# Joe Arpaio is running for US Senate seat. **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [January 9, 2018, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246 "2018-01-09T16:38:56Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/not_what_you_d_expect/32/3246_2.png) [@not\_what\_you\_d\_expect](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/not_what_you_d_expect)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246/1 "2018-01-09T16:38:56Z")
> **[Trump ally and pardoned ex-Sheriff Joe Arpaio is running for Jeff Flake's...](https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/09/trump-ally-ex-sheriff-joe-arpaio-running-for-arizona-us-senate-seat.html)** > > Arpaio, an immigration hard-liner, was pardoned by President Trump after being convicted of contempt of court. From the link. “Trump ally and pardoned sheriff Joe Arpaio is running for Jeff Flake’s Senate seat in Arizona” I can’t say I’m surprised. What are his chances? ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 4:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246/2 "2018-01-09T16:51:41Z")
We all knew he was going to. And I can’t remember who the likely Democrat was for that seat, but IIRC, it was someone pretty popular. It looks to me like Old Joe is doing his part to help flip the Senate. What I’m more interested in is who’s each party’s understudy for this race? It’s only a matter of time before McCain dies or retires, and we have a special election. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246/3 "2018-01-09T17:04:04Z")
No one better than Arpaio to motivate young and Latino Democrats in Arizona to register and vote. Hateful and horrible man who should be in jail, and would be, were it not for the idiot in chief. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246/4 "2018-01-09T17:07:38Z")
I started [a thread about this](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=834863) a few months ago. At the time I said: > [@What are the odds we see Senator Arpaio?](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-are-the-odds-we-see-senator-arpaio/794953/4): > > … here’s my WAG thinking: > > 1. 10% chance he runs > > 2. (assuming he does run) 25% chance he wins the Republican nomination > > 3. (assuming he wins the R nomination) 40% chance he wins the seat ---
**Author:** ![Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/9de0a6/32.png) [@Ambrosio\_Spinola](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ambrosio_Spinola)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246/5 "2018-01-09T17:14:35Z")
Makes you wonder if Jeff Flake jumped the gun a bit on the retirement. He was clearly going to lose to one lunatic in a primary, but with two lunatics to split the lunatic vote he might well have come out on top. (In Arizona do the top two finishers have a runoff, or does the most votes just win outright? This would obviously be important for Flake to consider as well.) ---
**Author:** ![Chimera](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/8e8cbc/32.png) [@Chimera](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chimera)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 5:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246/6 "2018-01-09T17:20:00Z")
Sheriff Arpaio managed to keep getting elected in that one county, but how popular is he in the rest of the state? Besides the fact that this fucker is already 85 years old. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246/7 "2018-01-09T17:22:55Z")
Not being satisfied with running accused criminals for Senate, the Republicans are moving up to convicted, admitted criminals. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246/8 "2018-01-09T17:23:05Z")
The Good- If he wins the nomination it puts the Arizona seat in play for Democrats The Bad- The fucker might actually win The Ugly- Arpaio’s racism ---
**Author:** ![Bricker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/977dab/32.png) [@Bricker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bricker)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 6:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246/9 "2018-01-09T18:29:25Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > No one better than Arpaio to motivate young and Latino Democrats in Arizona to register and vote. Hateful and horrible man who should be in jail, and would be, were it not for the idiot in chief. Factually incorrect. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 6:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246/10 "2018-01-09T18:40:56Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Factually incorrect. I don’t follow- he was convicted and pardoned. Why would he not have been sentenced had not the pardon been issued? ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246/11 "2018-01-09T18:47:00Z")
When I saw the breaking news banner “Ex-Arizona Sheriff Joe Arpaio” I really, really hoped it would end with “…dead at 85.” If that makes me a terrible person, so be it. If not, there’s plenty of other things that do. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246/12 "2018-01-09T18:47:07Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > I don’t follow- he was convicted and pardoned. Why would he not have been sentenced had not the pardon been issued? Just a guess: I think the expected punishment (had it not been for the pardon) was probation, not jail time. I don’t know though. ---
**Author:** ![VinylTurnip](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/v/b2d939/32.png) [@VinylTurnip](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/VinylTurnip)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246/13 "2018-01-09T18:48:56Z")
Maybe **Bricker** has iron-clad proof that Arpaio is a lovely, wonderful man. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246/14 "2018-01-09T18:56:56Z")
I predict a minimum of three posters that will say “Don’t worry-it can’t happen” then, if he is elected, support him. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246/15 "2018-01-09T19:00:30Z")
So there is the “establishment” Republican candidate (Martha McSally), the one backed by the “Bannon/Mercer” team (Kelli Ward), and Arpaio (will he get Trump’s backing?). Could get rather interesting. Oh, and Chimera asked: > [@](#): > > Sheriff Arpaio managed to keep getting elected in that one county, but how popular is he in the rest of the state? Well, Maricopa county has (including Phoenix) right about 60% of the entire population of the state of Arizona, so if he has a strong base there, well… Could Alabama history repeat? Stay tuned for further developments. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246/16 "2018-01-09T19:00:56Z")
> [@Bricker](#): > > Factually incorrect. Which part? If he wouldn’t have faced jail-time, then I made a boo-boo. In the future, perhaps you could be specific instead of just making blanket and citeless refutations? ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246/17 "2018-01-09T19:01:24Z")
I’d be willing to be that he’s more popular outside of Maricopa County than inside of it. But, since all the other counties combined have only half the population of Maricopa, that may help him very much. ---
**Author:** ![Northern\_Piper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/northern_piper/32/5304_2.png) [@Northern\_Piper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Northern_Piper)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 7:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246/18 "2018-01-09T19:47:55Z")
What is the typical voter turn-out for sheriff election compared to Senate elections? ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246/19 "2018-01-09T20:20:37Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Just a guess: I think the expected punishment (had it not been for the pardon) was probation, not jail time. I don’t know though. So the pardon saved him from {gasp} probation? Why bother? As far as I know, punishment was not yet set. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [January 9, 2018, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246/20 "2018-01-09T20:34:14Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > So the pardon saved him from {gasp} probation? Why bother? As far as I know, punishment was not yet set. Yep. Sentencing had been set for later this month, so he “would” not be in jail (yet) even without the pardon. As for what his sentence would have been… we’ll never know. AFAIK, his offense was not subject to any mandatory sentencing rules. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joe-arpaio-is-running-for-us-senate-seat/806246.md?page=2)