# Jeb Bush campaign for POTUS thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 16, 2015, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672 "2015-06-16T13:58:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 21
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/401 "2016-01-01T16:51:13Z")
> [@Mr\_Quatro](#): > > Mr Trump is the front runner now, but like in any race he can be replaced. Money is nice and the truth is better. > > Jeb Bush can beat Hillary Clinton without bashing women or her husband. > > Someone has a secret hiding in a closet somewhere … Mr Trump can get dumped and it wouldn’t surprise me if the democrats do the dumping leaving the door open for honest Jeb to become the next POTUS. Predictwise shows Chris Christie as most likely (even-money) to win in November _if he gets the nomination_; Rubio and Trump tied for 2nd (3-2 against); Bush and Cruz least likely among frontrunners (worse than 2-1 against). I think the GOP Establishment will turn, in despair and desperation, to Rubio as their champion. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/402 "2016-01-01T17:10:31Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > Except that, at least according to what I have seen, Trump isn’t spending much of his own money, not on advertising anyway. He just drowns out everyone else by generating lots of buzz and getting free media attention. Do you mean to say that the whole thing is a put-up job by the Eevul Librul Media ™ cynically playing on Trump’s vanity to get him as the Republican candidate and so get a Democrat in the White House? I’m shocked, I tell you, shocked. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/403 "2016-01-01T17:39:29Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > Predictwise shows Chris Christie as most likely (even-money) to win in November _if he gets the nomination_; Rubio and Trump tied for 2nd (3-2 against); Bush and Cruz least likely among frontrunners (worse than 2-1 against). I think the GOP Establishment will turn, in despair and desperation, to Rubio as their champion. I didn’t check, but taking your sorta-cite as fact … If the best odds available favor Christie to beat the Democrats, why would the GOP Establishment (to the degree they’re a single coherent body) rally around a second rate choice? And why Rubio over Trump if the best available odds say they’re a dead heat? I don’t mean to say I think you’re wrong. Rather that I haven’t seen you explain why you’re right. I’d like to see the bridge between your data and your conclusions. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 5:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/404 "2016-01-01T17:47:59Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > If the best odds available favor Christie to beat the Democrats, why would the GOP Establishment (to the degree they’re a single coherent body) rally around a second rate choice? Presumably they don’t buy Predictwise’s analysis. I don’t either. Between the un-exorcised ghosts of Bridgegate, Christie’s weak (even by Republican standards) brain-to-mouth filtration system, wingnut annoyance at his being civil to That N\*\*\*\*r In The White House, and the “fat slob” factor, I don’t see how anyone could reasonably conclude that he’s the strongest general-election candidate. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 6:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/405 "2016-01-01T18:35:49Z")
Yeah, for all those reasons, I think Christie is far more likely to lose than win in Nov. 2016, assuming he gets the GOP nomination at _all_, which I really doubt he will. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/406 "2016-01-01T19:30:18Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > If the best odds available favor Christie to beat the Democrats, why would the GOP Establishment (to the degree they’re a single coherent body) rally around a second rate choice? And why Rubio over Trump if the best available odds say they’re a dead heat? I derived the odds from [this page](http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner/), where Christie is shown as 6% likely to win the nomination and 3% to win the White House. Since those figures are ± 0.5%, the “even-money” claim was _very_ rough. Predictwise aggregates betting lines from various sportsbooks. I’d expect it to be more accurate than any particular pundit except perhaps Nate Silver. Is he giving detailed probabilities yet? As far as Christie’s chances in the general election, note that he’s very unlikely to win the nomination. _If he does win the nomination it may be due to some specific event (e.g. act of heroism) that would carry through to the general election._ That might explain the Predictwise numbers (though it invalidates my oversimplified summary). I don’t think Christie is a darling of the GOP establishment and certainly neither Cruz nor Trump is. By process of elimination I think the GOP establishemnt will _have_ to unite behind Rubio, unless Jeb! or Kasich suddenly comes to life. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [January 1, 2016, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/407 "2016-01-01T20:46:55Z")
Thanks. It makes more sense now. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2016, 6:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/408 "2016-01-02T06:54:03Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > he doesn’t need to pay for access to the president to get what he wants, he’ll just be the president. Trump won’t be the president. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2016, 7:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/409 "2016-01-02T07:21:33Z")
> [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](#): > > Trump won’t be the president. I very much hope you’re right, and I’m not predicting he’ll win. I’m just saying that he’d rather be president than pay someone else to do his bidding as president; cut out the middleman. ---
**Author:** ![Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/try2b_comprehensive/32/65_2.png) [@Try2B\_Comprehensive](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Try2B_Comprehensive)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2016, 8:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/410 "2016-01-02T08:49:35Z")
> [@Robot\_Arm](#): > > I very much hope you’re right, and I’m not predicting he’ll win. I’m just saying that he’d rather be president than pay someone else to do his bidding as president; cut out the middleman. I can dig it- he would be able to directly represent the billionaires’ interest in that case. But unless he is an especially magical elf, Trump’s campaign can never make the transition from the primary to the general and persuade enough of the people he’s insulted to vote for him. Trump can’t win without a miracle IMHO. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [January 2, 2016, 10:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/411 "2016-01-02T22:26:12Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > …As far as Christie’s chances in the general election, note that he’s very unlikely to win the nomination. _If he does win the nomination it may be due to some specific event (e.g. act of heroism) that would carry through to the general election._… :: reaches for DVD of _The Manchurian Candidate_ :: ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2016, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/412 "2016-01-03T18:57:45Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > I derived the odds from [this page](http://predictwise.com/politics/2016-president-winner/), where Christie is shown as 6% likely to win the nomination and 3% to win the White House. Basically, that means “if Christie can overcome all the handicaps (see my previous post, and include any I forgot) standing in the way of winning the nomination, then he has an even-money chance of winning the general election”. That’s true, but not very meaningful; one might as well say “if Cruz puts the fundie wackadoodle stuff behind him…” or “if Jeb shows signs of having more than one molecule of testosterone in his body…” or whatever. ---
**Author:** ![Ukulele\_Ike](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/df788c/32.png) [@Ukulele\_Ike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ukulele_Ike)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2016, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/413 "2016-01-03T19:46:41Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > :: reaches for DVD of _The Manchurian Candidate_ :: I’m trying to picture Chris Christie performing ANY act of heroism. Disarming a maddened gunman? Rescuing a beautiful damsel from a dragon? Getting a cat out of a tree? I’m afraid my imagination is insufficient to the task. ---
**Author:** ![Ukulele\_Ike](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/df788c/32.png) [@Ukulele\_Ike](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ukulele_Ike)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2016, 7:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/414 "2016-01-03T19:48:18Z")
How about using him to plug a hole in a dike, saving all of Holland from flooding…? ---
**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2016, 8:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/415 "2016-01-03T20:17:22Z")
> [@Ukulele\_Ike](#): > > How about using him to plug a hole in a dike, saving all of Holland from flooding…? More possible than the other suggested acts of heroism. However, the GOP primary voters are by and large too xenophobic for that to help him. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2016, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/416 "2016-01-03T20:51:31Z")
Any right-thinking American might well wonder why Gov. Christie is so anxious to assist the Dutch. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 4:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/417 "2016-01-04T16:28:22Z")
As for plugging holes in dikes, most of the GOP is anti-LGBT, too. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 4:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/418 "2016-01-04T16:49:09Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > As for plugging holes in dikes, most of the GOP is anti-LGBT, too. Or they might think such an action would convert them. Back to Jebbie, it sure is hard to see his path to victory. You’ve got him and Rubio, Kasich, and Christie all jockeying for position in the establishment lane. Meanwhile Trump is solidifying the outsider lane with the exception of Iowa which he could lose to Cruz. I don’t see Jeb as any better than 4th in Iowa, certainly not doing any better in NH, and I’m not seeing him winning SC, either. MAYBE he can get one rival to drop from the establishment lane at that point, but I’m not betting on it. The longer the four of them divide the sane vote, the more likely a Trump nomination becomes. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/419 "2016-01-04T17:08:32Z")
Mitt says he warned Jeb! awhile back: [GOP presidential candidate still dreams of 'Mitt 2016,' says Romney](http://www.aol.com/article/2016/01/04/gop-presidential-candidate-still-dreams-of-mitt-2016/21291325/) ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2016, 5:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/420 "2016-01-04T17:33:43Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Mitt says he warned Jeb! awhile back: [News, Politics, Sports, Mail & Latest Headlines - AOL.com](http://www.aol.com/article/2016/01/04/gop-presidential-candidate-still-dreams-of-mitt-2016/21291325/) Of course, that was last January when everybody in politics assumed that it would be Jeb v Hillary in 2016. I don’t know if Romney foresaw what a terrible candidate Jeb would be in the pre-primary phase. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672.md?page=20) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672.md?page=22)