# Job Report Should Help Obama.... \[monthly jobs report thread, July through September\] **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [August 3, 2012, 9:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344 "2012-08-03T21:15:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![newcomer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/e5b9ba/32.png) [@newcomer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/newcomer)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 7:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/101 "2012-10-05T19:26:12Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > The Republicans will continue to campaign on it, so I’m not sure if it matters if they believe it or not. 😉 Actually, the way I see it, is that Democrats are the ones in trouble with this. If we agree that lowering taxes and/or repealing Affordable Care Act does not make difference - WHAT DOES? I mean, once you remove yourself from this partisan bickering, the question remains, what are you doing - or, what have you done, to increase job numbers. CEO’s are almost back at the levels of compensation pre-2008, Government “made” (not printed) money on TARP and auto-industry assistance, dollar is still pretty strong world-wide, oil is cheap… so, what gives? ---
**Author:** ![newcomer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/e5b9ba/32.png) [@newcomer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/newcomer)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/102 "2012-10-05T19:29:45Z")
And “truthers” welcome most distinguished member to their ranks - [Romney backer suggests conspiracy to explain lower jobless rate - The Globe and Mail](http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/us-election/romney-backer-suggests-conspiracy-to-explain-lower-jobless-rate/article4591715/) 😃 ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 7:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/103 "2012-10-05T19:34:05Z")
> [@newcomer](#): > > Actually, the way I see it, is that Democrats are the ones in trouble with this. I’m not surprised you feel that way (even though it makes little sense after your previous post). > [@](#): > > If we agree that lowering taxes and/or repealing Affordable Care Act does not make difference - WHAT DOES? Other than _not_ gutting the federal budget and slashing taxes? Encourage business, look for ways to keep encouraging economic growth and accelerate the recovery. The economy has been getting better slowly, and the answer is to look for ways to sustain that recovery and speed it up instead of ditching every helpful policy we’ve had. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/104 "2012-10-05T19:39:26Z")
> [@newcomer](#): > > Canada produced 52,000 jobs in September with 10 times less population, taxes to choke on and universal health care. As a Republican, it is my duty to twist this as saying that we should have had 520,000 new jobs in September so Obama is underperforming at only a quarter of the job growth we should expect. Also I would like to point out that Canada has high taxes, universal health care AND A QUEEN. We fought a WAR so that we wouldn’t have a queen. Americans bled and died so we can have low taxes and the right to not get insurance. God Bless You All! \ ---
**Author:** ![newcomer](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/e5b9ba/32.png) [@newcomer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/newcomer)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/105 "2012-10-05T19:39:29Z")
> [@Marley23](#): > > I’m not surprised you feel that way (even though it makes little sense after your previous post). 😕 > [@Marley23](#): > > Other than _not_ gutting the federal budget and slashing taxes? Encourage business, look for ways to keep encouraging economic growth and accelerate the recovery. The economy has been getting better slowly, and the answer is to look for ways to sustain that recovery and speed it up instead of ditching every helpful policy we’ve had. So, my suggestion to Obama is to dial Clinton again to help him formulate this in simple terms as only Bill knows. To me, that’s the winning formula given situation. ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 7:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/106 "2012-10-05T19:57:50Z")
And after reading all about “7.8%” all day, I walked to the mailbox. What’s this? A mailer from Mitt Romney: 42 MONTHS OF UNEMPLOYMENT ABOVE 8% A Hammer Blow to America’s Struggling Middle Class! More great timing, Willard. ---
**Author:** ![Fiddle\_Peghead](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiddle_peghead/32/3506_2.png) [@Fiddle\_Peghead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiddle_Peghead)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/107 "2012-10-05T20:34:45Z")
> [@digs](#): > > More great timing, Willard. While giving him all due respect for his debate performance (not the substance therein, mind you), it is getting a bit comical on how Romney just cannot get a break, isn’t it? 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 9:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/108 "2012-10-05T21:26:12Z")
Yeah, if I was a Republican I’d be having anger management issues by now. And if I were one of the fatcats bankrolling Romney I’d have been downing antacids by the handful for the last month or two. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 9:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/109 "2012-10-05T21:27:45Z")
> [@Fiddle\_Peghead](#): > > While giving him all due respect for his debate performance (not the substance therein, mind you), it is getting a bit comical on how Romney just cannot get a break, isn’t it? 🙂 I’ll laugh after he loses. But like I said earlier he seems to be trying to pivot hard to the center _in early October_, and if I were less annoyed by all the prevaricating he and Ryan have been doing, I would say it’s comically late. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/110 "2012-10-05T21:30:38Z")
If the initial polling after the debate (I know, I know, caveat caveat) is any indication, many are buying it. The question is, what affiliation are they? Had they already made up their minds? If not, that is at least not what the President would prefer. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 11:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/111 "2012-10-05T23:08:23Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > If the initial polling after the debate (I know, I know, caveat caveat) is any indication, many are buying it. > > The question is, what affiliation are they? Had they already made up their minds? If not, that is at least not what the President would prefer. Polling only said many thought Romney won, that doesn’t mean they are buying what he is saying. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 11:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/112 "2012-10-05T23:21:12Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > Polling only said many thought Romney won, that doesn’t mean they are buying what he is saying. That’s actually a very good point. Why don’t more polls about debates also ask how and if their answer changes the respondent’s vote? Does that make the sampling too complex? ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/113 "2012-10-05T23:48:52Z")
Contrary to what some people in this thread believe, there is reason to be highly skeptical of these job numbers. The BLS has two separate data points; the establishment survey and the household survey. The establishment survey said the total working age population grew by 206,000 in September while only 114K jobs were added in the same month; that means that there were 92K fewer jobs created than needed to be to match population growth (that results in higher unemployment). The total number of unemployed dropped by 456K last month, meaning 342K people dropped out of the labor force. In other words, for every 1 job created about 3.7 people gave up looking for work. The reason we get such “great” numbers is because the BLS’ household survey states that **873K** jobs were added in September, of which 582K were part time. The BLS surveyed 60K households which would mean that, if you believe those numbers to be true, each household created about 14.55 jobs. Some of you guys may believe that, but I as hell sure don’t. Expect those numbers to be revised downward, especially when most economists were predicting ~114K jobs added and ~8.2% unemployment. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 5, 2012, 11:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/114 "2012-10-05T23:57:57Z")
Your only basis for not believing them is that they are too good? ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2012, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/115 "2012-10-06T00:13:56Z")
So Obama get good unemployment numbers and if this keeps up I suspect Romney is going to have to waste time explaining why his supporters are pushing conspiracy theories. That’s just what Romney needs at this point. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2012, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/116 "2012-10-06T00:23:12Z")
> [@Tarwater](#): > > And when Obama accepted an invitation to the GOP House Issues Conference, and subsequently spent the better part of 90 minutes embarrassing them, that was what, then? Again, if he’s well coached on the issues he can expect to be questioned about, he does fine. The problem with the first debate is that Romney raised issues he was completely unprepared to rebut. Also, most Congressmen are not policy wonks. You could school the average Congressman as well. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2012, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/117 "2012-10-06T00:23:56Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > Your only basis for not believing them is that they are too good? I gave you a good reason to be skeptical which was more than “they are too good”. From July 2012 to August 2012, there were a total of 119K job losses according to household data. From August 2012 to September 2012, there were 873K jobs added. That 873K jobs added would be the best number dating back to 1983, when the economy was is a far better recovery than we are now. The more plausible explanation is that the 873K is an outlier and is more likely people who already have a job having to take on another job of some sort or the BLS inflating numbers (either that or there are some straight up liars out there who say they are employed when they’re not :p). ---
**Author:** ![AtomicDog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ac91a4/32.png) [@AtomicDog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AtomicDog)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2012, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/118 "2012-10-06T00:27:26Z")
The Republicans say that 7.8% unemployment isn’t that much of an improvement, it’s not that big a deal. Then they say that 7.8% figure is a lie, anyway. Now, if it’s a lie, then it _is_ that big a deal. If it’s _not_ that big a deal, then it’s not a lie (there’s no reason to lie about such a puny improvement.) Which one is it, Pubbies? ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2012, 12:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/119 "2012-10-06T00:27:58Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > I gave you a good reason to be skeptical which was more than “they are too good”. From July 2012 to August 2012, there were a total of 119K job losses according to household data. From August 2012 to September 2012, there were 873K jobs added. That 873K jobs added would be the best number dating back to 1983, when the economy was is a far better recovery than we are now. The more plausible explanation is that the 873K is an outlier and is more likely people who already have a job having to take on another job of some sort or the BLS inflating numbers (either that or there are some straight up liars out there who say they are employed when they’re not :p). You’ve got it all wrong about the household data. [The household survey always finds more jobs than the payroll survey.](http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/10/05/household_survey_vs_payroll_survey_the_household_survey_always_finds_more_.html) And not just a little more- up to a million more. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [October 6, 2012, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344/120 "2012-10-06T00:30:58Z")
Missed edit window: Again, there is also the problem of simple math (or as Clinton would say, #arithmetic). Do you believe that each household surveyed added an average of 15 jobs each during September? > [@iiandyiiii](#): > > You’ve got it all wrong about the household data. [The household survey always finds more jobs than the payroll survey.](http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2012/10/05/household_survey_vs_payroll_survey_the_household_survey_always_finds_more_.html) And not just a little more- up to a million more. What does this have to do with what I said? I didn’t question whether or not the household survey data always finds more jobs than the payroll data (because it usually does). I asked if you believed the magnitude of jobs added per household reported by the survey. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-report-should-help-obama-monthly-jobs-report-thread-july-through-september/630344.md?page=7)