# \*\*\*Join the SDMB panel of experts for live debate coverage - 9/26/2016\*\*\* **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 26, 2016, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946 "2016-09-26T17:39:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 36
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2016, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946/701 "2016-09-27T04:29:03Z")
Trump was hurt by the two-way screen. No discipline. His face when HRC dropped the nuclear bomb line his expression was priceless, like he just sucked a lemon. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2016, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946/702 "2016-09-27T04:30:19Z")
Just to start off with my hot take: if 100 million voters watched that, and Trump’s poll numbers go up (or even stay steady!) then I give up. :smack: > [@octopus](#): > > I bet the others wouldn’t fall behind in payments. When terms of a deal aren’t enforced why should US soldiers have to die? Buy some tanks and airplanes and take your sovereignty seriously if you want to keep it. I think this may be the first time I’ve agreed with **octopus** , at least that I can recall. What is the counterargument for NATO countries not being expected to live up to their obligations, while still reaping the benefits of membership? Free ridership is not good. > [@tenacious\_j](#): > > Wow, whatever he’s paying Kelly Ann Conway, it’s not enough. She deflects like Kevin Durant! I have heard a lot of spin, but this girl is a pro. > Someone please hold my hair while I throw up. I didn’t see her tonight, but I have seen her plenty of times before (I actually used to watch her years ago, back around Y2K, on a PBS panel show that was all women discussing politics). She is strong with the deflection power, fo sho. There was someone on Twitter talking about that, something like “you can NOT break her”. > [@DSeid](#): > > They are not the target and winning them not his goal. > > His goal was to simultaneously keep his racist vote revved with “law and order” and “stop and frisk” as the answer, while not saying anything so overtly racist that some college educated suburban Whites, some of whom do view the cities as war zones, are not repulsed. > > Not sure he achieved the goal mind you, but there is no actual intent to reach out to Black voters. The duplicitous and despicable way he talks about race is one of the few signs that he’s not as stupid as he seems. To add to what you are saying, one of his cleverest double messages is “your schools are no good, you have no jobs, your streets are a war zone”. As you say, to center-right suburban whites, this is “aww, he’s concerned about the plight of inner city minorities”. To the “alt-right”, this easily translates as “blacks are stupid, lazy criminals”. ---
**Author:** ![Rick\_Kitchen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rick_kitchen/32/522_2.png) [@Rick\_Kitchen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rick_Kitchen)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2016, 4:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946/703 "2016-09-27T04:30:26Z")
CNN poll gives the debate to Hillary, 62% to 27% [https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/780611403702996993](https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/780611403702996993) ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2016, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946/704 "2016-09-27T04:42:58Z")
From the 538 guys discussion of the devate: > **[What Went Down In The First Presidential Debate](https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/first-presidential-debate-election-2016/)** > > Live coverage of the first presidential debate between Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, moderated by Lester Holt at Hofstra University. > [@](#): > > Seth Masket 10:46 PM > > It’s not obvious to me what the 10-second takeaway moment is from this debate. But there was one rather telling exchange on the subject of nuclear weapons that stood out to me. Holt asked Trump a question about changes to the no-first-use policy on nuclear weapons. Trump’s answer would generously be described as rambling, going from China to Yemen to payments to Iran to Israel. > > Clinton responded with this: > > > [@](#): > > > > ``` > > Words matter when you run for president, and they really matter when you are president. And I want to reassure our allies in Japan and South Korea and elsewhere, that we have mutual defense treaties and we will honor them. It is essential that America’s word be good. And so I know that this campaign has caused some questioning and some worries on the part of many leaders across the globe. I’ve talked with a number of them. But I want to — on behalf of myself, and I think on behalf of a majority of the American people — say that our word is good. > > > > ``` > > In this, she was essentially apologizing to America’s allies for Trump’s words. That’s a bit longer than a classic soundbite, but it could be worked into an effective ad and some devastating news coverage. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2016, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946/705 "2016-09-27T04:43:47Z")
> [@Rick\_Kitchen](#): > > CNN poll gives the debate to Hillary, 62% to 27% > > [x.com](https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/780611403702996993) Don’t forget the [viewer breakdown](https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/780612124598996992) is skewed as announced by CNN. > [@](#): > > · Poll of 521 viewers. > · Skewed D+10, R-2. > · CNN says it’s margin of error of 4.5. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2016, 4:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946/706 "2016-09-27T04:43:57Z")
> [@octopus](#): > > I bet the others wouldn’t fall behind in payments. When terms of a deal aren’t enforced why should US soldiers have to die? Buy some tanks and airplanes and take your sovereignty seriously if you want to keep it. People and nations always looking for a handout instead of contributing their fair share. For the record - there is nothing in the actual North Atlantic Treaty regarding anyone’s financial obligations. The other nations can not be at fault for ignoring “obligations” which are not spelled out in the Treaty itself. The actual text of the North Atlantic Treaty is here. It’s very short. [http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official\_texts\_17120.htm](http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/official_texts_17120.htm) There is nothing in that Treaty about any financial considerations or even what sort of levels of troops and equipment should be maintained. Suggesting that the other NATO members are not meeting their obligations is factually incorrect. The actual funding process for NATO is described here: [http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics\_67655.htm](http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/topics_67655.htm) In 2014, the NATO members agreed that all countries would strive to set their defense spending at 2% of their GDP. At an event called the Welsh Summit, they pledged two things: First, that any country which was currently spending at the 2% mark would maintain that, and second, that any country that was below that mark would move to increase their spending within the next ten years. Again - These are not obligations set out in the treaty. These are guidelines which the member countries agreed to at a recent meeting. Countries that are not currently spending 2% of their GDP are not at fault for ignoring their obligations. But you know what? Even if all the other members of NATO gave us the bird and told us to get the check - we, the United States, would still be obligated fully to honor the mutual defense agreement spelled out in Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. That is _our_ obligation, which we accepted and ratified, and even if everyone else abandons us - America has to stand by our obligations to our allies or else there will be no safety for anyone on this earth. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2016, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946/707 "2016-09-27T04:51:47Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > I don’t think this makes sense. What you describe in your first paragraph contradicts the rest of your post. Getting caught saying stupid things and “out in the weeds” is what makes him not seem like a presidential contender. You’re saying he looked like a buffoon compared to Clinton, who I presume you think looked Presidential. > > I just hope the regression to the mean creates a narrative that Clintons polls are going up. (I’m rather skeptical that debates actually do anything to the polls directly.) What I was saying is that Clinton won the debate, but didn’t beat the spread because the bar was much lower for Trump. That’s a statement about the electorate, not the candidate, But I may have been wrong. The early polling seems to show that Hillary won decisively. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2016, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946/708 "2016-09-27T04:53:03Z")
Now I know who Trump reminds me about with all his sniffing: [https://postimg.org/image/68h8hc7uv/](https://postimg.org/image/68h8hc7uv/) 😛 ---
**Author:** ![MaxTheVool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2016, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946/709 "2016-09-27T04:58:46Z")
I agree that Trump was doing decently for the first 15 or 20 minutes, then fell apart (and glad I was that he did). The one issue where I thought he had a question that Hillary had no answer for was his claim that when we ship products to Mexico, there’s a 15% tax, when they ship products here, there is no tax, and that’s due to NAFTA, and is a bad deal. Is that remotely true? Is it due to NAFTA? What’s he leaving out? Also, at the end, he said something about 600 people who were supposed to be deported, but were made citizens instead, because someone pressed the wrong button. WTF was he going on about? ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2016, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946/710 "2016-09-27T05:01:09Z")
…and Michael Steele, former RNC chair, just calls the debate for Hillary. Just another nail… ---
**Author:** ![psychobunny](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/54ee81/32.png) [@psychobunny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/psychobunny)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2016, 5:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946/711 "2016-09-27T05:26:27Z")
> [@MaxTheVool](#): > > Also, at the end, he said something about 600 people who were supposed to be deported, but were made citizens instead, because someone pressed the wrong button. WTF was he going on about? [This](https://www.oig.dhs.gov/assets/Mgmt/2016/OIG-16-130-Sep16.pdf)-warning;pdf ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2016, 5:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946/712 "2016-09-27T05:29:13Z")
The New York Times calls it for Hillary, but says she and Holt failed to call Trump out on lies, for instance, when he said crime was up in New York City-- actually it’s down. ---
**Author:** ![AnalogSignal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/analogsignal/32/1085_2.png) [@AnalogSignal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AnalogSignal)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2016, 5:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946/713 "2016-09-27T05:30:34Z")
They are calling it the “Hillary shimmy.” As expected, it is a GIF. > I thought it was weird but it seems that people like it. ---
**Author:** ![Trinopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/2bfe46/32.png) [@Trinopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trinopus)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2016, 5:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946/714 "2016-09-27T05:33:13Z")
> [@Aspenglow](#): > > **Trinopus** , if you’re interested, C-SPAN is rerunning the debate now. I know I should watch, but I just can’t bring myself to. (Plus, I don’t watch TV at all these days anyway; any spare time I have, I’m either reading…or typing here!) > [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](#): > > Yes. > > Yes, he did. > > He did that. > > Yes. Grin! Thank’ee! I guessed his handlers would try to get him to do less of that, but it’s pretty much at the core of his personal style of delivery, and not easily changed. ---
**Author:** ![DiggitCamara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/df788c/32.png) [@DiggitCamara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DiggitCamara)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2016, 5:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946/715 "2016-09-27T05:42:32Z")
> [@MaxTheVool](#): > > (snip) > > The one issue where I thought he had a question that Hillary had no answer for was his claim that when we ship products to Mexico, there’s a 15% tax, when they ship products here, there is no tax, and that’s due to NAFTA, and is a bad deal. Is that remotely true? Is it due to NAFTA? What’s he leaving out? > (snip) According to [Slate](http://www.slate.com/blogs/moneybox/2016/09/26/donald_trump_s_economic_plan_is_still_god_awful.html) it’s part of the explanation as to how the Trumpian Economic plan is fair. What actually happens is that most countries have a VAT (Value Added Tax) that is paid for stuff you buy locally but isn’t paid when you export the stuff to the U.S. (or other countries). In other words: if you sell something in Mexico (regardless of where it comes from) it gets a VAT. If you sell it in the U.S., it doesn’t. Somehow (read the article, they don’t understand it either) the Trumpian team believes there is some kind of unfairness involved. > [@Slate](#): > > This is just…wrong. Dead wrong. It’s true that American car companies, to take just one example, have to pay a German VAT when they sell sedans to Berlin or Düsseldorf. But you know who also has to pay that tax? BMW and Volkswagen. Border adjustability just puts everybody on equal footing. Waiving the VAT on exports does the same thing. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2016, 5:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946/716 "2016-09-27T05:46:08Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > What I was saying is that Clinton won the debate, but didn’t beat the spread because the bar was much lower for Trump. That’s a statement about the electorate, not the candidate, I get that part. What I didn’t understand is why you think he came off as a presidential contender. What exactly would have have had to do to not come off like one, in your estimation? ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2016, 5:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946/717 "2016-09-27T05:47:15Z")
The U.S. doesn’t use VAT. We use sales tax. I’m not sure how to compare the two. I would think that a VAT would need to be higher, but I don’t know that for sure. ---
**Author:** ![DiggitCamara](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/df788c/32.png) [@DiggitCamara](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DiggitCamara)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2016, 5:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946/718 "2016-09-27T05:51:31Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > The U.S. doesn’t use VAT. We use sales tax. > > I’m not sure how to compare the two. I would think that a VAT would need to be higher, but I don’t know that for sure. Read the article. The thing they’re writing is that Border adjustability levels the field (stuff that enters the US doesn’t pay VAT either, but whatever local taxes there are in the US. In other words: whatever VAT is levvied in Mexico, stays in Mexico and doesn’t actually influence sales across the border). ---
**Author:** ![Flyer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/flyer/32/7298_2.png) [@Flyer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Flyer)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2016, 5:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946/719 "2016-09-27T05:53:31Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > The New York Times calls it for Hillary, but says she and Holt failed to call Trump out on lies, for instance, when he said crime was up in New York City-- actually it’s down. > [@](#): > > The New York City Police Department, for example, has been trumpeting what it calls record-low crime rates in 2015 — in the commissioner’s media appearances, in a press release and in tweets — without mentioning that homicides, rapes and robberies all rose from a year earlier. > **[How To Make Sense Of Conflicting, Confusing And Misleading Crime Statistics](https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-to-make-sense-of-conflicting-confusing-and-misleading-crime-statistics/)** > > Crime statistics often are confusing, misleading and incomplete — and rarely more so than at the start of a new year, when cities start reporting last year’s c… Oops. Yet another alleged lie turns out to be true. ---
**Author:** ![Lantern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/d26b3c/32.png) [@Lantern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lantern)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2016, 5:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946/720 "2016-09-27T05:58:43Z")
> [@MaxTheVool](#): > > The one issue where I thought he had a question that Hillary had no answer for was his claim that when we ship products to Mexico, there’s a 15% tax, when they ship products here, there is no tax, and that’s due to NAFTA, and is a bad deal. Is that remotely true? Is it due to NAFTA? What’s he leaving out? Yeah this struck me immediately as wrong though I don’t know the specifics of Mexican taxes. Krugman on NYT confirmed that he was indeed wrong on this as well as on Chinese devaluation: > [@](#): > > Trump: well, aside from having just one note – trade, trade, trade – he doesn’t know much. He thinks China is devaluing, when it’s actually supporting the yuan in the face of capital flight. I think he believes that Mexico’s value-added tax is a tariff, when it’s actually just a sales tax levied on domestic as well as imported goods. I think the first few answers on trade were the best part of the debate for Trump politically but in terms of substance he has no idea what he is talking about. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946.md?page=35) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/join-the-sdmb-panel-of-experts-for-live-debate-coverage-9-26-2016/766946.md?page=37)