# Job Report Should Help Obama.... \[monthly jobs report thread, July through September\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 3, 2012, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344 "2012-08-03T21:15:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2012, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/1 "2012-08-03T21:15:41Z")
… or [not](http://money.cnn.com/2012/08/03/investing/stocks-markets/index.htm?hpt=hp_t1)? > [@](#): > > The U.S. economy added 163,000 jobs in July, an improvement from an increase of just 64,000 in June, according to a government report. Economists surveyed by CNNMoney were predicting 95,000 jobs were added last month. ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2012, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/2 "2012-08-03T21:25:25Z")
It all depends on how you spin it. The economy apparently added more jobs than anticipated, which is 😃 for Obama, yet the unemployment rate inched up a tenth of a point to 8.3%, which is 😃 for Romney. I read that the actual rate, though, went from being 8.22% to 8.25% and it was just rounded up to 8.3%, so essentially everything has been unchanged since last month. The Obama team will say that this is a sign that the economy is improving, while Mittens and his minions will point to the higher unemployment rate and demonize the POTUS for it. Whichever argument will resonate more with voters is probably irrelevant, though, because most people have likely already factored in the sluggish economy into their election outlook. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2012, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/3 "2012-08-03T21:29:25Z")
Yes, it’s good for Obama. The fact that the unemployment rate went up by a tiny bit isn’t bad because it indicates more people were looking for work instead of sitting at home. Of course there are going to be 12 more of these before the election, so unless this kind of thing is sustained I don’t think anyone’s going to remember what the August 3 job report said. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2012, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/4 "2012-08-03T21:30:23Z")
Well, the stock market went way up on the jobs news, so they think it’s Good, at least for them. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [August 3, 2012, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/5 "2012-08-03T22:12:07Z")
I should have posted a link to the latest [unemployment](http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-57486102-503544/gop-seizes-on-unemployment-uptick-in-july-jobs-report/) news also. > [@](#): > > Unemployment, however, ticked up by a tenth of a point, from 8.2 percent in June to 8.3 percent in July. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2012, 2:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/6 "2012-08-04T02:26:24Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Yes, it’s good for Obama. The fact that the unemployment rate went up by a tiny bit isn’t bad because it indicates more people were looking for work instead of sitting at home. I hadn’t heard that. Is there actual evidence that this is true? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2012, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/7 "2012-08-04T02:27:33Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Yes, it’s good for Obama. The fact that the unemployment rate went up by a tiny bit isn’t bad because it indicates more people were looking for work instead of sitting at home. I hadn’t heard that. Is there actual evidence that this is true? And if it is, are most Americans actually going to understand that instead of just seeing the unemployment rate go up? Still, we’re just entering the silly season (August). What really matters is what happens in Sept and Oct. ---
**Author:** ![blondebear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/blondebear/32/1022_2.png) [@blondebear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/blondebear)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2012, 2:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/8 "2012-08-04T02:32:06Z")
According to my coworker, “The jobs report is a LIE…” The rest of the quote: “…just look at the story on Fox News!” ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2012, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/9 "2012-08-04T02:38:07Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I hadn’t heard that. Is there actual evidence that this is true? Jobs increased and the unemployment rate ticked up 0.03 percent or whatever it was. What’s the other explanation? > [@](#): > > And if it is, are most Americans actually going to understand that instead of just seeing the unemployment rate go up? I think so. If not, I don’t think a lot of people are going to get anxious over the unemployment rate being 8.3 percent instead of 8.2 percent. ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2012, 2:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/10 "2012-08-04T02:50:05Z")
I read somewhere today that no president has ever been reelected with unemployment over 8%. Even a small uptick moves the rate further above that benchmark, so the Obama camp can’t be pleased regardless of how they spin it for public consumption. ---
**Author:** ![MsWhatsit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/eb8c5e/32.png) [@MsWhatsit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MsWhatsit)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2012, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/11 "2012-08-04T02:56:18Z")
My hardcore conservative uncle posted the following on Facebook. I haven’t done any work to fact-check it or whatever; I’m providing it only as an example that for at least some people out there, no, this is not good for Obama. But one suspects that for these people, nothing would be good for Obama, including his personally discovering a cure for cancer and ending world hunger. > [@my uncle](#): > > You can’t believe anything any politiician says: Yesterday, the government reported that unemployment jumped to 8.3%. This is so much bull. What use to be reported as unemployment is now called the “U6 Figure.” I think they changed it under the Bush or Clinton administration to hide the real story from the public. Anyway, the U6 figure, the percentage of people actually out of work, jumped to nearly 15%, the highest unemployment since the depression. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2012, 4:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/12 "2012-08-04T04:11:59Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Jobs increased and the unemployment rate ticked up 0.03 percent or whatever it was. What’s the other explanation? Oh, OK. Previously, people just gave up. What you’re saying is that people aren’t giving up. That’s cold comfort. > [@](#): > > I think so. If not, I don’t think a lot of people are going to get anxious over the unemployment rate being 8.3 percent instead of 8.2 percent. The rate is going up. That’s what matters. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2012, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/13 "2012-08-04T04:27:54Z")
The Unemployment number is the metric people pay the most attention to, so that’s bad. But the report was mixed and the recovery is still moving along, so that’s good. I really think that whoever wins in 2012 will end up presiding over a very healthy economy as long as they don’t screw it up with huge deficits or something. ---
**Author:** ![RadioWave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/91b2a8/32.png) [@RadioWave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RadioWave)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2012, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/14 "2012-08-04T04:30:38Z")
I can’t find the raw U6 numbers but the [BBC](http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-19109249) has some statistics. > [@BBC News](#): > > There were also signs that Americans were optimistic about finding a job. The number of discouraged workers - people not looking for work because they believe there are no jobs - fell 267,000 to 852,000. If that number’s correct, then U6 should drop. ---
**Author:** ![amarone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e0b2c6/32.png) [@amarone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amarone)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2012, 1:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/15 "2012-08-04T13:08:40Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > JI don’t think a lot of people are going to get anxious over the unemployment rate being 8.3 percent instead of 8.2 percent. I think you credit the electorate with more intelligence than is warranted. For more detail on the employment numbers, see [here](http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/08/employment-another-fairly-weak-report.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29&utm_content=My+Yahoo). There are several charts that put the current numbers and recovery in historical perspective. ---
**Author:** ![waterj2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/858c86/32.png) [@waterj2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/waterj2)\ **Post date:** [August 4, 2012, 2:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/16 "2012-08-04T14:33:43Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > Jobs increased and the unemployment rate ticked up 0.03 percent or whatever it was. What’s the other explanation? I think it’s just noise. The jobs data and the unemployment data are from two different sources, with the unemployment data being based on a smaller sample. Going from 8.22% to 8.25% is not really statistically significant. ---
**Author:** ![amarone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e0b2c6/32.png) [@amarone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/amarone)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2012, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/17 "2012-09-08T12:23:26Z")
The August jobs report was issued yesterday. The numbers were poor - only 96,000 jobs created versus expectations of 125,000. And June and July numbers were revised downwards by a total of 41,000. However, because of the vagaries of how unemployment is calculated, the headline rate actually fell from 8.3 to 8.1% because fewer people were looking for work. So, more ammunition for both parties. The Dems can add another month to the number of successive months of job growth (even though several of them were less than is needed to cover population growth) and can point to a decrease in the headline rate. The Pubbies can claim (accurately) that the rate of job growth is anemic. More details [here](http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/09/august-employment-report-96000-jobs-81.html). Two more reports before the election, with the October report coming just four days before polling day. Is it possible for the Democrats to engineer good numbers in the final report? In theory, politicians cannot manipulate the numbers, but a commentator on CNBC yesterday reported that the October 2004 numbers were suspiciously good, with no obvious economic reason as to why. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2012, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/18 "2012-09-08T13:41:39Z")
Not sure what the commentator would be getting at, seeing as how the already low unemployment rate in October 2004 actually went up from 5.4% to 5.5%. [http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000](http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000) ---
**Author:** ![SpoilerVirgin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/4491bb/32.png) [@SpoilerVirgin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SpoilerVirgin)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2012, 2:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/19 "2012-09-08T14:10:27Z")
> [@Oakminster](#): > > I read somewhere today that no president has ever been reelected with unemployment over 8%. Except in 1932, 1936 and 1940. ---
**Author:** ![Andiethewestie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba9def/32.png) [@Andiethewestie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andiethewestie)\ **Post date:** [September 8, 2012, 3:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/20 "2012-09-08T15:31:28Z")
> [@SpoilerVirgin](#): > > Except in 1932, 1936 and 1940. Yep. FDR had a long stretch of unemployment numbers. 7 years of bad news until World War 2 got the factories moving with a purpose. The August Jobs numbers did not squash the upturn in the Stock Market. Investors are still bullish. [http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-07/s-p-500-rallies-to-highest-since-2008-on-stimulus-bets.html?cmpid=yhoo](http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-07/s-p-500-rallies-to-highest-since-2008-on-stimulus-bets.html?cmpid=yhoo) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344.md?page=2)