# Job reports effect? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 7, 2012, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015 "2012-09-07T17:29:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015/1 "2012-09-07T17:29:58Z")
Especially since this latest was below expectations, and one will come out _days_ before the election. There are many different tacks you can take with this. Is “disappointment” already baked into poll results or not? Will undecided voters both hear them (though the media and Romney will do their best to publicize them) and base decisions on them (as opposed to their own personal situation)? To what extent can Romney use the information therein without having to go into any specifics on what he would do differently? When will they stop (if indeed they ever start) having a significant impact? ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015/2 "2012-09-07T18:01:32Z")
My take is the jobs report effect is not sufficiently biased in one direction or the other right now. The number is weak, but it is still positive. The official unemployment rate going down is good visually, which means it plays well politically, but underneath there are some troubling signs. So right now I see it as a minor impact. I also think the one right before the election, will have little effect unless it is negative or extremely positive, which I doubt will happen. The one in October the same thing. If the economy is moving along at a slow and steady pace as it has been then its already cooked in. A dramatic change one way or the other could have an affect. I am wondering if the hiring number is down a bit because folks are waiting to see what happens in the election, especially the Congress. My theory is that it isn’t the policies of either party that hurts the economy as much as acrimony and the inability to get anything done. That creates uncertainty, which making business decisions difficult. ---
**Author:** ![2ManyTacos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/2/3da27b/32.png) [@2ManyTacos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/2ManyTacos)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 6:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015/3 "2012-09-07T18:45:54Z")
Eh, unless one of these remaining jobs reports turns out to be astronomically bad, it’s unlikely that any of them will change people’s minds heading into November. It’s been echoed by a number of pundits already, but the lackluster economy has already been factored into everybody’s electoral outlook, and they still generally prefer the President to Romney. If it royally tanks, then yeah, that could damage Obama in November; otherwise, it’s not going to deter anybody who hasn’t already been swayed to the GOP. These latest numbers essentially just preserve the status quo. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015/4 "2012-09-07T19:15:27Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > My take is the jobs report effect is not sufficiently biased in one direction or the other right now. The number is weak, but it is still positive. I… hope you’re being facetious. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 7:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015/5 "2012-09-07T19:29:00Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > I… hope you’re being facetious. Does your gut tell you 96 thousand is a negative number? cause my arithmetic is telling me otherwise. ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015/6 "2012-09-07T19:31:35Z")
The jobs report also revised downward the July and June numbers (which were already pretty bad). When 23 people quit looking for work for every 6 who got hired that does not look good for the unemployment picture. High unemployment dies not bode well for incumbent administrations. ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015/7 "2012-09-07T19:31:39Z")
> [@](#): > > Originally Posted by Gangster Octopus View Post > My take is the jobs report effect is not sufficiently biased in one direction or the other right now. The number is weak, but it is still positive. Agreed. Matches the President’s speech from last night. Things were bad but are gradually improving. We’re on the right track. Etc. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015/8 "2012-09-07T19:31:57Z")
> [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](#): > > I… hope you’re being facetious. Or does your gut tell you that an unemployment rate going from 8.3% to 8.1% is a bad thing? ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015/9 "2012-09-07T19:33:32Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > Does your gut tell you 96 thousand is a negative number? cause my arithmetic is telling me otherwise. In the way that matters, 96,000 is not enough to keep pace with population growth. [Cite](http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/07/news/economy/august-jobs-report/index.html) > [@](#): > > At least 150,000 jobs need to be created each month to simply keep pace with the growing population. The jobs report showed job growth failed to meet expectations. Economists polled by CNNMoney expected 120,000 jobs to be created. Not meeting expectations means the pace of economic growth is worse than anticipated. That’s not good for Obama. The unemployment rate fell because people gave up and stopped looking for work. Not good for Team Obama. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015/10 "2012-09-07T19:36:32Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > Does your gut tell you 96 thousand is a negative number? cause my arithmetic is telling me otherwise. Truthiness in action. ---
**Author:** ![moonshot925](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f0a364/32.png) [@moonshot925](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/moonshot925)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 7:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015/11 "2012-09-07T19:40:51Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Or does your gut tell you that an unemployment rate going from 8.3% to 8.1% is a bad thing? It is because 368,000 people stopped looking for work. > **[August jobs report: hiring down, unemployment falls](https://money.cnn.com/2012/09/07/news/economy/august-jobs-report/index.html)** > > The labor market lost momentum last month as job growth fell to a disappointingly slow pace. But the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. ---
**Author:** ![Iggy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iggy/32/3364_2.png) [@Iggy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Iggy)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 7:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015/12 "2012-09-07T19:45:24Z")
Obama himself said it’s not good enough: > [@](#): > > “Today we learned that after losing around 800,000 jobs a month when I took office, businesses once again added jobs for the 30th month in a row,” Obama said during a speech in New Hampshire after the report was released. " **But that is not good enough. We know that is not good enough. We need to create more jobs faster**. " \*\*Bolding \*\*emphasis mine Same [CNN article](http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/07/news/economy/august-jobs-report/index.html) I previously cited. If the exalted one says it wasn’t good enough, what should the public think? Is Obama lying and it really was good enough? :rolleyes: ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015/13 "2012-09-07T19:47:51Z")
> [@moonshot925](#): > > It is because 368,000 people stopped looking for work. > > [August jobs report: hiring down, unemployment falls](http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/07/news/economy/august-jobs-report/index.html) I just read that a majority of those 368,000 people are between the ages of 16-24… in other words, they’re going to let their parents cover their expenses for now. I doubt the ones that are old enough to vote really give a shit either way about this election. Unless they can vote from their PS3. ---
**Author:** ![GrandWino](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/grandwino/32/67_2.png) [@GrandWino](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrandWino)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015/14 "2012-09-07T19:49:27Z")
Another thing… A majority of Undecideds in this (or any) election are low-information voters. The job reports isn’t even a blip on their RADAR unless it gets mentioned during an episode of Jersey Shore or Here Comes Honey Boo Boo. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015/15 "2012-09-07T19:50:51Z")
Did anyone say it was good enough? ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015/16 "2012-09-07T20:16:10Z")
> [@Bob Ducca](#): > > I just read that a majority of those 368,000 people are between the ages of 16-24… in other words, they’re going to let their parents cover their expenses for now. I doubt the ones that are old enough to vote really give a shit either way about this election. Unless they can vote from their PS3. In fact, this [article](http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/07/news/economy/young-adults-jobs/index.html?iid=Popular) explains how outside this particular demographic things are actually not so bad. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 10:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015/17 "2012-09-07T22:15:04Z")
> [@DigitalC](#): > > Does your gut tell you 96 thousand is a negative number? cause my arithmetic is telling me otherwise. No, it tells me it’s not enough to keep up with population growth nor is it a sign of a growing economy. > [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > Or does your gut tell you that an unemployment rate going from 8.3% to 8.1% is a bad thing? Well, I suppose if everyone umemployed stops looking for work, the unemployment rate will be zero! ---
**Author:** ![Procrustus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/procrustus/32/2994_2.png) [@Procrustus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Procrustus)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 10:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015/18 "2012-09-07T22:22:48Z")
> [@Iggy](#): > > Obama himself said it’s not good enough: > > \*\*Bolding \*\*emphasis mine > > Same [CNN article](http://money.cnn.com/2012/09/07/news/economy/august-jobs-report/index.html) I previously cited. > If the exalted one says it wasn’t good enough, what should the public think? Is Obama lying and it really was good enough? :rolleyes: No, it’s not good enough. But it’s a start, we’re heading in the right direction, and changing to Republican plan now would a disaster. Didn’t you see his speech? He covered all of this. ---
**Author:** ![Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/7ba0ec/32.png) [@Omg\_a\_Black\_Conservative](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Omg_a_Black_Conservative)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 11:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015/19 "2012-09-07T23:10:25Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > No, it’s not good enough. But it’s a start, we’re heading in the right direction, and changing to Republican plan now would a disaster. Didn’t you see his speech? He covered all of this. [The labor force participation rate](http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000/) hasn’t been this low since the around 1978. Yes, it’s even lower than what it was in 2009. By any metric, it’s hard to say we’re heading in the right direction when fewer people are employed or actively looking for a job now compared to any other period of time over the last 34 years or so. (It also doesn’t help that the majority of jobs being created are low-wage jobs such as food service.) ---
**Author:** ![Andiethewestie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ba9def/32.png) [@Andiethewestie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Andiethewestie)\ **Post date:** [September 7, 2012, 11:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015/20 "2012-09-07T23:14:16Z")
There’s a ton of kids who go back to school in August. That’s an obvious reason for the Labor Market shortfall. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/job-reports-effect/634015.md?page=2)