# Jeb Bush campaign for POTUS thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 16, 2015, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672 "2015-06-16T13:58:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 13
**Author:** ![Zakalwe](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/zakalwe/32/270_2.png) [@Zakalwe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zakalwe)\ **Post date:** [October 17, 2015, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/241 "2015-10-17T02:33:08Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > OK, other than _that_, he kept us safe. So, other than that, Mrs. Lincoln, how was the play? ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/242 "2015-10-23T15:42:35Z")
Just announced this morning but [the Bush campaign is cutting payroll by 40%](http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/23/bush-campaign-downsizes-staff-cuts-payroll-costs-by-40-source.html) across the board. I’m not saying this is the end for JEB! but unless he gets a big infusion of cash soon this may be the moment we remember as the beginning of the end. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/243 "2015-10-23T16:40:41Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Just announced this morning but [the Bush campaign is cutting payroll by 40%](http://www.cnbc.com/2015/10/23/bush-campaign-downsizes-staff-cuts-payroll-costs-by-40-source.html) across the board. > > I’m not saying this is the end for JEB! but unless he gets a big infusion of cash soon this may be the moment we remember as the beginning of the end. Does this mean the exclamation point is going to be laid off? ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/244 "2015-10-23T16:47:51Z")
> [@GrandWino](#): > > Does this mean the exclamation point is going to be laid off? Both. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/245 "2015-10-23T16:51:15Z")
> [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > I’m not saying this is the end for JEB! but unless he gets a big infusion of cash soon this may be the moment we remember as the beginning of the end. He has 10.2 million in funds inside the campaign. He’s got stupid amounts of PAC money for supporting ad buys. He spent [11.5 million last quarter](http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/election-2016-campaign-money-race.html) (top in his party and second only to Clinton). Assuming the cuts on other stuff are also close to 40% his new rate of spending is about 2.3 million a month. This let’s him keep running at that same pace even without raising a single dollar till mid February when votes start being cast. Even with greatly reduced fundraising (he was still second in the GO field last quarter) and the extra costs of get out the vote, he likely isn’t broke till at least mid-March. By that point he’s either out of the race anyway or can expect funds to show up because he’s solidly in it. He’s got issues. With these cuts, money isn’t really one of them. This isn’t the Perry spend till you are broke and then cut plan. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/246 "2015-10-23T16:59:21Z")
Didn’t McCain go through this same kind of belt-tightening before he got the nod in '08? ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/247 "2015-10-23T17:14:50Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Predictwise now has Rubio barely ahead of Jeb! as favorite to win the GOP nomination. He’s shown as significantly more likely than Jeb! to win the White House if he is the nominee. > > Betfair agrees with Predictwise. Hillary is most likely to be the next President, but is less than even money. Rubio is 2nd most likely. Four others are about tied with roughly 8% chance each: Bush, Biden, Sanders, Trump. (In distant 7th-place for Oval Office likelihood, as predicted by both Predictwise and Betfair, is … Ben Carson.) Update is that Predictwise has Bush now down to 9% with Rubio at 12. Trump is at 7 and Carson 3. Sanders is 8%. Clinton is over even money now at 52%. Betfair pretty much agrees. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/248 "2015-10-23T17:43:21Z")
> [@GrandWino](#): > > Didn’t McCain go through this same kind of belt-tightening before he got the nod in '08? McCain knew how to run an insurgent campaign and was more comfortable with it anyway. He started out in 2007 running a front-runner’s campaign with a huge staff and spending lots of money, and then when the money dried up he went with a more 2000-style campaign. Jeb is a Bush. He either spends tons of money or he dies. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/249 "2015-10-23T18:00:07Z")
Well things are getting a mite weird. There are hints that the old methods aren’t working any more, that a ton of money to buy advertising is not the lethal ammunition it once was. Let us not forget, or if we do I will gleefully remind, that the original Jeb! plan was to suck up so much money, everybody else would just kind of mumble their way off stage. And there’s that New Hampshire ad buy, as outlined here: [http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-10-21/ad-blitz-fails-to-lift-jeb-bush-s-poll-numbers-in-new-hampshire-bloomberg-politics-saint-anselm-poll](http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2015-10-21/ad-blitz-fails-to-lift-jeb-bush-s-poll-numbers-in-new-hampshire-bloomberg-politics-saint-anselm-poll) Spending a metric buttload of bucks is supposed to work, it always worked before, so what the fuck is going one, here? Dare we hope that Big Money is losing its grip on our politics? Now, Universe, I know I haven’t been a very good pantheist, but if you could give me this one sign… ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/250 "2015-10-23T18:01:20Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > …Jeb is a Bush. He either spends tons of money or he dies. Or spends tons of money _and_ dies. Dare we hope? We do dare, do dare, all the livelong day! ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 6:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/251 "2015-10-23T18:13:20Z")
> [@GrandWino](#): > > Didn’t McCain go through this same kind of belt-tightening before he got the nod in '08? Yeah and he was able to play the “maverick” card to his benefit. The only card JEB! has to play is the “I’m another Bush” card and that doesn’t seem to be catching on with the GOP base in this election cycle. The base seems to want bomb throwers at this point, though I suppose that could change. I realize the JEB! campaign still has a good amount of cash on hand but if he doesn’t turn this around in the next few weeks it seems likely those big donors will start looking at other options. I suspect Thirsty Boy Rubio is likely to benefit the most if that happens. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/252 "2015-10-23T18:29:31Z")
He’s got that whole “HypnoToad” thing going on! When he stared into me while reaching for a water bottle, I went totally blank and started thinking how what we really need is a vigorous young conservative to dish up the same tired old bullshit… ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/253 "2015-10-23T18:44:09Z")
I guess Jeb W Bush’s message of, “Let’s ignore the nation’s problems in favor of tax cuts for the wealthy, maybe start a war or two to drive the debt through the roof to force through the unspoken GOP agenda of ending social security and Medicare, because old people who spent their lives having the profits from their labor skimmed by the corporate class are now a bunch of public moochers who are taking food out of the mouths of productive, expoitable young laborers” just isn’t resonating with the public. It is probably too much to ask the GOP base to notice that every GOP candidate has the same message… ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [October 23, 2015, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/254 "2015-10-23T20:51:01Z")
Jeb’s problem is that what advantage he has is subject to a positive-feedback loop. His advantage is money, and he only has the money because he has the advantage. If another establishment politician like Rubio starts to look like a better bet, then money will switch over to him… which will make him an even better bet, which will shift even more money, and so on. Even a lot of the money that Jeb already has isn’t actually his; it’s in the hands of PACs. Yes, yes, we all know that the money was donated with Jeb’s name on it, but it still means that those millions can be shifted to another candidate against Jeb’s will. ---
**Author:** ![nani](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/58956e/32.png) [@nani](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nani)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2015, 6:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/255 "2015-10-24T06:03:05Z")
George: Jeb,[Mom and Dad wanna talk to you](http://politicalwire.com/2015/10/23/bush-to-hunker-down-with-family-to-assess-bid/). Jeb: Uh oh. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2015, 6:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/256 "2015-10-24T06:42:45Z")
This time is not about the neighbor’s pets disappearing. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2015, 2:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/257 "2015-10-24T14:09:17Z")
> [@Ukulele\_Ike](#): > > Not if he keeps up his unfortunate habit of speaking in public. > > [Jeb Bush Can't Remember That Unforgettable Space Shuttle Disaster He'll Never Forget](http://wonkette.com/594910/jeb-bush-cant-remember-that-unforgettable-space-shuttle-disaster-hell-never-forget) This made my day. Thanks! Here’s CNN on Jeb!'s campaign staff cuts, and the campaign’s valiant spin efforts: [http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/23/politics/jeb-bush-campaign-salaries-2016-election/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/23/politics/jeb-bush-campaign-salaries-2016-election/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2015, 3:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/258 "2015-10-24T15:14:06Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Here’s CNN on Jeb!'s campaign staff cuts, and the campaign’s valiant spin efforts: [http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/23/politics/jeb-bush-campaign-salaries-2016-election/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2015/10/23/politics/jeb-bush-campaign-salaries-2016-election/index.html) There’s one thing in there that I like. > [@](#): > > According to internal campaign talking points obtained by CNN, the campaign will slash payroll costs by 40% starting this week, cutting salaries across the board with the exception of most entry-level staff. Of course, it just says it’s a talking point, doesn’t say if it’s true. Still, doesn’t that run counter to the “CEOs make the world go 'round” Republican catechism? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2015, 3:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/259 "2015-10-24T15:27:32Z")
How much are they paid now? Might be that its so low, any actual cut would be an embarrassment and an invitation to an exit interview. And note the flexibility tucked into “\*most \*entry level staff”. ---
**Author:** ![Derleth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Derleth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Derleth)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2015, 10:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/260 "2015-10-24T22:23:07Z")
[Bush 41, 91, is not a happy one](http://www.nytimes.com/2015/10/25/us/politics/watching-gop-race-bush-41-is-glad-to-be-old.html): > [@New York Times](#): > > He has given up his “C.S.I.” reruns, consuming campaign coverage on Fox News — intently but fretfully — when he is perched in front of the television in his Houston home. > > He reads three print newspapers daily, dials into briefings given by advisers to his son Jeb’s presidential campaign and stays up late to watch prime-time debates — after sitting through the so-called undercard, too. > > Former President George Bush, 91 and frail, is straining to understand an election season that has, for his son and the Republican Party, lurched sharply and stunningly off script. And he is often bewildered by what he sees. This isn’t about senility. There’s no indication he’s mentally any worse than anyone else would be in their early nineties. This is about the age of the current iteration of the GOP, and the fact party alignments don’t last forever, and the fact the GOP did the worst possible thing for long-term success: Positioned itself as the party opposed to social change. Well, society changed, and now the GOP no longer has a suitable suitor to take it to the big dance. The fact George HW Bush didn’t see this coming is very telling. The fact he watches Fox News is even more diagnostic. There was a time when this iteration of the GOP could coin the phrase “reality-based community” as a description of what it _wasn’t_ and still be quite successful, but, as any adult should have figured out, reality has a way of asserting itself quite forcefully. They put the lede in the very next paragraph: > [@](#): > > “I’m getting old,” he tells friends, appraising today’s politics, “at just the right time.” He’s still got his sense of dramatic appropriateness, at least. A little later they get to the jokes: > [@](#): > > “I have no feeling for the electorate anymore,” said John H. Sununu, the former New Hampshire governor who helped the elder Mr. Bush win the 1988 primary there and went on to serve as his White House chief of staff. “It is not responding the way it used to. Their priorities are so different that if I tried to analyze it I’d be making it up.” > > Mr. Sununu, like many establishment-aligned Republicans, is especially mystified by Mr. Trump’s appeal. “He supports single-payer federal health care and he loves eminent domain, and the Tea Party hates both of those things,” he said. “So explain to me how people are voting on issues.” The perfect response has already been written, and, of course, it comes straight from Trump’s followers’ generation: > [@Ballad Of A Thin Man by Bob Dylan](#): > > You walk into the room > With your pencil in your hand > You see somebody naked > And you say, “Who is that man?” > You try so hard > But you don’t understand > Just what you’ll say > When you get home > > Because something is happening here > But you don’t know what it is > Do you, Mister Jones? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672.md?page=12) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672.md?page=14)