The reason for secession wasn’t a hatred of Lincoln per se as some seem to assume (who, again, was not an abolitionist- he was an anti-expansionist- huge difference). Most southerners couldn’t have picked Lincoln out of a line-up unless the others were all short- he was a one term Congressman from Illinois and that more than a decade before and he was mainly known for a speech (Cooper Union) and a series of debates when seeking an office that wasn’t elected by popular vote and in which he was unsuccessful.
What majorly p.o.d the south was that he won without receiving a single electoral vote from a slave state, while Breckinridge swept the south and won every state in the Deep South and only got 72 of the 303 electoral votes. All of the slave states combined had only 123 votes, and the population non-slave states were growing much faster than those of the slave states. Douglas meanwhile got the second highest number of votes in the election- close to 1.4 million, or roughly 75% of the votes Lincoln got, yet he got only 11 electoral votes, or 6%, of the electoral votes Lincoln got. This is what enraged the South.
Obviously the south wasn’t going to start a war on principle against the Electoral College, but it was what the electoral votes represented. Electoral votes are of course decided by Senate seats plus House seats. In 1860 there were 33 states (West Virginia not having yet split from Virginia). Of those 13 allowed slavery, 20 did not, so if every slave state voted in lock step that would assure only 26 Senate votes against the free states 40, so they were damned there. There were 237 Representatives, and every single representative from every single slave state (not just the Deep South but Kentucky, Maryland, Tennessee [which was more divided than the border states] and Missouri) would have to vote in lock step to win the simplest minority in the House, and then as now this meant crossing party lines several different ways. The south had less than 1/3 of the population already, and with the 1860 Census it was already known that another reapportionment that would greatly benefit the northern states (with their enormous immigration population that was making them grow at incomparably higher rates than the south) and this meant that the slave states, even if every single rep DID vote in unison (which would never happen) would lose any hope whatever of getting enough votes to win a measure.
While large slaveholders (owners of 20 or more) were a tiny minority of the southern population, some things worth remembering:
1- This tiny minority was grossly overrepresented in policymakers, a huge number of whom were either members of this class or were backed by/closely related to people who were
2- Senators were not elected in most states, they were appointed
3- Only men with property could vote in most states and
4- of 3, many who could vote didn’t because of the inconvenience of it
So the interests of the large slaveholders was far more represented in both houses than the interest of yeoman farmers and merchants and townfolk.
So, while Lincoln was not an abolitionist he was an anti-expansionist, which meant that there would not be any more slave states coming into the Union, and there were lots and lots more immigrants coming and there were territories becoming states and the like, so the slave state minority in the House was only going to get smaller and smaller with each election. Add to this that if Lincoln ever DID become abolitionist, or if any abolitionist senator or Representative ever DID propose a bill, the slave states- even if they voted in unison and the Reps most certainly wouldn’t have- had absolutely no chance whatever of defeating it and would have to do whatever the North said.
Now, there were 4.5 million slaves in 1860 (give or take- some non-Census accounts estimate it at closer to 5 million). Assuming an average worth of around $500 and that’s a really really low estimate, you’re talking about billions of dollars in 1860 money, tens of billions in today’s money if you adjust that for the purchasing power of cash and literally trillions if you go by the ratio of slave value to government income. You’ve seen what a trillion dollar shock does to the economy, can you imagine if 1/3 of the population had to sustain a trillion dollar blow all at once? The economy would have been absolutely destroyed and it wouldn’t have just affected the rich. It would have wiped out the planter class instantly, most of whom were already heavily in debt to bankers, which it also would have wiped out. It would have wiped out the yeoman farmers who were in debt to the planter class AND to the bankers. It would have wiped out the merchants, the shippers, the millers, pretty much everybody, and after the Civil War, that’s exactly what happened.
Divorcing ethics from the matter- and I know that’s hard to do, but try- the notion that slavery could legally be ended overnight without the consent of a single southerner was a horrifying notion, and to none more so than the planter class, but the lower socioeconomic classes had reason to fear it too as did many northerners. (It was war contracts that would save many northern manufacturers from going under due to the loss of the southern market.) Most people are simply not going to financially devastate themselves so that transcendantalists can congratulate themselves over tea.
There were voices of reason in the south saying “not yet, Union uber alles, remember Andy Jackson, the Union must be preserved…”. One of their leaders was, many will know, Jefferson Davis, who was very anti secession and gave speeches all over the north and south preaching reconciliation (because again remember that this breach and splitting of the nation’s foundation wasn’t knew- it had been going on for more than a generation, came close to war several times, then President Pierce put duct tape all over it and Buchanan ignored it altogether while Abraham Lincoln was a name you could scream out loud in any city of the south and nobody would have recognized it, so Lincoln inherited a situation.
Anyway, point is don’t do drugs, must run.