# Jeb Bush campaign for POTUS thread **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [June 16, 2015, 1:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672 "2015-06-16T13:58:22Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [August 17, 2015, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/61 "2015-08-17T13:41:43Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > So why do you think he lost? He presided over a recession. People always vote with their wallets. Pretend that GWB’s presidency had been a success: we defeated Al Quaeda, we were greeted as liberators by the Iraqis and built a peaceful constitutional democracy there, the federal response to Katrina wasn’t awful, and so on. McCain would still have lost the 2008 election thanks to the collapsing economy. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 19, 2015, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/62 "2015-08-19T01:48:14Z")
Absolutely brutal, Trump-level bad poll for Jeb: [http://pollingreport.com/A-B.htm#Jeb%20Bush](http://pollingreport.com/A-B.htm#Jeb%20Bush) 56% of voters disapprove of Jeb Bush. Only Trump is worse. Kasich, Carson, and Fiorina are the only Republicans with net positive ratings, although all three are still relatively unknown to voters. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 24, 2015, 10:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/63 "2015-08-24T22:32:15Z")
Jeb continues his stellar campaigning – now the problem of anchor babies is the fault of [“Asian people”](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/jeb-bush-anchor-babies-asian-immigrants). Way to go Jeb! ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2015, 1:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/64 "2015-08-27T13:28:58Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Jeb continues his stellar campaigning – now the problem of anchor babies is the fault of [“Asian people”](http://talkingpointsmemo.com/livewire/jeb-bush-anchor-babies-asian-immigrants). Way to go Jeb! For a guy who had the nomination sewn up, he sucks donkey dick as a campaigner. He gave the Republicans what they really need- another ethnic group pissed off at them. “I LOVE brown people, it’s the fucking Mongol horde I can’t stand”. Fucking unbelievable. Maybe they’ll nominate Trump after all. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2015, 1:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/65 "2015-08-27T13:30:20Z")
I’ve said for awhile that Jeb won’t be the nominee, although I didn’t expect him to be as bad a candidate as he’s been. Stick a fork in both the dynastic candidates. Our next President will not be someone related to a former President. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2015, 1:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/66 "2015-08-27T13:32:44Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’ve said for awhile that Jeb won’t be the nominee, although I didn’t expect him to be as bad a candidate as he’s been. > > Stick a fork in both the dynastic candidates. Our next President will not be someone related to a former President. I’ll save this prediction. It’s way too early for you to be making it, by the way. Haven’t you learned not to go against Nate Silver? ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2015, 1:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/67 "2015-08-27T13:53:08Z")
Right now, Nate Silver says the Democrats have an even chance to win the Presidency, and he believes Clinton has a 95% chance of winning the nomination. Which means that I have a better than even chance of being right that a dynastic candidate will not be the next President. And I believe that Silver is severely underestimating Clinton’s opponents on the Democratic side. He’s relying on a model(party choice) that has historically been right, but which is flawed and is not real data. If Gary Hart had dominated the endorsement game in 1987 he still would not have been the nominee. Clinton faces similar headwinds, although nothing so suddenly disqualifying. But the model does not account for candidates whose value falls precipitously after they get the endorsements. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2015, 2:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/68 "2015-08-27T14:23:49Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Right now, Nate Silver says the Democrats have an even chance to win the Presidency, and he believes Clinton has a 95% chance of winning the nomination. > > Which means that I have a better than even chance of being right that a dynastic candidate will not be the next President. No you don’t – 95/2 is 47.5, and I think Silver estimates Jeb’s chances at higher than 2.5% (which would be greater than 50 in total). > [@](#): > > And I believe that Silver is severely underestimating Clinton’s opponents on the Democratic side. He’s relying on a model(party choice) that has historically been right, but which is flawed and is not real data. If Gary Hart had dominated the endorsement game in 1987 he still would not have been the nominee. Clinton faces similar headwinds, although nothing so suddenly disqualifying. But the model does not account for candidates whose value falls precipitously after they get the endorsements. You can go on believing that Silver is misreading something, but that’s your (metaphorical) funeral. You thought Silver was wrong in 2012, and now you think he’s wrong in 2016. I’m inclined to stick with him. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2015, 2:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/69 "2015-08-27T14:29:03Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > No you don’t – 95/2 is 47.5, and I think Silver estimates Jeb’s chances at higher than 2.5% (which would be greater than 50 in total). C’mon. Do you think Jeb has much of as shot at the nomination? I’m conceding that Clinton can still win on the Dem side, but Jeb? No way. Too moderate, not good enough as a candidate. If a moderate wins, it’s going to be Kasich. > [@](#): > > You can go on believing that Silver is misreading something, but that’s your (metaphorical) funeral. You thought Silver was wrong in 2012, and now you think he’s wrong in 2016. I’m inclined to stick with him. Even though he’s not using real data? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2015, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/70 "2015-08-27T14:33:16Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > C’mon. Do you think Jeb has much of as shot at the nomination? I’m conceding that Clinton can still win on the Dem side, but Jeb? No way. Too moderate, not good enough as a candidate. If a moderate wins, it’s going to be Kasich. Not much of a shot, but greater than 5%? Sure. I’d put Jeb at about 20-25% chance at winning the Republican nomination (which is, I think, pretty close to where Silver puts him). > [@](#): > > Even though he’s not using real data? He’s using as much or more than you are. And he has a track record of _not making the exact same prediction as a failed one from 4 years ago_. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2015, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/71 "2015-08-27T14:51:14Z")
You know what just occurred to me about Jeb? This thread only has seventy-some posts. We’ve got more discussion going on about the third-tier candidates, and this is supposed to be one of the front-runners? The first step in a campaign is that people have to hear of you. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 27, 2015, 3:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/72 "2015-08-27T15:12:31Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > You know what just occurred to me about Jeb? This thread only has seventy-some posts. We’ve got more discussion going on about the third-tier candidates, and this is supposed to be one of the front-runners? The first step in a campaign is that people have to hear of you. What you noted is one of the reasons why IMHO is that Trump is a disaster for the Republicans, the longer he remains as the front runner the harder it will be for the GOP to move to the center as republicans have to do to win. Fine with me. ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [August 28, 2015, 12:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/73 "2015-08-28T12:52:04Z")
Eric Cantor has endorsed Jeb. > **[Eric Cantor endorses Jeb Bush for president | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2015/08/27/politics/jeb-bush-eric-cantor-endorsement/)** > > Former House Majority Leader Eric Cantor endorsed presidential candidate Jeb Bush on Thursday. Does this help? I don’t know. Trump doesn’t seem to think so. Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 14h14 hours ago Who wants the endorsement of a guy (@EricCantor) who lost in perhaps the greatest upset in the history of Congress ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2015, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/74 "2015-08-30T21:53:07Z")
> [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](#): > > Eric Cantor has endorsed Jeb. > > [http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/27/politics/jeb-bush-eric-cantor-endorsement/](http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/27/politics/jeb-bush-eric-cantor-endorsement/) > > Does this help? I don’t know. Trump doesn’t seem to think so. > Donald J. Trump ‏@realDonaldTrump 14h14 hours ago > Who wants the endorsement of a guy (@EricCantor) who lost in perhaps the greatest upset in the history of Congress I posted this in another thread, but it should be here: IMHO its is for the Jewish vote. Not very important as votes go, but as a professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University said recently (Benjamin Ginsberg) “The importance of the Jews isn’t their votes. They account for a huge share of the activist base of the Democratic Party and account for much of the money available to Democratic candidates.” Republicans know that and have attempted many times to get some of that activism but we have to thank the Tea Party for getting rid of Cantor and now there are no easy pickings for the Republican effort in this area. So this will have to do for now. With Cantor gone there are no more Republican Jewish senators and only just recently they got one representative from New York in the house. New York!?! That is enough for many conservatives to dismiss him. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2015, 1:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/75 "2015-08-31T13:42:37Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > …With Cantor gone there are no more Republican Jewish senators and only just recently they got one representative from New York in the house… Just to be clear, Cantor was not himself a U.S. senator, but a member of the House. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2015, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/76 "2015-08-31T14:51:34Z")
> [@GIGObuster](#): > > IMHO its is for the Jewish vote. Not very important as votes go, but as a professor of political science at Johns Hopkins University said recently (Benjamin Ginsberg) “The importance of the Jews isn’t their votes. They account for a huge share of the activist base of the Democratic Party and account for much of the money available to Democratic candidates.” Republicans know that and have attempted many times to get some of that activism The GOP has its own activists in the Christianist right and the Tea Party. They won’t ever get a big share of the Jewish vote, they don’t need Jewish money, and Jewish activism aside from the checkbook variety would largely be in places they’ve written off. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2015, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/77 "2015-08-31T15:06:14Z")
> [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Just to be clear, Cantor was not himself a U.S. senator, but a member of the House. :smack: Sorry, that was really a big goof. Still none in the senate. \*\*RTFirefly \*\*you are correct, but I do think Bush is looking at the big picture and since it is really unlikely that very conservatives will support Bush (His support or immigration reform is a big problem for them) means that as a more moderate candidate he will get more support from minorities and not only the Jews. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2015, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/78 "2015-09-07T01:34:54Z")
Every time I see this guy, he seems to be completely without passion. He comes across as being,well, tired. There just doesn’t seem to be much to him at all. I don’t give him much of a chance at all. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2015, 11:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/79 "2015-09-07T11:35:46Z")
[The way he puts it himself:](http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/elections-2016/jeb-bush/article29074546.html#storylink=cpy) > [@](#): > > “Here’s the deal: I don’t have anger in my heart,” he told about 200 people at a community center in Maitland Monday evening. “We shouldn’t be scolding people. We shouldn’t be saying outrageous things that turns people off to the conservative message.” > > “I’m not a grievance candidate,” he told more than 150 fans in Longwood, warning that the race was sure to be a long one and poll numbers would rise and fall. “I’m the tortoise in the race — but I’m a joyful tortoise.” A joyful tortoise. Inspiring message there, W2! ---
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2015, 12:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672/80 "2015-09-07T12:28:36Z")
Jeb does not come across as joyful to me. He comes across as irritable. I think he is shocked that he is not the leading candidate. He thought this was a lock for him and it’s not proving to be the case. I also agree with others who say that Trump has gotten into Jeb’s head. Here’s an article. > **[How Trump Got in Jeb’s Head](https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-trump-got-in-jebs-head)** > > The Donald gets away with endlessly mocking and belittling his opponents and, unlike the other Bushes, Jeb can’t handle it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/jeb-bush-campaign-for-potus-thread/722672.md?page=5)