# Joint Strike fighters still in limbo - Aussies threaten to withdraw - China hones stealth aircraft **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 27, 2011, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487 "2011-07-27T14:56:50Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2011, 2:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487/61 "2011-07-29T14:25:31Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > When the US and the USSR were caught up in wasting 100’s of millions on a pointless nuclear arms race, China did the smart thing, just built enough nuclear weapons so they couldn’t be bullied, and then stopped. Why did the US or USSR ever need 10’s of thousands of warheads when 100 would have devastated every major city and military target of their cold war foes? IIRC, the hard part wasn’t devastating enemy cities; the hard part was devastating the other guy’s nukes, down in the hardened bunkers. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2011, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487/62 "2011-07-29T14:41:38Z")
I always assumed that the two sides assumed that if they launched the other side would also launch long before it mattered. ---
**Author:** ![hansel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/6bbea6/32.png) [@hansel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hansel)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2011, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487/63 "2011-07-29T15:17:27Z")
> [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](#): > > I always assumed that the two sides assumed that if they launched the other side would also launch long before it mattered. Read War, by Gwynne Dyer. It contains an extensive chapter on the evolution of nuclear war theory by Rand analysts, including interviews with some, and makes a lot of the Short version: Everyone quickly realized that a small number of nukes was sufficient for a nuclear deterrent, but then the analysts and the military-industrial complex responsible for nukes and the air force generals would all be out of work. So they started gaming out theories of “winnable” nuclear wars where things like “counterforce strikes” might eliminate the enemy’s nuclear forces. The result was reams of policy papers that met receptive generals and industrialists who expanded nuclear arsenals beyond all reason so they could have “balanced response options” and “selective targeting” and “proportional escalation”. No one really believed that a nuclear war would be anything but both sides launch everything, but it kept a lot of people busy and employed and assisted in the national dick-measuring contest that was the Cold War. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2011, 3:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487/64 "2011-07-29T15:23:04Z")
Ah, another ‘I phear the Dread Red Menace!’ thread. Now we have to contend with not only the Chinese sweeping the seas with their fearsome retread air craft carrier but they have a stealth fighter under development as well?? Where will this end?? I don’t know if anyone linked to more than the OP’s YouTube video of the Chinese stealth fighter (which was set to the catchy theme of Pirates of the Caribbean and showed a fighter that wasn’t very stealthy, considering that all it’s weapons payload were exterior mounted), but [here](http://www.aviationweek.com/aw/generic/story.jsp?id=news/awst/2011/01/03/AW_01_03_2011_p18-279564.xml&channel=defense) is an article on the J-20. First off, as of this article they were at the taxi testing phase, so they aren’t exactly close to putting the things into production. Their target date for a production air craft, according to the article, is: > [@](#): > > The debut of the J-20 was announced in a November 2009 interview on Chinese TV by Gen. He Weirong, deputy commander of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force. The general said a “fourth-generation” fighter (Chinese terminology for a stealth fighter) would be flown in 2010-11 and be operational in 2017-19 So…the Chinese may have a 4th generation stealth fighter in operation by 2017-2019. Maybe. Sadly, the fighter shown in the linked article is BIG…heck, it’s huge. So, it’s not going to be flying off of China’s bright, shinny new retread air craft carrier, which, in fact can’t fly even normal sized fighters. > [@](#): > > The J-20 is a single-seat, twin-engine aircraft, bigger and heavier than the Sukhoi T-50 and the F-22. Comparison with ground-service vehicles points to an overall length of 75 ft. and a wingspan of 45 ft. or more, which would suggest a takeoff weight in the 75,000-80,000-lb. class with no external load. That in turn implies a generous internal fuel capacity. The overall length is close to that of the 1960s General Dynamics F-111, which carries 34,000 lb. of fuel. > [@](#): > > The engines are most likely members of the Russian Saturn AL-31F family, also used on the J-10. The production version will require yet-to-mature indigenous engines. The inlets use diverterless supersonic inlet (DSI) technology, first adopted for the F-35 but also used by Chengdu on the J-10B—the newest version of the J-10—and the Sino-Pakistani JF-17 Thunder. > [@](#): > > The major open question at this point is whether the J-20 is a true prototype, like the T-50, or a technology demonstrator, with a status similar to the YF-22 flown in 1990. That question will be answered by whether, and how many, further J-20s enter flight testing in the next 12-24 months. I know it’s a given around here that all things military are easy, and anyone can do them, but the reality is that it’s harder than it looks, even when you steal most of the technology from someone already doing it (which the Chinese have certainly done). It’s going to take them years to get to the point where they can produce a fighter that’s even in the ballpark with planes the US and Europeans were producing 10 years ago. This isn’t to knock down the accomplishment (even considering the stealing of technology aspect)…China producing a 4th gen fighter is certainly an achievement, when they actually do it (sometime in the next 6-8 years) and put it into production and operation. Not exactly something that is going to cause the US to start shitting it’s pants in obvious fear though…or even cause Taiwan to start being seriously concerned, considering they already have 4th gen fighters. China, right now, is the equivalent of the difference between the American and the UK Navies in 1812…but without even the equivalent of the Yankee Frigate on the Chinese side. Or, to put it another way, if China was building a 6th generation stealth fighter, or a 7th or 8th generation stealth fighter, then THAT would be something to be seriously concerned about…if they already had 4th and 5th gen stealth fighters in production and operation even if they were only in limited numbers. China’s carrier would be more scary if it wasn’t a limited capability retread of an even older Soviet design, and if it was actually IN operation or even conducting sea trials. -XT ---
**Author:** ![mlees](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@mlees](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mlees)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2011, 3:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487/65 "2011-07-29T15:29:00Z")
> [@Zeriel](#): > > The J-20 looks credible, so I’d say the development gap is closer to 15 years, but yeah. China’s not a strategic threat to the US at any predictable point this century. A lot can happen in a decade (when properly motivated). In 1935, the US Navy was the second largest in the world, but even by 1940 it was still flying biplanes off it’s carriers. The US Army was smaller than Greece’s. The Army Airforce had 800 first line combat aircraft in 1939. By 1945, all that was different. I don’t think China has world military domination in mind. Just economic. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2011, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487/66 "2011-07-29T15:37:05Z")
It’s a different world than it was in 1939 though. Even back then it took years to design a new fighter from scratch, test it, and put it into production. Look how long it took the US to build a jet fighter, despite having a working jet engine in the late 30’s and a working prototype in 1942. The difficulty factor today is probably an order of magnitude more difficult than it was then for the US to build large numbers of propeller driven fighters, which we already had quite a bit of experience with, even if we didn’t have a large number in operation prior to the war. -XT ---
**Author:** ![mlees](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/ba8739/32.png) [@mlees](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mlees)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2011, 3:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487/67 "2011-07-29T15:47:53Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > It’s a different world than it was in 1939 though. Even back then it took years to design a new fighter from scratch, test it, and put it into production. Look how long it took the US to build a jet fighter, despite having a working jet engine in the late 30’s and a working prototype in 1942. The difficulty factor today is probably an order of magnitude more difficult than it was then for the US to build large numbers of propeller driven fighters, which we already had quite a bit of experience with, even if we didn’t have a large number in operation prior to the war. > > -XT The F6F made it from contract signing (which is where the government places capability parameters on a design, among other things) to flight deck in two years. (1941-1943) That, admitedly, was exceptional. The F4U took five years, the TBF Avenger took two years, the SB2C Helldiver took three. P38: five years. P47: three years. P51: three years. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2011, 3:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487/68 "2011-07-29T15:53:51Z")
Right, but the hellcat wasn’t exactly a radical new design that the US didn’t have any experience with…more an evolution in design to what we already had either in operation or on the drafting boards. There are so many things that the Chinese have to develop for this fighter to even get to the full out testing stages (and not all of them even have to do with the stealth aspects) that it will be something if they get it into operations and production by 2020…less than that is going to be a huge achievement for them if they make it. -XT ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2011, 3:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487/69 "2011-07-29T15:59:56Z")
It also helps to be at war. Little wars are good for developing bombers and fighters’ strike capabilities, but not so much for developing air-to-air capability. Iraq, for example, had 10 MiG-29s left in inventory by the time we invaded in 2003. 9 of the pilots defected. The only Iraqi fighters that actually challenged coalition forces were flying MiG-21s and -25s, neither of which we needed any additional experience with. China is not at war. ---
**Author:** ![Sablicious](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/bbce88/32.png) [@Sablicious](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sablicious)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2011, 4:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487/70 "2011-07-29T16:30:59Z")
> [@mlees](#): > > […] I’m more worried about our cyber vulnerability, and software is tougher to get the tax paying public to “oooh and ahh” about, so it lags a little. > > Disclaimer: I am not in any way involved with, or knowledgable about, CYBERCOM. They may have things wired tight, but I still worry. 🙂 Your fears may be well-founded – [‘All’ South Koreans hacked by China](http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2011/s3280904.htm). **Scenario:** China use their Lamborghini of a supercomputer to pull a ‘Stuxnet’ on the US military cyberstructure then annex Taiwan, invade Japan and act the foil for North Korea to take back ‘what’s theirs’. All while the US and their score of fancy carriers bob up and down in port like rubber duckies and their duct tapped together F-35s and 22s do Homer J. spins on the tarmac! What do , oh omnipotent technological superpower? **genuflects** ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2011, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487/71 "2011-07-29T16:35:42Z")
Decide to give up acid, probably. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2011, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487/72 "2011-07-29T16:38:39Z")
[QUOTE=Sablicious] Scenario: China use their Lamborghini of a supercomputer to pull a ‘Stuxnet’ on the US military cyberstructure then annex Taiwan, invade Japan and act the foil for North Korea to take back ‘what’s theirs’. All while the US and their score of fancy carriers bob up and down in port like rubber duckies and their duct tapped together F-35s and 22s do Homer J. spins on the tarmac! [/QUOTE] But eventually even hallucinogenics wear off, sadly, so they would have to wake up from the fantasy. -XT ---
**Author:** ![FinnAgain](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/finnagain/32/12500_2.png) [@FinnAgain](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FinnAgain)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2011, 4:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487/73 "2011-07-29T16:53:36Z")
> [@Sablicious](#): > > Your fears may be well-founded – [‘All’ South Koreans hacked by China](http://www.abc.net.au/worldtoday/content/2011/s3280904.htm). Not… not our social networking sites! Next thing you know, China will be controlling who people flirt with and try to fuck. You’ll wake up one morning to find that you have risque photos from your bank’s branch manager and your girlfriend has posted that her relationship status is that she’s engaged to an otter. It will be anarchy. Anarchy!!! ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2011, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487/74 "2011-07-29T17:01:30Z")
You say that, Finn, but isn’t the entire Defense Departments computer system hosted on one of the Facebook server farms?? Including the duct tape maintenance of F-22 and F-35 section, as well as the logistics and deployments of all our carriers that are always in port??? The Chinese could hack that at any time…PLUS cause the chaos of thinking your girlfriend was engaged to an otter (or worse…a PANDA!!). :eek: It could be complete chaos, allowing the Chinese to just annex Taiwan AND physically move Japan onto mainland China in a single stroke! -XT ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2011, 5:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487/75 "2011-07-29T17:03:06Z")
> [@FinnAgain](#): > > You’ll wake up one morning to find that you have risque photos from your bank’s branch manager and your girlfriend has posted that her relationship status is that she’s engaged to an otter. “ **Jenny** changed her relationship status to _it’s complicated._” ---
**Author:** ![Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/cc9497/32.png) [@Capt.Ridley\_s\_Shooting\_Party](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Capt.Ridley_s_Shooting_Party)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2011, 5:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487/76 "2011-07-29T17:10:34Z")
> [@Sablicious](#): > > China use their Lamborghini of a supercomputer to pull a ‘Stuxnet’ on the US military cyberstructure then annex Taiwan The words … I know what they all mean, but not in that particular order. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2011, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487/77 "2011-07-29T17:14:38Z")
Presumably “Lamborghini of a supercomputer” means it’s overpriced, has poor visibility and its manufacturer goes bankrupt every ten years. ---
**Author:** ![Aji\_de\_Gallina](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/aji_de_gallina/32/260_2.png) [@Aji\_de\_Gallina](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Aji_de_Gallina)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2011, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487/78 "2011-07-29T17:14:57Z")
> [@dropzone](#): > > (military aircraft geek) But he’s talking about fighter-bombers! What can be cooler? 😃 Can we get a couple of A-10s just to spicer thing up? And I wouldn’t mind an A-6 for old times’ sake. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2011, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487/79 "2011-07-29T17:37:21Z")
> [@xtisme](#): > > So…the Chinese may have a 4th generation stealth fighter in operation by 2017-2019. Maybe. Sadly, the fighter shown in the linked article is BIG…heck, it’s huge. So, it’s not going to be flying off of China’s bright, shinny new retread air craft carrier, which, in fact can’t fly even normal sized fighters. Minor nitpick, but Varyag was designed for normal-sized conventional fighters, just not many of them–two squadrons of Su-33, by my understanding. As for the J-20, my bet is that it’s going to be in a F-14-type role. Long-range intercept, maybe some low-level-high-speed bombing. ---
**Author:** ![Zeriel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/58956e/32.png) [@Zeriel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zeriel)\ **Post date:** [July 29, 2011, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487/80 "2011-07-29T17:43:09Z")
> [@Sablicious](#): > > **Scenario:** > China use their Lamborghini of a supercomputer to pull a ‘Stuxnet’ on the US military cyberstructure then annex Taiwan, invade Japan and act the foil for North Korea to take back ‘what’s theirs’. All while the US and their score of fancy carriers bob up and down in port like rubber duckies and their duct tapped together F-35s and 22s do Homer J. spins on the tarmac! > > What do , oh omnipotent technological superpower? **genuflects** Well, once I stopped laughing, I realized that we still have B-52s with Harpoon missiles and plenty of regional allies. Add in a few tankers and some F-15/F-22 escorts and that’s a THIRD way Varyag is a nice new reef. The first two being “conventional surface/naval air action” and “submarine strike before anything important happens”, for the record. Also, I’ve worked on the periphery of US military cyberstructure. A Stuxnet-style attack is Just. Not. Possible. without a major penetration of actual on-ground human agents, and even then it’s unlikely. Also, I think you have laughably overestimated the Chinese capability for amphibious landings in both capacity and expertise. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/joint-strike-fighters-still-in-limbo-aussies-threaten-to-withdraw-china-hones-stealth-aircraft/590487.md?page=5)