z")
I think they’re using some built in and ad hoc ways of fiddling the numbers. I don’t discount that they wear a lot of masks and aren’t a touchy feely society but these numbers just seem hinky. That iron clad rule that they only release pneumonia reports every three years, lung disease pandemic not changing that, is just indefensible. Eta: taking a week to double at this point would be a “dodging the bullet” in many ways. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2020, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/japan-is-pretty-nonchalant-about-covid-19-and-thats-ok/850137/70 "2020-04-02T15:17:34Z")
What do you all make of the suggestion that the [BCG vaccine](https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-could-tb-vaccine-offer-protection#Whymight-BCG-work-against-COVID-19?) provides some degree of protection against COVID-19? Japan has mandated it since the late 40s. Then again, France mandated it from [1950 to 2007](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BCG_vaccine#Europe), so unless the spread in France is mostly among immigrants, that doesn’t seem to explain the difference between Europe/US and Japan. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [April 2, 2020, 4:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/japan-is-pretty-nonchalant-about-covid-19-and-thats-ok/850137/71 "2020-04-02T16:33:50Z")
> [@scr4](#): > > What do you all make of the suggestion that the [BCG vaccine](https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/covid-19-could-tb-vaccine-offer-protection#Whymight-BCG-work-against-COVID-19?) provides some degree of protection against COVID-19? Japan has mandated it since the late 40s. > > Then again, France mandated it from [1950 to 2007](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BCG_vaccine#Europe), so unless the spread in France is mostly among immigrants, that doesn’t seem to explain the difference between Europe/US and Japan. If French infections were largely among immigrants then the per capita number of infected would be significantly lower in France than in bordering nations. > **[One chart compares coronavirus cases per capita in the hardest-hit countries...](https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-cases-per-capita-chart-countries-2020-3)** > > Switzerland tops the list, with 1,340 coronavirus cases per million residents. The US, by contrast, has only 210 cases per million people. And it does seem to be. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2020, 10:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/japan-is-pretty-nonchalant-about-covid-19-and-thats-ok/850137/72 "2020-04-04T10:44:22Z")
Japan is getting [hit harder](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/04/national/coronavirus-cases-japan-3000/#.Xohj13IRXIU). > [@](#): > > The capital reported 118 new COVID-19 infections on Saturday, marking the first time the single-day total has surpassed the century mark as Japan continues to grapple with the coronavirus pandemic. > > The figure brings the total in Tokyo to 891, putting more pressure on Prime Minister Shinzo Abe to declare a state of emergency to curb the rapid spread of COVID-19, the respiratory disease caused by the virus. My Japanese friends report overconfidence among many people, with lots of drinking and karaoke going on. It’s not over yet. ---
**Author:** ![Darren\_Garrison](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/darren_garrison/32/92_2.png) [@Darren\_Garrison](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darren_Garrison)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2020, 11:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/japan-is-pretty-nonchalant-about-covid-19-and-thats-ok/850137/73 "2020-04-04T11:22:03Z")
> [@TokyoBayer](#): > > Japan is getting [hit harder](https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/04/04/national/coronavirus-cases-japan-3000/#.Xohj13IRXIU). My Japanese friends report overconfidence among many people, with lots of drinking and karaoke going on. It’s not over yet. [Some of the streets](https://soranews24.com/2020/04/04/empty-akihabara-tokyos-otaku-district-hit-hard-by-coronavirus-outbreak%e3%80%90photos%e3%80%91/) [are pretty empty](https://soranews24.com/2020/04/04/harajuku-during-the-coronavirus-outbreak-%e3%80%90photos%e3%80%91/). ---
**Author:** ![Richard323](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8edcca/32.png) [@Richard323](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Richard323)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2020, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/japan-is-pretty-nonchalant-about-covid-19-and-thats-ok/850137/75 "2020-04-04T12:09:38Z")
In this country with a rich flora, there are also many allergic people who suffer from flowering pine trees in spring and wormwood in the fall, and in intervals from PM2.5 particles flying from China. In short, wearing masks is also a social norm. The habit of wearing masks that are worn both in the country and on foreign trips probably saved some percent of the Japanese from premature infection. ---
**Author:** ![scr4](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/59ef9b/32.png) [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)\ **Post date:** [April 4, 2020, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/japan-is-pretty-nonchalant-about-covid-19-and-thats-ok/850137/76 "2020-04-04T13:32:11Z")
> [@Richard323](#): > > In this country with a rich flora, there are also many allergic people who suffer from flowering pine trees in spring and wormwood in the fall, and in intervals from PM2.5 particles flying from China. In short, wearing masks is also a social norm. The habit of wearing masks that are worn both in the country and on foreign trips probably saved some percent of the Japanese from premature infection. It’s common, but hardly the “social norm.” Even in a photo chosen for an [article on Japan’s “mask culture”,](http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/AJ201912070015.html) only about 1/2 of the people in the picture are wearing masks. And that’s much higher percentage than I commonly saw. ---
**Author:** ![Saturn\_Dreams](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/dc4da7/32.png) [@Saturn\_Dreams](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saturn_Dreams)\ **Post date:** [April 6, 2020, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/japan-is-pretty-nonchalant-about-covid-19-and-thats-ok/850137/77 "2020-04-06T01:52:56Z")
The word in Japan is that they’re ready to declare a state of emergency as early as tonight. They have to put the finishing touches on some legislation wording when SoE come into effect. The problem is, no one is sure what’s going to change because of this. The government has already said the law does not give them the legal authority to stop people from going outside. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2020, 4:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/japan-is-pretty-nonchalant-about-covid-19-and-thats-ok/850137/78 "2020-04-18T04:25:32Z")
Japan is now facing [a medical crisis](https://apnews.com/9140ddd7283d534d8464778d9c4bd92a). > [@](#): > > Hospitals in Japan are increasingly turning away sick people as the country struggles with surging coronavirus infections and its emergency medical system collapses. > > In one recent case, an ambulance carrying a man with a fever and difficulty breathing was rejected by 80 hospitals and forced to search for hours for a hospital in downtown Tokyo that would treat him. Another feverish man finally reached a hospital after paramedics unsuccessfully contacted 40 clinics. > > The Japanese Association for Acute Medicine and the Japanese Society for Emergency Medicine say many hospital emergency rooms are refusing to treat people including those suffering strokes, heart attacks and external injuries. > > Japan initially seemed to have controlled the outbreak by going after clusters of infections in specific places, usually enclosed spaces such as clubs, gyms and meeting venues. But the spread of virus outpaced this approach and most new cases are untraceable. > > The outbreak has highlighted underlying weaknesses in medical care in Japan, which has long been praised for its high quality insurance system and reasonable costs. Apart from a general unwillingness to embrace social distancing, experts fault government incompetence and a widespread shortage of the protective gear and equipment medical workers need to do their jobs. > > Japan lacks enough hospital beds, medical workers or equipment. Forcing hospitalization of anyone with the virus, even those with mild symptoms, has left hospitals overcrowded and understaffed. > > The “collapse of emergency medicine” has already happened, a precursor to the overall collapse of medicine, the Japanese Association for Acute Medicine and the Japanese Society for Emergency Medicine said in a joint statement. By turning away patients, hospitals are putting an excessive burden on the limited number of advanced and critical emergency centers, the groups said. Japan had several months in which to prepare for this, but wasted it. Reports from my friends in Japan say that nothing was being done. The government was not getting ready and that it’s insane that they were not preparing more such as manufacturing more masks and other PPE. Here is [another story](http://www.asahi.com/ajw/articles/13305776) discussing the situation. It talks about a small hospital (331 beds) what was not set up to handle patients with infectious diseases and then had to accept more and more of them. Tokyo’s hospitals are overwhelmed. > [@](#): > > By March 28, all beds at designated medical institutions for specified infectious diseases were full. > > Newly diagnosed COVID-19 patients had nowhere to go. > > Alarmed at the direction the health crisis was taking, the Kawakita hospital set up 38 beds on one of its floors for COVID-19 patients. It also started accepting people with severe symptoms whose health condition was rapidly deteriorating. > > On March 31, a doctor-in-training at the hospital tested positive for the virus, prompting 17 other trainees to stay home. The hospital temporarily stopped accepting general emergency patients. > > On April 15, staff set up spacious white tents on the hospital’s premises. and > [@](#): > > “The collapse of the medical care system is about to begin. That’s what I thought,” said a respiratory medicine doctor who works at a general hospital in the capital on hearing the news. > > “Hospitals that are only capable to see patients with mild symptoms have now no choice but to make beds available to take in those with severe symptoms,” the doctor said. > > “The situation has the potential to lead to a devastating inferno,” the doctor said. > > The outpatient division at the hospital where the doctor works is already stretched beyond capacity with patients brought in by ambulance, those with a referral from another medical institution and walk-ins. > > “Staff have been so preoccupied with handling these patients that they are not able to give sufficient attention to non-coronavirus patients," the doctor said. "The hospital has lost its function as a local base hospital.” Not good at all. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/japan-is-pretty-nonchalant-about-covid-19-and-thats-ok/850137.md?page=3)