I’ve watched Burrow play. He’s ridiculously good. I was wondering how many also thought so, or whether he was a one year wonder. That was a hell of a year!
Even a “one year wonder” means playing at an extremely high level for 13(?) games, against some of the toughest opponents in the nation, and making very few mistakes (and a lot of great plays) over the course of about…800 offensive snaps. So it is still a large sample size.
Ridiculously good in college does not always translate to the pros. Even with a top program with a tough schedule. The pro game is just so much faster. I think he is about as close to being a lock as has come along in a long time but it’s still not possible to know. But whoever has #1 on draft day would be insane not to take him.
I can’t see the Bengals NOT taking him. We’ve had 9 years of Dalton, he’s had his chances. We need a franchise QB and he seems to possess that “it” factor, along with supreme accuracy, throws such a catchable ball, great pocket awareness and escapability…
The only flaw I can see with Burrow is that some of his passes tended to float slowly in the air. The college DBs didn’t seem to be able to get there in time to stop the ball anyway, but in the NFL that could result in getting picked off.
It seems to me that other than the very top level guys (Brady and Peyton Manning as the most recent examples) that the way a QB turns out depends a lot on how good their team is. Take some recent drafts. In 2018 the four QBs that went in the first half of the first round (Mayfield-Browns, Allen-Bills, Darnold-Jets, Rosen-Cardinals) went to bad teams, and so far none of of them have impressed. The guy taken at #32, Lamar Jackson, has done a lot better on a better team. The year before that Mitch Trubisky went to a bad Bears team and hadn’t done much with them. Patrick Mahomes went eight picks later to a much better Chiefs team and that is showing in his production.
My prediction is that Joe Burrow is going to end up more like a Baker Mayfield or Mitch Trubisky rather than a Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson due to his going to a Bengals team that sucks. If somehow a team that is talented but just needs a QB somehow trade up to take him, he would have a much better chance of being a success. Am example of such a team this year would be the Titans.
Imagine Burrow with the Patriots.
shudder
I heartedly disagree. The ONLY reason he was a starter was because the Jags (stupidly) invested so much on him. Had he been a third round QB, he would have been replaced after 6 games.
“Not sucking all the time” should not be the definition of success.
Burrow’s arm and mechanics are already NFL ready. One thing I noticed Burrow do, which is only something NFL QBs can do, is to throw it accurately in tight space between defenders. He did that as well as any QB I saw play all year.
What will be different about the pros is the homework and scouting, the scheming, and the ability of more experienced LBs and defenders to read his body movements and predict what he’s about to do with the ball. The ability to adjust to playing against a squad of 11 elite defenders is a test that all college quarterbacks have to pass, and not all great QBs pass it in pre-season or even in weeks 1-8.
This is also where it’s really helpful if you’re Pat Mahomes and playing on a great team with a great coaching staff, as opposed to Sam Darnold, who may also be an elite QB, but is stuck with the Jets players, the Jets coaching staff, and the Jets front office. Make no mistake about it: “greatness” also requires a wee bit of divine intervention.
I’d say the Bengals certainly veer more towards the Jets than the Chiefs in your example, LOL.
I’m on the “They have to draft him, but I wouldn’t get my hopes higher than I can lift my beer” side of things. Just think back to the last can’t miss LSU product who had one good year, and all the tools.
Maybe it’s because I am tired of all the Future of the NFL bullshit lately about the young guys who “Have it all figured out”. Mahomes has it all figured out, unless he loses. Lamar Jackson couldn’t miss until he did a few weeks ago. Last year Mahomes and Goff were destined to win the Superbowl, but they didn’t. Wentz, Cam, Luck, Mariota, RG III, Ryan, Winston, were all the next big-ass thing, but it actually looks like they are not.
One year looking damn good in College don’t mean shit, when one year looking damn good in the NFL don’t even mean shit.
Now get off my astroturf lawn. :mad:
Really the only thing that sucks about the Bengals is their owner and their linebackers. Their oline showed vast improvement over the last 5-6 games (Mixon ran wild, Dalton had some protection). Jonah Williams is coming back from season-ending injury, as is AJ Green. We have Tyler Boyd and Joe Mixon, a great fron four on defense ans a decent secondary loaded with talent.
We also have draft picks 2-7. Our 2nd pick is 33 and it’s hugely important. They need to go OL or LB there and take the BPA for either of those positions.
I think Zac Taylor’s system with a talented young QB will work in Cincinnati. At this point I just want to win a playoff game!
Ah, one more thing: Mike Brown is going to be forced to spend money in FA and he has a LOT of cap space and has to spend to the floor. The Bengals NEVER sign anyone of note in FA. Ever. Maybe that will change this year.
Do you really think that’s the only difference between Montana and Plummer?
Hey! I resemble that remark!
For once, we may see some parity in the AFC North. Browns may yet rise despite their hollow-promise season, the Steelers are in decline, and Lamar Jackson will come back to earth.
I haven’t watched enough tape to form an opinion, but Pro Football Focus loves him:
“Burrow’s high-end is truly unmatched in our six years of grading. Mayfield did it for more seasons, Kyler Murray did more as a runner, but Burrow flat-out buried elite defenses in a way we’ve never seen done before. He faced four of PFF’s top-10 highest graded defenses in the country in Alabama, Georgia, Clemson, and Auburn. In those games he completed 72.6% of his passes, averaged 9.1 yards per attempt, 381.5 yards per game, and threw 13 TDs compared to one INT. Those are video game numbers against defenses that simply didn’t get passed on otherwise this season.”
Any QB who can rip up the Alabama defense is NFL-ready.
LOL, if anyone, the Browns should know that’s not true.
Boner status: elevated
In all seriousness though, those numbers really ARE frakkin’ ridiculous. I mean…it’s the best statistical season in the history of the game by a QB.